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Victor Stenger

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Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence

Posted: 08/14/10 10:07 AM ET

Even the most pious believer has to admit that there is no scientific evidence for God or anything else supernatural. If there were, it would be in the textbooks along with the evidence for electricity, gravity, neutrinos, and DNA. This doesn't bother most believers because they have heard many times that "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence."

However, just repeating a statement over and over again does not make it true. I can think of many cases where absence of evidence provides robust evidence of absence. The key question is whether evidence should exist but does not. Elephants have never been seen roaming Yellowstone National Park. If they were, they would not have escaped notice. No matter how secretive, the presence of such huge animals would have been marked by ample physical signs -- droppings, crushed vegetation, bones of dead elephants. So we can safely conclude from the absence of evidence that elephants are absent from the park.

For thirty years physicists have been searching for a particle called the Higgs boson that hypothetically plays a key role in the universe, so important that it has been referred to (perhaps facetiously) as the "God Particle." In the standard model of particles and forces put in place in the 1970s and consistent with every observation since, Higgs bosons pervade the universe and generate mass, the very stuff of matter. We have failed to observe them so far because we have lacked the necessary instruments. However, there are good theoretical reasons to believe that the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) in Geneva, now accumulating its initial data, should provide evidence for the Higgs. If it does not -- a prospect most physicists regard as possible -- then the Higgs boson would be shown not to exist.

That is the situation with the Judeo-Christian-Islamic God. Until recent times, absence of evidence for his existence has not been sufficient to rule him out. However, we now have enough knowledge that we can identify many places where there should be evidence, but there is not. The absence of that evidence allows us to rule out the existence of this God beyond a reasonable doubt.

Now, I am not talking about all conceivable gods. Certainly the deist god who does not interfere in the world is difficult to rule out. However, the Judeo-Christian-Islamic God, whom I identify with an uppercase G, is believed to play such an active role in the universe that his actions should have been detected, thus confirming his existence. Let me present four examples.

I will begin with the origin of the visible universe. Our knowledge today allows us to push back in time to barely a trillionth of a second after the universe began. Extrapolating from there to the origin, we find that the universe began in a tiny (but not infinitesimal) region of space. Now, information only exists when it is embodied in some physical system, and we know that there is a limit to how compact information can be. This tiny region of space could not have contained more than a few bits of information -- far too little to specify the universe that evolved from it.

As the universe expanded, it could hold more information. This created an environment in which order could emerge -- as, over time, through an endless series of random events, it did. But the tiny amount of information contained in the very early universe was not enough to include any plans of some creator at that time. This allows for the possibility of a deist god who set things up, started things going randomly, and then left. It does not allow for some specific plan of creation to be embodied in the universe from the beginning. A God with such a plan can be ruled out beyond a reasonable doubt.

Next, consider the claim that the universe was designed. Many people give this as a reason to believe in God. They cannot see how the order of the universe can have come about naturally. However, observations in physics, cosmology, and biology have been scoured for evidence for design in the universe, evidence that should be there if there were a designer God. None has been found. This includes the frequently heard claim that the parameters of physics and cosmology exhibit a fine-tuning for the evolution of life. That subject will be covered in great detail in my next book: The Fallacy of Fine-Tuning: How the Universe is not Designed for Us. My conclusion is that the claims of fine-tuning are based on inadequate knowledge of physics.

Intelligent design in biology has been thoroughly refuted in recent years, so I need not say much. Everywhere biologists look they find evidence of randomness and haphazard arrangements that would be called incompetent if they were designed. No matter where scientists cast their eyes, the universe they see looks just like it should look if there was no divine design.

Third, consider the supposed power of intercessory prayer. Well-executed experiments by reputable institutions such as Harvard, Duke, and the Mayo Clinic have failed to find that prayer improves the recovery of hospital patients. Apologists simply say God did not choose to respond to this test. But you can bet they would have changed their tune if the results had been positive. Trillions of prayers have been tendered over millennia. Of course, most sick people get better anyway, except once. If the God most people worship and pray to does exist, intercessory prayer would have a better batting average than what you would get from the normal operation of the natural world, including luck. It doesn't.

As the final example, the Abrahamic God is believed by his worshipers to talk to people and provide information they otherwise did not know. Nothing could be easier to test scientifically. All you have to do is find a few examples where a truth has been revealed that later was confirmed. This could be something simple, such as a prediction of some future event that turned out to be confirmed. This has never happened.

Of course, claims of revelation can be found in all three monotheisms, but none stand up to critical scrutiny. The so-called prophecies in scriptures were all made in the distant past and can't be tested since the events prophesied have already happened, or, as in the case of Jesus returning in a generation, long been falsified.

