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Why Apple is Doomed

Posted: 05/31/11 03:32 AM ET

The Motorola Xoom has more memory than the iPad 2. It has a larger and higher-resolution display. And it runs flash. Venerable tech blog Engadget reported that "it outclasses the iPad in many ways."

Before launch, Motorola unleashed a heavy media campaign, making obvious their intent to attack the market leader. In a $5 million spot during last year's Super Bowl, Motorola mimicked Apple's famous "1984" commercial by depicting a lone Xoom-toting yuppie surrounded by white-robed Apple acolytes.

In a way, the ad was right: Nobody uses a Xoom.

Motorola's optimistic estimate put sales around 200,000 units in two months. Apple's iPad 2, meanwhile, sold a million in its first weekend.

2011-05-26-tablets.jpg

It was a remarkably easy outcome to predict. The Xoom was typical of Apple's competition: feature-packed but unpolished. Noted gadget pundit Jon Geller wrote that "It's almost as if Google decided to try and pack as much in as possible to advance the tablet category forward... I'm not sure it has succeeded." The iPad didn't have quite the feature set, but it didn't matter. As usual, Apple won through design.

2011-05-26-wahoo.jpg

While they do make superior hardware, their secret sauce is interface design. Apple consistently develops interfaces so intuitive that instructions would seem silly. Even toddlers can navigate the iPhone effectively. Their products simply make sense, in a way their competitors seem unable to match. Because of this unique advantage, Apple has achieved their greatest success creating mobile devices, where the interface is psychologically closer to the user.

Since releasing the iPod, Apple has dispatched challengers with Jedi-like ease, brushing aside giants and upstarts alike to become the most valuable tech company in the world. In the meantime, they've built a giant fanbase whose love for the company borders on the religious. The Apple advantage is good taste, and the originator of that taste is CEO Steve Jobs.

2011-05-26-steve.jpg

"Apple is the most design-savvy company in the world, and it's because of Steve," says Ray Riley, a former Apple designer. Jobs is a brilliant marketer and the company's visionary. But his most important role is as tastemaker.

Longtime Apple engineer Mike Evangelist was once tasked with heading the design of a DVD burning program for the Mac. His team developed dozens of sophisticated mock-ups and gathered to present them to Jobs. "He picks up a marker and goes over to the whiteboard," remembers Evangelist, "He draws a rectangle. 'Here's the new application,' he says. 'It's got one window. You drag your video into the window. Then you click the button that says BURN. That's it. That's what were going to make.'"

According to Inside Apple, Jobs holds court every Monday, reviewing each product under development at the time. The company's image is also under his constant scrutiny: he once demanded that a slab of Italian marble for Apple's SoHo store be shipped to him first for inspection. He is Apple's filter, personally ensuring that his stringent design standards are met across the board.

2011-05-26-regent.jpg

But Jobs is suffering from pancreatic cancer and is currently on his third leave of absence since 2004. Ever secretive, he keeps his condition tightly guarded. But he admitted in 2009 that "my health-related issues are more complex than I originally thought."

While Apple has fared well during his leaves, they are not a proper indicator of what the company would be like without him. While off-campus, he continues to exert a huge influence (he remained CEO during his most recent absence), and his legacy is fresh.

His management, even his vision, is replaceable. But that brilliant sense of taste, to which Apple owes their success, will not be matched by the next regime. His death would leave Apple closer to the pack than ever.

2011-05-26-OS.jpg

When that edge is gone, Apple will no longer be able to operate as they have become accustomed. Without vastly superior products, their arrogant marketing will fall on deaf ears. Consumers will consider alternatives more readily. Their prickly policies towards developers will take a toll.

The company is keenly aware of this weakness, and preparations are well underway. They have even commissioned an all-star team of business professors to write a series of case studies chronicling critical decisions in the life of Apple, hoping to groom young executives who can seamlessly step in were the worst to happen. But in Jobs, they posses the most valuable creative mind in the world. Apple is not just the latest great tech company, it is historically great, and to maintain that level without the irreplaceable taste of Steve Jobs will be impossible.

 

Follow Ty Fujimura on Twitter: www.twitter.com/tyfuji

The Motorola Xoom has more memory than the iPad 2. It has a larger and higher-resolution display. And it runs flash. Venerable tech blog Engadget reported that "it outclasses the iPad in many ways." ...
The Motorola Xoom has more memory than the iPad 2. It has a larger and higher-resolution display. And it runs flash. Venerable tech blog Engadget reported that "it outclasses the iPad in many ways." ...
 
