BEIRUT -- When the temperature in Dubai drops below 40 C or 110 F there is cause for excitement, because you will be able to walk outside. Of course, if you wear glasses, they may quickly fog up with condensation leaving you blind as a bat. Thus, it is the Gulf pastime to fly away for a getaway to Beirut, Lebanon. It is, however, somewhat of a quixotic choice. Lebanon? Home of Hezbollah? Yet amidst the buildings adorned with marks from bygone bullets and bombs, are the beaches and beating nightlife of Beirut. In fact, Skybar, the city's premier nightspot is rated as one of the world's top clubs.
Overlooking the Mediterranean Sea, wind in your hair, the warmth of sporadic bursts of fire in your face, you are surrounded by countless wonders of the world who spend hours preparing themselves just to have you glance at them so they can look away. Or you could be at Music Hall, where a sophisticated crowd takes in performance after performance of international musical talent, from Italian opera to Cuban jazz to Jerusalem folk songs -- all in one night. And if that doesn't suit you, perhaps you'd want to go to the Riviera beach club and see how dressing up is really dressing down. Yes, summer in Beirut is quite hot. Nevertheless the fall promises to be even hotter, albeit in an altogether different way.
Lebanon has experienced a brief respite starting in May 2008, from violence, strife, and political stalemate. It has not been perfect, but the peace has provided a modicum of long-awaited stability. Come autumn that could all change. The rising tensions between Iran and the US, as well as the upcoming indictments to be presented by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon investigating the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri, could jolt the country back to instability.
The Doha Agreement on May 21, 2008, allowed for the creation of a unity government (one in which Hezbollah was effectively given a veto in cabinet) and the election of President Michel Suleiman. In fact, it was the first time in 35 years that Lebanon had a legitimate head of state at a time of peace; there was no Syrian or Israeli occupation (essentially), or civil war, or foreign-installed President (i.e. Emile Lahoud). The last two years, also allowed Lebanon to somewhat heal from the Israeli onslaught in July 2006, which devastated the South and suburbs of Beirut particularly, and left Lebanon divided. A generally free election in 2009, gave way to a surprising victory for the March 14 coalition spearheaded by Saad Hariri's (son of Rafiq) Future Party, over the Hezbollah-led opposition coalition. What was even more surprising was that both sides accepted the results and formed a unity government (after some Saudi-Syrian conversations of course). Since then, for the first time in their histories, Lebanon and Syria established diplomatic relations (i.e. embassies) with each other.
Yet, the more things change, unfortunately, the more they stay the same. Yes, the 'party' is still ongoing and on the surface Lebanon is changing. For example, I was at a wedding of epic proportions in the Bekaa Valley (a stronghold of Hezbollah) on Saturday, which brought together a Druze bride and a Shiite-Sunni groom. Young people from whatever affiliation or disposition or sect blended together to celebrate into the night. Musicians from France, a singer from New York, and friends from around the world showcased the cosmopolitan side of Lebanon. However, just two days earlier, Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of Hezbollah, had made a stirring speech to the masses in Dahiya and beyond, where he made a claim that has been reverberating in the media for some weeks: several members of Hezbollah will be implicated by the Special Tribunal for Rafiq Hariri's death. What gave people pause, was that he made a pointed reference to current Prime Minister Saad Hariri, revealing personal conversations between the two, where Nasrallah alleged Hariri (the son) told him what the results of the Tribunal would be in advance.
The tinderbox that is Lebanon can explode at any moment. There hasn't been true reconciliation between Sunnis (predominantly supportive of Saad Hariri) and Shiites (predominantly supportive of Hezbollah) since the events of May 7, 2008 when Hezbollah stormed Sunni areas of Beirut in response to the government's decision to crackdown on its telecommunication network. All that is needed is a spark or someone to strike a match, for the country to be engulfed once again in the flames of violence and instability. Since 2005, the Tribunal has been investigating Hariri's death (the father). Now, there is an expectation that the first indictments will be issued as early as September; moreover, in the crosshairs will likely be Hezbollah. Nasrallah has marked a line in the sand saying that no members of his group will be turned over to anyone.