In all of these examples, evidence for God should have been found, but was not. This absence of evidence is evidence of absence. It refutes the common assertion that science has nothing to say about God. In fact, science can say, beyond any reasonable doubt, that God -- the Judeo-Christian-Islamic God -- does not exist.

 
 
 
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10:30 PM on 10/11/2010
I know I shouldn't be laughing at any serious writer expressing his own opinion (even though he can't own his own facts) but still I find Mr. Stenger's intellectually dishonest, near Evangelical rant quite hilarious.
firstly, because I know a non-scientific Ad Hominem argument when I see one,and secondly, how on earth could a theologically untrained novice say anything meaningful about biblical prophecy, and pray tell, by what scholarly authority does he presume to pontificate on how many of the prophecies in the Scripture have or have not be fulfilled?
of the slightly less than eight hundred thousand words in the King Jame version of the original manuscripts, there are over 834 fulfilled prophecies, this before we even leave the ground of the Old Testament. And with a above average grasp of history, a Bible and a Concordance, anyone can see this for themselves.
And, on the contrary, if there was one documented proof that the Bible was inaccurate, it certainly would be coming from scholars with an axe to grind talking out of the side of their mouth, it would make world wide news, and be publish in every major newspaper on this planet!
but such is the power of misinformation, that so many today believe the Bible to be inaccurate.
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09:51 PM on 10/11/2010
Victor Stenger in this piece mocks God and the Scripture, but the Scripture mocks him, as well as characterizes this thread's debate on his baiting us, as "vain jangling,...of science so-called"

And I would advise Mr. Stenger if he wishes to find evidence of God so dearly he spent all his time searching for Him, he should go and find the nearest little storefront church, and fall upon his knees, and if his heart is right, he will certainly find Him, and doubtless return to us, and break our teeth with the Good News!
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General Public
Microbiologists have found my microbio contagious.
04:13 AM on 09/15/2010
Brilliant post, Victor Stenger! I agree wholeheartedly and wish there were more posts like yours on Huffington Post espousing the atheist point of view! I have fanned you for this post. Thank you for writing this and putting it out there! We need more people like you out there promoting a rational worldview. I am personally a philosophical materialist, believing only in material reality and not in things that do not physically exist, as well as a philosophical naturalist, believing that everything is part of the natural scientific order and nothing is supernatural. Therefore, in my worldview, religion, horoscopes, psychics, ghosts, telekinesis, Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, the Tooth Fairy, and everything else supernatural are all entirely fictional, although I do enjoy fiction. When I was growing up, I read "tall tales" and children's stories, and was taught that God, Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, and the Tooth Fairy were all real. It didn't take me very long to realize the difference between fantasy and reality, and that all those things were actually fictional, although I was surprised that adults actually believed in God. It still doesn't really make any sense why people believe in God, but then again, it doesn't make any sense why people would ever vote Republican either, and people tend not to make much sense or be very logical in general, so it is a breath of fresh air when someone is as logical and sensible as you are in this post.
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09:34 PM on 10/11/2010
Well, you know something General Public, some of us wise adults do believe in God, and in prophecy too.

One such was from the pen of David, the sweet Psalmist of Israel: "The FOOL saith in his heart, no God!"

And, when I was quite young and a precocious reader, I read these words from a prophecy by Jude in the New Testament:

"But, beloved remember ye the words which were spoken before of the apostles of our lord Jesus Christ, how they told you THERE SHOULD BE MOCKERS IN THE LAST TIME, who should walk after their own ungodly lusts?"
Well, Victory Stenger, by his own glossing, inaccurate, Prophecy-despising testimony, has just fulfilled Jude's prophecy to the letter in your sight!!!

And as James O'dea so rightly said, in his piece "finding the Holiest of Holies" in this same issue:
that as long as spirit is denied, science will continue to live its current schizophrenia as both evocateur of human possibilities and enlightenment and servant of a frighteningly reductionist materialism?

And I for one, will remain quite comfortable with my knowledge of God, and will continue to do so, until 'Science starts dealing with the spirit...the true creative power of the universe.

The real reason why Science has been unable to find any evidence of God, is simply because they are using material instruments to in their attempts to measure a spirit!!!

St. John 4: 24 "God is a spirit:"
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Joseph-Ohio
09:55 AM on 08/18/2010
REWRITE CORRECTS TYPOS

To "NotARhetoricalQuestion" :

I was not familiar with the "God-of-the-Gaps" argument until I read your comment to one of my replies.

Since, I looked it up and discovered that to my understanding it translates into attributing everything unexplained to "God".

It may be related to my reply, but, that was not the point I was trying to make.

