Prediction Markets

Gamblers' Election-Forecasting Prowess and How They're Betting on the 2010 Races

Keith Thomson | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: Gambling, Polls, Barbara Boxer, Prediction Markets, Elections 2010, Internet Gambling, Intrade, Carly Fiorina, Election Polls, Politics News
Keith Thomson

A professional horseplayer once told me that compared to handicapping horse races, elections were a cakewalk. "Polls can be inaccurate," he said. "Gamblers are accurate or they lose." There's considerable evidence he was on the money.

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How Brokers Became Bookies: The Insidious Transformation of Markets Into Casinos

Ellen Brown | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: Federal Reserve, Social Security, Wall Street Casino, Derivatives, Prediction Markets, Carbon Trading, Business News
Ellen Brown

Casinos for betting on what something will do in the future have been elevated to the status of "prediction" markets, and they can cover a broad range of issues

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AAPOR2009: Christopher Wlezien

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: Aapor, aapor2009, Christopher Wlezien, Prediction Markets, Robert Erikson, Pollster, Politics News
Mark Blumenthal

Yesterday, I also interviewed to Temple University Professor Christopher Wlezien, who long-time Pollster readers may remember from the guest contribut...

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Who's Afraid of the Big Bad Dow?

Max Keiser | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: Obama, Intrade, 401k, Mccain, Palin, Prediction Markets, John McCain, Scare Tactics, Bill Ayers, Business News
Max Keiser

That's right, Americans are mad as hell and they aren't going to take it anymore.

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HuffPost's Real Time Election Trading Odds

Huffington Post | HuffingtonPost's Electoral Prediction Map | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: 2008 Election, Electoral Map, Barack Obama, Prediction Markets, John Mccain Electoral Map, Obama Election Predictions, John Mccain Electoral Predictions, Obama Electoral Tally, Electoral Betting Odds, John Mccain Prediciton Market, Election Betting Odds, Obama Electoral Count, Barack Obama Electoral Votes, Electoral Votes Map and States, Barack Obama Electoral Map, States Electoral Votes, google.com, Intrade Electoral Vote Predictor, Politics News

Trading Markets Swing to Obama! Bookmark this map! Updated hourly until election day. ...

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Market Says McCain is Bonkers, Not Bold

Max Keiser | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: Mccain, Intrade, Prediction Markets, 2008 Presidential Race, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, George W. Bush, Henry Paulson, Congress, Ben Bernanke, Obama, Presidential Debates, David Letterman, Poll Numbers, Business News
Max Keiser

Is McCain experiencing a mere wave of panic selling? Can he rebound from 44? Time will tell, but so far traders don't seem to be buying McCain on this dip.

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October Surprise? How Are InTrade's Investors Positioning For an Osama Capture

Max Keiser | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: October Surprise, Intrade, Prediction Markets, Terrorism, Osama Bin Laden, Business News
Max Keiser

Every time I turn on the news I see something going down at the Afghan-Pakistan border, so I'm thinking the October 2008 Surprise might just be a big one.

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'Prediction Markets' Indicate Chance of Iran Attack Rising

Max Keiser | Posted 05.25.2011

Read More: Iran, Intrade, Bombs, Prediction Markets, Politics News
Max Keiser

Friday night in Paris, I was talking live to Tehran's Press TV about the betting-contract trading on InTrade.com; laying odds on if Bush, or someone else (Israel?) will Bomb Iran by December.

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