Iraq Crisis Threatens Bush-Petraeus "Surge" Strategy As Bankrupt

Central to the Bush-Petraeus Iraq strategy is to pacify and confuse American public opinion during the 2008 elections, an approach Gen. Petraeus calls "slowing down the American clock" to gain time for the counterinsurgency to continue. This week's events in Basra suggest that US strategy is collapsing amidst its own contradictions.

This is the most important opportunity for critics to question the "surge" since it began last year.

Here is what is happening.

To quell the Sunni insurgency and create an image of gradual progress, the US has insisted provincial elections be held in Iraq this October, one month before the American elections. The expectation is that disenfranchised groups who boycotted the 2005 elections will gain significant representation in the Iraqi parliament, a prospect that threatens the sectarian coalition of Shi'a and Kurdish parties now controlling the regime. The Shi'a bloc includes Maliki's Dawa and the former Supreme Command of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq [SCIRI]. Their rivals are the impoverished Shi'a followers of Moktada al-Sadr of Sadr City and many towns in the South, whose military forces are known as the Mahdi Army.

Maliki agreed to the provincial elections, it appears, in exchange for Bush's and Petraeus' permission to launch a crushing offensive against the Sadr forces who have come to power on the streets of Basra in the wake of Britain's withdrawal. Maliki and his US sponsors call them "criminal gangs", but it is clear that Maliki's intent is to weaken or destroy the Sadr forces before the election.

The four-day offensive has failed so far, provoking widespread violence from Basra to Mahmudia, Hilla, Diwaniya, Kut and the streets of Baghdad. Hundreds have been killed or wounded. Maliki's forces are being exposed as unable to fight without US airpower bombarding positions as small as those for mortar crews. The prospect of US or British intervention in Basra grows by the hour. Tens of thousands of Shi'a are protesting on the streets of Sadr City.

So much for the surge. The US is now in panic mode, trying to ensure the survival of its unpopular client regime in Baghdad.

This is much more than a power struggle between Shi'a sects. The forces of Moktada al-Sadr consistently oppose the US occupation itself and call for American troop withdrawals. al-Sadr himself has outwitted the US commanders who have tried everything from arresting him to coopting him since 2003. Now Petraeus finds himself dependent on al-Sadr's unilateral cease-fire to keep the lid on Baghdad, while at the same time backing Maliki's war against al-Sadr's militias in Baghdad.

Petraeus is due to testify before Congress April 8-9, and faces the greatest public relations crisis of his tenure in Iraq. It is an opportunity for the presidential candidates to be questioned about the viability of their proposals to leave thousands of American advisers and trainers behind - on the failing side of a sectarian war, as the events in Basra are revealing.

Comments

[Rule Of Law]

Hey reader guys--whole bunch of posts missing--whazzup?

[Rule Of Law]

Tom, the tribes in that region have been fighting for a long time. The notion of Iraq et al, is just lines left over from the British ignoring the racial/religious realities on the ground. The British and the French in the time of their Empires tried, and failed, just as we are, to impose foreign order on the people in the Middle East.

The reason we are in Iraq, is for the oil! To keep it for us--control production/price to enrich the companies that fill Republican campaign coffers--and keep it from the Chinese whose economy is Bush's greatest threat, plus the debt they hold that allows him to continue this invasion without raising taxes.

Suggesting we fight to protect America is worse than wrong--It is idiotic. The fact that some Americans and military support our people dying for Corporate Interests, sickens me. The money we've spent on this atrocity could've bought off every country in the region, secured oil until the ground runs dry, with enough left for a good start on energy independence. All this without stirring up sectarian hatreds that put us in the cross hairs merely because we are somewhere we shouldn't be!

When people write in saying how much you or I must hate our country, I always try to imagine how they would feel if they woke up one morning to find the Red Chinese or French Army stationed in their city? My guess is, they wouldn't like it much.

[jdm58]

Our military strategists fail to realize, over and over, no matter where they fight, a fundamental truth. When fighting someone like al Sadr or bin Laden, or Hamas for that matter, who rally forces behind them under the belief that "God is on their side", it doesn't matter how much money they have, or who is backing them, or who is calling for support to fight them. They will fight, to the bitter end. Death ceases to matter, family ceases to matter, only the cause is of importance. We will continue to be on the side of futility, until we understand that principle.
The Al Saud family gets it- it's why they have gone out of their way to accomodate the Wahabi religious leaders in their own country, without whose support their monarchy will crumble around them like a glass house in an earthquake. It's why Iran will never fall to us, no matter how agressively we sabre rattle, and no matter how much the average Iranian may disagree with his government. It's why we need to rally around secular governments, such as exist in Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, Egypt. It is why it is so important to maintain peace in Pakistan, and support a rebuilding of the social infrastructure in Afghanistan, before the Tailiban takes hold. Even if we don't agree politically, the political disagreement pales in comparison to the force of the underdog who believes he is fighting for God.