 
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05:09 PM on 06/05/2011
The same thing was said about Walt Disney, who was also the hands-on genius behind HIS brand. Walt Disney has been dead for 55 years, and the Disney brand is stronger than it was when he was alive, so 1) don't be so quick to kill off Jobs and 2) even when he DOES pass away, Apple will do just fine. Granted Jobs' creativity and "taste" has differentiated Apple from everyone else, and it is now the most profitable computer company in the world, but the seeds for the future have been sown, and more Apple trees will grow, with even more tasty Apple products to come, with or without Steve. Jobs knows what his legacy is, and is smart enough to pay attention to THAT detail as well, and I am sure that he has prepared the compost carefully to nurture his brand far into the future, beyond his finite lifetime. It's not about the money for Jobs, and he will not allow his brand to die on the tree when he does.
05:34 AM on 06/03/2011
.
as a designer/artist, Steve Jobs is
the Van Eyck/Vermeer/Rembrandt/Picasso of technodesign.

Replaceable?????.......not hardly..
.
01:32 PM on 06/03/2011
Hahahahahaha. Oh...you were serious...
09:34 PM on 06/02/2011
In fairness though on the computer side of things, Apple is really selling an integrated experience
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johnrf
05:01 PM on 06/02/2011
Reminds of when the Zune destroyed the iPod. Now everyone has Zunes and no one remembers the iPod. Or is it the other way around? Seems like every month or so, for the last 15 years, I read the obituary of Apple.
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EAPrince
My other car is an Al'kesh
03:59 PM on 06/03/2011
It's been going on longer than that. Does get a little monotonous after 30 years though, doesn't it? I remember when friends were gushing over the Amiga OS and how it was going to destroy Apple. That was 20 years ago.
01:37 PM on 06/02/2011
John Dvorak called, he's had the "Apple is Doomed, I Mean It This Time" franchise for decades, and says that he isn't giving it up.
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nogooder
Saving GOD from religion!
12:50 PM on 06/02/2011
Apple = Police

US citizens continue to be brainwashed by these citizen surveillance products that Apple produces.

Stop buying Apple...
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EAPrince
My other car is an Al'kesh
04:04 PM on 06/03/2011
You're actually demanding that people stop buying Apple products because you, personally, just don't like Apple? Nobody is forcing you to buy their products, and there are alternatives out there. We get it, you don't like Apple because . . . well, nobody knows really, but you just don't like 'em. Really, you guys need to find a new hobby.
12:48 PM on 06/02/2011
I have already advised Paul Allen to approach google to merge with Microsoft because of the future I see for these big companies ahead. Since Paul is good friends with Steve still perhaps they should take a poll to see who would be pleased with a merger between Apple and google and Microsoft. All 3 companies will consider themselves "too big" to join, but look at what joining did for AOL and Time Warner giggle. Gee what a billion dollar mistake you made there in decision making Bill Gates when Paul saw what you could not. Apple will take a hit when Jobs dies, however, he must decide her future now and show support for decisions now if he wants his company to survive after he is gone. I say there is a big bold future ahead if all 3 companies take their pride and head out of their butts and realize each have something to offer the other in their own special avenues. Together they could change American economy overnight with my help even change the world. I am like Paul in that I say why not? What does America need and how can we create it. Just imagine for example a new streamlined electric car that runs on Microsoft technology with google maping and guidance system and Apple design. My gift to you superman, the APPLE CAR. Dont say I am not keeping my word as I just gave you and Steve the future. You owe me Steve.
09:14 PM on 06/02/2011
"A car that runs on Microsoft technology"?! Please... even the Yugo was more reliable than that!!
Although they could always just equip it with 4 giant buttons in the middle of the dash... Windows, u, r, Enter! ;-p
11:01 AM on 06/02/2011
Apple's products are rarely that much better than the competition. The real advantages to Apple products are their cosmetic appeal. But for this you pay a hefty pricetag, both in terms of money and the usability sacrifices that have to be made to make it look good.

The original ipod, for example, with its wheel instead of buttons to move up and down was absurdly clumsy to operate when you have thousands of songs, which you would expect from an MP3 player that goes into the 80GB areas. Yet people lapped this product up like nothing else was in the market.

Looks over function. Perfect for the fickle, image-conscious American mind.
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johnrf
05:03 PM on 06/02/2011
And yet my iPod 160 is easy as pie to use and operate, with 17,000 songs. And yes, people like pretty products.
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EAPrince
My other car is an Al'kesh
04:39 PM on 06/03/2011
Cosmetics are hardly the reason people buy Apple's products! Sure they have elegant designs, but you can't actually believe that's the only reason people choose them? You forget, or more likely intentionally ignore the fact, that a lot of people would take the reverse argument about the iPod. They would say the wheel paradigm is so much better than individual up and down buttons. You do realize that not everyone likes the same things, right? Diversity and all? Just because you don't like the interface does not automatically make it 'absurdly clumsy' for everyone. Obviously people liked the original iPod design or they wouldn't have bought them by the metric ton. Remember, this was before Apple was considered 'cool'.
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solarenergy
09:31 AM on 06/02/2011
An overlooked characteristic of Apple is excellent customer service. Buy an APP (Apple Protection Plan) for its devices, and they treat you like a king.

