The winds of change have brought Democrats a big advantage in the races for the White House, U.S. House and Senate in 2008. The opportunity for the emergence of a governing Democratic majority is unprecedented.
Democrats have the Republicans to thank for this historic opening in 2008. The Republicans bet their political strategy on suburban and exurban voters who soured on Bush and the war in Iraq after 2004. The over-reach on Social Security in 2005, Katrina, Tom DeLay and losing in 2006 all hurt. During 2007, Republicans suffered a year-long "branding moment" during fights over Iraq and children's health care. The result was that the public has concluded that Republicans are Bush allies and enablers. Bush's own unpopularity has reached record-setting levels--surpassing even Nixon's unpopularity.
The impact of all this has been dramatic. A full 22 House Republicans chose to retire rather than face voters. These retirements, combined with a dozen or so other competitive races, have tilted the House election landscape to the advantage of the Democrats.
The same is true of the Senate. There are as many as 10 competitive Senate races--setting up the opportunity for Democrats to "shoot the moon," winning the White House, a bigger House majority and 60 votes in the Senate in one sweep. It would be very tough but there is a path to 60 seats.
It doesn't hurt that the National Republican Congressional Committee and National Republican Senatorial Committee are the Keystone Cops of American politics. The Republican message is tired and wandering, a litany of anti-Obama, anti-Clinton and anti-Pelosi tirades. Republicans have not stood up to say they believe in anything. The Republicans don't have any ideas or solutions to change America. The GOP message vacuum amounts to political death in a year when 70 percent of the public thinks the country is on the wrong track.
The only hint of an exception to this anti-change message from the Republicans appears in occasional rhetoric--and it is only rhetoric--from John McCain. Make no mistake, John McCain is more of the same: McCain means more of Bush, and more of Bush's policies.
On the war, McCain would increase the number of troops in Iraq and keep them there at least through his entire presidency if not for 100 years. This is Bush on steroids.
On the economy, McCain will bring Americans the same Bush economic policies that have people making less at work and paying more in car payments, doctors' bills and mortgages. And the McCains with their $100 million fortune, nine houses, private jet and $200,000 for house servants are totally out of touch with average families.
And the senator who threw his name on campaign finance legislation has a campaign literally run by a lobbyist (Rick Davis) and another lobbyist who made lobbying calls aboard the Straight Talk Express (Charlie Black). It is no surprise since corporate giveaways are a big part of his ideas--the top five oil companies alone would get some $3.8 billion a year in tax breaks.
But McCain is trying gamely to re-brand the Republicans. You see it mostly in his ads: phrases like "bold solutions" and "big ideas for serious problems." Toss in "straight talk" and the ironic "not tired old politics" closing on a recent ad and a clear picture of an attempt to save the sinking Republican Party emerges.
A change message is McCain's best chance at victory--and the Democrats' greatest threat in the current political environment, where McCain is virtually unchallenged.
McCain has a credible brand with the public, who see him as a maverick and a reformer. If McCain succeeds on his current path, he may be able to use his own popularity to infuse the Republicans with new life and a new narrative--the "Change Republican." The risk is amplified because there are 34 open House seats and 5 open Senate seats. Unlike incumbents, these Republican candidates--who aren't from Washington--could seize onto McCain's "Change Republican" brand and ride his coattails to a Republican comeback. Democrats could lose the House and Senate, and the White House would be out of reach.
It wouldn't be all "change." They'd combine this with the usual scare tactics and terror-mongering--tired old tactics that failed in 2006.
Lest my fellow Democratic partisans worry, I'm not giving away any secrets that the Republican strategists don't know. In the last few days, a strategy memo on this same topic has been circulated by Republican strategists.
There is a big Achilles heel to this strategy. On the issues that the public will judge McCain he is not change. McCain's tempered approaches on immigration and climate change are small bore stuff compared to the defining narratives on the war and the economy. On the issues central to voters, McCain is not change. The media pundits who think the public will view him as a maverick still don't understand this vulnerability.
