Questioning Hillary Clinton's 'Victory' in Pennsylvania: The Rush Limbaugh Effect

What if Democratic voters and the uncommitted superdelegates come to learn that Rush Limbaugh had a greater impact on Hillary Clinton's victory in Pennsylvania, and maybe Texas and Ohio, than say, the Reverend Wright, and the so-called 'bitter' comments? Would such a finding influence how voters view the Pennsylvania 'victory?'

If my thesis is correct, you have to ask yourself why so many Republicans want Hillary Clinton to run against John McCain in November.

Here is what we know: Approximately 160,000 Pennsylvania Republicans, Independents and/or new voters registered as Democrats in the months preceding the April 22 Primary. Media reports widely credit the tanking economy, health care crisis, and war in Iraq for Republican disillusionment. But wait--let's look at those very impressive numbers a little closer and compare the re-registration data to say, California. Pennsylvania is the home of approximately 12 million residents while California is the home of almost 38 million residents, over three times the size of Pennsylvania. So we might expect the California re-registration figures to climb to about three times the number of Pennsylvania's re-registrants.

But that isn't the case.

At 170,000 new Democrats, California, the most populous state, and arguably the state widely considered as being the most likely to hop on the latest bandwagon, roughly approximated the Pennsylvania experience, prior to its Primary election on Super Tuesday.

Something's not right.

In the weeks between Super Tuesday and April 22, the date of the Pennsylvania Primary, the circular firing squad occurring between the two Democratic campaigns increased both Democratic candidates' unfavorability ratings, while McCain began to win against both candidates in hypothetical match-up polls, for the first time. If distressed Republicans wanted to bail out of their Party, common sense suggests that they'd have been much more likely to do so after McCain locked up the GOP nomination but before Clinton and Obama began to engage in the 24/7 mud wrestling match leading up to the Pennsylvania campaign.

I've worn a lot of hats in my life, one of which was to serve as a Democratic strategist for congressional and statewide campaigns, and the other, as the Democratic Party's Voter Registration Chair for the most evenly split county in the nine county San Francisco Bay Area. I have conducted over 100 voter registration events in front of area Target stores, Farmers' Markets, at the mall, in schools and colleges and at area train stations in the last several years. I have talked to voters of every age, color, religion, socio-economic class, and gender. I have observed one common characteristic of authentically disillusioned Republicans.

They share with me that they are torn about their decision to register out of the Party of their parents. Almost reverently, they talk about the Republican Party they grew up with, and often articulate a concern that their family not learn about their defection. And in almost all cases, and I've helped hundreds of voters re-register -- they leave their Grand Old Party by first going to Decline to State -- and then, after placing their newly liberated toes in the water by voting Democratic several cycles in a row -- they take the plunge and re-register Democratic.

Very few Republicans boldly go all the way to Democratic in one fell swoop if they are serious about their voting.

I looked for answers. Like most people who've been paid to deliver Democratic strategy, I've mostly ignored self-important Rush Limbaugh's claims that his Operation Chaos is responsible for the large number of re-registrants voting for Hillary in the last several contests. Because I've worked with voters for 8 years and I know first-hand just how difficult it is to get voters to change their parties. But then it hit me when I compared the Pennsylvania numbers to California's. The voters I was dealing with for 8 years were saying good-bye to something that meant something. I sensed sadness, betrayal almost, as I stood by, clipboard in hand, helping voters leave the party of their parents. I have often compared this transition to the changing of one's religion -- it is that difficult when authentically done.

And that's the key. I believe that Rush's Operation Chaos is at play here and authenticity has nothing to do with too may new Democratic registrants in the last contests. This re-registration is, I believe, being undertaken at Rush's suggestion to cynically stretch this contest out -- as long as possible -- so that Hillary's promised kitchen sink theory -- will end up driving both candidates' negatives through the roof so that neither is likely to win against McCain.

Voters in upcoming contests will always be swayed by the outcome of preceding contests. It's human nature to be influenced by the wisdom of those who've gone before us. But if I'm right -- and the outcome in Pennsylvania, and perhaps Mississippi, Texas, and Ohio were influenced by Rush's call to Republicans to keep Hillary in the race longer -- Democratic voters in Indiana and North Carolina, and the states that follow, deserve to know that we're being manipulated.

