Sarah Palin Is Now the GOP Establishment

It's the second time this year that Sarah Palin going rogue has paid off. Her "death panels" squeal set Pres. Obama and the Democrats back on their heals, and when she came out to endorse Mr. Hoffman it seemed laughable. It doesn't matter that former Sen. Fred Thompson and his wife were there too. Sarah Palin took the spotlight. If Mr. Hoffman wins tonight, which looks like is going to happen, it will be as if Christmas has come early. Palin's Facebook page sure to be flooded, as the right-wing revolution begins.

In what could be a nightmare scenario for Republican Party officials, conservative activists are gearing up to challenge leading GOP candidates in more than a dozen key House and Senate races in 2010.

Conservatives and tea party activists had already set their sights on some of the GOP's top Senate recruits -- a list that includes Gov. Charlie Crist in Florida, former Rep. Rob Simmons in Connecticut and Rep. Mark Kirk in Illinois, among others.

But their success in Tuesday's upstate New York special election, where grass-roots efforts pushed GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava to drop out of the race and helped Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman surge into the lead on the eve of Election Day, has generated more money and enthusiasm than organizers ever imagined.

Among the stories of Dede Scozzafava's bombshell election bailout came one reporting that Newt Gingrich had tucked his tail in to endorse Mr. Hoffman, after first siding with Scozzafava, as did John Boehner and Michael Steele. Nobody cared; they were too late and too yesterday.

Meanwhile, Frank Rich has analyzed this in terms of what can "bring this president down," which isn't the lesson of the strange Scozzafava tale playing out.

It's the story of 2010 and what this rabid right rev up means for turn out, when many on the left are becoming more and more disengaged, with jobs more of a worry in 2012, with next year all about the bailout/stimulus backlash, while sending Pres. Obama a message. Arianna lays it out.

Besides, anybody who thought an abortion rights, gay rights Republican candidate would be able to survive the current climate was deluding him- or herself, even if Scozzafava's pre-election flame out was not foreseen. But to think these issues are what's driving people is missing the mark by a mile. Scozzafava's eventual loss, or maybe it should be bracketed as the eventual rise of the tea party class candidate, was inevitable. It's been building for months. GOP party bosses are o-u-t, because they've failed to deliver.

Independents are delivering that same message to Obama in droves.

It's foreshadowing of what I've been talking about since this summer. The far right's resurgence in a way we haven't seen in a very long time. Whether it's bailout blues, or the revving up of the right wing engine fueled by wingnut radio, egged on by Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck, with a lot of help from Fox, this is a movement of emotion, the most powerful kind you can have in politics.

It's not surprising that as you read the articles about this Republican earthquake, few are focusing the kleig lights where they belong. Sarah Palin stood up and out and boldly backed Hoffman long before it was clear it was a very good idea. Tim Pawlenty was there too, but he's not got the "it" factor of Sarah, who is first among people who matter.

What does it all mean?

Expect more of it from the far right, with moderate Republicans further on the outs than ever. But that's not what should worry Democrats.

Looking at 2010 it means that our opponents will be emotionally engaged, attached to outcome, and inspired to support more tea party activist types at all costs. They aren't calculating who can win as much as they are the type of person they want in office who they're willing to back to make a statement, even if the person loses. Call it the realignment of the right.

The most committed wins and in off-year elections that goes double. If the health care bill looks as bad as the CBO's latest reviews are saying, with premiums being higher, it's going to add even more fodder, because people on the left will disengage further. Add wingnut radio, which is the best GOTV engine in American politics, and you've got a political adrenaline pumped right into the voting disgruntled. Because conservatives won't just be voting against all things Obama; they will be voting for tea party candidates that talk their language, no matter how alien it is to independents and others looking to register their complaints next year.

Amidst it all, Sarah Palin stands tallest, even as she's still impossible to take seriously, with independents, now the largest political block in America, laughing. But she understands the pulse of the pissed off on her side, which is good for her. The dangerous point is that the right isn't the only group ticked off. Unfortunately for Sarah, her credibility to lead among independents and other voters remains non-existent, which is good news for us, at least for 2012. Because the same people who picked Hoffman run the GOP presidential primary system and there is no evidence whatsoever that they can win nationally. Though as jobs become more of an issue and Mitt Romney steps into the 2011 limelight, who knows where this could end, as kitchen table issues could be the 2012 rallying cry, as it's always "the economy, stupid," especially when your checkbook is on fire.

But tomorrow, if Hoffman holds on to win, Sarah Palin will be the story. "The quitter" will be the victor. It's been good not to be governor anymore.

Taylor Marsh, with podcasts available on iTunes.