In many ways the emergence of a Democratic majority rests on whether John McCain gets away with becoming a "Change Republican."
The answer is probably "no" but let this serve as notice to all of us: the ball is in our court.
Update:If you have any doubts about McCain and the GOP considering the "change" theme take a look at Carl Hulse's post on NYTimes.com. Sometimes being the first person to adopt a message isn't the winner--your opponent can hijack the dialog in the media and turn it to his advantage.
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I'd rather contemplate how McCain will be the final nail in the conservative coffin.
Actually, under Bush unemployment is still low, wages are up, interest rates are down. With interest rates down, and housing prices coming down, we are actually paying less for cars and homes, and not more under Bush.
On the war, the Korean war was faught over half a decade ago, and we're still in that country. WWII was fought before that, and we're still in Japan and Germany. The thought that we'll still be in Iraq in 100 years actually makes sense.
And 70% of this country thinks we're on the wrong track, regardless of all of the proof that its just the opposite, because you and every other liberal media wonk tells them so every day, all day. Try telling them the truth.
Oh, and one more thing, Korea was fought more than a half CENTURY ago, not a half DECADE. Further, since peace was never actually declared, technically a state of war exists both between North and South Korea AND between North Korea and the United Nations, of which the US is a major member!
"Actually, under Bush unemployment is still low, wages are up, interest rates are down. With interest rates down, and housing prices coming down, we are actually paying less for cars and homes, and not more under Bush."
Please look at the REAL numbers, not what bushco(tm) is telling you. Unemployment is UP over 10%, even though they are claiming lower by not counting everyone who wants a job but doesn't have one. Further UNDERemployment is rampant under this president. Wages are stagnant at best and have been dropping recently. Interest rates are down, but this is causing INFLATION (remember that??) and thus causing more problems. And no matter what you say about costs, everything ELSE that we are buying is costing MORE as well!
"On the war, the Korean war was faught over half a decade ago, and we're still in that country. WWII was fought before that, and we're still in Japan and Germany. The thought that we'll still be in Iraq in 100 years actually makes sense."
In Korea, Japan, and Germany, we stayed either because we had defeated them and then as the government (which we ALLOWED to be set up, not that we set up!) of the various nations ASKED us to stay there!
And it's not 70% who think we are on the wrong track It's actually 82%. Further, since the media isn't telling them ANYTHING, it's not the media's fault!
jimpryor99, korean conflict (actually name for it) was what? Was over s half decade ago, I think you said? Here you are, never been to any of those countries or you would know they can't stand the American military, there. And, unemployment is NOT down, people have just plain ran out of benefits and are then taken off the roll. And, as much as I'd LIKE TO AGREE WITH YOU ABOUT THE MEDIA -I CAN'T BECAUSE YOU PERVERTING THE TRUTH - WHEN YOU SAY THE "MEDIA" CORPORATE MEDIA IS LIBERAL.... NO WAY! You get your information from wack job so-called talk show wind bags that originally had poor paying positions at small radio stations (at best) and they couldn't even afford decent wigs but they wore them or dyed what they had and for a male to do that tells me they are very sick to start with. Got it? But, for a person to be so wrong, so out of focus with the REAL truth -on so many fronts, and narrow-minded is way more than pathetic! Remember, the mind is like a parachute; it only works when it's open!
Tell that to the people losing their homes because of the mortgage crisis. And the people watching their property values plummet as every other home on their block is foreclosed on. And the people paying more for everything from groceries to tube socks because of skyrocketing gas prices. And the families waiting for their sons and daughters to come home from Iraq. And the people working without health care coverage. I'm sorry, is reality crushing your neocon fantasy world?
