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Tim Berry

Tim Berry

Posted: September 7, 2007 06:05 PM

iPhone Pricing, Stock prices, and Market Myopia


The news today is Apple stock falling hard in apparent reaction to Apple's announcement of either new iPods, a sharp drop on iPhone prices, or a $100 rebate for early iPhone purchasers. Take your choice, it's yet another example of how poorly stock prices analyze long-term business strategy.

The juxtaposition of the price announcements and the stock price drop are fascinating because good business strategy, once again, gets dinged by the market. Doesn't smart long-term business building ever make stock prices go up?

Dropping the iPhone price makes perfectly good business sense. It's related to the economics that make dumping illegal, gain share quickly in the beginning, combine a cool product with a more accessible price and win customers. Cell phones are extremely sticky compared to a lot of other goods, because of those long-term contracts. Sure, you can charge your price premium and skim the luxury cream off the top of the market, those high margins that market analysts love, but that leaves you, over time, with a small customer base and a target painted on your back. That kind of high-end price strategy was what kept the Macintosh from establishing the market share its quality deserved back in the early days when it could have been possible.

It's good to see Apple avoiding making the same mistakes too many times. It was priced too high, so get it down, and get it out there.

Of course it's more interesting news to quote the unhappy early users who feel somehow cheated by the price drop, but the long-term impact of combining the pricing with a $100 rebate is going to be good for Apple. Give the earlybirds some fun and exclusivity for a while, then give them a rebate, then give them a few million more fellow users.

I'm one of those earlybirds. I was on the Web about 3 minutes after sales opened on June 29. I bought a $599 8-gigabyte iPhone. I'm not offended that somebody else can get the same thing 10 or so weeks later, because I chose to buy when I did. Since I got my first computer back in 1981, everything high tech I've ever bought has been cheaper later on. I used it in the meantime. Will it keep me from buying early the next time something like iPhone happens? No, probably not. I'm a lot more offended by having to pay almost $300 to get the damn thing fixed when I dropped it.

For the record, I don't own Apple stock and I'm not really a stock market watcher either, and I'm not one of those quasi-religious Macintosh advocates. The axe that I'd like to grind is one I've posted about here at the Huffington Post before, stock prices reward short-term managerial thinking and penalize long-term strategy.

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01:27 PM on 09/09/2007
It's called, "Buy the rumor, sell the news". It's an old market trick designed to fleece the market neophyte.

That being said, you don't EVER lose money in the market. You just lose time. Of course, you must HAVE time and not sell in a panic for this to hold true.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
indypete
01:04 PM on 09/09/2007
I've been noticing for years that biz and government seem to operate as if ceos and politicians have no grandchildren. The market seems to be the same way.
04:41 AM on 09/08/2007
My first introduction to stocks was through my father who, as a an employee of Chrysler, received stock as a benefit of employment. The way he made me understand it is that back-in-the day, once a year he would get a divdend statement, look at it, and not really think too much his stocks until the next year.

Of course, back then his stocks were just a little extra money, it wasn't where his retirement fund was invested.

Today, with day traders, many people trade stocks more often and with a far lesser rationale than members of their fantasy baseball team. Although it was very much the intent of Wall Street to get more regular joes involved with the market, the effect has been less-than-impressive.

The sad thing is that all these flippant rash decisions being made by the short-sighted trader is having a real effect on everything from job stability in the US and labor and environmental abuses abroad. It really is time for the nation to stop allowing the Dow Jones figures to be the barometer for our feelings about our country's self-worth and each of us need tofind more productive things to do with our time than think about what's happening with our money every second of the day. Your fantasy baseball and, perhaps even, your family miss you. Get off the ol' e*trade and see what their up to.
11:51 PM on 09/07/2007
Actually, I think the market just rewarded anyone smart enough to sell Apple stock on Tuesday. That was the ideal time to sell because the mystery around any Apple announcement generates incredible hype and interest, causing the gullible to buy in. After the announcement those chumps sell, thinking they'll make a buck, not realizing all the other chumps are also selling, driving down the price. This lets the guys who sold on Tuesday buy their shares back today and pocket a healthy profit. Buy low, sell high.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dadw5boys
Disabled Vietnam Vet
01:07 PM on 09/09/2007
What was the daily average of sells the 4 to 6 days prior to the announcment of the drop in price and the rebate.
Was there a skewed line.
That skewed line is where the insiders were selling in preparation for the announcments.
Market adjust for bad news before bad news is released so small investors get squashed like bugs and the investment taken as profits.