Anyone with even the vaguest interest in the US election will know that most people outside the US wish they could vote on November 4 - and that they would vote for Democrat Senator Barack Obama.
However, any opinion poll watcher would know that American voters are almost evenly divided between Senator Obama and Republican Senator John McCain. This is despite the almost universal unpopularity of the Bush Administration, a staggering economy, a plunging dollar, and the apparently endless, bloody grind of Iraq and Afghanistan.
In a conventional US election - and this one is anything but - the polls would be indicating a landslide for the Democrats.
So, why are they not?
Well, let's backtrack a bit to the global view. This week, the BBC World Service released a major survey on the US election, with some fascinating results.
22,500 people were polled in 22 countries. Senator Obama was favoured by a four-to-one margin across the globe.
On average, 46% thought US relations with the world would improve with Mr Obama in the White House. Only 20% thought ties would get better if Mr McCain were in the Oval Office.
The countries most optimistic that an Obama presidency would improve ties were US NATO allies:
Canada (69%)
Italy (64%)
France (62%)
Germany (61%)
UK (54%)
as well as Australia (equal third place on 62%), Senator Obama's father's homeland, Kenya (87%) and Nigeria (71%).
When asked whether the election as president of the African-American Senator Obama would "fundamentally change" their perception of the US, 46% said it would, while 27% said it would not.
Now, this poll was conducted before the parties held their conventions, and before the virtually unknown Sarah Palin grabbed headlines as Senator McCain's running mate.
BBC World says "the results could therefore be a reflection of the greater media focus on Mr Obama as he competed for the presidential candidacy against Hillary Clinton."
Be that as it may, the survey points to a major disconnect between what the world wants, and what American voters want.
Why?
Professor Geoffrey Garrett, the founding CEO of the US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, is pretty sure he knows.
A long time and widely-published expert on American politics and foreign policy, Professor Garrett Saturday gave a public lecture on the subject in the Senate Theatre of Parliament House in Australia's national capital, Canberra.
In the full theatre, Professor Garret told his audience there were two key issues.
The first is simple. "The world wants to turn the page on the Bush era, by electing Barack Obama. [For the world] Obama embodies change, McCain doesn't."
The second point is a little more complex.
"The US is a profoundly different country than it was in 2000," Prof Garrett said. "In 2008, the US is inward-looking, anxious, nervous, and - from Wall St to Main St - in an economic panic over the sub-prime mortgage crisis."
That panic would have been fueled even further by the weekend decision of one of the US's biggest investment bankers, Lehman Brothers, to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
Prof Garrett made the point, "This election is not a referendum on the unpopular Bush Administration. It should be, based on the state of the country, but Americans are so anxious right now, they haven't been able to convince themselves to take the risk in putting a young, inexperienced black man in the White House."
So it's about race, after all?
"It would be naive to suggest that race is not a factor," mused Prof Garrett, "but it's my feeling the reason Barack Obama is not way ahead in the polls is because voters don't feel they know who he is."
They do know John McCain, long-time senator, war hero, tortured by the Vietnamese, struggled with cancer. This is his narrative, and Americans are familiar with it. But, what about Barack Obama?
"Obama can't do the 'this is who I am' thing the way McCain can," said Prof Garrett. "They might not like McCain, but they know who he is. They might be inspired by Barack Obama, but who is he?"
According to Prof Garrett, therein lies the disconnect between the world, and the new, hesitant, fearful United States.
Senator McCain has been proclaiming recently that he's the real agent for change in the US, not Barack Obama. However, that doesn't wash with Prof Garrett.
"McCain's two core policies are fundamental Bush policies - tax cuts for the wealthy and strong support for the war in Iraq. How could he not be Bush 3? But US voters don't seem to care about that."
What about Sarah Palin? Very few Americans had heard of her until the Alaskan Governor was announced as Senator McCain's running mate. Since her hard-hitting Vice Presidential acceptance speech, there's a reason she grabbed the headlines - and not just because she's an attractive, evangelical Christian, young "hockey mom" with a Down's Syndrome child and passion for shooting wild animals.
"Because no-one knew her, expectations of her were low," said Prof Garrett, "so she blew everyone away. McCain pulled a cute, fluffy bunny out of the hat - and got an attack dog."
It remains to be seen if Senator McCain's choice of the untried Sarah Palin as his running mate is a stroke of genius, or a wild misjudgment. Will it matter that the American public doesn't know much about her? It seems not, at this point, even though she'd be a "heartbeat away from the Presidency of the United States", if the Republicans won on November 4.
And if they did win, many Americans would be celebrating - but what about Australia, and the rest of the world?
If BBC World is right, it appears we won't be.
This week OffTheBus is publishing a variety of stories that feature the presidential election from an international perspective.
By selecting Governor Palin he may have for now changed the electoral map, by lowering the bar for the Vice President.
The Statesman qualities that some expected have given the way to pandering and candor on important issues facing the country. The candor that resulted in Senator Mc Cain being called a Maverick has given away to denial of anything that might cost him a vote.
I thought that Obama was thin on experience but never thought that I would say that Senator Mc Cain is thin on accountability and honesty.
I will take the risk on someone who wants to try to governor versus someone who just wants to be elected. Governor Palin may be acceptable to the 117,000 who voted for her in Alaska but she lacks the credentials to be in the White House other than on a tour.
cheers trish
I suspect "who is he?" means "why is he?"
With Obama talking change, it means a change in the narrative, which could be dangerous. Remember, the last few people who brought liberalism to US politics in the 60s were all summarily assassinated -- all within the span of a few years -- and not by lone gunmen (another fable).
Change is not a popular narrative, especially in a racist culture. It took me some 20 years abroad to realize how the powerful symbolism of the American narrative can make people stupid enough to believe that no change is good enough.
As rjmller pointed out, that excuse does not fly. Two books about himself and his politics destroy that excuse. Opps. I forgot, most Americans don't read anymore - at least they don't read non-fiction; they do watch FOX TV....
-- trish
This is simply ridiculous. I had enough information about Obama to vote for his Senate run in 2004, and I now have about 1000 times more information than I could possibly need to vote for him as President in 2008.
America - the land of the free, but free from what?
Obama '08
-- trish