 

Follow Taylor Marsh on Twitter: www.twitter.com/taylormarsh

Comments

[audadvnc]

The big danger for the Democratic leadership is thinking they should swing to the Right to get voters, thus further alienating the Progressive base they have substantially abandoned since the 2008 election.

Dem's, grovelling to the Right will win you no more votes next year than bipartisanship won you this year. Be strong!

[PikeBot]

This article is pretty funny, in retrospect.

[Taylor Marsh - Huffpost Blogger]

Actually, PikeBot, it's a miracle Hoffman made it as far as he did. Have you seen him speak in public? "Hardball" had a clip of his concession speech on the midnight edition last night. The man has NO TALENT WHATSOEVER. Palin and the tea party activists fueled his ascent in less than 30 days. I assure you Charlie Crist isn't laughing. Neither are the Blue Dogs.

[PikeBot]

His ascent to giving a district that hasn't swung Democrat since the civil war over to the Dems? Yeah, very impressive.

[DocinPA]

I think your analysis is spot on, Ms. Marsh, even with the loss by Hoffman. This was a rejection of a Republican that was to the left of the Democrat. Sarah was slapping the NRCC up side the head. A Hoffman win would have been a bonus but it wasn't the primary concern of this exercise. I strongly suspect that the residents of NY-23 resented greatly the outside interference but this was almost certainly a wakeup call for the NRCC and the NRSC. Good article, Ma'am.

[Taylor Marsh - Huffpost Blogger]

You know, DocinPA, the scary part, besides the fact that Hoffman was politically talentless, is that Palin and her followers don't care if they win. We're seeing coalition building fueled by emotion and passion, which is the most dangerous kind around.

[SimJack]

I can see NY-23 from my house!

[Guscat]

This is an example of how difficult and meaningless predictions are from anyone person.

[Taylor Marsh - Huffpost Blogger]

Heya Guscat. The threat for 2010 remains. In fact, the passion and emotion that fueled Hoffman in the first place will only grow.

[jan4insight]

Yeah, well, Hoffman lost. Glad to see that sanity has prevailed in at least one election this cycle.

Oh, btw, this is the first time a Dem has won that district in what, over 100 years - doesn't sound like too much of a feather in S P's cap.

[Milopundit]

This is sound analysis, I think. Every step Palin takes seems to strengthen her brand, even leaving office. With her followers anyway, who are both legion and loyal. Her chance of claiming the nomination in '12 is slim cuz she seems to alienate the indies, but she nonetheless wields a lot of clout in the party and out of it. Also, the teabaggers are largely constitutionalists and small gov libertarians... not moral majoritarians foaming over abortion or gay marriage, as so many pundits on the left want to believe.

[cal5000]

Well in hindsight--maybe not.

The 23rd just went to the Dems!

Palin picks a loser again.

[ABbabypol]

Let's not kid ourselves into believing that Sarah Palin really had ANYTHING to do with what happened in NY-23. I remind you, Sarah is merely a post on Facebook. She is hiding behind a social networking site, all statements being fed by some other politico. Sarah Palin is merely the public face of whoever is pulling the puppet strings. If Sarah Palin was any kind of true politician, who could legitimately have influence, she would be out there on all the shows, not just Faux Noise, not just posting someone else's comments on Facebook as if they were her own. As long as she hides behind Facebook, and never gets out there on her own to discuss political strategy, or on any network other than Faux she can NEVER be taken seriously! Sarah Palin is a facade, pure and simple!

[suz1941]

I like your comments. The bottom line with Sarah is that she can't get out there and discuss political strategy because she has none. We have all seen what she can't do on her own. She's an empty dress with an even emptier head. Blows my mind that anyone can think she is credible!

[psychodrew]

This time next year, health care will have been passed, as well as some kind of regulatory reform of wall street. Hopefully, we'll get something on climate change, but I doubt that. I think it is a little early to be panicking about next year.

Remember, Mark Warner won in 2001 by a 5 point margin. This was just two months after 9/11, when George Bush was at the height of his popularity. The GOP went on to pick 8 seats in the House and 2 in the Senate in 2002, defying the traditional "party in the White House loses seats in mid-terms" trend. Democrats don't have much to brag about yet, but I think that things will be a little different six months from now.

[Taylor Marsh - Huffpost Blogger]

Hey psychodrew. Thanks for stopping by last night @ my place. Maine was such a downer. And, no panic, my friend, simply preparation for what's in the wind. The right is revved up. The left, not so much, which exit polls proved last night.

[nooel]

Wow, I can't believe how spun off this is. Liberals just don't get that the economy is the albatross around their neck. I voted for Obama in the fall because I thought he was going to fix the mess Bush made, and now that he's just made it.

