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Terry Newell

Terry Newell

Posted: January 2, 2011 09:45 AM

The Debt Tax

What's Your Reaction:

Don't look now, but Congress just raised your taxes. How can that be? Didn't they just approve a bill that will keep Bush-era tax cuts in place, lower the inheritance tax, and lower the Social Security tax for a year?

Call it the "debt tax." Whenever the federal government enacts a bill that it does not pay for, we go further into debt -- in this case $900 billion. When you buy something you can't afford, you borrow the money and pay interest on what you borrow. The interest the government has to pay on its debt has to come from you, the taxpayer, and thus it acts just like a tax -- your tax dollars pay it.

In 1940, the federal government paid $10.3 billion in interest on the debt, $78 for every man, woman and child in America at the time. In 1980, the government paid $111.6 billion in interest, or $491 for every American. Fast-forward to 2010, where the comparative figures were $168.4 billion and $545. Chump change. According to the President's Budget for 2011, interest on the debt will be $474 billion by 2015, a per capita cost of $1,454. In short, the "debt tax" will increase nearly 300 percent in just five years.

If this sounds like "so what, I don't actually have to pay more," think about it another way. If the federal government had no debt in 2015, it could lower your taxes by $1,458. For a family of four, that would amount to a tax bill nearly $6,000 less.

According to the bipartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO, in 2020, when net interest on the debt is projected to cost $937 billion, that net interest will be 14 percent of federal spending, nearly as much as we will spend on Defense (15 percent) and Medicare (17%). Oh, and the per capita cost of the interest will by then be $2,789.

In 1985, the entire federal budget was $946 billion. By 2020, based on CBO's estimates, we'll pay nearly that just in interest. In short, the "debt tax" in 2020 will equal what the federal budget was in 1985.

One more thing. When you pay the debt tax, you might at least take comfort in the fact that your tax dollars are doing back to good old Uncle Sam, right? Well, only partially. The U.S. government owes nearly a third of its debt to foreign creditors (over $4 trillion). So, roughly 30 cents of each "debt tax" dollar goes to a list of countries that includes China (our biggest creditor by dollar volume), Japan, the U.K, Russia, the oil exporting countries of the Middle East and Brazil. Isn't it comforting to know that our "debt tax" dollars are financing the growth of our competitors?

On the brighter side of all this, you might think: well, Republicans, Democrats, and the White House finally stopped shouting at each other and agreed on something. They compromised. But how hard is it really to compromise on spending more money? Maybe each bill coming before Congress should have to report what impact it will have on the "debt tax."

 
 
 
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11:37 AM on 01/04/2011
Mr. Newell, I agree in the sense that offering treasuries in a non convertible economy is pointless. But, whether or not the government creates a dollar or creates a treasury it's all essentially the same thing. The interest given, although pointless, does not actually come from tax receipts.

http://moslereconomics.com/mandatory-readings/
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George Hanshaw
There are none so blind as those who will not see.
11:51 PM on 01/03/2011
I think the cost of debt service projections here are wildly optimistic. Already several rating agencies have been talking about downgrading US sovereign debt, as has been done with places like Greece and Ireland.

If we aren't very fortunate, we may end up with the interest rates we must pay to sell US bonds and Treasury notes going back to where they were in the 1980s, when ten year treasuries were yielding 14%. That would give us an ANNUAL debt service of $1.96 Trillion based upon the current debt of nearly $14trillion.
11:43 AM on 01/04/2011
Greece and Ireland are not monetarily sovereign which is a large part of their problem in the first place...

And, bond rates are whatever the fed decides they are going to be. Although they mainly target overnights, they have the power to set any term they wish.

The only option for those who wish to receive interest on their reserves is to accept what we offer or essentially give the government an interest free loan. Either way it's all unnecessary since we don't have a convertible currency.
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George Hanshaw
There are none so blind as those who will not see.
12:03 AM on 01/06/2011
"And, bond rates are whatever the fed decides they are going to be. Although they mainly target overnights­, they have the power to set any term they wish."

