A Turning Point

Fritjof Capra is a physicist who plowed the systems thinking ground for Peter Senge and the new science ground for Meg Wheatly. He opened his seminal piece "The Turning Point" by noting that man always assumes he is at a turning point. As a pattern spotter, I'm particularly susceptible to seeing turning points, but from the standpoint of global learning potential this decade really does appear to be pivotal in human history.

With Wikipedia, the last decade was the beginning of almost anyone can learn anything anywhere (Bonk, The World is Open). In this decade, the world will put the power of anywhere anytime learning to use through new and revitalized institutions and by empowering individual learners.

While economic concerns abound, I'm bullish on the global economy (particularly the back half of this decade) in large part because the appetite for and access to learning is changing the world. Here's the macro equation:

1. Global communications: mobile phones have connected the planet (e.g., there are more than 650 million cell phones in India alone) and broadband penetration is increasing worldwide.
2. Global networks are opening markets, easing transactions, and spreading the flow of
   information.
3. Democracy and free markets are slowly taking hold worldwide driven, in large part, by
   mobile and social technology.
4. The appetite for and access to learning increases every year.
5. The idea economy is rewarding learning and innovation and is creating a global middle
   class.

While cultural norms and family supports will vary, it will soon be possible to extend quality educational options to every young person on the planet. Free content, cheap devices, and low cost blended schools will extend secondary education to hundreds of million of students in developing economies.

This virtual cycle of learning and increased levels of prosperity will also bring about increased consumption -- a profound problem we will all need to confront. Where policies block job creation, unrest will follow (i.e., more Egypts) but the macro trend of higher levels of literacy and more young people gaining access to post secondary learning and idea economy careers will be an enormous contribution to peace and prosperity.

If we drill down, it appears that 2012 will be the year where five mostly disconnected streams of tech-rich K-12 learning are finally connecting:

1. Digital learning: the 20-year push for 1:1 computing that took hold in Australia in the
   early '90s and is now most frequently represented as the Maine and Mooresville models.
   The goal of this #edtech focused approach -- advanced by groups like SETDA, COSN, and
   the Anytime, Anywhere Learning Foundation -- is richness of experience, student as
   producer, and 21st century skills but with limited focus on productivity or options.
2. Online learning: now common in higher education, #OnlineLearning in K-12 is growing
   by nearly 50% annually as states reduce barriers to access. Championed by iNACOL
   (where I'm a director), the focus has been on options and flexibility. Last year, the focus
   shifted to the rise of blended learning.
3. Mobile learning: the explosion of tablets and #mlearning apps over the last 24 months
   the most dynamic space in education. It looks like many U.S. students will soon have a
   three screen day where they bring smartphones to school, use tabs or laptops, and
   occasionally work on a big screen or interactive whiteboard.
4. Social learning: digital natives are now teaching digital natives and they've quietly
   adopted social learning tools like Edmodo, a Facebook-like platform for schools with over
   five million users. The #SocialLearning ability for teachers and students to create
   dynamic learning groups is helping to make the idea of grouping students by birthday
   seem rather quaint.
5. Informal learning: A little bit of encouragement from the Hewlett foundation starting ten
   years ago led to what is now a flood of free and open content. While Khan Academy gets
   all the attention, there are hundreds of startups that offer peer-to-peer learning, tutorial
   support, learning games, test prep, and job training.

Districts and networks are beginning to mix and match innovations from these strands in new blended models that extend the day, personalize learning, and combine the best of online and onsite learning.

In the U.S., this confluence is being driven by the adoption of the Common Core State Standards and the planned shift to online testing in most states in 2014.

Worldwide, schools are benefiting from cheaper access devices -- it just doesn't make sense to buy a backpack full of books for kids anymore.

Behind the scenes, the improvement in application development platforms in the last 36 months has made it much easier and cheaper to develop great web and mobile apps. It's now possible to build an app and gain some global traction in a fraction of the time and cost of a few years ago.

This confluence of forces is creating another virtuous cycle -- new talent and investment. For many talented young entrepreneurs, the potential to power the shift to personal digital learning -- to build an organization and make a difference -- is very attractive.

Your history teacher probably told you the printing press was a turning point in human history. Just watch what the shift to digital learning will do. Better yet, create your way to lead the shift.

 

Follow Tom Vander Ark on Twitter: www.twitter.com/tvanderark

Comments

[tvpatrick]

01:15 PM on 02/23/2012

Another potential use for blended learning: Home-based middle schools.

I homeschooled my three kids through 9th grade. All transitioned successfully to public high school. The oldest is a cadet at West Point. The next oldest turned down an opportunity to attend West Point saying that he wants to "prevent wars rather than fight them." He plans to become a research scientist, studying food security issues.

I made use of a wide variety of resources as a homeschool parent, from online programs to private co-ops to public-school-based programs.

Now I am thinking about opening a private, home-based middle school. Even the best middle schools struggle to meet the social, emotional and educational needs of students at this age. A well-designed home-based program could help kids negotiate those critical, transition years with their intellectual curiosity, motivation and social confidence intact. If I pursue this plan, I would start by opening my own school for six to ten middle school students, prove the concept and then promote it as a replicable model.

Home-based middle schools could offer an alternative for students who are at risk of becoming underachievers. I am pro-public schools. However, when I saw signs that my oldest (then-fourth-grade) son was on a path to becoming a bored, disengaged "underachiever", I was prepared to do whatever it took prevent that outcome. I'd like to give other parents the opportunity to make that choice.

[maninal2]

01:10 AM on 02/22/2012

"Just watch what the shift to digital learning will do. "

We've seen the decline in critical thinking, attention span, as well as the increases in ADD / ADHD brought by the explosion of technology.

[changing]

07:17 PM on 02/21/2012

Another commercial? Haven't seen one in a while.

[Darren Beck]

03:34 PM on 02/21/2012

Great stuff as usual. Even if you cannot handle all this 'crazy' virtual and blended talk and all you can do is muster up the courage to contemplate the wide openness of educational opportunities in the world that exist at this moment, that is at least a start. According to EdTECH Insight, roughly 90% of all school districts use some form of virtual course offerings for students needing credit repair. Roughly 80% now have more than remedial offerings. We also saw a significant jump between 2010 where 48% offered online AP courses to 64% in 2011 doing so. If these small demonstrations of what is happening out there do not amount to a serious turning point, not sure what does. Now, to make damn sure they are of the quality needed to ensure successful futures for all students.