The tea party goers are upset because it seems like not only are their voices unheard, but its because their intentions are spun so much. This NY race has nothing to do with social issues. Its numbers and math that are the only thing that matters. A year ago, when she was running, I would never have imagined voted for Sarah Palin, because she seemed so inexperienced. But as the left spins the economy, and you see that they are just spinning, you wonder if Palin has been spun. Then you read her own words, and you realize she has been widely spun. To continually discredit the tea party movement, which is not-so-much partisan as anti-Washington, will only align the Democrats with Washington, which will doom them.

[Allan Brauer]

Democrats don't discredit the tea party movement. The teeny-tiny tea party movement discredits itself far better than we could.

We just point and laugh.

[bluebirdtoo]

Excuse me, but exactly where have you read "Sarah Palin's own words"? Surely you realize all of the supposed "op-eds" were written by someone else? Even her Facebook posts are obviously ghostwritten.

Compare any of those writings to her own speeches she has given; they are nowhere near the "word salad" that spews out of her mouth. The opinion pieces and Facebook posts, although factually incorrect at the very least, are coherent and contain complete sentences and actual paragraphs.

Sarah is simply not capable of having, or writing, coherent thoughts.

[ABbabypol]

Fanned, bluebirdtoo!!

[apoyo]

If the Left disengages then they deserve the government they end up with.

[pdog]

While Hoffman will probably win the NY-23 election it is hardly a turning point for Republican­s/Conserva­tives.
Especially when you consider the district has voted Republican­/Conservat­ive for the last 100 years. Considering that the conservatives had to bring out the big guns to win an election that should have been an easy victory for them. I would hardly claim this is an indicator of what will happen in future elections particularly in areas that are more evenly split between party lines.

[Freesia2]

Yes. My first thought here was that the blogger (and I don't mean that as a personal diss - just an observation) is playing into the narrative that Palin hopes to spin. Taking credit for what she actually didn't accomplish is a favored tactic of Alaska's famous Fraud. Don't add to her press,because we all know the MSM won't mention the facts of the case. They prefer sleeping. And ratings.

The Democrat was highly unlikely to win upstate. The GOP candidate was already ahead in Virginia. Sarah will have done nothing but superimpose her image on any victory. (Jack Nicholson before he was "Jack Nicholson!" used to do that. Have his picture put it into the stills from movies so it would look like he'd been a player. Her technique now. Fitting - Sarah is a consumate actress after all.)

[Taylor Marsh - Huffpost Blogger]

There is no doubt that a Rep. was an easy win. But you're missing the action entirely, pdog.

There is no relationship between Hoffman and Republicans on this one. This was a CONSERVATIVE entry who took on the Republican establishment represented by Scozzafava; an establishment who also happens to tip toe lightly around Sarah Palin at most turns. That the big conservative guns, as you put it, particularly Palin came out to TAKE ON Republicans is the point.

[pdog]

Yeah but Hoffman will follow the Republican agenda lock step. Scozzafava wasn't republican enough for them. You can't tell me there is a real difference between Republican­/Conservat­ive.

[thecrossroads]

This is all good for Dems, who would have lost midterm seats anyway, but now have fractionalized Rep. party. Only 19% of Americans self-identify as Rep. and the wingnut fringe may be amped, but they were soundly reputiated in 2008 and Palin has many more negs than positives. Tea Party? They don't even visit the upper midwest or northeast. They are what remains of a party that is way too southern, white, & undereducated. All good for Dems! Lincoln is turning over in his grave sharing the same party with them!!!

[nooel]

This is completely misunderstood. This is a rejection of the GOP party, and an affirmation of true conservative (non-neocon, non-social issues) values of self-reliance. Expect to see many more third party, non-establishment candidates making significant in-roads, and if you conflate southern racist pro-life GOP'ers with this anti-Government sentiment, you will only do so at your own ignorance.

[pdog]

It's hardly a rejection of the GOP more about a candidate who was too liberal for them. While GOP leadership was naive in their choice in Dede Scozzafava in the future you can bet any candidate they pick will have to be more conservative than Dede was.

[TryToBeFlexible]

Yes, this progressive left winger will be VERY disengaged if the cowardly democrats continue to screw up their mandate.

Almost no progress on LGBT rights. Wars still raging. Total screw up on health care reform. Total bailout of the ultra rich, with no help the the majority of Americans. Continued offshoring of all American jobs. Credit Card companies continue to run amok.

I mean, can't they accomplish anything? The progressives got them elected, and they have done nothing but stab the progressives in the back.

Starting with the invitiation to Rick Warren to the inauguration, a slap in the face to millions of LGBT supporters, and a huge sign of weakness to the right wing.

[nooel]

nice, good to see accountability on both sides. "change takes time" may mean lgbt issues get later on the schedule (so political capital isn't burnt), but the theft of this country has largely been allowed by this administration