Questioning Hillary Clinton's 'Victory' in Pennsylvania: The Rush Limbaugh Effect

What if Democratic voters and the uncommitted superdelegates come to learn that Rush Limbaugh had a greater impact on Hillary Clinton's victory in Pennsylvania, and maybe Texas and Ohio, than say, the Reverend Wright, and the so-called 'bitter' comments? Would such a finding influence how voters view the Pennsylvania 'victory?'

If my thesis is correct, you have to ask yourself why so many Republicans want Hillary Clinton to run against John McCain in November.

Here is what we know: Approximately 160,000 Pennsylvania Republicans, Independents and/or new voters registered as Democrats in the months preceding the April 22 Primary. Media reports widely credit the tanking economy, health care crisis, and war in Iraq for Republican disillusionment. But wait--let's look at those very impressive numbers a little closer and compare the re-registration data to say, California. Pennsylvania is the home of approximately 12 million residents while California is the home of almost 38 million residents, over three times the size of Pennsylvania. So we might expect the California re-registration figures to climb to about three times the number of Pennsylvania's re-registrants.

But that isn't the case.

At 170,000 new Democrats, California, the most populous state, and arguably the state widely considered as being the most likely to hop on the latest bandwagon, roughly approximated the Pennsylvania experience, prior to its Primary election on Super Tuesday.

Something's not right.

In the weeks between Super Tuesday and April 22, the date of the Pennsylvania Primary, the circular firing squad occurring between the two Democratic campaigns increased both Democratic candidates' unfavorability ratings, while McCain began to win against both candidates in hypothetical match-up polls, for the first time. If distressed Republicans wanted to bail out of their Party, common sense suggests that they'd have been much more likely to do so after McCain locked up the GOP nomination but before Clinton and Obama began to engage in the 24/7 mud wrestling match leading up to the Pennsylvania campaign.

I've worn a lot of hats in my life, one of which was to serve as a Democratic strategist for congressional and statewide campaigns, and the other, as the Democratic Party's Voter Registration Chair for the most evenly split county in the nine county San Francisco Bay Area. I have conducted over 100 voter registration events in front of area Target stores, Farmers' Markets, at the mall, in schools and colleges and at area train stations in the last several years. I have talked to voters of every age, color, religion, socio-economic class, and gender. I have observed one common characteristic of authentically disillusioned Republicans.

They share with me that they are torn about their decision to register out of the Party of their parents. Almost reverently, they talk about the Republican Party they grew up with, and often articulate a concern that their family not learn about their defection. And in almost all cases, and I've helped hundreds of voters re-register -- they leave their Grand Old Party by first going to Decline to State -- and then, after placing their newly liberated toes in the water by voting Democratic several cycles in a row -- they take the plunge and re-register Democratic.

Very few Republicans boldly go all the way to Democratic in one fell swoop if they are serious about their voting.

I looked for answers. Like most people who've been paid to deliver Democratic strategy, I've mostly ignored self-important Rush Limbaugh's claims that his Operation Chaos is responsible for the large number of re-registrants voting for Hillary in the last several contests. Because I've worked with voters for 8 years and I know first-hand just how difficult it is to get voters to change their parties. But then it hit me when I compared the Pennsylvania numbers to California's. The voters I was dealing with for 8 years were saying good-bye to something that meant something. I sensed sadness, betrayal almost, as I stood by, clipboard in hand, helping voters leave the party of their parents. I have often compared this transition to the changing of one's religion -- it is that difficult when authentically done.

And that's the key. I believe that Rush's Operation Chaos is at play here and authenticity has nothing to do with too may new Democratic registrants in the last contests. This re-registration is, I believe, being undertaken at Rush's suggestion to cynically stretch this contest out -- as long as possible -- so that Hillary's promised kitchen sink theory -- will end up driving both candidates' negatives through the roof so that neither is likely to win against McCain.

Voters in upcoming contests will always be swayed by the outcome of preceding contests. It's human nature to be influenced by the wisdom of those who've gone before us. But if I'm right -- and the outcome in Pennsylvania, and perhaps Mississippi, Texas, and Ohio were influenced by Rush's call to Republicans to keep Hillary in the race longer -- Democratic voters in Indiana and North Carolina, and the states that follow, deserve to know that we're being manipulated.

