Questioning Hillary Clinton's 'Victory' in Pennsylvania: The Rush Limbaugh Effect
What if Democratic voters and the uncommitted superdelegates come to learn that Rush Limbaugh had a greater impact on Hillary Clinton's victory in Pennsylvania, and maybe Texas and Ohio, than say, the Reverend Wright, and the so-called 'bitter' comments? Would such a finding influence how voters view the Pennsylvania 'victory?'
If my thesis is correct, you have to ask yourself why so many Republicans want Hillary Clinton to run against John McCain in November.
Here is what we know: Approximately 160,000 Pennsylvania Republicans, Independents and/or new voters registered as Democrats in the months preceding the April 22 Primary. Media reports widely credit the tanking economy, health care crisis, and war in Iraq for Republican disillusionment. But wait--let's look at those very impressive numbers a little closer and compare the re-registration data to say, California. Pennsylvania is the home of approximately 12 million residents while California is the home of almost 38 million residents, over three times the size of Pennsylvania. So we might expect the California re-registration figures to climb to about three times the number of Pennsylvania's re-registrants.
But that isn't the case.
At 170,000 new Democrats, California, the most populous state, and arguably the state widely considered as being the most likely to hop on the latest bandwagon, roughly approximated the Pennsylvania experience, prior to its Primary election on Super Tuesday.
Something's not right.
In the weeks between Super Tuesday and April 22, the date of the Pennsylvania Primary, the circular firing squad occurring between the two Democratic campaigns increased both Democratic candidates' unfavorability ratings, while McCain began to win against both candidates in hypothetical match-up polls, for the first time. If distressed Republicans wanted to bail out of their Party, common sense suggests that they'd have been much more likely to do so after McCain locked up the GOP nomination but before Clinton and Obama began to engage in the 24/7 mud wrestling match leading up to the Pennsylvania campaign.
I've worn a lot of hats in my life, one of which was to serve as a Democratic strategist for congressional and statewide campaigns, and the other, as the Democratic Party's Voter Registration Chair for the most evenly split county in the nine county San Francisco Bay Area. I have conducted over 100 voter registration events in front of area Target stores, Farmers' Markets, at the mall, in schools and colleges and at area train stations in the last several years. I have talked to voters of every age, color, religion, socio-economic class, and gender. I have observed one common characteristic of authentically disillusioned Republicans.
They share with me that they are torn about their decision to register out of the Party of their parents. Almost reverently, they talk about the Republican Party they grew up with, and often articulate a concern that their family not learn about their defection. And in almost all cases, and I've helped hundreds of voters re-register -- they leave their Grand Old Party by first going to Decline to State -- and then, after placing their newly liberated toes in the water by voting Democratic several cycles in a row -- they take the plunge and re-register Democratic.
Very few Republicans boldly go all the way to Democratic in one fell swoop if they are serious about their voting.
I looked for answers. Like most people who've been paid to deliver Democratic strategy, I've mostly ignored self-important Rush Limbaugh's claims that his Operation Chaos is responsible for the large number of re-registrants voting for Hillary in the last several contests. Because I've worked with voters for 8 years and I know first-hand just how difficult it is to get voters to change their parties. But then it hit me when I compared the Pennsylvania numbers to California's. The voters I was dealing with for 8 years were saying good-bye to something that meant something. I sensed sadness, betrayal almost, as I stood by, clipboard in hand, helping voters leave the party of their parents. I have often compared this transition to the changing of one's religion -- it is that difficult when authentically done.
And that's the key. I believe that Rush's Operation Chaos is at play here and authenticity has nothing to do with too may new Democratic registrants in the last contests. This re-registration is, I believe, being undertaken at Rush's suggestion to cynically stretch this contest out -- as long as possible -- so that Hillary's promised kitchen sink theory -- will end up driving both candidates' negatives through the roof so that neither is likely to win against McCain.
Voters in upcoming contests will always be swayed by the outcome of preceding contests. It's human nature to be influenced by the wisdom of those who've gone before us. But if I'm right -- and the outcome in Pennsylvania, and perhaps Mississippi, Texas, and Ohio were influenced by Rush's call to Republicans to keep Hillary in the race longer -- Democratic voters in Indiana and North Carolina, and the states that follow, deserve to know that we're being manipulated.