However, I do believe that it is impossible for mankind to understand everything about the Universe. The Universe that we think we've envisioned the magnitude and age of ( based on all of the " Big Bang " analyses I've heard and read about ) may not be reflective of the actual magnitude and age of even a larger or INFINITELY large Universe. I think we will NEVER know even that. I think there will always be "gaps".

To me - the Universe is Godly enough for me to believe in - I had better the way I look at it - the REALITY is that I'm living in it and part and parcel of it - like every other person / living thing / inanimate object / material / partical / form of energy mankind knows of.
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Joseph-Ohio
09:51 AM on 08/18/2010
To "NotARhetoricalQuestion" :

I was not familiar with the "God-of-the-Gaps" argument until I read your comment to one of my replies.

Since, I looked it up and discovered that to my understanding it translates into attributing everything unexplained to "God".

It may be related to my reply, but, that was not what the point I was trying to make.

However, I do believe that it is impossible for mankind to understand everything about the Universe ? The Universe that we think we've envisioned the magnitude and age of ( based on all of the " Big Bang " analyses I've heard and read about ) may not be reflective of the actual magnitude and age of even a larger or INFINITELY large Universe. I think we will NEVER know even that. I think there will always be "gaps".

To me - the Universe is Godly enough for me to believe in - I had better the way I look at it - the REALITY is that I'm living in it and part and parcel of it - like every other person / living thing / inanimate object / material / partical / form of energy mankind knows of.
08:42 PM on 08/17/2010
You attribute to God behaviors that you seem to feel are a given, like answering prayers, prophecies, and involvement in the development of every aspect of every creature.

These are not universally held beliefs.
05:39 PM on 08/17/2010
Aie. Without searching the park, you'd never know there were no elephants. But we can search the park.

There is no solid evidence of the Higgs-Boson, and yet we're driven by theories.

Absence of evidence is still not evidence of absence.

Also, the tiny pre-universe is a weak argument against God. God would be outside of said universe.

The second example can't possibly be confirmed. If prayer worked, but only sometimes, you would obviously attribute it to luck. You don't believe in prayer. So you can't honestly and objectively exclude those cases.

The third, though, is just outright wrong. There have been cases, just they're also sometimes attributed to luck, making it impossible for you (specifically) to see them.

I'm not saying God exists. Just that your arguments suck.

/
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Jimmy B
Atheism is a non-prophet organization
01:42 PM on 09/15/2010
If prayer is effective just a often as luck, why not just rely on luck?
04:14 PM on 09/27/2010
Christian prayer is very specifically described by Jesus. Whatever you request will be granted. No caveats or exclusions. We would have seen dramatic evidence by now: someone somewhere has surely prayed for something visible, dramatic and incontrovertible.

Other traditions have other rules for prayer, but we can discount the Christian tradition through hard evidence.
10:17 AM on 08/17/2010
Good to see actual science and scientists on Huffpo for a change rather than that pseudoscientific crap that's often seen on this website.
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Hirnlego
07:07 PM on 08/16/2010
Any God who makes it so difficult to find him/her/it is not really much worth time spending on.
03:27 PM on 08/16/2010
Your title is clever, but it does not correctly reflect the essay's conclusion. The word absence is defined as "state of being away or not being present." The word does not mean "to not exist." So if you want your title to reflect the conclusion you made in your article (no evidence, no god), you should probably change the title to 'Absence of Evidence is Evidence of Non-existence.'
05:38 PM on 08/17/2010
Er, that's the saying people use. "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence."

Changing the title would make it even more incomprehensible.

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03:06 PM on 08/16/2010
this essay was a waste of everyone's time. why?

this: "However, the Judeo-Christian-Islamic God, whom I identify with an uppercase G, is believed to play such an active role in the universe that his actions should have been detected, thus confirming his existence."

any omnipotent being can avoid this trap, merely by circumventing the "laws" of physics, which it "created" in the first place. in other words, a god that doesn't want to be found, won't be found.

debating the existence or non-existence of some supreme being is certainly an enjoyable pasttime, but it doesn't contribute much to the advancement of the species, and it certainly doesn't solve any pressing social issues.

next!
04:33 PM on 08/16/2010
Yet, you felt so compelled to engage in the debate rather than focus on "more pressing social issues".

