Intrade goes to great lengths to transparently define the contracts in their markets for hosts of potential pitfalls: candidate deaths, calling outcomes, etc. The investors in this market are fully aware of what they are trading and the risks associate with that.

While an expert may know more than anyone else in the room, he is unlikely to know more than the room as a whole, to be wiser or cleverer than the crowd.

NEW YORK -- The consensus after Monday night's third and final presidential debate is that Barack Obama was the winner. But the president's victory be...

NEW YORK -- After a confident debate performance on Tuesday night, President Barack Obama's chances of getting reelected got a measurable bump -- at l...

Joe Biden's performance at the debate on Thursday night was warmly received by Democrats -- and now the betting markets are rewarding his running mate...

A professional horseplayer once told me that compared to handicapping horse races, elections were a cakewalk. "Polls can be inaccurate," he said. "Gamblers are accurate or they lose." There's considerable evidence he was on the money.

Yesterday, I also interviewed to Temple University Professor Christopher Wlezien, who long-time Pollster readers may remember from the guest contribut...

Trading Markets Swing to Obama! Bookmark this map! Updated hourly until election day. ...

Friday night in Paris, I was talking live to Tehran's Press TV about the betting-contract trading on InTrade.com; laying odds on if Bush, or someone else (Israel?) will Bomb Iran by December.