So will 2012 give us some surprises? Almost certainly. The thing about surprises is that they are hard to predict, but the biggest surprise for me would be an election result that looked exactly like the current polling and prognostication predicts.
Conservative blogger Dean Chambers has started a new polling website that he claims takes the slant out of liberal mainstream media polls. The result? Now Romney is leading Obama by 7.8 points.
Why would anyone not involved in politics and media watch last night's address, if the text of the speech was online hours before?