In this particular psychological response to variables, the person is unable or unwilling to tear themselves away from media coverage of the upcoming election. Ordinary people with no previous history of repetitive behaviors are suddenly checking polling websites every 1/2 hour.

It increasingly looks like this election will be determined by investments on the ground, in local precincts across the country, an area of the campaign Obama has excelled at but that polls don't pick up on.

In the days before the conventions begin, Obama has taken a solid lead in Minnesota, leads outside the margin of error in Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Mexico, and he is within 2% in red Florida, North Carolina, Nevada.