Cross-posted from The Environmentalist
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If OBAMA wins big today.....
This would not surprize me one bit!......
TRUE BLUE DITTO HEADS ARE IN FOR A SHOCK.....
"Big Timers" HATE McCain and dont want him in the W.H. He will probably be a one termer with a Dem Congress and there is an AWFUL LOT THIS MAN WILL BE HAPPY TO SIGN INTO LAW.......
Global warming IRAQ,HEALT
Hillary on the other hand will PLAY BALL THE RUSH/CORPORATE WAY in the W.H.......
Since my first comments did not make the threshold of relevance to appear. Permit me to say that this debate of lively political banter, to choose a democratic nominee is grasping for intelligent topics to keep the contest interesting.
The author has a desperate desire to dislike Hillary and is trying to fit that obsession into a palable theory. When making a social analysis of Americans, we will see that Americans do not ideologically choose political parties. Definitely not in the way other peoples of the world, or Europeans make their political distinctions and choices. Here in the US wealthy upper class Americans, are beholden to the same political party as the lower income residents in the trailer park community across the train line.
So to give kudos to a bombastic Talk show Host, for changing the voting patterns of entrenched voting Americans is to fly in the face of objective and American social reality.
Please let us all think rationally ..HILLARY CLINTON WINS IND AND NC.. but was not responsible for the late in snow in Colorado or the Tornadoes in the American Midwest or those in the Far East.
Gosh!!! ...it is sickening already.
Of course you're right, Terry.
The Superdelegates should be paying attention. Our party and our democratic system is under attack by the same old fascists who cannot win without foul play, cheating, and law breaking. Your points cannot be discounted by any logical mind.
The only way our nation can step back from the abyss of fascism is to elect the candidate who is unequivocally aligned with the Constitution-not the corporation. Surely, the Superdelegates can see this. With so much free assistance for Hillary from anti-American agitators like Limbaugh, the choice is very clear.
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I don't believe that there was a large number of Republican voters who followed Limbaugh's call. I do, however, believe that there are enough Republican voters and Democrats alike who genuinely prefer to have Hillary in the white house than Obama if given the choice because they do believe that flag pin and Rev. Wright are legitimate issues.
Read this entire article. A quote from a man named Landsberg:
"Anybody who came here illegally should have to leave, and I mean now... If McCain's not offering me that, I don't really see what he's offering. A vote for Clinton at least means you vote against Embowa, instead of voting for McCain, which is a vote against nobody."
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Unfortunately, no matter how post-racial Obama is to many of his supporters, there are enough Americans who think this way. This Landsberg person can't even pronounce Obama's name properly and probably don't care to.
LOL.
You really genuinely think a large number of repubs prefer Clinton to their own candidate?
BAHAHAHAHA
Heres some numbers for ya.
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"a man named Landsberg"
Who gives a crap about a man named Landsberg??!?!
Go ask a Republican if they would like to see Hillary continue to fight Barack for this nomination even though she can't win in delegates. Every one of them would say "yes." So why don't people understand that the Republicans may be helping to keep Hillary in the race?
Republicans for Hillary (until the general election)!
Did you watch CNN this morning where the Indiana radio station stated that Hillary will win Indiana because they prefer to go against her in November. The flag pin isn't legitimate because Bush wears one & look what he has done to our troops. Please pray for them every night - imagine being afraid everyday of our life thinking that it my be your last day on earth. Let Iraq have a civil war, America did. We need to take care of ourselves. Iraq has been liberated - just like a baby learns to walk so should Iraq.
Hey folks the point is not just how many cross-over and newly-registered votes billary got in Demo primaries or how that number is derived, it's the fact that limbaugh and company are openly working to get her in as the Dem candidate - now how disgustingly obvious is that? The former Governor of Virginia - Wilder, I think - said as much on TV the other day, 'Just why do you think Repug-loving pundits are shilling for Hillary? Certainly not so they can support her in November.'
