UPDATE: The New York Times has identified the man behind the elaborate hoax as Eitan Gorlin, a filmmaker who says he planned to pitch a TV show based on the character.

A former campaign adviser to John McCain named Martin Eisenstadt has outed himself as the proud source of the "Sarah Palin doesn't know Africa is a continent" story. The New Republic and MSNBC have picked up the Eisenstadt scoop.

But it's not at all clear that Eisenstadt exists. William K. Wolfrum of Shakespeare's Sister, who was suckered by Eisenstadt during the campaign, did some digging and concluded, "There is no M. Thomas Eisenstadt. There is no Eisenstadt Group. There is no Harding Institute for Freedom and Democracy. M. Thomas Eisenstadt is a hoax."

To be clear, none of this means the Africa story is false -- just that it didn't come from this source. Huffington Post has been told on background that Martin Eisenstadt was not one of Fox News correspondent Carl Cameron's sources.

Jonathan Stein at Mother Jones writes of being tricked by Eisenstadt on another scandal:

A few hours ago, we (okay, I) posted a blog about a man claiming to be a McCain adviser who made ridiculous comments on Iraqi television about building a casino in the Baghdad Green Zone. In addition to the inherent absurdity of it, there was a lot of arrogance, cultural insensitivity, and racism thrown in. Other blogs had posted on the guy, and when I checked him out before posting I found his blog and a foreign policy institute claiming his employ. Turns out the blog and institute, like the adviser, were an elaborate hoax. It didn't help that the guy, in creating his fictional foreign policy expert, closely mimicked the name of a real foreign policy expert.

Here's why I got taken: I received an emailed press release reporting that the supposed McCain adviser had apologized for his comments about the casino. You're welcome to disagree with me, but I had no reason to believe that someone would invent a persona, a blog, a foreign policy institution, a video with a fake Iraqi television station, a press release, and an organization or email entity to send out said press release.

But frankly, there was enough info on the web that I should have sussed this thing out. This is a long way of saying I apologize and that I'm more than a little ashamed. I've taken the post down. Kudos to the inventor of this whole thing. My only consolation is that if I had as much time on my hands as he clearly does, I probably would have figured this out and saved myself a fair amount of embarrassment.

Even if he did exist, Eisenstadt doesn't appear to have been high up enough in the McCain campaign to be privy to Sarah Palin's private utterances. According to his own bio, his role in the campaign was "offering advice and liaising with the Jewish community in particular."

The New Republic has retracted its blog post; MSNBC's David Shuster very quickly admitted that "there may be some indications" the story was made up.

In fairness, it should be noted that Huffington Post writers have also fallen for Eisenstadt's tricks on a couple occasions.

Undeterred by media criticism, a drop in polls, and a defamation lawsuit, Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) has released a second ad linking her opponent Kay Hagan to a group called "Godless Americans." The ad says Hagan's personal faith (which the Democrat defended in her own response ad) is "not the question."

Via John Cole, the Politico reports on Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss' candid assessment of what motivates Republicans in his state:

The Republican is outwardly confident, but there's urgency in his voice as he tours North Georgia, trying to boost turnout in his predominately white base: "The other folks are voting," he bluntly tells supporters.

Just in case anyone was confused about who those "other folks" are, Chambliss gave this quote to the New York Times:

The development is not lost on Mr. Chambliss. "There has always been a rush to the polls by African-Americans early," he said at the square in Covington, a quick stop on a bus tour as the campaign entered its final week. He predicted the crowds of early voters would motivate Republicans to turn out. "It has also got our side energized, they see what is happening," he said.

Former Sen. Max Cleland, who was beaten by Chambliss in 2002, expressed concern in an interview with the Huffington Post about a "white backlash" to Barack Obama in the South. But he also touted the "historic numbers in terms of registration, African-Americans and young people" that is changing the region's political landscape in "fundamental" ways.

Campaign aides to John McCain told the New York Times last week that "Joe the Plumber" would form the bedrock of their strategy for the rest of the race:

Mr. McCain's advisers said that in his speeches, television advertisements and mailings, he would seize on a remark Mr. Obama made in an encounter with an Ohio voter, Joe Wurzelbacher, who had pressed him to explain his support for a tax increase for upper-income filers. Mr. Obama responded by saying he wanted to "spread the wealth." Mr. McCain repeatedly invoked that encounter with the man, whom he called "Joe the Plumber," during the debate on Wednesday.

