Where Was Oprah? And Four Other Lessons From NH

Everyone is afraid to make ANY predictions now (including me), and that is probably a good thing. But there do seem to be some lessons from the past week's roller coaster ride.

1. Nobody likes inevitability; the "inevitable" nominee was punished in both Iowa and New Hampshire.

2. Everybody likes authencity; Hillary's passion and near-tears helped.

3. Democrats don't like ganging up or piling-on, especially against women; Edwards piling on Clinton brought out some sympathy, as did Obama's "you're like-able enough" attempt at humour. (Of course, the whole GOP field piled on against Romney, but he got no pity on that side of the aisle.)

4. Undecided people may behave VERY differently in a rowdy caucus environment (where the youthful energy of Obama's supporters was magnetic) than they behave in the quiet privacy of a voting booth.

5. Giving Oprah the week off was a big mistake, it turns out. Hillary was able to steal both the compassion vote and the women's vote in a short period - from Saturday through Tuesday - with no strong response from the Obama camp at all. Clinton brought out the big guns; Bill Clinton was blasting Obama with the memorable "fairy tale" line. Meanwhile, Obama's nuclear weapon, Oprah Winfrey, was probably thinking about what she would say at the inauguration ball. Big mistake, in hindsight.

The polls inevitably caused the Obama team to let down its guard; it seemed like big guns weren't needed in NH.

But nobody should ever underestimate the Clinton machine again.

Comments

[isis]

Having Biden and Dodd drop out of the race helped Hillary. Between the three of them Iowa got a "tough talk" overload. Plus they made Hillary's claim of experience look foolish. With them out she looked like the insider and some people are going to like that and pick that candidate.

[longislandlol]

You are a great commentator-- keep up the good work-- also- keep an eye on all the diebold machines-- did they even count the Obama paper ballots?

[AnninCA]

I do not agree that Obama "let down his guard." He was clearly working the mania path and doing it in an impressive way.

Interesting the Oprah and Obama bond, since she, too, can be condescending at times.

Jon Stewart is dead right. Much ado about a moment when Hillary Clinton simply leveled. Characterized as "crying" by slopping writers in the press is, alas, a sign that many journalists have trouble with word choice today.

I'm fairly sure that women saw what I saw in the debate. Obama's attitude was clear and I've seen it from a lot of arrogant men in my lifetime. Condescending and smug.

THAT was the defining moment for this single woman voter.

[workingclassannie]

It's nice for candidates to have celebrities working for them but, as a voter, I find it offensive to think that I'm going to be swayed by a celebrity whether it's Oprah, Tim Robbins, whatever.

The candidate, her/himself, must be able to convince the voter on the merit of her/his candidacy. It's not the celebrity who is going to be elected.

[NJDEM]

Exit polls, especially with an African American candidate in the race, should always be taken with a grain of salt. And, yes, Senator Clinton's authenticity probably helped her (although I find it funny that she was able to slip into her stump speech while being so choked up). However, everyone is overlooking the AFSCME adds that slammed Obama's health care plan. Its a shame that people put more stock in their gut feelings which are predicated on race and gender, and don't put more stock in the fact that independent groups and a certain former President blasted Senator Obama for the five days between NH and Iowa.

[RAMHaiti]

Oprah for Secretary of State,

Dr Phil for Surgeon General

[radicalmoderate]

Some folks in analyzing the New Hampshire vote see a possible "Bradley Effect" as part of the reason that Obama lost by 3%. The news spin had Obama winning with early polls that showed him ahead by 9 to 13%. They tend to blame mostly Independent voters and some Democrats who were soft or undecided on their choice and said one thing to pollsters and then voted differently.

I noticed in one case some folks were wishing to resist this "race card" explanation because it might indicate that New Hampshire's Democrats actually could be thinking about "color" as they were in the booth.

I am not sure how much that it may have entered into the numbers but remember, if it did those Independents could have also voted Republican, which a lot of them did with McCain?

Obama may need to run more on his mixed race and more directly deal with his heritage. His "blackness" has been part of the equation for blacks as well as non-blacks but it should not overly shape the message.

The questions won't go away so he needs to find a way to use it to his advantage without turning voters off. Perception is as much a part of image as is the truth. The quicker he makes people more comfortable with the race issue, just below the surface, the better for him and America.

[Rhydderch69]

Delegates won in New Hampshire Primary: Obama, 9. Clinton, 9.

Clinton won the news cycle.