I once wrote a letter to Jobs directly when I couldn't resolve a hardware issue via otherwise helpful phone support people.

A week later I get a call from a Vice President in the Executive Office, who proceeded to oversee a complete exchange and upgrade of my Mac, in a matter of three days I had a new machine up and running, with this guy providing direct tech support, his office crowded with experts helping out.

It was phenomenal. It would never happen with Dell.
11:20 AM on 06/02/2011
Of course not. When you buy an Apple, you're basically paying for two computers. They can afford to replace your first one for free.
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johnrf
05:06 PM on 06/02/2011
I've had a bunch of Apple computers for almost 30 years. Twice they broke. First time was out of warranty. I complained and got a letter giving me a free repair the next time. 20 years later I blew the hard drive on my iMac (they blamed it on smoking) but this one was still under the extended warranty. They put in the new hard drive while I went out to dinner.
According to Consumer Reports Apple has always had the best customer service.
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Draekia
Open-minded thinker and traveller
01:19 AM on 06/06/2011
It's a whole slew of things that make e Apple/Mac experience one some people want to maintain. For others, that level of service feels "uncool," and therein lies the root of all the tech us v them BS we see constantly.
06:13 AM on 06/02/2011
Any CEO can be replaced:even a CEO like Steve Jobs. Companies gain and lose leaders every day. The key for Apple is to continue the vision, continue the innovation, and continue the communication. Will it be hard to find a new CEO who can do that? Yes. Impossible? NO! Loraine Antrim http://cxomindset.blogspot.com/
02:53 AM on 06/02/2011
A committee's idea of a horse looks something like a Rhinocamel and seldom is fruitful. Most groups stifle creativity because of their crazy "group think."

However, even if Jobs cannot continue, Apple will survive and prosper.
medialv2
Capitalism = liars & thieves
01:01 AM on 06/02/2011
Most companies fail, because they don't have a singular vision that works and are driven by committee.
medialv2
Capitalism = liars & thieves
12:59 AM on 06/02/2011
You don't replace Michaelangelo.
medialv2
Capitalism = liars & thieves
12:55 AM on 06/02/2011
Apple is doomed after Steve Jobs.
Why?
Simple. Nobody will be able to hold the same respect that Steve Jobs rightfully commands.

This guy went decades being called a fool for not opening the mac platform to OEM.
He went on his own with NEXT and Pixar and then OSX, Ipod, Iphone and Ipad.

Everyone else in the PC / Cell industry is just trying to emulate Apple products. (badly)

Steve Job innovates with the right team, because he has built the history to command that respect.

Next guy or girl CEO is mostly relatively unknown to the masses.

That alone = infighting, sabotage
11:26 PM on 06/01/2011
Apple products are over priced and over rated. Apple is for people who pay $8 for a cup of coffee that is no different from a $2 cup of coffee just because they're snobs and think it has to be better because they overpaid. The Xoom is faster with better graphics and is more intuitive than the iPad. I operated the Xoom flawlessly with no questions, instant response, and it has a beautiful display as well. I kept asking the iPads owner "how do I do this" and "why won't it respond to touch selections" and he stated that iPads aren't completely reliable yet. It responded very slowly as well. As the following quote states: "a giant fanbase whose love for the company borders on the religious" probably should be described as fanatical. And it is these 5 million devoted and unquestioning fanboys who run out and buy EVERY gadget and every updated gadget Steve Jobs releases on the market. They also ignore every problem, issue, compromise, and short coming of these products, and will be the first to go into attack mode when someone says anything that doesn't overrate an Apple product. Pull these fanboys out of the equation and the only thing Apple will sell are iPods.
medialv2
Capitalism = liars & thieves
12:56 AM on 06/02/2011
I tried the Xoom and it is fail as far as user interface.
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EAPrince
My other car is an Al'kesh
09:34 AM on 06/02/2011
You guys really need to find another hobby. We get it, you don't like Apple and your blood boils if anyone professes a distinct preference for their products. We know you are irritated at the brand loyalty of their customers. But nobody is trying to make you buy their products. There is no Church of Apple any more than there is a Harley Davidson religion or a cult of Mercedes! Those of us who generally prefer their products do so because of their unique design and function. If they didn't work or we couldn't do what we wanted with them, we wouldn't keep buying them. If you've ever looked at Apple related forums you'll see that users are not shy in pointing out dissatisfaction. We aren't "unquestion­ing fanboys", though I'm sure it makes you feel better to think that. I tend to think there are more zealots on the Hate Apple bandwagon than in the Apple camp. First you guys said Macs were just toys. Then it was years of 'Apple is going out of business or about to be bought out'. Now that they are getting mainstream success you scream incoherently about the devices being overpriced and overrated. You need to find a less stressful hobby!
10:51 AM on 06/02/2011
Yeah, imagine.... that some folks would actually buy products because they work great and they're enthusiastic about owning them! Gee, what a concept!!