Has it worked? Not exactly. A Suffolk University poll of Ohio and Missouri finds that name recognition of "Joe the Plumber" is very high in both states -- but only a handful of voters said it made them more likely to vote for the Republican candidate. In Ohio, 68% of respondents had heard the Joe story. Six percent said it made them more likely to vote for McCain; four percent said it made them more likely to vote for Obama. In Missouri a whopping 80% knew of Joe. Eight percent were more likely to vote McCain as a result; 3 percent more likely to vote Obama. In both states, vast majorities said the plumber's story did not affect their decision at all. Meanwhile, Obama is leading McCain in Ohio and is nearly tied with him in Missouri. More from the poll:

With just over two weeks left before the presidential election, voters in the key state of Ohio are giving the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden a 9-point lead (51 percent-42 percent) over the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, according to a poll released today by Suffolk University.

In Missouri, McCain led by 1 percent (45 percent to 44 percent) statewide. He also led the bellwether test of Platte County, Mo.

"If Ohio goes for Obama, it may be lights out for McCain," said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. "At least today, the probability of an Ohio win is supported by the high-single-digit lead in the statewide poll coupled with the Perry County bellwether, which showed Obama leading by 4 percent."

In 2008, Suffolk University bellwethers were 95 percent accurate in predicting straight-up winners in both Democratic and Republican primaries, and, when coupled with statewide Suffolk polls, were 100 percent accurate in predicting straight-up winners.

McCain mentioned "Joe the Plumber" almost constantly throughout the final debate -- even tying him into an attack on Obama's health care plan. But the move led to a "deer in the headlights" moment for the Republican.

"Joe, Senator Obama's plan ... If you are out there, my friend, and you have got employees and you have got kids, if you don't get a health care plan that Sen. Obama mandates, he is going to fine you," McCain said.

"I'm happy to talk to you, Joe, too, if you're out there," Obama responded. "Here is your fine: Zero."

McCain interrupted, asking "Zero?" He stayed frozen in the same position, blinking his eyes in confusion, as Obama continued his answer.

"Zero," Obama said. "You won't pay a fine because as I said in our last debate, and I'll repeat John, I exempt small businesses from the requirement for large businesses that can afford to provide health care to their employees who are not doing it. I exempt small businesses from having to pay into a kitty."

Obama then ripped McCain for proposing to tax the health care benefits individuals will receive from their employer -- a winner for him in past debates.

The Washington Post Fact Checker confirmed Obama's response:

McCain was wrong to state that small businessman "Joe the Plumber" would end up paying a fine if he refused to provide his workers with health insurance. Under the Obama plan, small businesses are specifically exempted from a requirement imposed on large companies that they contribute to a national health fund if they fail to make "a meaningful contribution" to their employees' health care costs.

In their recent deep dive into negative, John McCain and Sarah Palin have hammered Barack Obama for supposedly saying our troops in Afghanistan are just "air raiding villages and killing civilians." One of McCain's recent ads calls the remark "dishonorable." Obama was actually calling for more troops in Afghanistan when he made the comment in August 2007 -- this smear was raised and debunked over a year ago.

Now, the Washington Times reports that John McCain himself once said something remarkably similar:

John McCain in 2000 said because of tactical decisions U.S. troops were put in the position of killing civilians in Kosovo -- something awfully similar to the comments he's now attacking Barack Obama for.

During a Republican primary debate in 2000 McCain called the Clinton strategy in Kosovo "obscene" because it forced troops into using tactics that meant civilians were going to get killed.

"In the most obscene chapter in recent American history is the conduct of the Kosovo conflict when the president of the United States refused to prepare for ground operations, refused to have air power used effectively because he wanted them flying -- he had them flying at 15,000 feet where they killed innocent civilians because they were dropping bombs from such -- in high altitude."

Sarah Palin said Obama should be "disqualified" for his remark about Afghanistan. Naturally, she should hold her running mate to the same standard.

John McCain goes back to the celebrity well with his latest ad, "Disrespectful." The ad accuses Barack Obama's campaign of 'lashing out' at Sarah Palin for stealing the spotlight. It takes two quotes out of context and falsely implies that they came from Obama. It also suggests that calling Palin a liar for her "Bridge to Nowhere" claims is inherently "disrespectful."

Obama "was the world's biggest celebrity," the ad begins. But now "his star's fading" -- presumably because of the Palin's star wattage. "So they lashed out at Sarah Palin ... how disrespectful."