[figa101]

ABC is backing Clinton. During a PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE someone brings out the fact that people don't like Hillary (remeber the woman vote). Later the MSM reported that she was attacked by Obama and Edwards even though see actually attacked them and Obama did not really respond to her (remember the woman vote). Next, all of a sudden a woman ask Hillary a question that caused her to TEAR UP (remember the woman vote) and immediately afterwards she attacked Obama. Then Fox's newpaper (which backs Hillary) put out a harsh picture of Hillary on the front page along with other media outlets which the CLINTONS have a lot of pull with (remember the woman vote). Next she attacks Obama again (with lies) and Bill attacks Obama (with lies). All of a sudden Hillary comes back with the MAJORITY OF THE WOMAN VOTE. Now if you do research right now you will see there is evidence of VOTER FRAUD right now in New Hampshire. The VOTING MACHINES (Diebold) gave Hillary a 7% advantage over Obama. They have proof that Ron Paul's votes weren't even counted. He actually BEAT Rudy. And to cover there tracks they had to WOMAN who asked Hillary the question say that she voted for Obama. YEAH RIGHT. This is OUR DEMOCRACY that will be stolen from us again. Please do your research. Tell friends and family. The MSM will not report this. Bush is backing Hillary. The MSM is backing Hillary. They need her to WIN. Make a NOTE* Dick Morris (who was Bill Clinton Brain) told Sean Hannity on his show that the Clintons are going to pull a Sister Soulja Moment (look it up) on Obama. This is a stunt that Bill Clinton used to Beat Jesse Jackson. Dick Morris said it will be very subtle. NOW- If you listen to all the PUNDITS today, what are they saying. PEOPLE said they would support Obama during the polls but since this was a private Primary, they voted for Hillary because they did not want to vote for a BLACK MAN. search BostonNow.com and Roguegoverment.com.

[TRichards]

The votes for Hillary were akin to the votes for Marie Osmond. They had NOTHING to do with the dance.

The dance here, however, is important. Will the next President reverse the damage of the Bush Administration's reign or not? Hillary -- whether or not she is seen as a sympathetic or warm personality -- won't. Obama may.

It's pathetic that so many cast their votes for the same emotional clap-trap that has them voting for an American Idol or celebrity dance competition. IF one voted for Hillary because she cried or because she wants the position so badly or because she got some bad press, then one is a damn fool. Those aren't legitimate concerns for an "informed electorate" -- just for the intellectually lazy Americans raised on far too much TV and pscyho-babble.

[USMC1980]

Oprah proved once and for all that she is a NON-FACTOR. The overinflated ego of Oprah was eclipsed by the heartfelt authenticity and true courage of Bill and especially Hillary Clinton. Oprah will now be known as the celeb who ..."couldn't get it done".

[barackoblogger]

Hillary squeaked a 2pt lead in a state that was supposed to be her stronghold. 2 months ago she was 20 pts. ahead in that state.

obama closed an 18 pt. gap in 2 months. pretty impressive, I'd say.

And in terms of delagates, it's a tie.

Folks, this is going to be a battle. Obama is up against the Clinton machine. Success will be hard, but it will be earned.

And it will make him a better candidate. This is the vetting process everyone has been asking for.

[nomobull]

PLEASE STOP BUYING INTO THE MEDIA SIN ON THIS. CLINTON PEOPLE SHE WON BY 2 PERCENT IN A STATE SHE WAS SUPPOSED TO WIN BY DOUBLE DIGITS.AND OBAMA ONLY LOST BY 2 PERCENT IN A STATE WHERE A FEW WEEKS AGO HE WAS SUPPOSED TO LOSE BY DOUBLE DIGITS. COMEBACK TO ME MEANS WINNING FROM FAR BEHIND THIS AND WAS NOT THE CASE. BUT THE MEDIA ONCE AGAIN JUST CAN'T LEAVE IT ALONE.WE HAVE 48 MORE STATES TO GO.

[poeticjustice4all]

Where was Oprah? Good question. And I have some others:Where were all these young people that were going to take a stand for change?

Where were the so-called "independents," yearning deeply for something completely different? Where were these scores of rebellious republicans anxious to cut from George W. Bush and run to Barack H. Obama?

Barack should've saved that stirring "yes, we can" speech for some other night because, in fact, no you didn't.

Where was any of the brave new coalition of kids and cross-overs Camp Obama claimed was ready for change? True -- they showed up to vote, but by the time they'd left the polls, their support for Mr. Obama vanished into thin air.

[Tellmethetruth]

When it comes to "hope" remember Bill Clinton grew up in a town in Arkansas called "Hope."

For that matter, so did Huckabee. Hard to believe one little town called Hope in Arkansas, one of the poorest states in the US could produce one President, and two Presidential candidates.

You wouldn't spend your whole life in a town name Hope and not know what this virtue means. Obama sits at the feet of the master.