[Rule Of Law]

I agree, to a point--You can easily substitute any strong belief for a revolutionary to fight for. Those "godless" Vietnamese put up a pretty good fight for their country because they believed in something that we here in protected America haven't had to believe in for a long time. Freedom from foreign tyranny! And we did pretty good ourselves, once, back in the day.

So, in order to avoid the whole "Jihadist Conspiracy" neo-con knee jerk, I prefer to leave religion out of the equation. The Mahdi Army might scream about Allah and the great satan when the cameras are on, but you get most any Iraqi aside and they'll tell you that all they really want is water that runs when they turn the tap and electricity for more than four hours a day. Oh, plus that freedom from foreign tyranny thing...that seems to override religion, nationality, you name it.

I totally agree with your take on being friends with the other states in the region. Diplomacy is always the better way to go when you want to do business with folks. And you are right again when you say that the harder we push, the harder they will fight back. If we took our army out and used that money to help them rebuild what we've destroyed that would be a good first step.

[cdhphoto]

Mr. Hayden,

If you hold such disdain for the United States and for those of us who stand at her gates, why don't you just leave? Take another trip to visit some communist outpost and stay. I'm sure they'd be glad to have you. And bring your ex.
If you have nothing constructive to add to your bile, please stay silent. For everyone's sake, at least voluntarily relegate yourself to obscure references in cartoon sitcoms.

[Rule Of Law]

HI! At last count, cd, it doesn't look like you won any hearts or minds here!

[RumiSouth]

"Stand at her gates?" Honestly, where do you warons come up with this garbage? You people are living in a fantasy born out of crappy 80s movies like "Red Dawn." Wake up, already.

[cdhphoto]

Waron. That's clever. Hope you don't mind if I steal that one. You're right, I'm a bloodthirsty killer who goes to sleep each night dreaming of my next chance to shoot something. If you had even the remotest inkling of what you're talking about you might curb your knee-jerk reactions. And you missed the reference, I was going for "A few Good Men."

[ScooterLiddy]

Since you are clearly Anti-American you should leave, sir. Anyone who supports the occupation supports the bankruptcy of our Republic and ipso facto is Anti-American.

[cdhphoto]

I'm Anti-American. That's rich. Thanks for clearing thet up for me though. I just wish you had done so earlier, I could have done something different for the last 18 years. I am anti-idiocy. And idiocy does not follow party lines. You have no idea what I do or do not support. I'm in a good mood though so I'll tell you. I support my brothers and sisters who get shot at. I support the families of those who have died wearing our country's uniform. I support every man and woman who puts on a uniform and takes an oath to defend, with their life if necessary, your right to declare your ignorance in public.

[laocoon]

If you are against freedom of speech maybe you are the one who should find another country that suits your viewpoint.

[cdhphoto]

HuffPost's Pick

I'm all for freedom of speech, that's why I wear the uniform I do. Quite honestly, I'm just fed up with hearing seemingly educated people like Hayden and his ilk blathering on about how much they hate what's going on without offering any constructive suggestions. Meanwhile, his viralic dissent does nothing but encourage an enemy who would make no distinction between killing him and me. They know they must simply be patient and soon enough, those with less intestinal fortitude and other such sympathizers will eventually allow them to have the run of the playground.

[desmirl]

If brains were money, the Bush Administration would be running the greatest deficit in the history of this republic. Oh, wait! They are!

[TXfemmom]

As though Petreaus would admit the truth or tell the truth, hah.

He is a bought and paid for brown noser and has an ego larger than Karl Rove. However, the Dems better darned well finally show some gumption and nail him and Bush's lies.

[research]

End the Goddamn Iraq occupation War Crime NOW!

[Rule Of Law]

The invasion and occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan is a crime and a tragedy. That said, please consider the state of our People here in America: The war, as horrible as it is, is just a cover for the destruction of the Constitution and our nation. The best, and only way to end that war, is by protecting Our Freedoms here!

Executive Order #11000 allows the government to move people into "work brigades" under government supervision. Kind of like Auschwitz, only in Cleveland or Richmond.