Watch:

Factcheck.org is already debunking the spot, calling it "particularly egregious":

The new McCain-Palin ad "Lashing Out" begins like an earlier ad we criticized, with its reference to Barack Obama's celebrity, but then goes down new paths of deception. It takes quotes from news organizations and uses them out of context in an effort to portray Obama and his running mate, Joe Biden, as unfairly attacking Sarah Palin and making sexist remarks. We've long been a critic of candidates (Obama included) usurping the credibility of independent news organizations and peddling false quotes, and this ad is particularly egregious. We found it airing in Denver, as recorded by the Campaign Media Analysis Group, a unit of TNS Media Intelligence.

Full transcript of the ad:

ANNCR: He was the world's biggest celebrity, but his star's fading.

So they lashed out at Sarah Palin.

Dismissed her as "good looking."

That backfired, so they said she was doing, "what she was told."

Then desperately called Sarah Palin a liar.

How disrespectful.

And how Governor Sarah Palin proves them wrong, every day.

JOHN MCCAIN: I'm John McCain and I approved this message.

Last night, ABC's Jake Tapper reported that officials of a fringe Alaska party once counted Sarah Palin as a member:

Officials of the Alaskan Independence Party say that Palin was once so independent, she was once a member of their party, which, since the 1970s, has been pushing for a legal vote for Alaskans to decide whether or not residents of the 49th state can secede from the United States.

And while McCain's motto -- as seen in a new TV ad -- is "Country First," the AIP's motto is the exact opposite -- "Alaska First -- Alaska Always."

John McCain's campaign reports of her membership in AIP "smears," blaming them on Barack Obama's campaign and Daily Kos. They also sent around Palin's voter registration document, showing her to have been a registered Republican since 1982.

However, TPMmuckraker reports that Palin's husband's affiliation with the group can't be disputed:

This afternoon, the director of Division of Elections in Alaska, Gail Fenumiai, told TPMmuckraker that Todd Palin registered in October 1995 to the Alaska Independence Party, a radical group that advocates for Alaskan secession from the United States.

Besides a short period of a few months in 2000 when he changed his registration to undeclared, Todd Palin remained a registered member of AIP until July 2002 when he registered again as an undeclared voter.

And today, ABC reports that Sarah Palin did attend the 1994 Alaska Independence Party convention:

As part of their pushback against the charges of Lynette and Dexter Clark of the AIP, the McCain campaign says that Palin did not even attend the AIP convention in Wasilla in 1994.

But another former AIP official -- Mark Chryson, chairman of the AIP from 1995 to 2002 -- tells ABC News that "Palin was at the convention in 1994. She was there."

And AIP's Lynette Clark still insists that the governor was a member. "This is like a cat covering up crap in its litter box," she said.

John McCain's new ad hits Barack Obama with a specific and harsh assault on Iran policy. Watch:

The AP points out that the ad is incredibly misleading:

The ad is misleading because it states that Obama said Iran is "tiny" and "doesn't pose a serious threat" without noting that Obama was comparing the threat Iran poses today to the Soviet Union, the nuclear-armed adversary of the U.S. during the Cold War ...

In calling Iran "tiny" compared to the Soviet Union and having a small fraction of the Soviet military force, he noted that direct diplomacy with the Soviets was a bipartisan policy for decades in spite of their threat.

ABC News' Jake Tapper concurs: "Today's new McCain ad -- "Tiny" ... crosses a new line into dishonesty, however, beyond whether or not it's actually airing anywhere."

Marc Ambinder addresses the inherent conflict in reporting on these kinds of ads:

McCain campaign airs provocatively misleading ads.

The press has a conundrum.

If we want to point out how misleading they are, we air the ad.

McCain's campaign wins the point.

If refuse to point out how misleading they are, McCain's campaign escapes criticism.

Obama campaign spokesman Hari Sevugan responds:

"John McCain is distorting Barack Obama's words to cover up for the fact that it's the failed Bush-McCain approach to foreign policy and the Bush-McCain war in Iraq that that have strengthened Iran and endangered Israel. While Barack Obama recognizes that Iran has been the biggest beneficiary of the war in Iraq and that the Bush-McCain fear of tough diplomacy has allowed Iran to spin 3800 centrifuges, threaten Israel, and fund terrorism, John McCain promises more of the same. If John McCain was serious about dealing with the threat from Iran, he would join Barack Obama's bipartisan effort in the Senate to step up sanctions on Iran instead of adopting the same tired, old Bush-Rove playbook."

The Full Ad Transcript:

Script For "Tiny" (TV :30)

ANNCR: Iran. Radical Islamic government. Known sponsors of terrorism.

Developing nuclear capabilities to "generate power" but threatening to eliminate Israel.

Obama says Iran is a "tiny" country, "doesn't pose a serious threat".

Terrorism, destroying Israel, those aren't "serious threats"?