Bond rates are whatever the BUYER decides they are going to be. The bond vigilantes ultimately will determine the rates/
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conservativewhitemale
Silence is the language of God. Zip it.
10:52 PM on 01/03/2011
Make your own rules. Increase your non-taxable income, by any means (legal?).
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
02:51 PM on 01/04/2011
sure, it's legal - if you call yourself a religion...
06:42 PM on 01/03/2011
Well, I quess the most important thing is the Rich get to keep more money so they can make more money... Maybe one day they will have pity on us shrinking middle class folks and "trickle" some of it down on us.. ya think??
09:30 PM on 01/03/2011
Actually as part of the Bush cuts, the middle calss and the poor come out better. Thsi really shoudl not be thought of as a tax cut for the rich, it shoudl be thought of as a tax cut for the poor and middle class. Anyway, letting people keep more of the money they earned with their work or investment is a godo thing. The problem is a spending problem not a tax revenue problem.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
incognito-ergo-sum
ProgLibFemHumanist. Thanks tax payers for paying
10:44 PM on 01/03/2011
Right now, no one is spending except for governments. State, local and federal are the only ones putting money into the economy.

My problem with the article is this, people and governments, dump debt when they can. That way they got something for nothing but people up the line got paid. Dump a department store credit account and the manufactures were paid, but the store loses and they cut jobs.

Buy American and shop locally. Don't cut government spending, just reorganize it.
HUFFPOST PUNDIT
lightningbolt
05:34 PM on 01/03/2011
The best way to pay for the national debt is to increase taxes on the rich and cut defense spending and corporate bailouts and subsidies.
09:38 PM on 01/03/2011
Simplistic and unrealistic.

The best way to get out of debt is through growth. Which requires a return to free market fundamentals, less biased regulation, and smaller government power to tax and redistribute. The result will be more companies investing and growing, a broadened tax base that results in more stable tax revenue, and less rent seeking special interests that require tariff protection or economic subsidies or simple bail outs and straight forward pay outs. This reduction in government entitlements to both the rich and the poor, while not only fair, would reduce the burden of government that is weighing down both the individual and corporate tax payer.

You have a good point in terms of cutting defense (in addition to reforming Medicare, Soc Sec, and other rent seeking welfare programs). I have no problem cutting defense, especially as it relates to foreign countries. If they want our protection let them pay for it and let us make a respectable profit. Highly unlikely, so let’s reduce that to a bare minimum. We do not get any love for being the world’s policeman and are seen as a bully by much of the world. Not worth it.

Kai
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Inkosi
The gods themselves rage aginst stupidity
01:07 PM on 01/04/2011
Social Security is not Welfare or entitlement! It is insurance. Social Security is just fine - just have the Gov't stop raiding it. There was no gov't regulation and that is why the economy crashed! And when it crashed Business came looking for Welfare hand outs from whom??? The Gov't and the unwashed poor/middle class. Weighing down Corporate!!! Come on! Corporations have been doing exceedinly well or have you not been reading the Wall Street rag.
03:37 PM on 01/04/2011
Excellent.
HUFFPOST PUNDIT
lightningbolt
05:30 PM on 01/03/2011
Let's not forget about the inflation tax.  When the U.S. government cannot borrow from foreign creditors, it borrows from the privately owned Federal Reserve, which prints dollars out of thin air, reducing the value of every dollar in the world.
09:41 PM on 01/03/2011
True that! This hist the poor mor since they have less discretionary income that can be hedged againt inflation. It is effectively a regressive tax on the poor. That is why Saint Reagan fought it so aggressively. He understood that it penalized and further impoverished the poor.
HUFFPOST PUNDIT
lightningbolt
01:56 AM on 01/04/2011
Reagan didn't fight inflation.  He increased the national debt more than any other President before Bush II (who is by far the most reckless spender in history).
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Louis Bloom
05:17 PM on 01/03/2011
"If the federal government had no debt in 2015, it could lower your taxes by $1,458. For a family of four, that would amount to a tax bill nearly $6,000 less." Whose taxes? Do you really expect your readers to accept the transparent nonsense that total taxes are assessed per capita. How simple do you think your audience is? This is exactly the sort of simplistic absurdity that makes Tea Partiers think they understand economics and taxation.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Terry Newell
07:34 AM on 01/05/2011
The intent in the post was to put this in terms easy to grasp. Of course, a large segment of the population pays no taxes, so the figure for those who do would be higher.
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
realitytrumpsbull
two 'alves of coconut!
04:07 PM on 01/03/2011
I say balance the budget NOW. It's nice, to have lots of government programs, but it's even NICER, to have a currency that's still worth something, and when they have to build 14 more printing presses, just to turn out the treasury notes and other promissory instruments, to at least have SOMEthing behind each dollar, well somewhere in there, it just gets stupid. I think the govt. will survive a 10% spending cut. There will be whining and screeching and crying galore, but maybe some of those folks are overdue for a pay cut as it is. Mega-spending has been the catch-phrase ever since 2000, and you wonder how it's all going to work out.
11:46 AM on 01/04/2011
There are many economic assumptions in what you just said simply are not true.