Cross-posted from The Environmentalist

Comments

[cathye]

THIS is the real reason that the superdelegates exist -- to prevent the party's decisions from being unduly influenced by outsiders.

And that is why the supers have all been trickling to Obama.

[BuckarooBanzai]

Only problem is that the folks who switched mostly voted for Obama.

[Aleka4]

And you know this how?

Because you fervently wish it?

[nik12]

There is evidence of this:

"In CNN exit polling from New Hampshire (a primary won by Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y.), independents favored Obama over Clinton 41 percent to 31 percent.
Exit polling from South Carolina was similar. Obama out-polled Clinton 42 percent to 32 percent."

http://www.dailybulletin.com/elections/ci_8180728

Furthermore, the Obama campaign openly courted Republican and Independent conversions in Pennsylvania:

"In the days after the March 24 voter registration deadline, state election officials will release figures that measure the almost singular focus of Obama’s field operation until then: political conversions.
Obama is attempting to crack open Pennsylvania’s closed party primary, initiating a program to flip the registrations of independent and Republican voters to Democrat."

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9020.html

So Obama gets to have it both ways: he wins and his supporters can attribute that win in part to his broad bi-partisan support; he loses and his supporters can attribute that loss to bigoted carpetbagging Republicans and Independents.

[Johnagain]

Got any evidence for this?

[tea in the harbor]

Those are the ones who honestly switched. Participation in a scheme like Operation Chaos is a felony in many states, it is voter fraud! (There is an ongoing investigation by the Ohio Attorney General.) It is unlikely that those voters are going to confess to exit pollers.

[newshawk14]

A number of years ago in CA, someone came out with a bumper sticker that said,
"Don't Vote, it only Encourages the Bastards". I thought it was rather funny, the
judge, however did not, and threw the book at him. I feel that what blowhard
Limbaugh is trying to do, is far worse, and should be dealt with very harshly, i.e.
slammer time, and no country club.

[rinpochet]

Not5 true. I read in a few sources that 8% of Hillary's victory in Texas was due to crossover Republican votes. So actually, she didn't even win Texas!

[JBCinSD]

It was clear as long as two years ago when Karl Rove said repeatedly that Hillary would be a "formidable candidate" that the Republicans are dying to run against her. He negatives started out high and she has made many more enemies by running such a sleazy campaign. Just listen to how Joe Scarborough and Pat Buchanan praise her now. And an endorsement from Richard Mellon Scaife, her archenemy?

Rush pushed his "operation chaos" hard before the Texas primary; 8% of the vote in the Democratic primary there were cast by Republicans and Hillary won by 3%.

The Republican manipulators are having a field day. Let's hope the Democratic superdelegates are awake to what's happening.

[McFlipFlop]

From CNN: If Hillary wins the nomination, 10% of the primary voters in Pennsylvania say they will vote for McCain. Of these 10%, a full 30% of them voted for Hillary in the primary. Huh? Vote for HIllary in the primary, but vote McCain in the general if HIllary wins the nomination?

These could be the Operation Chaos votes. With 2.3 million voters, that's 69,000, or 3% of the total voters. That would mean that 3% of Hillary's win is from Rush.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#PADEM

[McFlipFlop]

Would also like to add that this 3% represents only those that were willing to be exit-polled. Logic says that these voters would not be as likely to hang around for the exit poll.

[busybeez]

As a Texan I have been very frustrated that nobody is mentioning that Hillary hasn't won a primary since Super Tuesday without help from the Republicans. Operation Chaos has kept her going, and sadly she knows this better than anybody. These primaries, Texas, Ohio, Mississippi, Pennsylvania and North Carolina and Indiana area mockery of democracy. But nobody wants to admit it's happening and it's overturning the will of the Democrats. But I have to believe that anybody who wins this way will suffer a fall in the end. Hilary has a huge fall coming to her.

[LiberalAbe]

Terry Leach was also the name of a decidedly mediocre NY Mets pitcher. This one is even worse. The truth is that Obama is the one who has benefited from Republican votes that will go to McCain in the general election. Take a look at this Obama poster from Nevada from Huffington on 1/14/08. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/14/nevada-flier-by-obama-pre_n_81451.html. Obama has been doing this since the primaries started. Obama for a day was started by the Obama campaign to get Republicans to register as Democrats for one day, knowing full well they would return to the Republican fold. Sadly, HP has swallowed the Obama Kool-Aid, en masse.

[WordManMI]

Very true. Obama has been playing games feeding on the anti-Hillary sentiment. Limbaugh is having fun and no, it's not the ruination of Democracy. You can say the same for those who jumped parties in earlier open primaries to give McCain an edge over the other GOP candidates. Both parties have played this game in the past. So, what Rush is doing now is just the Democrat's "chickens coming home to roost"! LOL!!!

[tea in the harbor]

It is a serious danger to Democracy. It is manipulating the vote to get the weakest opponent, and that means by the time the general elections roll around the good candidates­,(supposin­g either party has one.) are not available to the American people!

[findingthetruth]

A cycle. That's all this amounts to. A cycle. Hillary's supporters are just as dishonest. Clearly there are quite a few. Imagine them teaching there children to be dishonest in life to get ahead. A cycle.

[CalexenderJ]

Interesting take. I'm not sure about your methodology in comparing California to Pennsylvannia. Remember that when the California primary took place the Republican nominee was up in the air, and so republicans may have wanted to try and determine their own nominee, thus they'd be less likely to cross over. Pennsylvannia on the other the Republican vote didn't mean anything to for a chance to have meaningful participation in the primary, you'd have to change registrations. This can be intrepreted in one of two ways. 1) as you suggest people crossed over to create mischief or 2) republicans weren't satisfied with McCain promising four more years of Bush (Romney/Pa­ul/Huckabe­e supporter) deciding that a democrat would actually be the lesser of two evil, and are legimately thinking about voting blue this fall. I'm not sure there's a good way to tell, as people in the former category aren't likely to be honest about their intentions with the pollsters. Lastly, I agree that Operation Chaos violates the spirit if the not the rule of our democracy, but I'm not sure what the best solution for it is.

[tea in the harbor]

The best solution is to eliminate both political parties. To have a system of local, state, and regional primaries where real people can put forward and discuss solutions to our problems without the added burden and risk of coruption made possible by the political parties.

If our choices weren't narrowed by equally vile party leadership it may be possible for honest citizens to become candidates!

[certainot]

this is a good example of the underestimated power of the GOP talk radio monopoly. rush didnt get a 1/3BIL$ plus percs contract for telling the truth.

ignoring the uncontested repetition only possible on talk radio for the last twenty years, as most progressives, Dem strategists, and media critics have done may go down as one of the biggest political blunders ever, considering the time lost dealing with climate change and the disaster in the middle east.

[chrissy22]

THAT HATE HILLARY SO MUCH THAT THEY WOULD VOTE FOR HER GET HER THE NORMINATION THEN TOTALLY DESTROY HER IN THE GENERAL ELECTION I DO BELIEVE THAT RUSH HAS SOME HAND IN HILLARYS WIN IN THOSE 3 BIG STATES MIGHT NOT BE ALOT TO SOME PPL BUT KEEP IN MIND EVERY LITTLE COUNTS HOPEFULLY HE DOES NOT SHOW UP IN INDIANA WHICH IS A OPEN ELECTION BUT I THINK HE WILL WIN VERY FAIRLY IN NC

[chefrasta]

Print your stats and conclusions and you should email everyone of the undecided no make that all super delegates so when they make their decision they have all the facts.

[BeingFrank]

Shocking,.­. ! Great Read and thank you for your important study !

I also believe the Texas results were also polluted by Rush !

For the idiots that feel our democratic process is fair game for games,.. there should be legal consequences for your lot,.and the loss of voting privileges for your lifetime..­.

[danieljohnson]

In the Mississippi primary, 75% of Republicans voting in the Democratic primary voted for Senator Clinton.

As a long-time Mississippian, i am unaware of any love Republicans have for Hillary. Numbers like that are curious considering the extremely polarizing figure she has been over the past decade.

Hillary-hatred by the Republican party is one of the most widely held assumptions of the American public.

[discombobulated]

Never let the facts get in the way of a good yarn. GOP voters crossing over have voted for Barry more than Hillary. Independants more also. The Democratic base of Unionists, working class and low income earners are behind Hillary 2-1 and will have no problems voting for McCain in November if this elitist joins the ranks of McGovern, Dukakis, Mondale, Gore and Kerry. So keep spinning your propaganda and kill the Dems in 2008. Latte Liberals: What's Wrong With America.