If NC and Indiana are even remotely close, whatever passes for leadership in the Demo Party these days need to sit billary down and show 'em the handwriting on the wall - that unless they wish to go down in history as the husband and wife version of Benedict Arnold, then they better get their minds right, and their asses out of the race. It's OVER people! Now let's get on with taking Obama to the White House and start cleaning up the mess that bush/cheney will have left behind. In fact only a united Democratic party, supporting a single, powerful candidate, will be able to let bush/cheney know that an attempt to attack against Iran - with nothing more than the shit they handed us five years ago - will result in immediate Impeachment proceeding
Hey, Gidget, it's NOT OVER because YOU SAY IT'S over. Junio Hussein Obama is UNELECTABE.
We know that only Hillary Clinton can beat McCain in November. Try reality, you might like it!
Hillary '08!!!
-MS
So, when Obama is the candidate, who are you going to vote for? McCain or Obama?
Republican interference in order to run against Hillary may have started as early as NH. Had she lost NH after coming in 3rd in Iowa, she would have been out of the race. Every single poll showed Obama winning NH by double digits.
Put together these facts: 1) Hillary's vote count (not percentage) in NH was 10% above most polls while Obama's vote count was the same as expected - in other words, her margin of victory did not come from voters who switched from Obama, 2) Hillary won in the cities, 3) only the cities used voting machines, 4) the machines were made by Diebold, 5) Diebold's CEO is notorious for saying he would do anything to help Republicans win, 6) there was no paper trail.
Were he tears in the diner the night before the primary enough to bring out an additional 10% more voters than expected, every one of whom voted for her? Or did a simple software change after Iowa from Diebold count each vote for her 1.1 times?
Question of the day: What impact will Operation Chaos have on the primaries held in Indiana and North Carolina.
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limbaugh's early morning editorial for the commuter crowd went after dem "elites" (obama) for not understanding the economic pain that would be relieved with the gas tax holiday proposed by clinton.
If your theory is correct, it would be a shame if this type of interference changes the outcome of the Democratic candidate nominated. Having said that, we would survive no matter who is nominated and it will be business as usual. However, if your theory is correct and those who voted Dem in the primaries then vote Rep in the GE, then we have a clear case of voter fraud and every single asshole that does this ought to be jailed and fined. This includes the tub of sh*t Limbaugh. The records of those who vote are very accessible. It will be easy to see if this is the case once the GE results are reviewed. Perhaps the RNC and DNC should make it clear that this is a crime and it will be prosecuted.
Impossible to prosecute this. Sorry. You'd have to prove intent, and you'd catch up a lot of well-meaning crossover voters in your dragnet.
Difficult yes. Impossible no. Voter fraud is a crime and intent can be established in the same way it is in every criminal case. Let's see if a guy has voted Rep for last 15 years and this year he votes Dem, and in November he votes Rep again, I think you can put him on the short list. Obliviously, the resources it would take to effectively prosecute a large number of cases would be prohibitive. The key point here is that Limbaugh IS advocating that people actively engage in voter fraud. He is asking them to deliberately commit voter fraud with the explicit intent to game the system and then vote for the Rep in November. His intent is criminal and it should be investigated. Who knows maybe there is already a sting operation in place.
Then why did all of the exit polls in PA say that a large percentage of new/switch-party Dem's voted for Obama? You give Rush way, way, way too much credit.
Absolutely right! And before Rush Limbaugh's so-called Operation Chaos launched, it was Obama's camp that was touting his appeal to Republicans: the Obamacans.
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Why would anything change from this? Why underestimate how many people would do this? We already know repubs are lying cheats who support bush and the war, and they know that they will have a hard time in Nov. Why -wouldn't- they go out and heeds Limbaugh's call?
Certainly -some- voters will genuinely flip for either candidate, but not to the tune of 170k as in PA. Reality and common sense dictate that a large percantage of that WILL BE tainted votes.
WHY would they vote for Obama as a tamper? What exactly would they accomplish? He's already winning so "helping" him only -shortens- the race. But voting Clinton -lengthens the race b/c it gives her ammo to claim he can't get the white voters and gives her more time to kneecap him.