http://moslereconomics.com/mandatory-readings/
02:45 PM on 01/03/2011
These numbers as presented are misleading and are clearly aimed at generating hysteria. Adjusted for inflation, the 1940 debt per person of $78 would be ( drumroll) $1,219.05. We are at less than half that load. Quit freaking out.
03:05 PM on 01/03/2011
The top tax rate for high wage earners in 1940 was 78%, and today it is a measily 35%, so there is plenty of reason to "freak out", when you have a bunch of people at the top NOT PAYING THEIR FAIR SHARE.
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Independent66
www.linkedin.com/in/harveyring
05:07 PM on 01/03/2011
There is empirical data that the Feds collect about 18.5% of GDP since 1950. No matter what the top rate, tax payers change behavior as rates change. The top rate was 90% to 34% and several points between and capital gains taxes had a wide variance too. The estimates from the Congressional Budget Office on future tax receipts tend to assume people will be slow to change behavior. That is a poor assumption. People move from high taxed states to lower taxed states. Just look who lost seats in congress and where the gains were created. The very group you are wanting to tax more are the group that can and will change behavior. A much better solution is to grow the economy. Increasing GDP by $1T will generate $185B in more tax revenues and lots of jobs. We need to prioritize spending and sunset programs that are not effective or important. Just getting rid of the fraud in the Medixxx programs saves $100-150B a year. There is another $100B of wasted procurement that Defense doesn't want, but some congress person does. There are billions of waste in every department. It's easy to get the first $500B out of spending and $1T is certainly attainable. Then removing ALL tax preferences on the books will allow rates to go down and still collect more. Then we might feel the code was more fair.
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
OSCPJ
Want it? Work 4 it. No 1 has ever drown in sweat.
07:51 PM on 01/03/2011
Fair Share.

When 47 percent of all people get money from the IRS in Refundable credits.  And the richer off pay a higher total and total percentage, and you believe that is unfair do Americans have a problem. 

Fair?  Can you express that in a total amount?  Or a percentage? 

Fair to everyone else is paying the same amount to the govt or the same percentage?

Fair to you means we take from the people who work and give to those that don't?  That's not going to work.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Terry Newell
07:40 AM on 01/05/2011
A fair point - though that does not mean that the current and projected debt is sustainable - or that the interest we pay on it is not wasted in terms of the oppportunity cost of that money.
11:41 AM on 01/03/2011
Conservatives please their international banking masters by cutting taxes and spending with abandon because as you say, interest on debt, just like inflation, is a tax. The bigger the debt, the more interest we and all future generations pay. Nice huh? Wouldn't you love to own stock in the Federal Reserve. Conservatives fighting liberals is a big red herring. The battle is with the Fed.
11:40 AM on 01/03/2011
How do you wage two worthless wars without raising taxes? Borrow the money from China. How do you provide prescriptions drugs for seniors without raising taxes? Borrow the money from China. How do you give tax breaks to the richest 2% of the population without raising taxes? Borrow the money from China. How do you avoid paying back the money to China? Start a war and seize their assets.
01:04 PM on 01/03/2011
It worked in 1900. It is probably on their minds again.
03:45 PM on 01/03/2011
The US would truly be a has been if we tried to go to war with China.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
TRex86
Enjoying life in West Ohio
11:22 AM on 01/03/2011
This understates the problem. The carrying costs of federal debt are near the irreducible minimum as interest rates on short term debt are under one percent. Imagine the cataclysmic effect of a runup in interest rates like the late 70's-early 80's. The interest costs will be staggering. We'll be paying for borrowing with borrowing. Checkmate.