Cross-posted from The Environmentalist

Comments

[billreef]

Obama will amaze me if he can compete in Indiana despite the following:

1) Operation Chaos as mentioned above.

2) The Indiana SOS has removed 1.1 Million voters from the registered voter roles. Disporportionately from NW OH (250,000 from 2 counties). On top of the timely SCOTUS ruling which allows unlimited ID requirements and harrassment of voters this does not bode well. Most of these previously registered voters will head to the polls believing that they are registered. This will create havoc at the polls, extensive lines and disenfranchised voters. All these voters who have been polling will now not be voting.

3) Indiana has the same racist footprint as OH, and PA. Perhaps even stronger due to their illustrious past(former home of KKK). These people will probably not tell poll takers their true feeling for fear of exposing there racist tendencies.

I wish it were different but in the words of the immortal Joe Friday: " Just the facts maam"

[stageplay]

The Republicans want Hillary to be the nominee. They want that very much because they know they will have a solid chance to beat her in the general election. There is no political figure today who can unite the Republicans to come out and vote en masse than Hillary Clinton. This is why Rush wants them to vote for her. Hillary is meeting with Rupert Murdoch, Mellon Scaife, Bill O' Reilly. Her husband Bill was on Rush's show. These should be red flags for all Democrats! Wake up. Once she is the nominee do you really think Murdoch, O'Reilly, Scaife, Fox News will support her? Of course not. They want to help her get the nomination because they know they can beat her. And she is doing everything she can to help them in their cause. Think about it.

[coolrepublica]

As always when Republicans cross party line to vote for Barack Obama it's because he is such a wonderful person and the world loves him so. when Republicans cross party line to vote for Hillary it's because she is hated and they want her gone in November.

Again, objectivity R.I.P in Obamaland.

[Aleka4]

And where is your?

What benefit to voting for Obama? Where is the profit in it? What do they gain?

Now, what do they gain from voting for Clinton?

See? apply critical thinking. I know that is unfamiliar to you, but it works.

[abeattie]

Hello Pot. I see you've met the kettle.

[billreef]

Let's spell this out very simply now. They vote for Hillary to extend the process because they know she is shameless and will continue to the ultimate destruction of the party. They are right. She only cares about Hillary. CACKLE>CACKLE> CACKLE>

[DrFinkster]

If you want some evidence look at the Mississippi primary. It lloks like 25% of Hillary voters (10% of all voters) were Republican. Strangely enough, the exit polls show that 20% or so of her voters said they didn't like either candidate at all. Obama's republican voters had no such sentiments. Coincidence?

[Dunnage]

The election will once again be about the economy. And you know damn well the Republicans don't want Clinton.

[AnotherTry]

Yep.

[WordManMI]

It's about time that you folks figured out that despite McCain getting the GOP nomination, Limbaugh is still relevant. Even if his ratings had fallen from his all-time high of over twenty million listeners to around twelve million now, that's still about eleven-and­-three-qua­rters more than the combined efforts of Air America. Just go back and recall how all the media was proclaiming Limbaugh's demise when McCain secured the nomination. What happened next? OPERATION CHAOS!!!

Limbaugh doesn't like Hillary, either, and if she were leading in the campaign, Rush would have his minions voting for Obama. He is doing this, and it is happening, for one simple reason, to prove he is still a power to contend with. There is no doubt that Hillary's recent successes have been aided by Limbaugh. Oh sure, Obama has shot himself in the foot plenty of times now. But back when it really mattered, in Texas and Ohio, Limbaugh rescued Clinton. Had she lost both states outright, her campaign would have been finished. The Democrats and their pals in the MSM do not want to admit that Limbaugh saved her, but he did. It makes more sense than claiming Clinton's "3AM" commercial had any impact.

I've said it before and I'll keep on saying it, no matters who winds up winning in November, the Democrats had better take a long look at how they conduct the primaries and put together a more rational system.

[Aleka4]

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/03/17/many_voting_for_clinton_to_boost_gop/

The Boston Globe wrote an interesting article on the effect of the Limbaugh votes.

When you see that the amount of repubs who switched over to vote in TX exceeds the margin she won the primary by, it is interesting. More interesting to think the caucus "corrected" this taint b/c the repubs clearly couldnt be bothered to caucus for her.

