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Princeton Election Consortium

Election 2012: The Wisdom of the Crowd

Leighton Vaughan Williams | Posted 01.26.2013 | Politics
Read More: Realclearpolitics, MIchael Barone, Rasmussen, Dick Morris, Elections 2012, Princeton Election Consortium, Gallup, Daily Kos, Nate Silver, Prediction Markets, Susquehanna Polling, New York Times, Betfair, Fox News, Prediction, Fivethirtyeight, Politics News
Leighton Vaughan Williams

While an expert may know more than anyone else in the room, he is unlikely to know more than the room as a whole, to be wiser or cleverer than the crowd.

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Obama's Victory, Never Much in Doubt, Based on Populist Appeal to Swing Voters

Mark Weisbrot | Posted 01.12.2013 | Politics
Read More: Mitt Romney, Elections 2012, Barack Obama, Princeton Election Consortium, Politics News
Mark Weisbrot

Obama's silence on Social Security is a bad omen for the future, where political, media, and business leaders will be pressing for a "grand bargain" on budget issues that will screw the vast majority of Americans. It will take a lot of grassroots pressure to prevent the worst outcomes.

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Who Is Winning the Race for the White House?

Leighton Vaughan Williams | Posted 12.30.2012 | Politics
Read More: Betfair, Fivethirtyeight, Romney, Colorado, Obama, Intrade, Princeton Election Consortium, Political Betting, Nevada, Realclearpolitics, 2012 Election, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Rasmussen, Obama Romney, Obama Romney Polls, Politics News
Leighton Vaughan Williams

The conventional wisdom is that the betting markets are pointing to the re-election of the president while the polls apparently have Mitt Romney as the narrow favorite. So what's the evidence?

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Political Junkies' Newest Fix: Election Modeling

Maria Ehsan | Posted 12.29.2012 | Media
Read More: Polls, Nate Silver, Realclearpolitics, Monkey Cage, fivethirtyeight.com, Public Policy Polling, Elections 2012, Election Modeling, Princeton Election Consortium, Media News
Maria Ehsan

The numerous blogs that review elections start to increase postings on poll statistics this time of the year and really get followers engaged. The lure of a model that can provide probabilities of various election outcomes is downright exciting to wonks.

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