Unfortunately, the "conservative" party has engaged in a spending binge for the last 30 years while simultaneously cutting taxes. As a result federal debt rose from $900 billion in 1980 to $14.3 trillion. That's some serious money. What's worse is our economy is in a fragile state and could slide from recession into depression. Thus, we can't do much about the debt until we get the economy going. In fact we need more deficit spending to really jump start the economy.

Nonetheless, where big cuts in federal spending makes sense is mainly the defense budget. Since we spend more than the rest of the planet combined we could slash that to the level of our allies and lose nothing. We should stop being the world's cop and eliminate overseas spending as it does us no good economically. Secondly, I would down-size the Dept of Homeland Security. Big waste of time. The best thing short term redirect the money to domestic spending. In the long run once the economy gets going we should amortize our debt (and future costs of Medicare) and start paying down that monsterous debt.
11:50 AM on 01/03/2011
I agree. I think this is part of the terrorist's plan to get us to spend ourselves into bankruptcy. And the government is falling for it hook, line and sinker.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
rebt
a liberal in the bible belt. Oh the humanity.
11:51 AM on 01/03/2011
Hello TRex86. Long time no reply (to your comments). Gotta Fav this one. Peace.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
TRex86
Enjoying life in West Ohio
04:09 PM on 01/03/2011
Hi. Thanks. We are not governed by adults.
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
Chris1962
NYC
11:03 AM on 01/03/2011
Gee, y'think maybe it's time to STOP THE RECKLESS SPENDING — like the Republicans and Tea Partiers have been saying all along? Neato idea.
11:54 AM on 01/03/2011
Forget what the Republicans say. Pay attention to what they have done. It helps to think before you write.
12:48 PM on 01/03/2011
You mean like the reckless spending on two wars and prescriptions in Medicare part D. I know. You want to cut pork projects to balance the budget right? Republicans and Tea Partiers have no clue what's going on.
01:16 PM on 01/03/2011
And you think the Dems do???
They are both to blame.
11:01 AM on 01/03/2011
The Head Of A Household Of Four Making Minimum Wage Has More Disposable Income Than A Family Making $60,000 A Year

Now where it gets plainly out of control is if one throws in Supplemental Security Income.

SSI pays $8,088 per year for each “disabled” family member. A person can be deemed “disabled” if thy are totally lacking in the cultural and educational skills needed to be employable in the workforce.

If you add $24,262 a year for three disability checks, the lowest paid welfare family would now have far more take-home income than the $60,000-a-year family.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/entitlement-america-head-household-making-minimum-wage-has-more-disposable-income-family-mak
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
alexeiz
Since I lost all hope, I feel much better!
01:54 PM on 01/03/2011
Amazingly deceiving logic based on distortion or just plain ignorance of facts and desire to push the dogma at all costs.

I agree that example the poster gives is true - in a vanishingly small percentage of cases and so couldn't be used to prove a pattern. The attempt to do it is dishonest at the least.
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FightingTheRight
That isn't God's voice in your head.
05:19 PM on 01/03/2011
"SSI pays $8,088 per year for each “disabled” family member. A person can be deemed “disabled” if thy are totally lacking in the cultural and educationa­l skills needed to be employable in the workforce.
"

If they have to be lacking cultural and educational skills needed to be employable in the workforce, wouldn't that make them adults.

If they are adults, then it really can't be meet the definition of a family unit.
11:00 AM on 01/03/2011
The Federal Reserve can eliminate $4 Trillion of debt by increasing it's quantitative easing from about $1 Trillion by June to $4 Trillion by the end of 2012. To pay the remaining debt, taxes must be increased on the wealthy who have received the greatest benefit from the Federal Government's easy money, low tax policy.
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
OSCPJ
Want it? Work 4 it. No 1 has ever drown in sweat.
07:56 PM on 01/03/2011
You need to take a class in Economics.  Nothing you said made any sense. 

The FED is an issuer of debt.  It won't wipe out debt.  It might buy the debt from the banks and have the taxpayers pay for it. 

Tax the rich is getting old.  Politicians have a problem.  They will always spend more and more money.  The answer is not giving them more.

WTF is "Low Tax Policy"?