Now, given that this was illegal in OH where investigations for voter fraud were going on, do you -really- think a Chaos voter will tell the exit poller what he is up to?
Lies; Damn lies, and Statistics. All can be manipulated to one's own end, I suppose.
I have to say that today is the first time that I can remember being truly disappointed in reading an Huff post that was just plain wrong-headed and manipulative.
Having lived in PA for many years, and now living in Texas, I can see that Terry's premise is wrong. Occam's Razor tells us that rather than some vast Rush-inspired conspiracy there's probably a simpler explanation between Pennsylvania's and California's numbers of new Democratic voters being registered. Simply put: PA's primary is closed; California's is not. So the more likely explanation is that by the time the primary had moved to Pennsylvania, more voters had been energized to get behind Obama (or to a lesser extent, Hillary) and had to be listed as Democratic members in order to cast a ballot. In contrast, Texas and California allow non-affiliated voters to cast a ballot for either party by simply requesting that party's ballot at the time of voting. Hence, no need to register either way to vote.
Again, I'm very disappointed that Progressives would mis-lead people seeking unvarnished information in such a way. Frankly, the Republican record over the last 8 years should be enough to sink them in November. We don't need people pushing more cock-eyed conspiracy theories.
The problem everyone is having with this is the label REPUBLICAN.
That's all well and good, but that's not the driving force behind this. Limbaugh is a conservative first and a Republican by convenience.
Check the conservative exit polling data and you'll see that Hillary wins them. 10% of the votes in PA were conservatives, she won those 53-47. 22% of the votes in TX were conservatives, she won those 52-45. 14% of the votes in OH were conservative, she tied for those. 24% of the votes in MS were conservatives, she won those 53-43 but was destroyed in the liberal and moderate count, losing 68-32 and 61-36 respectively. You'll have to keep in mind OH and TX were the very first Op. Chaos states and the idea was freshly created. Who knows how these states would've gone without Rush's bidding? But the most telling of all is the Mississippi primary.
The problem isn't that it's giving her the wins, it's that it's giving her LARGER wins that keep her in the race, giving a false sense of "Damn... even conservatives want me!" and broadening her claim of the popular vote.
Oh... and some of them will be state delegates and possibly national delegates to the DNC in August. Think what you want... but it's happening and Hillary is being used.
Rush Limbaugh is the Republican Rev. Wright. He is a political manipulator who has glommed himself into the election process but who retreats into his "entertainer" label when he gets called on it. Rev. Wright is political as well, using the church for his message instead of a radio program. Imagine the coverage if Wright proposed "operation chaos" and suggested that his listeners try to subvert the responsibility of their vote to get a candidate they thought they could beat. Limbaugh is no friend of America.
Whatever effect he has, the one thing for sure is that Rush limbaugh is bad for America. These talk show nuts make a living out of dishonest, spin, lies and hate speech for America. No terrorist organization has ever published as much anti American crap as people like Hannity, Limbaugh, Boortz and Oriely do on a dialy basis.
This mob mentallity, hate group. prasies the most uninformed and uneducated listeners and feeds them with hatred for a large portion of this country. Politics is not supposed to be a civil war, win at all costs, truth be damed contest. The best interest of the people and this country is way down the list of importance for these carnival barker, side show salesman. These people prey on the uninformed and appeal to the worst side of people to gather their mobs. They are dangersous in many ways and this article only addresses one of many ways.
Do not underestimate their effectiveness or the danger they pose to a free society, drag them out into the light and expose them with the edjucations and truth or they will rot out our society from within.
without some kind of demonopolization of talk radio or some new kind of Fairness Doctrine to balance the talk radio landscape, democracy and bipartisanship is impossible.
right now the GP has free reign over the radio airwaves to swiftboat anything and anyone progressive with a coordinated uncontested repetitltion of lies and distortions. and the GOP leadership they make excuses for can just stand aside and giggle while their opponents can't even see who's swinging the invisible 2x4, since they don't listen to it and can't read it anywhere.
until progressives provide themselves with searchable transcripts of the main blowhards, so they can see how the absurd lies limbagh and hannity and co repeat for weeks later end up on mathews and dobbs as truth, they're going to continue to strategize in a political vacuum.
