Questioning Hillary Clinton's 'Victory' in Pennsylvania: The Rush Limbaugh Effect

What if Democratic voters and the uncommitted superdelegates come to learn that Rush Limbaugh had a greater impact on Hillary Clinton's victory in Pennsylvania, and maybe Texas and Ohio, than say, the Reverend Wright, and the so-called 'bitter' comments? Would such a finding influence how voters view the Pennsylvania 'victory?'

If my thesis is correct, you have to ask yourself why so many Republicans want Hillary Clinton to run against John McCain in November.

Here is what we know: Approximately 160,000 Pennsylvania Republicans, Independents and/or new voters registered as Democrats in the months preceding the April 22 Primary. Media reports widely credit the tanking economy, health care crisis, and war in Iraq for Republican disillusionment. But wait--let's look at those very impressive numbers a little closer and compare the re-registration data to say, California. Pennsylvania is the home of approximately 12 million residents while California is the home of almost 38 million residents, over three times the size of Pennsylvania. So we might expect the California re-registration figures to climb to about three times the number of Pennsylvania's re-registrants.

But that isn't the case.

At 170,000 new Democrats, California, the most populous state, and arguably the state widely considered as being the most likely to hop on the latest bandwagon, roughly approximated the Pennsylvania experience, prior to its Primary election on Super Tuesday.

Something's not right.

In the weeks between Super Tuesday and April 22, the date of the Pennsylvania Primary, the circular firing squad occurring between the two Democratic campaigns increased both Democratic candidates' unfavorability ratings, while McCain began to win against both candidates in hypothetical match-up polls, for the first time. If distressed Republicans wanted to bail out of their Party, common sense suggests that they'd have been much more likely to do so after McCain locked up the GOP nomination but before Clinton and Obama began to engage in the 24/7 mud wrestling match leading up to the Pennsylvania campaign.

I've worn a lot of hats in my life, one of which was to serve as a Democratic strategist for congressional and statewide campaigns, and the other, as the Democratic Party's Voter Registration Chair for the most evenly split county in the nine county San Francisco Bay Area. I have conducted over 100 voter registration events in front of area Target stores, Farmers' Markets, at the mall, in schools and colleges and at area train stations in the last several years. I have talked to voters of every age, color, religion, socio-economic class, and gender. I have observed one common characteristic of authentically disillusioned Republicans.

They share with me that they are torn about their decision to register out of the Party of their parents. Almost reverently, they talk about the Republican Party they grew up with, and often articulate a concern that their family not learn about their defection. And in almost all cases, and I've helped hundreds of voters re-register -- they leave their Grand Old Party by first going to Decline to State -- and then, after placing their newly liberated toes in the water by voting Democratic several cycles in a row -- they take the plunge and re-register Democratic.

Very few Republicans boldly go all the way to Democratic in one fell swoop if they are serious about their voting.

I looked for answers. Like most people who've been paid to deliver Democratic strategy, I've mostly ignored self-important Rush Limbaugh's claims that his Operation Chaos is responsible for the large number of re-registrants voting for Hillary in the last several contests. Because I've worked with voters for 8 years and I know first-hand just how difficult it is to get voters to change their parties. But then it hit me when I compared the Pennsylvania numbers to California's. The voters I was dealing with for 8 years were saying good-bye to something that meant something. I sensed sadness, betrayal almost, as I stood by, clipboard in hand, helping voters leave the party of their parents. I have often compared this transition to the changing of one's religion -- it is that difficult when authentically done.

And that's the key. I believe that Rush's Operation Chaos is at play here and authenticity has nothing to do with too may new Democratic registrants in the last contests. This re-registration is, I believe, being undertaken at Rush's suggestion to cynically stretch this contest out -- as long as possible -- so that Hillary's promised kitchen sink theory -- will end up driving both candidates' negatives through the roof so that neither is likely to win against McCain.

Voters in upcoming contests will always be swayed by the outcome of preceding contests. It's human nature to be influenced by the wisdom of those who've gone before us. But if I'm right -- and the outcome in Pennsylvania, and perhaps Mississippi, Texas, and Ohio were influenced by Rush's call to Republicans to keep Hillary in the race longer -- Democratic voters in Indiana and North Carolina, and the states that follow, deserve to know that we're being manipulated.

