by Catherine A. Traywick, Media Consortium blogger
A bill that would create a path to legalization for undocumented youth passed the House of Representatives Wednesday, and is now headed to the Senate. The DREAM Act, which has struggled for survival even amid steady and strong bipartisan support, could render more than 2 million undocumented immigrants eligible for conditional permanent residency if they attend college or serve in the military.
Making good on at least one pre-election promise, congressional Democrats succeeded in bringing the bill to a vote before Republicans assume control of the House in January--but not without plenty of contention. For two hours, House representatives rehashed the spectrum of party-line immigration talking points before finally clearing the DREAM Act, 216-198, reports ColorLines' Julianne Hing.
Forging on a compromise
It's a refreshing victory for DREAM advocates who saw major losses last October when the bill was momentarily defeated in the Senate, and last November, when the midterm election ushered in a spate of staunchly anti-immigrant representatives and governors who decry the bill as "amnesty." But the stroke of success is bittersweet for many of the bill's proponents, who take issue with some of the political concessions made by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) in an effort to bring the bill to the floor.
As Marcelo Ballvé reports at New America Media, the latest iteration of the act is more exclusionary than previous versions--to the point of possibly eliminating eligibility for as many as 140,000 individuals. In addition to reducing the maximum eligibility age from 34 to 29, the new version of the bill bars beneficiaries from accessing Medicare (or participating in health insurance exchanges under the health reform package) and draws out the citizenship process by several years.
But despite the rigidity of the newly revised provisions, Ballvé notes that the single greatest barrier to DREAM Act eligibility is not its design, but high levels of poverty within immigrant communities. While more than 2 million youths would theoretically be eligible for conditional legal residency under the DREAM Act, the educational barriers associated with poverty would reduce that number to 825,000, according to a report by the Migration Policy Institute.
Debate suggests an uncertain future
Still, the DREAM Act makes both economic and political sense, as Katie Andriulli points out at Campus Progress. Even with the number of potential beneficiaries lowered, the Congressional Budget Office calculates that the DREAM Act could reduce the deficit by $1.4 billion over the next 10 years, simply by legitimizing scores of potential professionals. And--contrary to opponents' claims that the act will encourage illegal immigration or reward illegal behavior--the measure only provides "a discrete one-time universe of individuals" the chance for legalization, while actualizing a return on the financial investments already made in the millions of undocumented youth who have completed public school in the United States.
Despite the DREAM Act's victory in the House, however, its chances of clearing the Senate on Thursday remain somewhat slim. After successfully blocking the bill last October, Senate Republicans have been laying roadblocks ahead of Thursday's vote--first vowing to stall any and all proposed measures until the controversial Bush tax cuts were extended and then spouting considerable misinformation about the DREAM Act (which Marshall Fitz soundly counters at Campus Progress). Moreover, a number of senators who once supported the measure now appear to be undecided in the face of competing political pressures.
The movement's next steps?
But whether the bill clears the Senate on Thursday, progressive immigration reform advocates will find themselves in a politically hostile--and possibly unnavigable--environment come January, when a new line-up of right-wing lawmakers takes over the House.
Daniel Altschuler at The Nation argues that the movement must assess and address its greatest weaknesses if it hopes--at the very least--to weather the storm. While the reform movement has demonstrated its ability to "convert grassroots power into legislative pressure," Altschuler argues, it has failed at "developing a unified legislative strategy and shaping the national debate."
In terms of crafting a focused legislative strategy, activists will have to contend with a number of competing issues as opposed to focusing on a single target--such as passing the DREAM Act. The Obama administration's continued enforcement push, anti-immigrant proposals by Republican House leaders, and state-level immigration measures all threaten to divide the movement's focus, as they have in years past. In the meantime, Altschuler concludes, "the movement's goals will be to fend off punitive enforcement legislation and lay the groundwork for" comprehensive immigration reform, through substantial--and perhaps disappointing--compromise.
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