They call this synchronicity. As I write this I'm looking at more than 500 responses to our small business survey that we started two days ago. And I'm also looking at an unusually bleak, cold, and wintery scene in Western Oregon, which is normally green and gray and rainy this time of year, but is now white and icy and arctic. And there's a match there.
You don't have to take my word for it. At the end of this post we're putting three maps showing different views of the data, including an interactive one you can click on to open up individual comments. And below that, you can download the raw data and add your own insights -- or what the heck, show me where I'm interpreting the data wrong. We'd also really like to hear from you about it, please leave your thoughts as comments on this post.
The quick summary is that the situation out there in the world of small business doesn't look good. On the interactive map here, you can click on any circle to open up the actual responses we got, including comments.
Interactive Map with Comments:
View Larger Map
For example, just about a third of the businesses that responded have had layoffs already, and almost half have reduced hours. Overall, they say layoffs are about equal to 15% of the total remaining jobs from the companies in the survey.
The results so far are surprising to me. I would not have guessed that 32 percent of the companies have already laid people off. I feel like things are bad, but that's worse than I expected. And I would not have guessed that 49% have reduced hours.
It gets worse as I browse through the predictions for next year. The average guess is sales declining by 49%.
The hardest to read are the ones that aren't trying to blame or complain, but just describing their situation. For example:
I cannot overstate how profoundly sad I am to have had to lay off staff members and reduce the hours of those who remain. I have been working like mad trying to figure out a way to survive in these enormously trying times. I've always provided our staff with health insurance benefits and year's end bonuses. Right now I am unable to even pay our monthly bills.
Many are profound in their simplicity. This one projected 70 percent decline in sales, adding,
We are event planners. No one wants to look like they are spending money and no one wants to look like they are celebrating.
And I couldn't help noticing the one saying sales will go down 70 percent and describing the situation eloquently enough with one simple word, an expletive.
There are also those bright spots, the exceptions. One owner expects to double sales next year; they sell nutritional cleansing products. A business that ships Maine lobsters via airfreight reports strong growth because the price of lobster is down. An insurance broker expects to double the business next year because "people and businesses have quit being lazy about their finances."
For the record, this survey -- like the vast majority of the surveys we see these days -- doesn't have the statistical seal of approval we'd get if we rigorously randomized our respondents to represent a cross section of American business. That's very hard to do, and few surveys really do it. What we do have, however, is the collective opinion of the people who saw the earlier post and chose to take the survey. How they are different from a true cross section is anybody's guess.
Map 1: Showing the numbers laid off or work reduced
The circles show the zipcodes of our respondents, the size of the circle indicates the total numbers of employees, and the color shows how many of those numbers were laid off or had work reduced.
Map 2: Showing respondents affected
In this map the circles show the zipcodes of our respondents, the size of the circles indicates the number of employees affected, and the color shows how many of those employees lost their jobs and how many just had hours reduced.
Excel Version of the Data:
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/HuffPost-SmallBiz-Survey.xlsx
Raw Text File of the Data:
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/HuffPost-SmallBizSurvey.txt
Follow Tim Berry on Twitter: www.twitter.com/Timberry
Consumer taxes are a last resort to feed hungry governments at the expense of the majority of the population who are barely surviving. This is wrong because it is a cruel way of making taxpayers of those with small incomes. The fairest way for the government to support itself is by reducing the salaries of overpaid employees and laying off those that are not needed. But it is easier for politicians to bully the poor and weak so the cruel consumer taxes will soon be put into force. The outcome will be billions bled from the pockets of the most needy and poverty increased to a new level.
Know any politicians from Arkansas who supported THEM?
IF YOU HAVE AN IDEA BUSINESS THAT WOULD EMPLOY A LOT OF PEOPLE FOR ABOUT A YEAR.
NOW IS THE TIME TO HEAD TO THE BANKS FOR SMALL BUSINESS LOANS AND STATE INVESTMENTS.
NOW IS THE TIME !
I employ people to loosen bolts on the bridge during the day - you employ people to tighten bolts on the bridge at night. I get federal SBA financing, you get it through the state, no one will catch on.
I sure hope Mr. O has a better plan......
Not something a lot of people and companies have been doing.
President George H. W. Bush 9/11/1991
This being my first time and in as bad an economy as this is I am still saying, what the hell just happened. The toughest part was telling my wife. We had talked about work the week before and it sounded like my position was solid.
Let's hope that he follows through with that promice.
I go to a bankruptcy auction yesterday. The ersewhile warehouse manager tells me that he has looked all over for a job. He says that 26 years down the drain has left him very concerned. the auctioned products went for depression era prices.
My own business is down 50 %. My friend's busines is down as much and his two employees are wondering how long they can hang on.
Money is drying up. People who were living comfortably on borrowed money are suddenly saddled with enormous debt and no sources of borrowing. Worst yet, those who have money are not spending either.
My baker's business has picked up during this holiday season. Why? He speculates that people are staying home to entertain or celebrate to save money, therefore, buying more bakery items.
Even the drug dealers appear to be on the skids. Night time traffic is virtually non-existent between twelve midnight and 5:00 a.m. In boom times its hard to sleep between those hours for the commotion and gun shots.
Now, even the weather is conspiring against us.