The Military Commissions Act of 2006 allows the government to arrest and hold anyone indefinitely without formal charges or legal representation.

Executive Order # 11921 says the President can declare a state of emergency that is not defined, and can not be reviewed by Congress for 6 months.

PDD51 allows the President dictatorial control without checks/balances from congress.

The Real ID Act is supposed to take effect in May 08 where we allcarry a national ID; One they want to put an RFID chip in so they cantrack all our movements. Anyone without it can't board a plane, train or open a bank account. The next step is chips in People!

We may still have the "right" to free speech, assembly or religion, but You can be arrested with no trial, bail, lawyer, or explanation. if the government can arrest you without formal charges, legal representation indefinitely, it is essentially no different than the Soviet Union, Nazi Germany or a third world dictatorship.

[Rule Of Law]

Under these rules, Tom, you'd still be in Jail in Chicago...

[godsbreath64]

Tom, when you weave relevance and clarity we remember the hope that is American.


What a freeking beacon.


If anything happens over there this week, the people's morritorium is due. This is a horific war machine and their quarter lap-media.


The only thing they will listen to $$$. Thats what the hope of America is down to.


Just outstanding, Tom.


Peace and pizza!

[UNCLEJOE]

There is the obvious retaliation if Bush bombs Iran; besides placing American troops in Iraq in a deadly crossfire... Iran has missiles that can reach Israel. Ironically, the Israeli Clerics who control the government and Aipac, and who are strong advocates for the US attack on Iran will be the first to suffer: The Iranians no doubt have thousands of missiles pointed at Israel as well as the Green Zone in Iraq. Preemptive bombing of Iran is suicidal both for Israel and our vulnerable 150,000 sacrificial men and women in Iraq.

Bush has to be stopped from committing this last of a series of military blunders that have backfired with disastrous results, repercussions that have weakened our economy and decimated our military forces. And this Iran invasion, that 'Retired" General Fallon had warned us about only last month, will certainly give Bush the excuse he has been looking for to declare Marshal Law, institute a national draft and postponing the General Election in November.

[TN]

You mean the Bush,Patreaus, McCain surge strategy. What a coincidence, McCain is there last week and everything is Peachy, and once he leaves all hell breaks loose. I am so glad Obama didn't go there...know what I mean.

[researcher]

bye bye american imperialism. the economy will crash and the war mongering will end in the destruction of the middle class.

there is a god and karma for americans war mongering around the world and for killing one million vietnamese.

how proud i stand for being a vietnam and iraqi war protester.

where is jane when we need her?

and we call mc war a national hero true definition of imperialism for a country.

[Evelyn]

Read Naomi Klein's Shock Doctrine. This is not a series of mistakes--it's a plan to obliterate a region in order to make the world safe for free-market economics and the money it puts in the pockets of a small elite at the top of the pyramid.

[AbbieXHoffman]

Well done Tom. You are one of the only people left that is reporting on what really matters. Do you have any ideas what we should do? Just pull the out now? If so, can you please use your influence to make this the central focus of the democratic debate. We need answers, action and committment to getting us the h*ll out of there.

We need your guidence, since I am not seeing Obama or Clinton giving us detailed answers on this, can you remind them step up the discussion on this.

Peace

[bobo209]

Terrible rumors from Russia continue to swirl around the Middle East that the Cheney-Bush junta has decided to bomb Iran on April 4th or 6th, targeting not only nuclear-power research facilities but ships, planes, antiaircraft installations, and the Iranian pentagon. Apparently the nuclear-power reactor being built by Russian companies will be spared, but not much else.
Will it happen? Certainly the neocon hate network is working overtime to make it so. Bush fired the anti-neocon Admiral Fallon. One thing we know for sure: it will be the typical Bush administration snafu, with horrific consequences for the region and the world, not to speak of the Iranian people, and reap much trouble for the US empire. Indeed, it could mark the end of the empire if, as Bill Lind worries, the Iranians in retaliation cut off water-food-ammo supply routes to US troops in Iraq, and, with the help of Shiite militians, capture large numbers of them. Need I mention that Ron Paul, our champion of peace, is the leading opponent of war on Iran?

[The 13 Colonies]

I'm afraid that's exactly what the idiots in this administration are going to do..Has anyone watched the series Jericho? It's pretty scary, as that could be US, and gw could declare martial law. Then there won't be an election, and the neo-cons WIN....................................................................................................

[Guitarsandmore]

If Bush attacks Iran, declares marshall law, and cancels the elections, its time for a fucking bloody revolution in this country!!!