Obama -- dangerously unprepared to be president.

JOHN MCCAIN: I'm John McCain and I approved this message.

John McCain has released yet another ad featuring Hillary Clinton, but this time he's echoing her controversial "3 AM" spot -- he even includes some of the footage, rounded out by clips of bombs, tanks, and other dangerous things that presumably might happen at 3 AM. Then there's the clip of Clinton saying McCain "has a lifetime of experience" while Barack Obama "has a speech he gave in 2002." The narrator ads, "Hillary's right. John McCain for president." Watch:

The timing is particularly bad for Clinton, as she is scheduled to speak at the Democratic Convention Tuesday night.

Barack Obama has responded to the ad tying him to Weatherman William Ayers with an ad of his own. "With all our problems, why is John McCain talking about the sixties, trying to link Barack Obama to radical Bill Ayers?" it says. The ad was put out by an independent group, but McCain's campaign has tried to use Obama's connection to Ayers against him.

The original ad, whose creators released their donors after questioning by the Huffington Post, was funded by one billionaire McCain supporter. The group has sunk nearly $3 million into airing the ad.

Watch Obama's response:

According to Ben Smith, the ad is airing in Ohio.

McCain's campaign has responded in turn to Obama's ad: "The fact that Barack Obama chose to launch his political career at the home of an unrepentant terrorist raises more questions about Senator Obama's judgment than any TV ad ever could," spokesman Brian Rogers said. "And the fact that he's launching his own Convention by defending his long association with a man who says he didn't bomb enough U.S. targets tells us more about Barack Obama than any of tonight's speeches will."

The Republican National Committee's independent expenditure arm is out with its first ad, goading the division between Hillary Clinton supporters and Barack Obama supporters at the Democratic convention.

Transcript:

ANNCR: Who has the experience to govern our nation?

Sen. Clinton: "Senator McCain will bring a lifetime of experience to the campaign. I will bring a lifetime of experience. And Senator Obama will bring a speech he gave in 2002." (Source: CNN 3/8/08)

ANNCR: Barack Obama. He gives a great speech. But Americans must ask ourselves: should we elect the most inexperienced presidential candidate of our times? Or was she right? The Republican National Committee is responsible for the content of this advertising."

The ad airs in Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

UPDATE: Hillary Clinton responds to this and other ads using her words against Obama: "I'm Hillary Clinton and I do not approve that message."

Democrats are more nervous about Barack Obama's prospects than they were a month ago, the New York Times reports. Maybe his new ad -- a jauntier, more aggressive attack than the campaign has released before -- will help. To the tune of Sam Cooke's "Wonderful World," a vocalist sings of John McCain: "I'm not up on the economy ... don't know much about industry ... really can't explain the price of gas ... or what has happened to the middle class." At the end, the ad features no less than three pictures of McCain and President Bush together, with the lyrics "If I could be just like you ... what a wonderful world it would be." A narrator concludes, "Do we really want four more years of the same old tune?" Watch:

The ad is running on national cable and in battleground states.

Full transcript:

"I'm Barack Obama and I approved this message."

Vocalist:

I'm not up on the economy

SUPER: "Economics is not something I've understood as well as I should" - John McCain, December, 2007

Vocalist:

Don't know much about industry.

Really can't explain the price of gas,

Or what has happened to the middle class.

SUPER: Voted with Bush 90% of the time.

Vocalist:

But I know that one and one is two.

And if I could be just like you

What a wonderful world this would be.

SUPER: We can't afford more of the same.

Voiceover:

Do we really want four more years of the same old tune?

***Updated, 2:20 pm***

In response to Barack Obama's VP announcement, John McCain's campaign has been reaching into old tv footage. First they released an ad featuring a clip of Joe Biden questioning Obama's experience at a debate. Now they have an ad saying Hillary Clinton was "passed over" for "speaking the truth" -- about Obama, of course. Watch:

Kathleen Strand, a spokeswoman for Hillary Clinton, responded to the ad with the following statement:

"Hillary Clinton's support of Barack Obama is clear. She has said repeatedly that Barack Obama and she share a commitment to changing the direction of the country, getting us out of Iraq, and expanding access to health care. John McCain doesn't. It's interesting how those remarks didn't make it into his ad."

First Oregon Senator Gordon Smith did it --twice. Now another Republican is touting his connection to Barack Obama in a campaign ad -- Connecticut Rep. Chris Shays. While Smith merely noted that he had worked on legislation with the Democratic nominee, Shays declares that the share a common attribute: "hopefulness." (He also claims John McCain's "straight talk." Watch: