Terror Squads and Smile Brigades: Can China Lighten Up?

Here's a bold prediction: the 2008 Olympics will not be an Orwellian creep show or Fellini film gone bad.

In the end, the people of Beijing will relax and have fun.

High Anxiety. Granted, the signs to date have not been good. In fact, they point to failure. Current goings on do not telegraph a modern, open Middle Kingdom. The world shuddered at the government's ham-handed, tone-deaf response to the Tibetan protests that erupted in May. Before the Sichuan earthquake, the Torch Relay was an off-putting, nationalistic victory lap. More recently, the entire Olympic infrastructure has been girded to prepare for catastrophe. All resources -- from 100,000 security forces to surface-to-air missiles that surround the principal stadium -- have been mobilized to counter omnipresent terrorist threats, real or imagined. Visas, even for foreigners on business, are scarce. Beijing hotels, while not Andromeda Strain ghost towns of the SARS period, are suffering. Room rates have plummeted. Scores of clubs, both illicit and PG-rated, have been shuttered.

Is Beijing really so short-sighted? Will it risk spoiling a once-in-a-millennium coming out extravaganza by overblowing fears of terrorism and organized protest? Even locals, torn between defending officialdom and ruing its clumsiness, are lowering their own expectations of success. A JWT colleague tepidly defended recent bans when he explained, "The country and its guests need stability. Any 'incident' would be disastrous. An 'Olympic pass' will be good enough."

Actually, one suspects only 50% of the party pooping springs from conventional authoritarian paranoia. The rest is driven by hunger for brownie points. Junior- and mid-level local apparatchiks are falling over themselves to zealously realize the new imperial fiat: 安全第 (Safety First!), a stately four-character exhortation, ubiquitously splashed across headlines and red banners. Random entertainment curbs and rumored edicts against persons of color in bars smack of small-bore, bureaucratic overreach, not the tentacled omnipresence of Big Brother. The Chinese mobilize resources, and emotions, peerlessly. When survival or national dignity is seen to be threatened, they protect themselves by vigorously stepping in line. From the mass defeminization triggered by Mao's 1949 proclamation that "Women hold up half to sky!" to the flood of capital unleashed by Deng Xiao Ping's 1992 mandate "To get rich is glorious," implementing central commandments has always been a competitive blood sport in the Middle Kingdom.

And let's not forget that the Emperor of the XXIX Olympiad is none other than Xi Jinping, Vice President of China and likely successor to Hu Jintao, the current supremo of Communist Party, government and military. When Xi speaks, people don't just listen. They scurry.

Joyful Celebration. But let's not lose hope. China, a society preternaturally attuned to the slightest modulation in political correctness, turns the tap of emotions on and off and on again with rhythmic efficiency. The country has now been officially declared "safe from incident" I predict, within a week, "smiles" and "fun" will officially be declared "correct" again. The Peoples' Daily and other mouthpieces will instruct the masses to greet foreigners joyously, with outstretched arms and brilliant smiles. The people will be freed to "celebrate." The lights will go on. Eyes will sparkle.

Yes, foreigners will be impressed -- no, stunned -- by an opening extravaganza worth of De Mille; a streamlined, post-modern Beijing; China's stratospheric gold medal count; and infectious primal ambition. But they may also be moved.

Why? Because the warmth and cheer will be sincere. Despite the country's tiresome fear of losing face, despite mechanical proclamations of national glory, despite the damn seriousness of it all, the Chinese will rejoice. When the Han feel safe, they let loose. And, in broad historical terms and despite challenges all know lay ahead, chaos-free progress - the PRC's ground zero of desire -- is at hand. So the Chinese, matchless strivers, will celebrate a Herculean industrial achievement, an increasingly civil society, and the dawn of a Pacific (not Chinese) Century. They will celebrate a journey of a people and nation, a long march that has, after decades of struggle, delivered them to modernity's doorstep. They will celebrate that the world -- perhaps, just perhaps -- may be ready to accept China as a rightful player the global stage. Freed from worry, emotions will uncork. The people will reach out and, perhaps unwittingly, touch the hearts of the visitors in their midst.

Ethnocentric? Perhaps. Jingoistic? Maybe. But, for those who approach the Han worldview with an open mind, China's brand of passion will stir emotions. Its pride will be real and, all things considered, deserved.