It doesn't make sense Hillary appeals to more middle of the road dems and those voters determine an election, not the extreme left or right. Obama won't win against McCain if he's the nominee.
Thank you for a well reasoned article, Terry Leach. This absolutely fits my observations here in NC. I've heard many independents weighing Clinton vs. Obama, but not a single Republican who is so disenchanted as to actually switch parties. Even Reps who are considering voting against McCain will do so in the general. They still want a say in local and state Republican elections.
And yet there are unprecedented numbers of crossovers here- Republicans who switched parties by April 11, in time to be eligible to vote in our primary. Watch western NC counties for vote tallies tomorrow. If Buncombe, Madison, Haywood, Transylvania, Avery, McDowell, Yancey, or Mitchell counties have huge dem voter turnouts, this is Operation Chaos. These counties have churches where being Republican is a covert requirement. No way have they had any kind of political change of heart.
let's see, rush, who couldn't stop mccain or get his own favorite elected in the rep primaries has enough clout to beat obama in PA, with his multi-million dollars in advertising.
when obama was winning republicans voters, his supporters described it as his cross-over appeal.
Can't really deny the Chaos thing though.
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People were wearing Tshirts I hear in PA.
This was illigal I heard in OH so I am guessing exit polling won't be accurate on it.
And while some on both candidates sides might be "crossover appeal", I should say that where numbers this high of repubs are "changing parties" it cannot be soley that. It is more likely that since the repub candidate was decided eons ago, repubs who know they will be weak in Nov can and will cross over to taint the dem primaries.
They have no motive to vote for Obama. He's already winning and to "help" him only makes the contest go shorter, not longer.
this morning's (Tues) early editorial from rush for hllary's benefit, for the commuters (7-8Am) MST was to attack "elite" dems (read Obama) who don't care about the gasoline tax and what it means to regular guys like rush. and hillary, i guess.
I suspect one reason Rush didn't want McCain as the nominee was that he knew McC wasn't willing---this is one good thing about McCain---to play his pre-adolescent games and use deceptive measures to steal the election.
Note to superdelegates. Obama isn't slipping, republicans are playing dirty tricks with our primaries, one of the benefits of picking your guy early, you can mess with the other party to your own benefit. I think Hillary is loving it, kind of like Nader taking money from republicans in previous elections just to screw up the democratic race. Superdelegates, make it stop. Come out now for Barack and put Hillary out to pasture. Stop the game playing from the republicans, they are loving this protracted race and you supers who are waiting are simply making it worse. She may win Indiana with the help of the republicans and of course the spin won't be truthful about why she won, the fact that rep's are playing the system. No, the media will write the narrative to get more ratings and keep this think going.
Those who follow Rush Limbaugh have no brains and will do whatever that lunatic tells them to do. I totally believe this, as most democrats I know want Obama. Hillary has lost our respect and she is running a negative, mean-spirited campaign that I just can't support.
You have to be delusional to believe that a significant number of people (even dittoheads) would go to the trouble to change their registration to play Limbaugh's game. Most people are busy. They have to make a living, take care of their families, etc.
I'm going to have to see heavy-duty evidence that most of those PA voters change back to rethug before I buy this.
Oh really??
You must have missed this then:
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"Operation Chaos," Rush Limbaugh's campaign urging Republicans to vote for Hillary Clinton in Democratic primaries, has been very effective. It doubled Republican turnout in Ohio and Texas, boosting Clinton and prolonging the Democratic race. But in Ohio, it was also almost certainly illegal."
Read the whole article.
If you don't live among right wing religious conservatives it would be easy to dismiss their ability to spend time doing what they believe is the Lord's work.
Ok, I read it, and where was Ari Melber's PROOF? His article is just more conjecture.
I'm not saying that there weren't some idiots that were playing Limbaugh's game, I just don't believe there were enough to make a difference.
What I find sad are articles like this seeming to give legitimacy to that gasbag's claims that he is effecting the outcome of the Dem primaries. This is exactly what he wants. As usual, Dems keep playing right into the hands of the aholes on the right.
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