HEHEHEHEHE! You have me truly giggling. I guess you have not bothered to note that job losses are spiraling out of control, the huge added budget deficit under total Republican control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate, our standing in the world is less than desirable to put it in its best light, and as for coalition building, Bush 1 was able to even mobalize the Arab world to assist us in handling Iraq. In the end, I think Bush 2 has been able to get about 12,000 troops form other countries. Some coalition, eh? This includes 2 troops from Iceland even. Unfortunately, most of the Countries got their troops out very quickly. The difference between Bush 1 and Bush 2 is that Bush 1 took time to build a real coalition. He even got Arab countries to help. He also had a clear-cut objective and when he achieved the objective, he got out of the Middle East. There are huge anti-Republican issues this election, skulduggery of the Republican Party these last two elections, signing statements, such poor management of the economy, and finally the gigantic debt this administration has added. . The idea that any Republican who sucks it up to Bush can win this election is absurd. Unfortunately, that is what has happened to McCain and even Arizona, Republicans are scratching their heads about McCain's being for stuff after he was against it. The Straight Talk Express has obviously been demolished by McCain himself.
Further proof that Republicans do a lotta drugs.
We stayed in Korea at the request of the Korean govt. We stayed in Germany and Japan until we were sure the conditions that led them to attack the allies no longer existed. Housing prices are coming down because people are losing their homes to banks. Interest rates are coming down because banks are trying to stir up business. And actually, it's 80% of the public that thinks we're on the wrong track.
They always were the more fun folks to party with. No conscience. Senator Blutarsky.
Think Animal House
You might have added that we stayed in Germany to protect Germany from the Warsaw Pact (until Containment and then Detente finally ended the Warsaw Pact). We have a forward deployed Carrier and Naval Air Facility in Japan. Whiole the official occupation extended until 1955, military governors were replaced with Civilian representatives in 1949 when the Federal Republic of Germany was established in the three western held Zones. The oocupation of Japan also effectively ended late in 1949 (officially on April 28, 1952) though we have relatively small facilties and 47,000 personnel in Japan under a Treaty of Mutual Cooperation.
In case you hadn't noticed, when WWII and the Korean Police Action were over, the killing stopped.
There's no way the Iraqi War can be compared to either conflict. The people who are killing our GIs now will continue to do so as long as we are in that country. Even if it's for a hundred years.
Is that what we want? Ten decades of our young Americans being slaughtered?
And I don't doubt that housing prices are coming down. With a millions of owners defaulting on their loans, the banks will make you a deal on a foreclosed home.
It's a great time to buy a house, if you're lucky enough to still have a job.
And, very shortly, you can name your own price on Hummers and other gas guzzlers.
Saying the country needs more of George Bush and his gang is like saying Custer needed more Indians.
We are still in Germany and Japan because Americans realized, if a little late, that the Axis presented a very real threat to our national security. Nearly everyone except John McCain and George Bush now realizes that Iraq did not present such a threat and that the invasion made us less, not more, secure.
The fact is, your spin aside, Americans realize that everything costs more. Everything that is except the homes that they have invested their savings into which are now worth much less. Everything cost more because the unnecessary war in Iraq and Bush-Cheney's coddling of their oil company buddies have led to a more than doubling of the price of oil. This, in turn, increases the price of everything else while the average Joe and Jane's wages remain static. But of course, Bush and his buddies are doing fine with their tax cuts that do not benefit most of us and their investment income that most of us don't have either. That is why 70% of Americans think the Bush-McCain program is wrong for America.
McCain...McSame...McShame...They're all the same guy who will continue to keep this country buried. Tax relief? Only if you are wealthy. Endless war...definitely! Support the troops? Only if you consider funding an illegal war as such. The "Staight Talk Express" has been ravaged by the fanatical right and is driven by corporate greed. McSame is so hell-bent on becoming President that he has relinquished any morality he had to attain this goal. How can he stand in front of a town hall and repeatedly say "My Friends"? He's no friend to the American people. His friends are in the Oval Office & on the lunatic fringe. If this idiot somehow manages to win this election, he & his friends can stand together & sing a chorus of Bomb, Bomb Iran... Why won't the msm step up to the plate? Are they not patriots? Thank God for sites like the HP who are attempting to combat this plague. CTmon13 is correct...he is" an angry old war monger ". His is the "Sith" of this country. And if you are knowledgable about "Star Wars" at all, the "Sith" was Darth Vader's boss!!!
