I have blogged about this possibility before. The gist was: if Iran has always been the real target and Iraqi democracy is doomed and was always mostly bullshit anyway--then what American Imperialists will decide to do is join the Sunnis against the Shia in the broader Middle East as Iraq falls apart. That would have been the fallback position all along. It would mean that longstanding ties with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan would be reaffirmed and reinforced. Bush and his boys and girl would have to eat a little crow behind the scenes but those old Arab autocrats would enjoy that. They would nod wisely and forgive the American innocents their naive experiment and offer an oil-drenched handshake in exchange for zillions more in advanced weaponry. They would seal the deal by getting serious about bringing bin Laden down. He's their enemy too, after all--and compared to Shia Iran and its growing network of allies, the splinter group that is Sunni Al Queda is actually peanuts.
That's been my speculation. I've got it classified it in my mind as semi-paranoid, but recent developments give me pause:
1) The Brits withdraw from Basra in what looks like a good old fashioned draw play. Isn't that retreat inviting Iraq to move more obviously into the Shia south?
2) Everybody's ganging up on Maliki now, including clueless stooges in the Democratic party. Is this, in effect, making room for Shia leaders more closely allied with Iran to replace Maliki?
3) All the wise men (plus Hillary) are cooing about how we can "redeploy" to bases in the Kurdish north, apparently a pro-American heaven/haven.
4) Bush lands in Anbar this morning to cement the US commitment to Sunni "tribal leaders" who are now killing Al Queda instead of us. Who are those leaders? A lot of them are former Saddamists, no doubt, and the rest of them are surely in touch with the Saudis, Egyptians and etc. One things for sure: they hate the Shia.
Pretend you're playing Risk or something. Look at those developments and then imagine bombing Iran in concert with those developments coming to a head. Suddenly you are looking at a map in which a bomb-blasted Iranian military gets to extend into the Shia south--but the net effect is a clear line of battle drawn between them and the Sunni west and Kurdish north, both of now firmly allied with the US and backed by the Sunni states and maybe even, at least eventually, the Sunni masses.
This is an insane idea, of course--but so what? Look who's in charge.
So Iraq was done contingent on us ensuring that Iran would not be able to dominate it, and once in Iraq, we would go after Iran and wipe out it's military, and it also allowed us to get out of Saudi Arabia because it was becoming an issue for the House of Saud and was on of the reasons Bin Laden gave for attacking us.
Obviously a Shia controlled government with ties to Iran whose constitution follows Islamic law would never be free of Iranian influence at an early stage and eventually Iranian control. Hence the need for a permanent presence in Iraq, and lets face it, we want to maintain a presence in the region where we can operate freely and not have to get permission from the host country for an operation we deem necesary.
Once we bomb, bomb, bomb Iran, the Shias in Iraq not already targetting US troops will do so, good thing we armed the Sunni's to help us fight AQI, now they can fight Shias, and more important, we will never be able to withdraw from Iraq because Iran would certainly invade a Sunni controlled Iraq once we departed.
Mission accomplished.
I have been claiming that we are seeing the Arab League outed.
Great great post - gotta read this stud more often for his poignant and hilarious analysis.
All this apparent incomptence is intentional and targeted at very different objectives than we all think.
We are still in a cold war with Russia but we just dont know it. We know the KGB controls all of the oil wealth of Russia. I suspect if we dug deep as to who is really funding the neocon effort and other war mongers we would see that it is our comrads on the other side of the world who have the largest untapped reserves of oil and gas in the world. It is in the best interest of Russia and China for that matter for us to depleat our monitary and military resources and get bogged down in a regional conflict. Heck, this is the same playbook we used on Russia that we thought ended the cold war.
Money and blackmail are driving the leaders of this country to make what looks like stupid decisions that are totally supporting those who would wish to eliminate the US as a significant world power.
With China and Russia using Iran as a proxi, I suspect the price we pay for and Iran attack will be very high, and very much to their benifit.
Sounds crazy on first read… but think about it for a while. Who really benifits from what we are doing in the mideast?
Not being a neo-con myself and having no pervey to their interworkings, I can only deduce that their membership are the robber barrons and the corporate elite.(PNAC list not withstanding) I would think they wouldn't need KGB money, or that the KGB would be inclinded to give it.
See me after class - I will tell you what a joke it is?
I have some Iranian clients, and they firmly believe the US bashes the Iranians down about every 25 years to prevent them becoming a major force in the middle east.
As it is now, the people of Iran are the only ones in the middle east who actually like Americans, so naturally the madman running our government and ruining our country thinks it necessary to bomb them.
The big flaw in administration Iran thinking can now be identified in advance; that a three day, surgical, aerial blitzkreig will obliterate all its military capacity, leaving us with no reaction to deal with.
They really thought Iraq would shower them with flower's - Once they said they were free - then it became a free for all.
But you can bet your bottom dollar - it will remain a living hell for all the people in the region - has been for centuries - and now is no diff.
But what does the neo-con's care - they made there money already - once they saw it was over for them - they created the mess - then they stole billions from American tax payer's and leveraged American equity.
But the problem is a simple one - no matter what the neo-con's do - without complete peace and democracy freedom for all people in the middle-east - They will face a hate so deep among the American people - they will burn for a long time.
They lied - and the American People won't fight for a LIE - and will come too hate the LIAR........
No matter how much propoganda fox and other's can throw out - there watched for how many lies they tell among the American people.
Propoganda is useless - when those it's used on see it all as LIE'S ....
So the only risk the neo-con's and pro you know who is playing - is having the gun's turn on them - When the American People demand a stop too the LIE'S ......
We should withdraw, making the Saudis help the Sunnis, militarily and financially, but Saudi would make it come with the caveat that they destroy Al Qaeda of Iraq, as they are a threat to the Saudis.
The Saudis will have to pay the Jordanians to get involved, and the Iranians would help the Shites, and the Iranians do not have the financial reserves to do that without seriously depriving their own people, who are none too pleased, already. The Saudis could take out any hope of the Iranians getting their refined products, and take out Iran's refining rather easily, and Iran would fall, in a very short time.
That is a win-win for us, and the Saudis finally have to use their own money and men to fight the Shites. We need to stop doing their work for them.
They hardly raised a finger during Gulf War I. What is their contribution to the current "coalition forces?" They prefer to fight their battles by proxy; with American men and women. Saudis and the other regional regimes have little in common, except for their hatred of Israel, and mistrust of each other.
On the one hand, I feel it should be the Saudi (and other regional countries' soldiers) who should be involved in stabilizing Iraq.
On the other hand, I fear that prospect very much. Because the same tensions that have torn Iraq apart will come to a head for the entire region.