Cross-posted from The Environmentalist

Comments

[oldlakelady]

America has lost it's moral compass. The fact that this kind of illegal, immoral voting manipulation has been taking place, even boasted about by Rush and his fanatical followers shows clearly the depths to which some have crawled. Clinton and her campaign have wallowed right down in the trough with Rush by quietly accepting this bogus support and pandering to the right by appearing on O'Rilley,etc. If she wins this nomination, I can look forward to being ashamed of being an American for another 4 to 8 years.

[TheJibreelaMonsters]

what is bad for you is Great for America...

Rush Voter: 021217162871

[CapitalistRebel]

Yeah because you Republicans have done so much good for the country in the last 7 years....

[OriginalScreenName]

Can you tell me why Rush hates Democracy?

[LannyMacD]

You are aware that you just admitted to voter fraud. Maybe you should be made aware that every message on these boards has an IP address associated with it. That IP address is registered back to your ISP, who inturn have log files that track your Internet activity to confirm you actions on line, like submission of a given message.

Republicans have two qualities in massive qualities; hubris and arrogance. What is scary is that a large number of them are also incredibly stupid, and you happen to fall into this category. Coming onto a web site and claiming to have committed a class C felony is just so, so Republican.

[oncethere]

Biggest Story in the Election, uncovered, of course, by the media. Same thing happened in Ohio. Repugs can't win elections on the merits of their candidates, so they have to Lie (Swift-boating), Game (Limbaugh's Oper Chaos), Break into DNC office to steal private info (Watergate) and Close down polling booths early because of a "terrorist threat" (Ohio, 2004).

It really is too disgusting for words.

[TheJibreelaMonsters]

even Watergate was unnecessary... get a box of straws and enjoy Hillary!

Rush Voter: 021217162871

[OriginalScreenName]

By seeking to destroy the electoral process through open manipulation of votes, you and Rush by definition are fascists.

[TrueD]

The thrice-divorced, sex-vacationing drug addict known as Rush Limbaugh commands complete respect from his legions of dittoheads. He is asking them to vote for Hillary, and i would guess that a lot of them are.

[KareninSM]

If I remember right, on Super Tuesday the Republican race was still competitive--if so, I would expect that the Republicans who re-registered were the ones who were sincere supporters of one of the Democratic candidates. Rather than raw numbers, I think a more accurate measure of any Limbaugh effect would be the percentage of crossovers for Hillary vs. Obama. As I recall, crossovers in the Super Tuesday contests and subsequent caucuses were heavily for Obama, while in Texas and even more, Mississippi, the percentage for Hillary went up substantially. What was the breakdown in Ohio and Pennsylvania?

[fungeezer]

Ohio is where criminal charges may be filed for republicans crossing over then crossing back. They have some kind of law that they can use to prosecute as voter fraud.

[Rasteira]

Hillary supporters (read Hillaricans not democrats) will take help anywhere they can get it, even if won't be there in November.

It's funny how 'Hillary Supporters' has become somewhat of an expletive.

[dr4Will]

get a life you jealous little Clinton hater--you left wing nuts are paranoid enough without articles like this--blame Russ for everything--wait till tomorrow ,you geeks

[Melizzy]

*snicker* Another dumb, illiterate Republican? ummm. It's "Rush" *snicker*

[Tonto2]

Any evidence of a "democrat for a day" re-reregistration back to the republican party?

[TheJibreelaMonsters]

Question.. is it ok for Democrats to vote in Republican Primaries?

[KillTheMessenger]

Answer: not if all they want is to manipulate the process. Of course, if someone has no scruples, they won't care. If they change registration because they are seriously thinking about changing their vote, it's perfectly fine. It's a two way street.

[TheJibreelaMonsters]

this is just old Democrat tricks. This is because the GOP is too soft to take apart Obama like they should.

[rickmv]

God bless Rush Limbaugh, driving the libs nuts since 1989.

[Herrington]

Actually, it is not the "libs" that he is driving nuts. Look in the mirror.

[rickmv]

Sounds like projection to me.

[newshawk14]

I suspect your thesis is probably correct. The reason the republicans would like to see Hillary
win is that her negatives are so high, that she has sort of a maximum ceiling that she cannot
exceed. Obama, has a much higher ceiling and if he has a good presidential campaign should
win handily.

