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Treasury Bonds

What Is Causing the Drag?

Michael Farr | Posted 11.21.2014 | Business
Michael Farr

Using inflation-adjusted numbers, we indexed each component of GDP to 4Q07 levels, beginning with a value of 100 for each. We graphically display the results below, followed by some commentary.

How Prudent Investors Should Handle An Environment Of "Low Returns"

Jesse Felder | Posted 11.17.2014 | Business
Jesse Felder

The bottom line is a 10-year treasury note pays you little more than 2% per year and stocks are likely to earn you even less over the next decade. So what's a prudent investor to do?

Deleveraging Has Not Yet Run Its Course

Michael Farr | Posted 11.06.2014 | Business
Michael Farr

I've argued for some time that the process of deleveraging has yet to run its course. The aggregate level of debt in our economy currently stands at a record high, even though many pundits continue to say that debt levels are much more manageable now as compared to the pre-crisis days.

What Oil Is Telling You

Michael Farr | Posted 10.31.2014 | Business
Michael Farr

The drop in oil (and corresponding drop in energy stocks) is causing much consternation throughout the investment world because it is inconsistent with the narrative articulated by most economists.

Should You Sell???

Michael Farr | Posted 10.17.2014 | Business
Michael Farr

The growth of the American and global economies are the underlying drivers for most all equity investments. A clear discipline, dogged research, and dispassionate assessment are an investor's best friends.

The Buyback Binge

Michael Farr | Posted 10.02.2014 | Business
Michael Farr

Remember, markets go down from time to time, and it's normal. Cool heads and steady hands make money over time.

Another Flash Crash or Market Shutdown?

Michael Farr | Posted 11.11.2014 | Business
Michael Farr

Technology seems to have solved the trade execution issue, so I don't foresee an overwhelming market shutdown. Fidelity now offers an amazing 1 second trade confirmation guarantee.

Loan Me $250,000. Please!

Michael Farr | Posted 11.04.2014 | Money
Michael Farr

I want to buy a house. Would you be willing to loan me $250,000 for 30 years at 4.25 percent? Your answer is crucially important. Before you answer, keep in mind that you will be taxed on the interest you receive.

Margins Remain Suspicious

Michael Farr | Posted 10.22.2014 | Business
Michael Farr

So what are the causes for optimism with regard to future earnings power? Well, the most notable are probably the recent sharp decreases in interest rates and gas prices.

Enough Fed! Give Free Markets a Chance!

Michael Farr | Posted 09.24.2014 | Business
Michael Farr

The widespread expansion of credit to car-buyers, especially to sub-prime borrowers, is beginning to cause some industry observers to cry "bubble." Is this economic progress?

More of the Same

Michael Farr | Posted 08.18.2014 | Business
Michael Farr

As expected, the Federal Reserve stuck to its pattern of reducing asset purchases by another $10 billion. The monthly pace is now down to just $35 bi...

What's Going on With Interest Rates?

Michael Farr | Posted 07.29.2014 | Business
Michael Farr

An aggressive rally in the Treasury market this morning has resulted in the lowest 10-year Treasury yield since June of last year.  Nearly everyone is looking for an explanation as to why longer-term interest rates continue to fall in the face of reduced Fed support and better economic data.  So what is going on?

Tracking Earnings

Michael Farr | Posted 07.19.2014 | Business
Michael Farr

While the overall quality and composition of earnings in the 1Q may have improved somewhat, index earnings growth remains highly dependent on margin expansion.

Economists Are Wrong

Michael Farr | Posted 07.07.2014 | Business
Michael Farr

To boil things down, there are really only two roads we can follow in an environment of such as this. The economy will either muddle along at a sub-par rate of about 2 percent until balance is restored, or we go down the path of running up debt in an effort to produce higher growth rates in the near term.

My Bonds Will Do What When Interest Rates Go Up?

David A. Dedman | Posted 07.02.2014 | Money
David A. Dedman

Most investors own bonds in their portfolios. We buy them for safety and to diversify our portfolios. More and more we are starting to hear about rising interest rates.

Market Noise and Fed Messaging

Michael Farr | Posted 06.16.2014 | Business
Michael Farr

So far this year, the mid-cap banks are outperforming their behemoth cousins, and we now may know why. The big question, though, is how detrimental have these new regulations been to the economic recovery?

Mother Nature Clouds the Outlook

Michael Farr | Posted 04.27.2014 | Business
Michael Farr

How much of the slowing can be blamed on Mother Nature? Nobody knows for sure, of course, but there is enough reason to believe that the brisk pace of growth recorded in the second half of 2013 will not be sustained in 2014.

The VIX Also Rises

Michael Farr | Posted 04.05.2014 | Business
Michael Farr

The more people working, earning income and spending, the greater the economic benefits. The masses move the needle, not the 1% at the top.

China Considers Dumping U.S. Assets

Agence France Presse | Bill Savadove | Posted 01.23.2014 | Business

A US debt default could spur China to diversify its multi-trillion-dollar foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest, analysts say, as Beijing see...

QE Tapering as a Wake-up Call for Emerging Markets

Otaviano Canuto | Posted 01.23.2014 | World
Otaviano Canuto

Emerging markets are not currently as vulnerable as they were in previous moments of global interest rate hikes.

Red Lines

Michael Farr | Posted 09.06.2013 | Business
Michael Farr

The sharp drop in new home sales, weak spending in July, and negative guidance from retailers suggest to us that the recent rise in borrowing costs and energy prices may be starting to take a toll. Will the Fed take this data into consideration?

Fed Driven

Michael Farr | Posted 06.20.2013 | Business
Michael Farr

As the government's role as economic hall monitor is debated and global markets and foreign economies adjust to their own challenges, our focus is on investing in the old-fashioned companies with strong balance sheets, increasing earnings, strong cash flow, and seasoned management teams.

Gorging on Apples

Michael Farr | Posted 05.02.2013 | Business
Michael Farr

The appetite of the fixed income investor is voracious. Apple was the course of the day with the largest issuance of corporate bonds in the history of our republic for $17 billion.

Mark Gongloff

Austerity Alive And Well: U.S. Government To Pay Down Debt For First Time In 6 Years

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Gongloff | Posted 04.29.2013 | Business

Though you may have heard otherwise, austerity is in full force in the U.S., helping the government pay down debt for the first time in six years. ...

Don't Call It a "Bubble," Call It a "Bernanke"

Alex Frey | Posted 06.15.2013 | Business
Alex Frey

There are rising asset prices and stretching valuations. But not because there's a bubble so much as because there is a Bernanke.