Odds-Makers in Ireland Betting Palin Out Soon

Only two times in the century leading up to 2004, did the betting markets get American elections wrong. Here's what the bookies in England and Ireland are betting on now:

Sarah Palin may be off the ticket as John McCain's running mate soon. The day before her 17-year old daughter's pregnancy hit the news, odds-makers offered 20-1 that Governor Palin would be off the ticket by the end of the week. At that time, it was merely her inexperience, ethics issues, and possible support for Alaska succeeding from the U.S. of A. that was propelling the exciting Ms. Palin into the stratosphere of unelectable candidates. The next day, the day that the daughter's teen pregnancy was revealed, the odds had changed. A one pound bet would now pay 8 pounds. See here.

So how is this going to unfold with the Far Right who've been so enraptured by McCain's 'bold" choice? Without losing these fickle social conservatives (and their money) altogether? We've seen this movie before. Watch for a tearful interview given by Ms. Palin, in which the Alaska governor explains that she needs to spend more time with her family. No kidding.

Well, what God-loving, gun-toting family values voter would find fault with that explanation?

Every Republican pundit will predictably deny that Palin was pushed out. She'll do the hari-kari thing because, after all, consistent with the RNC theme, Palin is putting country before ambition, they'll tell us. But don't you believe it. Sarah Palin is an ambitious woman and if you don't believe me, you've never been in labor and reported to work three days later. John McCain will push her under the bus but it will look like her decision, and he'll have the social conservatives, and maybe some of the disgruntled Hillary voters, too.

And who will ride to the rescue?

I haven't seen the odds, but I'm a California strategist spending time in Minnesota and it's pretty clear to me that Minnesota Nice is going to be looking darned appealing after Ms. "I-Voted-For-The-Bridge-To-Nowhere-Before-I-Voted-Against-It," is exiled back the frozen tundra. Tim Pawlenty, the very conservative Republican governor of a state that is polling strong for Obama UNLESS Pawlenty is on the ticket, is not only firmly anti-choice, his wife, a retired judge, is a three-fer: She's go professional bona fides, is culturally conservative, and articulate. Take a look at how the odds change if Palin is out and Pawlenty is in.

Democrats: You better start your engines.

Think I'm wrong? Wanna bet?

Read more reaction from HuffPost bloggers to John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate

Comments

[XME]

She's not going anywhere...without her, they can't continually cry sexism and try to rally women, who they clearly think are too stupid to get what they're up to.

[Johnnn]

I'll take that bet! I've gotten two videos e-mailed to me from the McCain Campaign praising Palin as an excellent public servant who is ready to serve! She's here to stay. Good-bye Obama-Biden!

[nobillary1]

John McCain will stick with Gov Palin through thick and thin. He has a very high opinion of himself and his decision-making and will never admit he may have made a mistake.

John McCain will NEVER admit he made a mistake, and that's one of the things that scares the heck out of me, if he is elected in November!

[mlaiuppa]

If she goes, it will be Romney, not Pawlenty.

[wrathofcon]

Wishful thinking, the left is obviously scared of Palin that is why the attacks and lies are so vicious.
If were legal I would take those odds.

[dirtystrat]

Wow is this all you got. Hoping and praying that McCain will dump her soon. Are you worried? I don't think this barracuda is going anywhere soon.

[DennyCrane]

When she drops out, McCain will claim it was sexism from the Obama campaign that forced her withdraw. Much like Clarence Thomas' famous "high-tech lynching" comment was meant to imply that he was attacked for his race. McCain will be free to pick Lieberman.

[Uju]

Seeing how GOP leaders are all over the Media rallying around and defending Palin... Seeing how their so-called socially conservative and religious/upstanding/righteous faithful are so joyously cheering as she parades her pregnant teen daughter and the baby daddy on the RNC convention stage... I'm not so sure the Republicans will force her out. They would much rather protect their lousy choice to the end than admit they were wrong to choose her and be forced to cut loose and change course. These people would rather spend $10BIL a month financing and defending the Iraq War than admit was a mistake and initiate withdrawal. If they can drag us all in the financial and moral gutters with their crazy war, do you think they won't drag the country along with them in this farce to pretend Palin is a worthy candidate?