[WordManMI]

Actually, that proves that Limbaugh did have an impact. Without his OPERATION CHAOS, Obama probably would have won Texas outright. And yes, some of Limbaugh's people did go and vote a second time in the caucuses. Two have gone public, as they are now DELEGATES for the DNC!!! Hahaha!!! See you in Denver!

[awmaz]

Clinton has probably received the votes of 200,000 dittoheads so far, with another 200,000 to come.
Before Limbaugh's call for Republicans to foment chaos, Obama was getting over 2/3 of the legimate Republican crossover vote. In Texas Clinton got almost 1/2. she got a lot in Ohio and about 3/4 in Mississippi. At a minimum we shouldn't count these votes in "total popular vote" totals. They won't be there for her in November.

[AnotherTry]

You Obama supporters are just a bunch of wanna-be college republicans having fun with the computer.

He is such a fraud of a candidate that I blame the media mostly for letting this go on so long.

Had the media done its job and exposed the Reverend before iowa, we wouldn't be having this conversation and you all know it.

[AntonBursch]

The 3 big arguements against McCain are null if Hillary Clinton is the nominee.

John McCain

1. Bomb Bomb Iran
2. Stay in Iraq 100 years
3. I don't understand the economy

Hillary Clinton

1. Obliterate Iran
2. Stay in Iraq 50 years(her statements from 05)
3. I don't listen to economists

If Hillary Clinton is the nominee then we lose the 3 most potent arguements against John McCain because they can argue that Hillary is just the same as McCain.

Not that I'm worried that she'll be the nominee considering: one, Hillary Clinton has the highest negatives of anyone to have ever run for President and the highest negatives of a Democrat ever; two, the superdelegates have proven to be anything but brave enough to defy the will of the people.

[harriscrl3]

Rush Limbaugh is talking to superdelegates about how Hilary is the stronger candidate everyone is saying now who Hilary is the stronger candidate. I hope the DNC is paying attention to how is saying Hilary is the Stronger candidate. That must be why they are TOTALLY ignoring her and is instead focusing on Obama. Politics 101 focus on the weak candidate and ignore the strong one.

I hate beinga democrat but what choice do I have. I just hate that thought that Im assoicated with a party that doesnt seem to have a brain.

Carol

[WordManMI]

Limbaugh has not told the super delegates that Hillary is stronger, or a better candidate. He DID deliver a direct statement to the super delegates last week, reminding them that every other time the DNC shafted African-Americans, and they've done so plenty of times, the African-American voting block still remains very consistently pro-Democrat. About the only time they failed to deliver 90% of the vote to the DNC was when George W Bush got 16% of the Africa-American vote in 2004. So, no matter what the DNC does before, during or after Denver, the odds are it won't change the arithmetic at all.

[mspost]

I feel what Limbaugh is doing is not patriotic! He was also talking about having a riot at the

convention. What is patriotic about this madness?

[MikeB08]

Terry, you really need to go outside and get some fresh air. Do you seriously think that Rush Limbaugh has that kind of power. Well, he doesn't.

I'll file that theory in the category of ridiculous along with "9/11 was an inside job" and "O.J. is innocent".

[Aleka4]

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/03/17/many_voting_for_clinton_to_boost_gop/

[going2ireland]

You are a tad naive, aren't you? For every voter who will blindly follow Hillary through the gates of h*ll, there is another voter who will be lead by the nose ring by Rush Limbaugh and just pant in anticipation of his next directive.

[nik12]

Here is my thesis: the tenor of this article is decidedly disingenuous.

First, the author does not provide evidence of how the converted Republicans and Independents voted in Pennsylvania; she assumes, however, that their support was instrumental in Clinton's victory. Second, the author fails to account for the fact that the Obama campaign made a concerted effort to convert Republicans and Independents before the cutoff date in Pennsylvania. The following is a clip from an article that was linked here at Huffington Post in the days before the primary:

"In the days after the March 24 voter registration deadline, state election officials will release figures that measure the almost singular focus of Obama's field operation until then: political conversions. Obama is attempting to crack open Pennsylvania's closed party primary, initiating a program to flip the registrations of independent and Republican voters to Democrat.
The Pennsylvania strategy is aimed at giving Obama a head start by expanding the rolls by tens of thousands of voters ahead of the April 22 election. The final tabulations from the Department of State could offer the first tangible indications of whether Obama can catch Clinton in a state where she holds the advantage."

