The October Surprise Shouldn't Come as One

Obama supporters have every reason to be feeling sanguine about the upcoming election. Intrade Market Odds has Obama as the 2:1 favorite. Realclearpolitics has his Electoral College count, if the election were held today, at 304, compared to McCain's 234.

However consider this:

We taxpayers already have shelled out $100 billion on contractors in Iraq since 2003. They have 180,000 employees in country now building what they had assumed would be permanent bases for a permanent occupation of an oil-rich land.

Does anyone really believe that Cheney/Halliburton/Blackwater will relinquish the keys to the American treasury without the nastiest of fights?

For six years Cheney has unleashed a gusher of obscene profiteering with little or no oversight of his petro/reconstruction/military contracting cohorts. You don't have to be a conspiracy-addicted fan of Jack Bauer's to understand that they won't just quietly retire to their yachts in the Gulf of Mexico after regime change and their operations in Iraq are forcibly ended. They understand that not only will they be out of business, but that they could also go to jail -- if Democrats hold hearings into war profiteering, just as Truman did as a Senator in 1943.

Remember, when Halliburton et al. first entered Iraq, Republicans had a virtual one-party lock on governance. Democrats acted like frightened little forest animals. The contractors didn't have to cover their tracks because the vice president of the United States, the de facto ruler of the free world, was their capo.

We would all actually be safer if McCain had a better chance of winning. If the odds were more even, then Cheney's people might not feel compelled to risk everything on a fourth quarter Hail Mary pass that will so destabilize the world and petrify undecided voters that they will experience a last-minute conversion to McCain.

What will it be? A nod to Israel to bomb Iran? An American-engineered coup in Pakistan? Whatever it is it is coming and if Obama intends to weather the dirty trick he will have to be prepared.

If the rumors are right and he is picking a VP with a military background that will be a great start. With Jim Webb having withdrawn that leaves Chuck Hagel as the only veteran on the shortlist. He's a very interesting choice and a great McCain neutralizer. Add to that Colin Powell's endorsement sometime after both conventions and Obama should have enough defensive armor to neutralize the dirtiest of the dirty tricks coming down the pike.

** Update **

A lot of you have written in to sing General Clark's praises. I too am a big fan and the last time around, before I'd even laid eyes on him, he and Kerry were my top choices. However we haven't elected a non-elected official to such a high office since Eisenhower. I just think President Obama is already such an outrageous concept that having a non-traditional VP would scare away as many people as it brought in. What Hagel does, is prove that Obama is serious about a new, non-partisan style of governing. Who cares if the VP is more conservative than the P. Obama will be driving the agenda and if he can find common ground with Hagel he can find it with the Republicans left in Congress after we clean their clocks in November.

Comments

[research]

Impeachment is the only possible remedy to BushCo and McCain starting another world war to win or cancel the election.

[BobsNotWorking]

My fear is that the dark forces you describe will go WAY beyond some engineered military event somewhere else in the world. The forces arrayed behind Cheney are as dark as it gets, and billions if not trillions of dollars are at stake. They will stop at nothing to stop Obama.

[kkurman]

Does anyone really doubt that Barack is going to stack his administration with the BEST people for the job, unlike what we've seen recently, business buddies and sycophants?
..and what matter my perspective? for what its worth;
I like Hagel for a cabinet post (it would free up his seat for a Dem.), Biden is a clear thinking 'go to guy', even if he is another Senator, and my fav for VP, Gen. Clark for National Security Adviser, Richardson for Sect of State! Sen Clinton for Sect of Health and Human Services (can she do that AND remain in the Senate?)
Imagine having an Attorney General who understands the rule of law? Its been so long we've forgotten how important it is to have an independent constitutionalist in that office.
Did anyone take note of the polarity of responses on the question of Supreme Court nominations at that abominable 'Faith Forum'? The MSM seems to have missed that one, I think with Barack we can look forward to nominees more interested in Justice than 'moral &/or political' agendas.
I could go on but, really I trust Barack with all his appointments. Another point skipped over by the MSM and the punditorcracy is that there has been practically no turnover in the Obama campaign whereas the McCain camp has more turn-overs than, well, you can fill in the blank... That should speak for Barack's skill as an administrator, and McCain's lack of judgment, as anything could.

[condawg]

Trey,
I think that the convention will leave 0bama and Clinton feeling sanguinary not sanguine.

Methinks it's really an August surprise that is looming in Denver.

[maribelle1963]

My last post on this hasn't been posted (yet?)