[BillZBubb]

Please! What a joke, Limbaugh couldn't convince even his most avid and brain dead fans to re-register as Democrats. They consider it a joke. It looks like the only chaos Limbaugh is spreading is in the heads of impressionable Democratic pundits.

[Aleka4]

Nice try.

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass

Chaos gabe Clinton TX primary (not caucus) and it looks like the caucus corrected the imbalance since the repubs couldnt be bothered to caucus for her.

[kgb999]

That's what made me change my mind about TX's wacky system. It is really tamper-resistant.

[nk007]

BillZBubb;

You really underestimate the power of Rush Limbaugh. I know many Republicans who are absolutely committed to his "operation chaos" and would do everything to ensure that democrats continue to waste their resources fighting with one other. What is even more disturbing to me is that Hillary and her campaign must know what is going on, and that is why she is sounding more Right wing Republican than John McCain. Personally, I really do think that people like Rush Limbaugh and Anne Coulter might actually prefer Hilary Clinton over John McCain. So, the call for Republicans to vote for Hillary may be about defeating both Barak Obama and John McCain. If I were a John McCain supporter I would really be very concerned about this. I don't know about Rush, but I think Anne Coulter is on record stating that she would vote for Hillary over John McCain.

[countbeckula]

Where I voted in Texas (for Obama, incidentally), there were two such Dittoheads waiting in line, proudly talking to each other about Operation Chaos. At the time there were only three others and myself in that line with them, and while the awkwardness was palpable, nobody said anything to these cowboys because they were somewhat physically intimidating.

I realize this is only anecdotal, but I've heard similar reports from my friends who live throughout North Texas. I truly believe that a significant number of Limbaugh's lemmings are at work here. Perhaps the Hillaryheads don't yet understand that Operation Chaos is a very real thing that Rush discusses regularly on his radio show.

"The dream end of this [of Operation Chaos] is that this keeps up to the Convention, and that we have a recreation of Chicago 1968 with burning cars, protests, fire, and literal riots and all of that, that is the objective here." -Rush Limbaugh

[Herrington]

Thanks for your professional opinion. It is not likely that any comment made here will be backed up by credentials like yours. But conjecture, skilled, educated or not, is still conjecture. The assessment of an experienced registration organizer is powerful and should lead to focused examination.

I have heard estimates of the vote being skewed by as much as three percent. Not a deal breaker but at least making a couple of delegates and a few tens of thousands of votes suspect.

In fairness, which is not available from the opposition, Al Franken was advocating the same crossover tactics to influence the Republican open primaries. Emphasis on open. Rush seems to have borrowed the idea with the added lustre of it being illegal to re-register and vote in the opposition's primary in most states.

[tea in the harbor]

Whether it is Limbough or Franken, it is an open attempt to manipulate our system. It is an attack on our electoral system and therefore the most unpatriotic manuver imaginable!

It is also an excellent argument to at long last take the advice of George Washinton, who warned us in his last speach as President that political parties are a danger to Democracy! These self-serving fraternaties and the system they have created to protect their power are the root cause of many of our problems. We must find a better way!

[caral]

Did you consider the fact that CA had an "open" primary and PA had a "closed" primary? Independents can't vote in a closed primary, they must re-register as Democrats or Republicans in order to vote. Normally a primary doesn't mean much in PA because of its late date, but this year it counted and Independent voters re-registered in droves to participate.

[kdubbg]

In CA on super Tuesday the GOP primary was closed, and the GOP nomination was still up in the air at that point.

[olivia]

I don't know about PA, but in Kansas you could register or re-register with a different party after you arrived at the caucus location.

It's not hard to switch parties long enough to influence the primary, then switch back.

[caral]

PA is not a caucus state; the primary voting process is exactly the same as the general election - voting in private with no politicking allowed inside the polling place. Mail in registration is required and the deadline for registration is usually (I think) the week before the election. Which is one reason why PA is such an interesting state to observe how the candidates did and another is the diverse electorate. I imagine that someone could re-register after the primary and before the general election, but it seems like a lot of work to me. Perhaps after the general election someone could research the stats on re-registering.