Pre-Election Post-Mortem: Why Obama Lost

For months I've assumed that whichever Democrat won the nomination would defeat him/herself in the general election the usual way -- not attacking hard enough, not responding to attacks, nuanced responses to difficult questions, etc. Well, this time we didn't lose it. John McCain won it by running a campaign so brilliant that it seemed to surprise even his most enthusiastic backers.

McCain came into the general election season facing what seemed to be pretty tough odds. He was an old, out-of-touch Washington insider decidedly lacking in charisma, running against not only a young and exciting Democratic candidate in Barack Obama, but also against the record of George W. Bush, the most unpopular president in modern history, with whom McCain had voted 90% of the time in the Senate.

McCain made his share of mistakes -- displaying ignorance of exactly who we're fighting in the Middle East, forgetting how many houses he owns, mocking the definition of "middle class" -- but he made up for it with a relentless attacks on Barack Obama, winning news cycle after news cycle and never letting the Democrats off their heels. Even the Dems' most effective attacks were, in retrospect, nothing more than counterpunches.

After the Democratic convention in August, Obama and Joe Biden seemed to have the wind at their backs and McCain appeared to be foundering. His choice of the unknown, relatively inexperienced governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin, as his vice president was immediately and harshly criticized. A good chunk of Hillary Clinton voters were offended by the decision, as if McCain believed they'd vote for any woman, even one whose political views were diametrically opposed to Hillary's. The press went after her with gusto, exposing the contradictions and outright lies in her carefully stage-managed speeches. McCain seemed to have bungled, and bungled badly.

But John McCain understood one thing that Democrats, in their desire for systemic change, and even many Republicans did not. Just because the vast majority of Americans hate George Bush doesn't mean they hate what he stands for. When the Democrats chose Senator Obama as their nominee, they overshot the limits of how much change the American people were willing to accept.

American voters were ready to elect the country's first black president; they were ready to switch parties; they were ready to elect a relative newcomer to Washington; and they were ready to elect the first president born in the '60s. But they weren't ready to do all those things at once.

Palin represented change in that she was young, female and a Washington outsider, while as a self-proclaimed "hockey mom" she still embodied the conservative views that have guided the electorate to greater or lesser extents for the past 40 years. The McCain-Palin ticket even managed to define itself as the ticket of change by promising to reform Washington, while also implying that it would maintain the same set of values held by the Bush administration.

The excitement generated by Sarah Palin among the GOP's base, and the Democrats' inability to effectively neutralize her, gave the Republican ticket an unbeatable advantage. By dusting off McCain's reputation as a "maverick," they were able to position themselves simultaneously as both outsiders and insiders, newcomers and old hands. It didn't matter that the Obama-Biden could claim the same thing -- McCain and Palin got there first, and never stopped hammering home their message of "change and experience" versus "inexperienced and Washington insider."

When the mainstream media started its own vetting process of Governor Palin (something McCain seems to have done inadequately, if at all), the McCain camp resorted to a tried-and-true Republican tactic. It accused the press of a liberal bias and of "going too far" in its pursuit of details about Palin's political past as well as her private life and religious beliefs. It didn't matter that the same treatment had been dished out to Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, or that both candidates had endured such hazing for far longer than Palin, or that much less was known about Palin than about any other Republican or Democratic candidate in history who had run for national office. The charges stuck, and the attacks mobilized both the Republican base and conservative swing voters, effectively neutering any negative press about Palin for the duration of the campaign.

McCain's controversial choice of Sarah Palin gave voters who were disillusioned with Republican rule but unsure about Obama a reason to "come home" and give the Republicans another chance, while still feeling they were voting for "change." It served to underscore the tactical brilliance of a man who was underestimated by both his own party and the Democrats.

The Democratic party, having lost a seemingly unloseable election, must feel the way Republicans felt in 1948 after Thomas Dewey lost what also appeared to be a sure thing right up until Election Day. Frustrated Dems can take heart in the fact that four years later, the Republicans swept Dwight Eisenhower into the White House and a Republican majority into Congress. Clinton vs. Palin in 2012, anyone?

Comments

[DarthVector]

***crickets***

[Lautenberg]

Being a skeptic is the easy way out for someone with no guts and no ideas.

[bootcamp]

McCain-Palin have nowhere to go now but down, and I will tell you exactly how this will happen. They can run away from President Bush, but they can't run away from the Republican Party. The Republicans will be regarded from now on as "the party that wrecked America." Over the weeks ahead, as carnage in the economy and the financial markets ramps up, it will become increasingly clear. It is important that this meme be spread through the internet. I urge all commentators to adopt and spread the idea that the Republicans are "the party that wrecked America." It will work because it is the truth. Just spread the word. Get the meme going.

[Lautenberg]

Your wrong. It doesn't make you seem smart to make defeatist predictions when it is time to fight. The hottest parts of hell are reserved for those who sit on the fence in a time of great moral conflict.

Just like a wimp to admit defeat before he even put up a decent fight.

Are you going to use the word Agoraphobia in a sentence next Tony or maybe you'll use that soapbox to tell us why we should give a damn and vote anyway.

