Sunday Watch 9-14-08: In Which Sarahmania Subsides and the Unmentionable is Mentioned

[originally published on CJR.org, the Web site of the Columbia Journalism Review]

The possibility that Sarah Palin may well find herself one proverbial heartbeat away from the presidency has flushed out a hitherto buried issue, that of John McCain’s age and health.

George Stephanopoulos raised the subject this Sunday, quoting Obama surrogate Sen. Claire McCaskill’s observation that the next-in-line to “one of the oldest presidents we've ever had” has never met a foreign leader.

The second part of McCaskill’s statement strikes me as a blazing-red herring—you can be smart about foreign policy without having met Hu Jintao, and dumb about it while having met, say, Saddam Hussein (which, say, Donald Rumsfeld had certainly done). But McCain’s sudden choice of Sarah Palin certainly does throw into relief not only the question of his judgment—or “management style,” as we call it nowadays in America—but his longevity. McCaskill wasn’t backing down: “I think what we're talking about is a reality. Other people talk about his melanoma. We're talking about a reality here that we have to face.”

To which McCain’s surrogate, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, said: “I frankly find this disrespectful in the extreme. This is ageism. All you need to do is look at the schedule that John McCain has kept for the last two years to realize that he is one of the most vigorous, most energetic campaigners, frankly, in my judgment, out there."

It’s fascinating how the Republicans have suddenly discovered all those damnable “-isms”—the ones they used to mock as products of the fevered imaginations of the politically correct—but never mind. This issue deserves some grown-up scrutiny. Enough hiding behind decorum.

No spring rooster myself, I must say I’m impressed by McCain’s energy. Anyone who can maintain the pace of a campaign that runs longer than two baseball seasons and a basketball season combined has my respect in the vigor column. I’m not the first to notice that the campaign—just the campaign—has streaked Barack Obama’s hair with grey. But energy is neither health nor a promise of either longevity or fitness. The citizens are entitled to some straight talk.

Stephanopoulos, to his credit, has raised the issue before, speaking to Lindsay Graham the other Sunday: "So Sen. McCain wins and, God forbid, tragedy strikes. You'd feel confident, safe and secure a year from now if Governor Palin were president?” Everyone, even McCain, knows the second slot on the ticket has four functions: helping number one get elected; presiding over the Senate; attending the funerals of dictators (as John McCain said way back when he had a sense of humor); and finally, overwhelmingly, stepping in if the president dies or becomes disabled.

Let’s go to the actuarial tables. Harold Pollack, faculty chair of the Center for Health Administration Studies at the University of Chicago, has put it this way: “The typical man of Sen. McCain's age faces a one in seven chance of dying before finishing his [first] term, and a 30% chance of not finishing out a second one.” Mark Kleiman, professor of policy studies at the UCLA School of Public Policy and Social Research, notes that “the incidence of severe disability over the next four years of McCain’s life is…7 percent.” In sum, then, to quote Kleiman: “the probability that Palin would have to take over at some point in McCain's first term is 21%.”

These are numbers for typical American men. You may, if you like, remark on the X chromosome he inherited from his mother, who is evidently healthy on the far side of ninety-six; but then you are honor-bound to note that he has already outlived his father, who died at seventy. And surely the McCain’s longevity is not improved by his history of four malignant melanomas.

Long live Sen. McCain! But think about that 21 percent. You get better odds with Russian roulette.

Comments

[BassMent]

Yeah, I don't think this is unmentionable at all... and in fact, the people I hear talking about it most are older than me (I'm 48). The suggestion that I've heard about Palin from the McCain camp - that she'd "pick up the things she'd need to know quickly" - is an insult to thinking Americans. Palin shows the same personal quality that we've observed for 8 years in Bush: she makes up for not knowing by being ideologically inflexible and overly confident in her decisiveness. Like Bush, she'd make her decisions based on what God tells her to do, and that would be good enough for her. And look where that kind of decision making has brought us.

Sarah Palin is not only not "ready" to be president, she will never be an acceptable candidate for the office, because she will never admit to the possibility that she might be wrong. People who are 100% certain that they are right 100% of the time should NEVER be in positions of power.

[lvdragonlady]

Darn right it is ageism.
I personally do not want ANYONE that old running America.
Ideas and opinions of said individual would be to aniquated to fit into today's world, it is as simple as that.

[kayatarms]

I am not so sure that older seniors are offended, I think they are very realistic. Ones that I speak with are quite the opposite, they worry about the fact that he is their age and do worry with ailments, setbacks, alzheimers, dementia with either themselves or with their family/friends, they express in most cases that he is in their opinion too old to be President. They think they are old,and just attribute that to themselves. Also, (I visit a senior retirement place) they feel less inclined now that he placed Palin on the ticket (ones on the fence) especially now. However, I see they are rallying around Joe Biden feels he is not quite as old but trust his face, been around on the scene. I guess it depends on which seniors you are asking...a spry senior or a more sedate one. None that I know are at all offended. They think it's realistic TOO ask!

[pizzmoe]

As Americans, we are allowed to question his judgment and his age. It isn't inappropriate.

[wunderkammers]

I think the TV networks will be real careful with the McCain health/age issue. Look at the demographics (and advertising) for the nightly news programs. How will an older audience react? Will they say: "They're right , at my age I couldn't handle the job;" or instead respond: "Damn kids, this is what happens when you have 'twenty-somethings' write the news. Give me that remote!"

[Miravanguild]

Indeed it calls into question his judgement, the fact that he'd cynically chose this woman because of her ovaries and religious politics after one meeting and no serious vetting simply because he wanted to bring back the base and win the election.. What happened to his moto, "country first"? As the media vets her more and more troubling facts are coming out.... That interview, she didn't know what the Bush Doctrine was and sorry just because she lives next to Russia that doesn't make her an expert on Russian affairs.. This would all be laughable, EXCEPT, If McCain wins and the worst happens, this woman who didn't have a clue on what the vice president's job is, which calls into question how much knowledge she has of the Constitution, could be president..

[PatBurns]

The true outcry right now should be why isn't she taking questions? This is scarey! Obviously someone who thinks Freddie & Fanny are government entities doesn't understand the economy; someone who still relates the Iraq war with 9/11 doesn't understand foreign policy. The same Bush craziness in lipstick! I'd bet she couldn't show where Iraq was on a world map!