On Monday the United Nations unveiled a first draft of the negotiating text for climate talks later this year in Paris. That text has been reduced from more than 80 pages to 20 and will be further revised in Bonn, Germany, Oct. 19-23, to advance a final global climate deal in Paris.
The many proposals in parentheses -- referencing items still to be negotiated -- include details and a deadline for a long-term goal for reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions: to keep the increase in worldwide temperatures since pre-industrial times below 2 degrees Celsius. On the basis of the 146 climate pledges made thus far that goal is unobtainable, according to Climate Action Tracker, an independent scientific analysis produced by four research organizations. It indicates that, if implemented, those pledges would result in aggregated global warming of 2.7 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels.
The pre-amble of the draft agreement recognizes the relationship among climate change, poverty eradication, and sustainable development and takes into account the vulnerabilities and needs of the least-developed countries. It also notes issues on which disagreement may arise: time frames, the extent to which commitments to the agreement are binding, and building of climate resilience in the poorest and the most at-risk countries.
The draft indicates a potential increase in financing by rich countries of emissions reduction efforts in poor countries. Some $100 billion per year from both public and private sources has already been promised by 2020. It leaves other details, such as the role of carbon markets, unclear, and reference to a zero emissions goal has been removed.
Other key points in the draft: The potential agreement would reflect "common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in light of different national circumstances," and it might require countries to communicate -- and be prepared to tighten -- their emissions goals every five years.
India Commits to Reduction in Its Carbon Emissions Intensity
On Oct. 1, the date by which countries had agreed to announce emissions reductions pledges ahead of the U.N. climate talks in Paris, India, the world's third largest carbon polluter, announced its plan to reduce its rate of greenhouse gas emissions and to ramp up its production of renewable energy.
Unlike other major polluting economies, India did not commit to an absolute reduction in carbon emissions levels. Instead, it committed to reduce the intensity of its fossil fuel emissions 33-35 percent from 2005 levels by 2030, while producing 40 percent of its electricity from non-fossil-fuel sources by the same year. In that timeframe, according to the terms of the pledge, India's economy would grow roughly sevenfold, compared with 2005 levels, but its carbon emissions would grow only threefold.
Despite its commitment to renewable energy, India plans to expand coal power to satisfy its energy needs.
Although its pledge was not conditioned on financial contributions from wealthier countries, India does want a technology transfer as well as aid from the Green Climate Fund, which solicits donations from wealthy countries to help poor countries adapt their economies to lower-carbon technologies. Germany has already responded, announcing that it will give India $2.25 billion to develop a clean energy corridor and solar projects.
Among notable emissions reduction pledges from the 51 submitted last week is that of Brazil, which became the first major developing economy to announce an absolute cut: 37 percent below 2005 levels by 2025 and 43 percent by 2030.
Report: Energy Industry Must Prepare for Global Warming-Related Extreme Weather
The World Energy Council (WEC) warns that the energy industry needs to prepare for extreme weather events caused by global warming. According to its Road to Resilience report, such events have more than quadrupled -- from 38 in 1980 to 174 in 2014 -- and are expected to become regular occurrences, increasing the likelihood of power supply disruptions.
"We are on a path where today's unlikely events will be tomorrow's reality" said WEC Secretary General Christoph Frei. "We need to be smarter and imagine the unlikely. Traditional 'Fail-Safe' systems, based on predicted events, no longer operate in isolation. New 'Safe-Fail' systems, which recognize that unexpected weather events are occurring and that systems which go down need smarter, not stronger, solutions. This new approach is essential if we are to cope with new weather patterns and phenomena such as the more powerful El Niño currently experienced in many parts of the world."
The WEC report touts modular designs and autonomous networks like micro-grids to avoid the energy system interdependence that stalled recovery from events such as Hurricane Sandy as well as a wide energy mix to prevent infrastructure vulnerability to long-term shifts in climatic conditions.
The report, which will be presented at the G20 meeting in Istanbul, calls on the private sector to increase financing for reducing that vulnerability and on governments to develop a regulatory framework to help the sector come up with ways to boost infrastructure investment and to define required levels of resilience.
One key finding of the report: The costs of resilience are neither included nor counted as beneficial in the financing of energy infrastructure, but tailored financial instruments can convert system risks into investment rewards.
The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University's Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.