[wbl1946]

You are probably right but don't count on this old Democrat to come home and vote for Hillary in 2012. She and her husband are probably popping the campaign corks. I think I'd rather Ralph Nadar in 2012 and heck with you and everyone!!!!

[benne]

To blame Hillary and Bill because Obama has run a terrible campaign, more in tune with machismo than political expediency, is ridiculous. Put the blame on the shoulder of the person who deserves it.

[Lautenberg]

Don't you mean Hilary and Bill ran a terrible campaign, oBama didn't blow a lead and lose to a relative unknown. He is winning in eletoral votes right now as we speak.

[RP830]

Barack says: Chill Out, I got this....Please review the following link:
http://www.bobcesca.com/blog-archives/2008/09/awesome_hall_of.html

[f4skyhawk]

WSe only lose if we tolerate defeatist arttitudes this column represents. Mccain does not have to lift a finger if we begin panicking and running around wringing our hands. Mr. Sachs have you ever been in a street fight before? You dont give in you bloody the other guy . I doubt it because you sound like the one whp gives up his lunch money to a bully. IT IS NOT OVER AND ANYTHING CAN AND WILL HAPPEN!!!

[ReaderTeacherCitizen]

Obama's not going to lose. Sarah Palin is a veritable never-ending source of scandal. See the new story posted on the National Enquirer site. See the Newsweek story about her sister's divorce judge reprimanding her and her family for "emotional child abuse." See the letter to the Alaskan state police colonel attacking her brother-in-law, a naked abuse of power in print, with her signature. See the way the mainstream news media is developing enough spine to call her out on her lies. If she makes it past the next two weeks, which I doubt, see Joe Biden expose her for the shallow, talking-points spouter that she is in the vice presidential debate.

The post-convention bump is already leveled out in the polls. Palin has energized the same 30%, the same dead-enders who still love Bush, the same racists that would never vote for Obama. But the sleaze will not wear well over the next 54 days with independent voters and enlightened evangelicals, who can overlook a teenage pregnancy but not the stuff that will drip, drip, drip, drip out in the National Enquirer over the next four or five weeks. She will be lucky if she has a career left.

And I think that maybe some very smart conservatives are not willing to sign the country over to a guy who would pick this totally unprepared woman to be a heartbeat away from the nuclear codes.

[capovarian]

Sarah Palin aka Wisteria Wormwood

[ilrslr3]

By supporting McSame/Pointless you are handing Sarah the election in 2012: Trust me when I say this Sarah will be the incumbent VP she will have more experience than Hillary, she will have Karl Rove wannabe's preparing her for the 2012 election. Hillary need to be the first in office so when I see so-call PUMAS writing told you so's, that let's me know that they are not true Hillblazers, but true RETHUGS.

Hillary Clinton will be the first woman in the White House! And REAL true Hillary supporters will do everything in their powers to make it happen. So please RETHUGS stop pretending to be PUMAS!
Obama/Biden 08-12
Obama/Clinton 12-16
Clinton/???16-24

[Lautenberg]

NO. Michelle Obama will divorce Barack before he lets someone who brought up Bobby's death to win an election. SHe gave him an ultimatum because she fears for her husbands life with the billions behind Hilary.

Joe Biden is something Hilary will never be HONEST.

Obama 08-16
Biden 16-20
Sebelius 21-25

[JayInDallas]

If this is an effort at reverse psychology, it's brilliant. Giving voice to that which every Dem fears most so it can be set aside and progress can be renewed. BRILLIANT. Let your voice be the last we hear on how such a tremendous, historical and important effort ended in failure.

[Lautenberg]

Being a keptic isn't brillian. it is the easy way out for someone with no guts and no ideas.

[research]

perhaps you believe the land line secret methodology polls the war profiteering controlled MSM buys. Even Zogby admits these polls are BS.

We are actually living the the media world of 1984, with just little fleeting patches of non-GOP propaganda leaking out.

Fortunately the GOP is so desperate and over the top, most voters are starting to question the MSM bubble of deception.

[joesnuffy]

The McCain campaign as of late has been brilliant in the sense that it has been able to manipulate voters. If, regardless of the methods, that is the measure of brilliance, then I agree. If fooling and deceiving people is the goal, they have done an excellent job. But, if you are measuring against a higher yard-stick - that of absolute morality, ethics, and the forward progress of this country and its political processes - then it is a complete failure. The McCain compaign, like Bush's in 2000 and 2004, embodies everything in a nutshell that is wrong with this country. What we really need is an honest, thoughtful, positive, selfless president who genuinely wants to move this country in the right direction. But, these personality traits can't coexist with the immoral, unethical characteristics that seem to be more effective at manipulating voters and winning elections. Until the people wake up and stop falling for all the BS, we are doomed to electing dishonest, backward-thinking, self-serving, corrupt leaders.

[SShaw490]

You sure used a lot of words to write baloney.

[walkthewalk]

Knock it off. People need to understand the difference between running a campaign to win an election and governing. They require very different skills.

Go ahead and choose Republicans as your winners to run brilliantly entertaining, psycho/deceptive campaigns. But please vote for the Democrats to govern. If you vote against your interests once again, you are on your own. Good luck.