iOS app Android app

State Polls

Final Electoral Math -- My 2012 Election Picks

Chris Weigant | Posted 01.23.2014 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Today, we're just going to throw caution to the wind, and go ahead and predict the outcome of tomorrow night's returns.

2012 Electoral Math -- One Week Out

Chris Weigant | Posted 12.29.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

The real sword of Damocles hanging over the White House right now is this Friday's release of the October unemployment figures. If the numbers are bad, it could give Romney the last-second momentum he needs. If the numbers are good, Obama could waltz to victory.

2012 Electoral Math -- Debate Effects Remain to Be Seen

Chris Weigant | Posted 12.08.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

National polls have pulled back into a neck-and-neck contest. This is all fun for the pundits, who (pre-debate) were on the verge of declaring the race all but over (and, hence, boring), but we hasten to remind everyone that this is not how we elect presidents.

2012 Electoral Math -- Obama Solidifies Bounce

Chris Weigant | Posted 11.26.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Of course, we are heading into debate season, so things could always change, but at the moment it is looking decidedly good for an Obama win. Here's how the election would break down if held today.

2012 Electoral Math -- Pre-Convention Baseline

Chris Weigant | Posted 10.22.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Now is a good time to look at the state of the race, to establish a baseline to measure all this expected frenzied movement.

2012 Electoral Math -- Ups and Downs

Chris Weigant | Posted 10.08.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Since the last time we took such a snapshot, roughly three weeks ago, both candidates have shown some firming up of their positions, but the good news for both candidates is mixed with some softening as well.

2012 Electoral Math

Chris Weigant | Posted 08.25.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

This column series will examine the race between Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama in the only way that is useful for actually predicting its outcome: a state-by-state look at how each candidate is doing. National polling is almost completely useless in election prognostication.

Birther myth strong among Colorado GOP

Brendan Nyhan | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Brendan Nyhan

An update on state polling on the Obama birth certificate myth -- Public Policy Polling has released a preview of a new poll showing that 43% of Color...

More GOP birthers in heavily black states?

Brendan Nyhan | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Brendan Nyhan

Two new polls are out measuring the state-level prevalence of the misperception that President Obama is not a citizen of this country. Tom Jensen of ...

Final Electoral Math -- My Election Picks

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

About the Cartoonist  |  Reprint Policy Because it's Election Day, I'm not going to give a detailed analysis of the past week's polls, as I...

Electoral Math -- Obama Has Closed The Deal

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Welcome to the penultimate Electoral Math column. OK, I admit, I just like correctly using the word "penultimate." Plus, it's fun to say! Try it! If...

Electoral Math -- Obama Holds His Lead

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

More and more, it is looking like Virginia will be the state that decides Election Night in Obama's favor. Sure, it could be Florida or Ohio, but my guess is that the vote-counting is going to take a while in both of them,

Electoral Math -- Obama Lead Insurmountable?

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

It's going to be all but impossible to continue the "we're in a dead heat" nonsense if Barack Obama decisively wins Florida and Virginia when the East Coast returns come in.

Electoral Math -- Obama Landslide?

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

I have to admit, that's a pretty provocative title. And enumerating the poultry before they emerge from the ova is always risky... as the saying goes.

Electoral Math Looking Good For Obama

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Barack Obama has made some gains since last week, to put it mildly. While he hasn't wildly increased his Strong numbers, at least the trend is in the right direction.

Electoral Math Update -- Obama Bounces Back

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Today was a banner day for Obama in the national polls (especially the one that puts him up nine points, 52/43) -- but they are largely meaningless, since that is not how we elect our president.

Electoral Math Checkup -- Obama's Low Point?

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

The national trend for Obama may have turned around in his favor in just the last couple of days. So even though things look grim here, Obama is already starting to bounce back.

MyDD/Huffington Post Presidential Race Rankings

Jonathan Singer | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Jonathan Singer

If McCain is able to merely hold the states that Bush won in 2004 -- and even if he loses one or two of the small or even medium-sized states -- he could still become president.

Electoral Math -- Obama Sure Could Use A Bump

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Obama has slipped below the magic 270 number for the first time since he became the Democratic presumptive nominee, and McCain has just about caught up with him.

Electoral Math Charts Updated

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

It's time once again to take a look at the Electoral College math from state-level polling. Nationwide polls are not completely meaningless, but they are pretty irrelevant as that's not how we elect a president.

Despite Media Narrative, Obama Leads By Over 100 Electoral Votes According To Independent Groups

Mark Nickolas | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Nickolas

With all the breathlessness over the minute movements in the irrelevant national polls, the one thing no one seems to be noticing is that the electoral map is still trending very poorly for McCain.

Charting The Electoral Math Looks Good For Obama

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Chris Weigant

It's been about a month since we last took a look under the microscope at the possible outcomes of the Electoral College vote this November, so it's time for an update.