If you do your research, you'll find that the maverick isn't really a fitting moniker - sheep, follower, etc. are all suitable. Since her has completely she'd any sense of his soul and his maverick-ness for the gop nomination - he's just a politician now. He's in tight and does favors for lobbyists. He's not a very bright man with a bad temper. My dog knows more about domestic issues and the economy than McCain does. His foreign policy "expertise" is questionable as the man cannot even keep sunnis and shites straight without corrections from his caretaker. McCain is Bush III - don't be fooled by the Maverick hooey - that shoe just doesn't fit anymore.
Matzzie, you need to read and get the word out about the two current biographies that dispel the media-driven myth that McCain is a maverick . They give further evidence that his character is bankrupt of ethics. Our beloved country definitely does not need another of his ilk. Please don't use your power to keep the myth alive!!!
John MCain panders to the idiot Christian conservatives who demand that Israel not withdraw from the West Bank or even the Golan Heights! The American media generally avoid this disgraceful behavior on the part of the so-called self-described "straight talker" who would never dream of telling the American public that Israel cannot suppress the Palestinians for another generation, and expect protection from the colossal war machine McCain wants to keep in Iraq for 100 years.
This article just goes to show that the 'pundits' are:
1) Running out of things to talk about.
2) Trotting out the most ridiculous narratives.
3) Grasping at straws when it comes to reality.
Talking heads... lots of words, no substance.
John McCain the candidate of change? Let's see. I believed in him as the candidate of change when I volunteered for him in 2000. That's because he believed in things I believed in...or at least I thought he did. I should add that I am a lifelong Republican and a Vietnam vet.
He said he opposed tax cuts for the uberwealthy. Now he supports them. He said he supported immigration reform. Now he opposes it. He said he was a friend of the environment. But he voted for drilling in ANWR, against requiring utilities to use renewable energy sources, against raising CAFE standards, and against applying the Endangered Species Act to pet Arizona projects. He has changed his position on torture. He has voted for a bill that guts the original one expanding veterans' benefits. He once disdained "swiftboat" type attacks. Now he labels Obama the Hamas candidate even though Obama has exactly the same position on Hamas that he does. This, of course, encourages all the racist right wingers who have already labeled Obama an "Islamofacist" to use a favorite term of Fox News. He once said he voted against George Bush. Now he embraces him.
John McCain is the candidate of change all right. It's just not change that I can believe in. Obama '08!!!
What's with this calling Johnny MaC a "maverick?"
A Maverick is a crappy car Ford stopped making in the seventies because nobody wanted it.
Wasn't that the "Valient?" :-)
No. The "Valiant" was a crappy car Plymouth stopped making because nobody wanted it. :-(
Forgive me for going off subject for a sec, but - I can still see my brother, in his Valiant - at the the quarter mile flag, slam it in reverse and drop the transmission right on the line.
Good golly that was funny!
A credible brand? A maverick?
The environmental president? - McCain is ranked 535 (that is last) of 535 on his voting record for environmental protection. Torture: the guy was tortured and must know that torture gets info WANTED by the torturers, yet McCain won't vote to ban waterboarding (like it or not it IS torture). The GI bill on the floor right now: McCain won't vote for it - HIS GI bill is a piece of crap for today's vet.
Campaign finance, don't get me started. Illegal occupations? We know McCain's answer.
McCain is no Maverick.
McCain is a crazy person.
sleepless,
McCain's "wooing of Democrats on environment" - ( WSJ) quoted Carl Pope (Sierra Club) claiming the group might not endorse any candidate for president.