Interesting....
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8arrows
Crushing my enemies and driving them before me
04:34 PM on 08/16/2010
So do you enjoy living in a world where the rules can be changed anytime the big G wants? Why?
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Daniel Brooks
02:32 PM on 08/16/2010
In my experience, Atheists' (and Fundamentalist's) arguments are usually based on ideas assumed in their own childhood, then left undeveloped ever since, but believed to be both definitive and adhered to by others. The fact that there is no "evidence" proves only that the Atheist's own ideas about God do not exist. Experienced Mystics know and discuss something altogether transcendent of their childhood fantasies.
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8arrows
Crushing my enemies and driving them before me
04:37 PM on 08/16/2010
So these mystics know the true path to spirituality? Please identify your sources. And please do not assume that I have no reason for atheism other than the fact I was told I was going to hell because I listened to Metallica and played Dungeons and Dragons.
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pdferguson
Micro-bios? We don't need no stinkin' micro-bios!
06:07 PM on 08/16/2010
Which is exactly why religions make such a big deal about indoctrinating children at an early age. Once they have implanted the "god" virus, it's very difficult to eradicate.
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rationaljimmy
love-child of Tom Jefferson & Carl Sagan
02:19 PM on 08/16/2010
To all our Godly (Stenger's capital 'G' religious) friends: If you disagree with Stenger's deduction, challenge yourselves to make a list of all the times per day you use, or take advantage of the benefits of, the scientific process in making your decisions, informing your choices, or seeking treatment for a medical condition. You are all scientists, and are all addicts to science - except you choose not to apply it within your religious comfort zone.

To all our deist (lowercase 'g') friends: you are exempt from making the above list, and may spend the next hour talking amongst yourselves about the spiritual force in the universe which never made any promises, predictions, proclamations, or punishments. Evidence for those gods has never been searched for, and needn't exist.
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rationaljimmy
love-child of Tom Jefferson & Carl Sagan
03:35 PM on 08/16/2010
Part two: Godly friends, make a list of all the times per day you employ rationality, and perhaps even express exasperation or surprise at others who are not acting rationally. If you give yourself one minute for a 10-minute work commute, would it be irrational to assume you'll be on time? Do you express strong language at another commuter who may pull out in front of you - even screaming at him: what are you THINKING? Are you CRAZY? Do you shake your head at funny home videos of people irrationally sledding down a slope toward a precipitous drop-off? Congratulations - you are a rationalist. You're using the same thought process that Stenger is using. It's fun, isn't it? Now, apply this to all the aspects of your life. Rinse. Repeat.
09:45 PM on 08/16/2010
I employed Rationality today...but she called in sick. I employed a psychic to find out why, and a homeopath to help her body heal. She came back to work tomorrow (according to the psychic, the homeopath wasn't too sure)....

Oh wait...
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oldfuzz
...within my mind
02:02 PM on 08/16/2010
If one's view of god is that of the transcendent, the question of god's existence can be ascertained only in the mind's eye; therefore, saying I believe in god is to say I believe in the unknown. Too much of the "proof of god's existence" view is a defense against a valid observation. If only natural phenomena can exist and god is transcendent, then god cannot exist... but that doesn not mean god does not exist in the mind any more than a mother's love.
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kennethhdeome
Why can't both sides be wrong?
03:21 PM on 08/17/2010
Fanned.

Yes, but a mother love is of an actual existence being, her child. Dr. Stenger was speaking of a participatory god whose daily involvement in physical human life should have been evident physically.

As I like to tell people, the Universe doesn't give a damn about what happens between your ears. So the idea of an Omnipotent being who will judge you not just on physical impact upon the world around you, but every thought and emotion you ever had doesn't necessarily conflict with the Universe's concerns, though there certainly is space for overlap.

And your statement concerning the "mind's eye" is fallible, t best, because even the most imaginative human cannot begin to fathom the realities of Omnipotence. At best we assign human characteristics to our god so we can feel kinship despite the obvious disparities of our existences. At worst we assign human characteristics to our god to excuse our own inhumanity; further proof of just how far we have to go before we no longer have to argue ourselves superior to the animal world.

Does not the scientist search the physical world and do not the faithful search the abstract, meaning mainly within themselves? Yet if the latter does enter into or cause occurrences within the former, would there not be some form of evidence to be discovered other than individual faith?

Dr. Stenger qualified his remarks, just as you placed god into the mind. Apparently you think his missing evidence is hiding inside himself?
doctor-ruth
Read, think, and question.
01:15 PM on 08/16/2010
Faith is one of six philosophical epistemologies (ways of knowing) just like science is another (the combination of two epistemologies, empiricism and rationalism). Faith, like another epistemology, intuition, cannot be proved or disproved.
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oldfuzz
...within my mind
01:57 PM on 08/16/2010
Thank you. The doctor is in.
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Uncle Bob
Darwin loves you.
02:05 PM on 08/16/2010
I have faith that I can fly.

THink you can prove me wrong?
doctor-ruth
Read, think, and question.
07:01 PM on 08/16/2010
Slow down and read the post you are replying to .... I said (not me, Philosophy 101) that faith is a way of knowing something, but can never be proved or disproved.