On the other side of the region, the tensions continue to rise between Iran and the U.S.; this will bring further scrutiny on the relationship between Iran and Hezbollah. Due in the fall are reports for UNSC Resolutions 1559 and 1701, which specifically focus on the continuing arms smuggling by Hezbollah (among several other issues). The UNSC may ask UNIFIL forces in the South to take a more direct role in seizing weapons, or investigating arm caches. Already this year, we have seen small skirmishes between UNIFIL and 'residents' of the South. This is likely to get worse in the fall. There is always as well the persistent threat of an irrational escalation by either Hezbollah or Israel with one another, to distract from domestic concerns; thus the situation remains tense on the border.
Does that mean that Lebanon is on a direct path for more internecine conflict? There are signs that the different actors will not want to lead Lebanon to crisis. Hezbollah does not have the same political capital it once did, and it lost considerable popular legitimacy last May when it used its weapons internally. Saad Hariri, himself, has chosen a path of detente, internally and with Syria, which he appears to be committed to despite the circumstances. Finally, Israel is at a weak point internationally, and igniting another conflict with Lebanon would leave it even more isolated.
However, despite the above, the situation is assuredly going to heat up in the coming months. Avoiding conflict, violence and further instability is a priority not just for Lebanon but for the interest of global security. National leaders, regional players and the international community will have to take care not to fan the flames. Unfortunately, as evidenced by Lebanese history, these three groups have often done precisely the opposite.
Follow Taufiq Rahim on Twitter: www.twitter.com/thegeopolitico
Israel turned Gaza into a five mile wide prison camp. Israel built walls, guard towers, and controls who comes and goes into the West Bank. They cut off food and only allow three hours of electricity and water a day. They use cluster bombs against woman and children.
Watch Israel and their right-wing lackeys to vilify Gaza and deflect their Human rights violation.
That is how they have successfully used propaganda for 60 years to deceive Americans.
I would pick up a gun and fight too if I was forced to live like that.
Such as using children as combatants:
* Since the beginning of violence in the Al-Aqsa Intifada in 2000, 29 suicide attacks have been carried out by youth under the age of 18.
* Since May 2001, 22 shootings attacks and attacks using explosive devices were carried out by youth under the age of 18.
* Since the beginning of 2001, more than 40 youths under the age of 18 were involved in attempted suicide bombings that were thwarted.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_suicide_bombers_in_the_Israeli-Palestinian_conflict
Over 10,000 missiles fired from Gaza at civilian targets without even the pretense of having a military objective.
Specifically targeting civilian buses loaded with men, women, and children with suicide bombers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Hamas_suicide_attacks
Killing well over 500 Palestinian civilians for "collaborating" with Israel in extra-judicial executions.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_the_Palestinian_National_Authority
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8622084.stm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Intifada
Bombing a hotel full of people gathered to celebrate passover:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passover_massacre
Palestinians are simply not the guiltless underdogs you make them out to be. They have a strategy of using human shields to create civilians casualties for their cynical political gain:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0wJXf2nt4Y
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J08GqXMr3YE
Talk about human rights!!!!
A very interesting article. Fanned & will follow on Tw.
Indeed, Saad's awareness that the threadbare fiction that Hezbollah did not enjoy the support of the vast majority of Lebanon's citizens had reached to point of being too ludicrous to maintain is probably what is behind his moves to integrate the armed forces of the state of Lebanon with the armed forces that protects Lebanon, despite the opposition such a move will generate in Washington and Tel Aviv, and his developing relationship with the more popular (and more supported) Hassan Nasrallah.
The most likely candidates for irrational actions are not Israel or Hezbollah, they are the extremists who want to propogate their stranglehold on power in Lebanon despite the changing nature of Lebanon, and the US which could indeed pressure the UNSC and UNIFIL to overlook the clauses that put the decision of who is allowed to have weapons in the hands of the Lebanese government, and instead try to disarm Lebanon's protection against attack from the south.
Interesting points though all around.