[BlueAsh]

Hillary has a lot more baggage--so much more that one needs only to tell the truth and she'll look bad, She'd look bad if she was a man--if the "ceiling" you refer to is gender related.

The Republican attack machines are in a holding position. As soon as Hillary stole this nomination, it will kick into action. And Limbaugh's work is child's play.

[newshawk14]

I was referring to a maximum ceiling in the mathematical sense. I'm strongly
opposed to the so called glass ceiling.

[JBCinSD]

Exactly. And Hillary's high negatives have only gotten higher as the campaign has progressed. We could have seen this coming two years ago when Karl Rove kept saying what a "formidable candidate" she would be. Read: please don't throw me in that briar patch.

[newshawk14]

Love your Br'er Rabbit reference, which is dead on.

[booksnmore4you]

Limbaugh's action is criminal, immoral, and reprobate.

[KillTheMessenger]

But successful. And that is all it takes.

[LiberalandLovingIt]

Ms Leach has a good point. Never underestimate the power of crazy fans - Rush inspires the worst in a crazier than Paula Abdul, knee-jerk bunch of delusional repubs who think Dubya is just a fancier, luckier version of themselves. If Rush is pushing for Hillary for the nom than they'll go to great lengths to help their guy Rush achieve his goal. That's why they proudly call themselves Dittoheads.

[TheJibreelaMonsters]

Democrats been doing this for years... so Republicans come down to your level and give you a taste of your own medicine... deal with it!

[PKSSK]

Terry, I agree that Limbaugh is playing a part in our primary election, but there is also voter surpression and manipulation that has played a part in many states, involving the Womens Voices Women Vote (WVWV) organization, which has a direct relationship to the Clinton campaign. Also, many people are well aware of the threats on our election process based on the electronic voting machines, which played a major role in Kerry's loss in 2004. People will be outraged if any of these issues impact Obama's nomination.


Obama/Boxer 08

[mediamarv]

The "direct relationship" to the Clinton campaign was never proved... so where's yours??

[PKSSK]

Do some homework and look it up, the Board of Directors biographies are directly related to the Clinton campaign and has been proven. Open your mind and become educated.

[maggieb]

Its time for people like you to stop peddling this falsehood. There is no Limbaugh effect...Repubs crossover to vote for BOTH candidates. Get over it, Obama lost PA fair and square. I live in PA, I know.

[burnt]

oh yeah... here it comes... oh, oh, oh ,oh.... I'm believin' it, yes!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oh, thank you... I don't know what I would have done to get through the day without this kind of spin... I'm dizzy... no, really... ho!

Here... let me help you....

alienated in Seattle

[maggieb]

After you are through being dizzy, go do you independent research and you will find out that BOTH candidates are getting crossover votes. Obviously, you only get your information from Huffpost. Also your histrionics is beyond lame, you are either very young or simply immatured.

[2351]

I do believe that Hillary benefited from the crossover, not only in Pennsylvania, but in Ohio also,. The party officials were trying to figure out how to prosecute some of these people. There are many people in Ohio and Pennsylvania who don't even know what happened. I don't see how they can say with certainty that Hillary has won by a certain percentage or that Obama won or lost by a certain percentage. This whole thing is so unfair to Obama because he is the only one trying to play by the rules, but Hillary has all of this help obtaining votes. All that I can say is, what if black people were doing this kind of stuff. To me, this makes there is nothing true about the election results.

[sickofallofit]

What Maggie, do you speak for all of us in PA? I think not. Maybe in your small part of the state it didn't happen, but I personally know many who did exactly that. They have already changed there registration back to Republican.

I was going to change mine too, albeit not to follow Rush. I wanted to vote for Obama, but we had an important primary choice for our Congressional district that I had a definite choice I had to make. But don't underestimate Rush's power over his followers. Many of them fall right in line with whatever he says.

[flacon]

Rush is messing with everyone! Good for him.

[mediamarv]

Can't wait til his little ride is over... I plan to stay alive long enough to piss on his grave.

Great motivation for dieting and excercise I've come to discover.

[Mack20]

Hate can be quite a motivator.

[kdubbg]

I've long said I was going to dance a jig on Dick Cheney's grave but he's been dead for twenty years and they still haven't buried him, I'm thinking I might just have to follow your lead and piss on Rush's instead. And I'll be sure to drink a couple lattés beforehand just as a coup de grace.