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Realclearpolitics

The Media-Pollster Axis Stole the Election

Llewellyn King | Posted 11.18.2014 | Politics
Llewellyn King

There is no doubt about the public mood. So why didn't the public vote when there was so much journalistic enthusiasm for the election; when an amazing amount of television time, especially on cable, was given to politics; and when radio goes at politics 24-7?

Here's What A GOP-Controlled Senate Should Do

RealClearPolitics | Reed Galen | Posted 08.14.2014 | Politics

At the end of the classic campaign movie "The Candidate," Robert Redford's character, having just won his U.S. Senate race, looks at his campaign mana...

Obama Poll Watch -- April 2014

Chris Weigant | Posted 07.05.2014 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Obama has gained back all the ground he had lost and then some (well, "and then a little bit more" would be more accurate...). He still hasn't quite made it back to where his poll numbers were before the Obamacare website rollout, but if the trendlines continue in May, he is at least within reach of this goal for the first time since October.

Rick Perry Returning To Iowa

RealClearPolitics | Posted 05.04.2014 | Politics

In the latest sign that Rick Perry is thinking seriously about a second presidential run, the Texas governor is heading to Iowa later this month for c...

Obama Poll Watch -- March, 2014

Chris Weigant | Posted 06.02.2014 | Politics
Chris Weigant

President Obama's job approval polling was down a bit last month, ending three months of positive news. He didn't slip back much, but the reversal does bring up a serious question: is Obama stuck in a "new normal" of job approval numbers in the low-40s range?

Is This Iowa's First Female Senator?

RealClearPolitics | Posted 03.09.2014 | Politics

In 1989, a teenage college student from Iowa completed an agricultural exchange on a family farm in the Soviet state of Ukraine....

Obama Poll Watch -- February, 2014

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.05.2014 | Politics
Chris Weigant

For the second month in a row, President Obama had an all-around positive month in the public polls. His job approval average was up, his job disapproval was down, and he has almost completely recovered from the dip his numbers took after the Obamacare website rollout fiasco.

Early House Race Tests Obamacare As Election Issue

RealClearPolitics | Posted 02.23.2014 | Politics

The candidates are Alex Sink, Democrat, and David Jolly, Republican, but Obamacare is on the ballot in a big way in a competitive House race in Florid...

How Targeting Obama Rift Could Backfire On GOP

RealClearPolitics | Posted 02.16.2014 | Politics

Democrats' efforts to distance themselves from President Obama in this midterm election year have been well documented, especially by Republicans, who...

Obama Poll Watch -- March, 2013

Chris Weigant | Posted 04.03.2013 | Politics
Chris Weigant

President Obama lost almost all the ground he had gained late in the 2012 election season. He hit a new low in approval and a new high in disapproval for his second term, as the honeymoon bounce completely evaporated.

Obama Poll Watch -- February, 2013

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.06.2013 | Politics
Chris Weigant

As expected, Obama's "second honeymoon" in the polls is starting to fade. The election is long over, the inauguration is fading from memory, and now the real legislative struggles of Obama's second term have begun.

Obama Poll Watch -- January, 2013

Chris Weigant | Posted 02.06.2013 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Obama's "second honeymoon" period with the public may not last more than a few months, but for now seems to be holding steady. He's in a pretty good position right now in terms of "political capital," but this will likely change as legislative reality sets in.

Obama Poll Watch -- December, 2012

Chris Weigant | Posted 03.04.2013 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Obama is currently enjoying not only a vacation with his family in Hawai'i, but also a "second honeymoon" with the public at large. If history is any guide, the fiscal cliff deal could create another wave of approval on top of the "second honeymoon."

Election 2012: The Wisdom of the Crowd

Leighton Vaughan Williams | Posted 01.26.2013 | Politics
Leighton Vaughan Williams

While an expert may know more than anyone else in the room, he is unlikely to know more than the room as a whole, to be wiser or cleverer than the crowd.

Who Is Winning the Race for the White House?

Leighton Vaughan Williams | Posted 12.30.2012 | Politics
Leighton Vaughan Williams

The conventional wisdom is that the betting markets are pointing to the re-election of the president while the polls apparently have Mitt Romney as the narrow favorite. So what's the evidence?

Political Junkies' Newest Fix: Election Modeling

Maria Ehsan | Posted 12.29.2012 | Media
Maria Ehsan

The numerous blogs that review elections start to increase postings on poll statistics this time of the year and really get followers engaged. The lure of a model that can provide probabilities of various election outcomes is downright exciting to wonks.

Elizabeth Warren Beats Scott Brown In Key Metric

The Huffington Post | Patrick Svitek | Posted 08.28.2012 | Politics

Massachusetts Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren out-raised Republican opponent Sen. Scott Brown by more than $1 million in July and early August, inje...

Obama Poll Watch -- November, 2011

Chris Weigant | Posted 02.04.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

This month Obama poll watchers got some good news, and some bad news. This was capped off by the Washington punditocracy making a stupid comparison between polling for Obama and Carter.

Obama Poll Watch -- June, 2011

Chris Weigant | Posted 09.05.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

[Program Note: Last month, we ran this column four days before the end of May, due to travel plans. We promised we'd update the preliminary numbers i...

Obama Poll Watch -- May, 2011

Chris Weigant | Posted 07.27.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

"What a difference a death makes." President Obama announced at the very beginning of the month that Osama bin Laden was dead, and his poll numbers reacted almost immediately.

Obama Poll Watch -- April 2011

Chris Weigant | Posted 07.04.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

April was a pretty miserable month for Barack Obama, mostly due to the high price of gasoline at the pump. But May is already shaping up to be one of Obama's best months ever, for one very obvious reason.

Obama Poll Watch -- March, 2011

Chris Weigant | Posted 06.04.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

While catastrophic world events dominated the news for most of the month, Obama's approval rating was being hit with a creeping domestic problem -- the rising price of gasoline.

Obama Poll Watch -- January, 2011

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

When taken month-to-month, January, 2011, was Obama's best month of his entire presidency. Not only did he finally get his bump -- but it was a truly significant bump.

Obama Poll Watch -- December, 2010

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Obama once again charted an unbelievably stable month in terms of approval ratings. The mildly good news was in his disapproval rating, which dropped significantly over the course of December.

Obama Poll Watch -- October 2010

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Obama's approval rating ended the month on somewhat of an upswing, at 46.1 percent.Obama's approval rating stayed remarkably steady all month long.