Basically, the idea of voting in a Republican VP (Hagel) because we're that afraid of the Repubs is ridiculous. It's like inviting the most reasonable fox into the hen house. Hagel is a REPUBLICAN--his anti-Iraq war stance doesn't qualify him to be the Dem VP. For god's sake, at least pick someone from our own party.

Isn't that the "Frightened forest animals" behavior the author is decrying?

If people can't figure out that Obama is serious about working for the good of all the country without picking a Repub, we are in deep doo doo.

What a bunch of wimps. Come on, Dems, let's get it together and take back the freaking country already!

OBAMA/BIDEN '08

[maribelle1963]

So Obama should pick a Republican VP to counter the big bad Republicans? In a year where the Repubs have *ruined* the country? Are we running that scared?

This is the kind of f--'d up thinking that leads the Dems to continually shoot themselves in the foot time and time again.

IF I WANTED TO VOTE FOR A REPUB I WOULD VOTE FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!

Jesus, at least pick someone from our party already.

OBAMA/BIDEN '08

[paolom]

I think that choosing a more conservative VP can backfire just like Lieberman sold out Gore in 2000!
P

[eXcommunicate]

Wesley Clark, Joe Biden, or Hillary Clinton. NO OTHER VPs SHOULD BE CONSIDERED. Not milquetoast Bayh and not Chuck Hagel.

[PATina]

Well.. not to be the voice of gloom and doom... however, having Hagel as a VP ups the odds considerably on an assassination attempt on a "President" O bama as I see it.... so not a good choice.

Other than that... I agree w/ your article. Anyone "surprised" hasn't been paying attention. We've been "warned" by a few Republicans that any military or terrorist action would be a tremendous advantage to Mc Cain... the polls show that a large majority of Americans believe that Mc Cain would be a better Commander in Chief and better against terrorism (although their logic fails me). I don't expect the Republicans (especially those who are raking in massive profits)... to NOT take advantage of that.

Oh... and the Democrats are still acting like frightened little forest animals.

[tds1273]

Yup, Hagel = Republican trojan horse threat.

[davidly]

""They understand that not only will they be out of business, but that they could also go to jail -- if Democrats hold hearings into war profiteering, just as Truman did as a Senator in 1943.""

Well, granddaddy Prescott didn't do any time back then. Besides, there's no indication that the Dems are even remotely interested in war crimes and profiteering; heck, with their "nominee's" help they're using our money to pay for it.

[fiberoptimist]

Hagel would be a huge mistake IMHO. There are plenty of loyal Democrats with solid foreign policy chops - like Biden. Pick someone who we would be proud to run in 2016.

[spiffarino]

Absolutely agree. Hagel is a decent Republican, but he's a Republican. The last time a VP was selected from a different party...he actually wasn't. John Tyler was a Democrat-turned-Whig. As soon as W.H. Harrison died and Tyler was sworn in, he set about undoing the Whig agenda, alienating his Cabinet and rendering his presidency useless. It may have led to the demise of the Whig party as well.

Crossing parties for a Veep is a lousy, terrible, awful, crummy, horrible idea. Nothing good can come of it.

[ShamusNYC]

Biden will be too old in 2016... But I still like the guy. He's grown on me over the years...

[billw8017]

Chuck Hagel has been an odd sort of Republican.

An interesting factoid about Hagel is that his company furnished his state's electronic voling machines, and he won the general election despite the polls. Frankly, he seems to have been a sincere public servant and not bound to lobbyists. Never the less, he is a Republican and making him the Democratic VP choice is sort of outrageous.

I am partial to Wesley Clark. Hillary Clinton would be a bold choice and say a lot about Obama's self confidence. She would always be an outsider in an Obama administration, but it is her opportunity to be another Eleanor Roosevelt. I really think, he should choose a states governor as somebody who has actually run a government and balanced a budget.

[MS]

No conservative VP, please!!

As mentioned, the 'powers that be' already oppose Obama. If, heaven forbid, there should be an attempt on Obama's life, do we really want Hegel in the driver's seat?

Not me!

I want someone trustworthy and at least relatively progressive as VP.

[Swedishgal]

You echoed my thoughts exactly.

[juancole]

I think the neocon running Georgia is trying to give us a October surprise... in August.

Seriously.

But the tide is turning: Sky News admitted that many people living in Georgia consider Saakashvili a "tyrannical dictator".. and why shouldn't they? He did just kill untold numbers of civilians and start a war with Russia.

Sounds like a dictator to me.

[RTIII]

It occurred to me that our ONLY way out of the "surprise" _might_ be - depending on the surprise! - Nancy finally impeaching...
.

[macracan]

This is so far out of believable that it would truly be a surprise. No, a miracle! and I don't believe in miracles...