This comment by Pope once again proves how stupid groups like SC, TNC et al KNOW we are!
What a mahsh! All those enviro groups will unanimously endorse one of the democrat candidates.
And, being an Arizonian, McCain"s allegiance to Bruce Babbitt - and his attempts to "talk the enviro talk," transcends patronizing.
Bruce Babbitt, Tony Blair, Bill Clinton, Ted Turner, Richard Branson et al, are all breathlessly piggy backing on Al Gore"s fabricated a scam of global proportions called "global warming," to control you, your land and your water, and make even more billions bilking us in the process. Good God we"re dumb!
This is fact.
All three highly visible candidates for president are against resource production in America.
None walk with sound science, none are good stewards of our lands and water, and all three are selling us out. They"re mandating us to destroy our Republic so they can replace it with socialism.
This is fact.
None are Maverick's.
Are are not only crazy, but they're cruel in mega portions.
What drivel!!
America needs a moderate. If McCain is the closest thing in Nov. he's going to win.
Eight years of extremist is enough. Obama's too liberal and green. Clinton's going to, more than likely, gracefully bow out. Which is a shame; she's the most likely winner when the moderates from both camps voice their opinion. It's already been said in OH/TX/IN, yet nobody the liberal left isn't listening.
Obama's only chance is to attract the moderate vote. They're the segment that's going to decide this election. To his credit there is a lot of anti-republican sentiment which has bought him time. But it won't last forever.
Where the moderates go, so goes the election.
Unfortunately passive racism from the Obama camp will only further disgust the moderates.
Yes, race is the gay marriage of 2008. The problem with the liberals is that they haven't realized that the moderates on both sides have learned from the mistakes of 2004. The sad truth is that the neo-conservative right and liberal left look an awful lot alike with their shrill nonsensical vitriol. Obama's passive use of race to explain his upcoming defeats in KY and WV are disgusting displays of Rovian politics. Politics not played against another candidate, but against the general population. It will backfire on him if he continues, though it may be too late already.
America doesn't need or want another extremist. It's time for a moderate voice to be heard.
To call McCain a moderate simply proves that you have either been brainwashed to the point that you don't know what a moderate is, or that you are not intelligent enough to realize what a moderate is. The ENTIRE political debate in this country has moved so far to the right that in this day and age Eisenhower would be considered a bleeding heart! NIXON would be considered centrist nowadays. McCain is about as extreme a right wing candidate as I've ever seen in my life (by the standard definition, NOT the current definition!) and Obama is one of the more centrist. I would actually rather have had someone who was MORE to the left, like Kucinich, but people like you think that he's a nutjob!
Look at their economic policies and then tell me who's more moderate?
Personally, I like Kucinich. He is brilliant.
I don't know what happened, it lost my reply to you. Let's see, McCain wishes for us to spend all of our money on war and tax rebates for the rich. Clinton and Obama want us to spend our money on US! hmmmm.... Considering how America is leaning right now.... I'm gonna say that Hillary is slightly right of what used to be center, and that Obama is almost EXACTLY on the center....
What's that I hear? Oh yes, the sound of crickets..
What I thought...
"To call McCain a moderate simply proves that you have either been brainwashed"
McCain is on a friggin global warming tour right now with Joe Liberman.
Yeah, and BOTH of them have proven their global warming credentials....... right?
They will not be saved. I and many like me have made it our mission to destroy the GOP. Enough is enough. Fascism DESERVES to be destroyed.
Where do I sign up?
The chance of McCain winning in November may keep some of the faithful onside, but reality says it will be a bloodbath.( and that is without all those stumbles and senior moments yet to come)
It's going to be a blooddbath alright. McCain is going to win in a 40 state landslide.
So, is that going to be the same "win" that we are almost at in Iraq? Or the one that we were almost at right before we pulled out of Vietnam? No, wait, I know, it's the win we were almost at in KOREA before the cease fire!!
Posted May 12, 2008 | 12:55 PM (EST)