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9020.html

[Aleka4]

What are you trying to say here?

Fact: 170k repubs switched partied
Fact: Limbaugh urged them to in order to prolong the primaries.

Probability based on exit polls: they DID vote for Clinton in TX and OH, and in OH it was illegal.
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/03/17/many_voting_for_clinton_to_boost_gop/

It makes no sense for the repubs to vote Obama for mischeif.

-Had he won, the contest would be over as he is winning. This does not accoimplish their aim of prolonging the contest.
-Had he lost by a larger margin, it is still the staus quo.

There is no point at all for them to vote him for mischief or tampering. The only benefit was to vote Clinton and give her more time to kneecap him.

[Cherlesq]

And, Hillary thinks she's "winning" all by her lonesome. Live by the sword die by the sword. The repubs have always been better at this king of perfect deceit. Too bad for all of us.

[Aleka4]

Oh I doubt she does think she is winning by her lonesome.

I think she doesn't care.

If she is willing to kneecap the entore party, she wouldn't care if repubs are puushing her or not. Whatever method works.

[olivia]

Superdelegates, pay attention.

Now that you know about this, you should weight your position slightly toward Obama, because part of the support for Hillary is Republican meddling in the democratic process.

[lbrillante]

I wish we could know.... I wish I could know that there was no cheating in the primaries... I like the caucuses because people have to be there and witness the results... If people tried to cheat when reporting the results they would have every single voter as a witness to what happened in the caucus. In a primary we don't know.
To try to know why people are voting the way they have... hard to say.

It's very disheartening what's going on in this race that has gotten so many americans to hope and get involved.

Frankly it could be the end of the democratic party if they decide to give credit for tainted elections against their previous ruling that the elections would not be counted because they violated party rules. It seems to me to be a legal mess because it seems americans could file lawsuits for so many reasons from so many angles. I can't wait to see how the rules committee decides to handle the situation. Why would any of us ever care or trust their rulings in the future if they change their ruling in this case. Clinton wants and exception and if she gets it so will every state and every candidate in every circumstance in the future.

I am sure it fills the far right with glee to see what is happening to the democratic party.

I am praying that Senator Obama wins Indiana and North Carolina tomorrow.

[WordManMI]

Caucuses are ridiculous and not very honest either. In Iowa, you don't even have to be a resident of the state to participate in it! The whole process is tainted and flawed and needs to be scrapped!

It won't be Limbaugh's meddling that ends the Democratic Party, it will be their own stupid rules and disenfranchisement of the 4th and 8th most populous states in the Union.

[going2ireland]

Care to offer up proof that In Iowa you don't have to be a resident to participate in the caucus?

[nellie]

My understanding is that exit polling showed the vast majority of Republicans who turned out for the PA primary voted for Obama, and Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" was a dismal failure there. Do you have data showing Republican votes going to Clinton?

[Aleka4]

The Boston Globe has a good article with numbers for Chaos for Clinton in Oh and TX

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/03/17/many_voting_for_clinton_to_boost_gop/

There is no reason to think that they would vote for Obama with no urging from Limbaugh after having given Clinton the primary win in TX.

Voting for him at that point served no purpose as he had already won via delegates. They wouldn't be "helping" him to get the nomination, as even if Clinton had won by a larger margin we'd still be in this same boat. So why would they?

If the point is to prolong the contest, how does voting for Obama help in PA? It doesn't - had he come closer or even won, the contest would be over - so what would be the point? You repubs and clinton people make no sense whatsoever to try to make that claim.

This action of voting to create mischeif is actually illegal in Ohio from what I have heard and so I don't think the chaos people are going to be telling exit pollers in PA the truth. Would you? Yet I heard of people there wearing Operation Chaos t shirts, so we know they were there.

[olivia]

Why do the exit pollsters, who examine every demographic and statistic in excruciating detail, breaking the votes down by age, race, religion, economic status, education, gender, profession, ice cream preference...

never bother to tell us what parties these primary voters belong to, and how many of them switched parties before the primary, or are Republicans voting in a Democratic primary.

Huh?

[abeattie]

What bugs me is that they keep asking voters if they plan to vote for McCain if their candidate loses, but they never friggin ask who they will vote for if their candidate WINS.

Which would make this whole debate moot very quickly (one way or another).