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Pollster Analysis

Is Romney Really Leading by 4 Points in the Swing States?

Alan Abramowitz | Posted 12.16.2012 | Politics
Alan Abramowitz

As if nervous Democrats didn't have enough to worry about, on the morning of the second presidential debate, USA Today and the Gallup Poll released a new poll of 12 swing states that shows Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama by 4 points among likely voters.

All About the Swing: 2008, the First Debate and Now

Simon Jackman | Posted 12.15.2012 | Politics
Simon Jackman

On the eve of the second presidential debate, it is helpful to take stock of what current polling is indicating about the campaign.

Xbox Live/YouGov Polling

David Rothschild | Posted 12.15.2012 | Politics
David Rothschild

So many people today watch TV with a second screen around and we are giving them something fun, related, and meaningful to do with extra energy; we have enacted the promise that is interactive television with the hope that it will lead us towards the future of information aggregation.

Mark Blumenthal

Obama's Battleground Edge Persists | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.15.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- A new national poll showing President Barack Obama with a slight edge over Republican nominee Mitt Romney may give Democrats some cheer ...

Early Voting Rising

Michael P. McDonald | Posted 12.12.2012 | Politics
Michael P. McDonald

More than 800,000 people have already voted in the 2012 general election. A clearer picture of the potential 2012 electorate is emerging in some states where election officials are providing information on who has voted.

Poll of Polls 'Outliers'

Posted 10.12.2012 | Politics

Amy Walter finds fundamentals favoring Obama. Sean Trende sees a race between Barack Obama and gravity. Jay Cost argues that the first debate ...

Adam Carlson

Romney's Lonely Debate Bounce | Adam Carlson | Posted 10.12.2012 | Politics

Mitt Romney's bounce from the first presidential debate in Denver last week has not significantly affected many of the key races that will decide whic...

Swing State Cell Phone Users Pose a Problem For Pollsters

The Huffington Post | Ariel Edwards-Levy | Posted 10.12.2012 | Politics

Half or more of the adults in some key swing states rely mostly on cell phones, according to a study released Friday -- the latest evidence of a growi...

Emily Swanson

Polls Mixed On Debate Winner | Emily Swanson | Posted 10.12.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- Two surveys released after Thursday's vice presidential debate found both candidates made strong impressions on voters, but differed on ...

Forget the Last Two Years of Campaigning, This Is the Time to Pay Attention: How Polls, Ads and Debates Will Win Swing Voters

Nomiki Konst | Posted 12.11.2012 | Politics
Nomiki Konst

Ignore everything about the 2012 election prior to today. Before this point, ignore every poll, every positive and negative ad, every gaffe -- because none of it matters.

Adam Carlson

Will Nancy Pelosi Sit In Speaker's Chair Next Year? | Adam Carlson | Posted 10.11.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- Prospects for the Democrats holding the Senate improved over the past month, but the same cannot be said of their chances of taking back...

Republicans Alienate Women on Abortion, Role of Government

Margie Omero | Posted 12.11.2012 | Politics
Margie Omero

With Mitt Romney's latest double-talk on abortion and Obama's post-debate slump, women are again in the news.

Does Elizabeth Warren Have a Wealthy Woman Problem?

Brian Schaffner | Posted 12.11.2012 | Politics
Brian Schaffner

While Democrats consistently benefit from large gender gaps in statewide races, many expected Warren's candidacy to generate an even larger gender gap.

Mark Blumenthal

Romney Gains In Polls Nationwide, But Obama Holds A Key Edge | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.11.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- With less than four weeks remaining in the race for president, a batch of new polls confirms that Republican nominee Mitt Romney has gai...

Ariel Edwards-Levy

Pollster Says No Chance For Obama To Win Battleground States | Ariel Edwards-Levy | Posted 10.11.2012 | Politics

With a little less than a month until the election, one pollster says the race in three battleground states is over for President Barack Obama. “...

Mark Blumenthal

Gallup Tweaks Its Polling Methods | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.10.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- In a busy week in which Gallup began reporting polling results among voters deemed most likely to vote, Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank New...

Dramatic Change in Racial Makeup of Gallup Tracking Poll as Likely Voter Results Begin

Alan Abramowitz | Posted 10.10.2012 | Politics
Alan Abramowitz

Although Gallup does not report the racial composition of its tracking poll sample in its weekly presidential approval results, we can estimate the racial makeup of the sample by extrapolating from the reported approval rating of the president among whites, nonwhites and all adults.

Mark Blumenthal

Romney Surges, But Could Ohio Save Obama? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.10.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- National polls released on Tuesday reinforced the conclusion that Republican nominee Mitt Romney has received a significant "bounce" sin...

Age: A Different Sort of Polling Skew?

Nick Gourevitch | Posted 12.09.2012 | Politics
Nick Gourevitch

Why does age matter? Because almost every publicly available data point shows that age is a significant demographic driver of preferences in this presidential election.

Mark Blumenthal

Polling Switch A 'Wipe Out' Of Obama's Lead | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.10.2012 | Politics

UPDATE -- 1:30 p.m. : On Tuesday, Gallup released its first polling results on the presidential race among respondents they consider most likely to vo...

What's Behind the Surge?

Helmut Norpoth | Posted 12.08.2012 | Politics
Helmut Norpoth

As far as I can tell, the September-October shift is the largest recorded by the Pew trend line. But is it a real surge?

Mark Blumenthal

Manic Monday Polls Mix Messages On Presidential Race | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.08.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- Call it Manic Monday. In one day, Gallup published results of a new national poll of registered voters showing both an even presidential...

Mark Blumenthal

Mixed Messages For Obama In Monday Polls | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.08.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- Early Monday morning, Gallup released the latest results of its national daily tracking poll, showing President Barack Obama and Republi...

Mark Blumenthal

New Presidential Polls Show Dramatic Shift | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.08.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- The surprisingly strong debate performance by Republican nominee Mitt Romney against President Barack Obama last week has resulted in a ...

Mark Blumenthal

Polls Begin To Show Romney Debate Bump | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.06.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- Political junkies have been watching for any signs that the perceptions of a lackluster performance by President Barack Obama in Wednesd...