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Wayne Winston
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Blog Entries by Wayne Winston

NCAA Predictions via Simulation

Posted March 14, 2010 | 23:14:42 (EST)

Using the well-known and highly respected Sagarin Ratings I have "simulated" the NCAA Men's tourney 5000 times. For each team, the table below gives the chance of the team winning 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 games.

For example, we see Kansas has a 31.9% chance...

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The Thinking Person's NBA All-Star Picks

Posted February 9, 2010 | 09:08:12 (EST)

Now that the Super Bowl is over, the next big sports event is the NBA All-Star Game. We believe that selection to the All-Star team should be based on how a player helps his team win. In 2000 my colleague Jeff Sagarin and I developed the Adjusted +/- Rating system...

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A Review of the NBA's Eastern Conference

Posted January 12, 2010 | 18:13:17 (EST)

The playoff picture in the NBA's Eastern Conference appears to be much clearer than in the NBA West. The top four teams will clearly be the Cavs, Celtics, Magic and Hawks, although the order of finish of these four teams is anybody's guess. The Heat seems to be securely ensconced...

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The NBA's Wild Wild West

Posted January 10, 2010 | 10:37:01 (EST)

The NBA's Western Conference is amazing. Only eight teams can make the playoffs, but it looks like 13 teams have a shot right now. To me the Lakers, Mavs, Nuggets, Suns, Spurs and Blazers look like playoff locks. Then Houston, Oklahoma City, Utah, New Orleans, Memphis and perhaps even Sacramento...

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Why the Bowl Championship Series Must Go!

Posted December 6, 2009 | 15:43:17 (EST)

In a 2007 Gallup Poll, 85% of the American public disapproved of the Bowl Championship series. This year, undefeated Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State did all they could to have a shot at the championship, but realistically, they never had a chance. It is unclear that Texas is more deserving...

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The NBA's Unsung Heroes

Posted November 25, 2009 | 13:53:54 (EST)

All NBA fans know Kobe, LeBron, DWade, and Dirk are great players. In today’s post we want to put the spotlight on some of the NBA’s unsung heroes. As you probably know, we believe in evaluating players based on Adjusted +/-. An Adjusted +/- rating of +10 for Player A,...

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The Numbers Say Dirk for MVP!

Posted November 20, 2009 | 08:37:36 (EST)

The NBA season is less than 4 weeks old but analyzing the play by play data from each game enables us to obtain many interesting insights. Our approach (called Adjusted +/-) looks at how the movement of the game score depends on the 10 players on the court. After adjusting...

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Belichick: The Long and Short of It

Posted November 18, 2009 | 08:44:22 (EST)

My colleague Jeff Sagarin of USA TODAY fame has come up with an elegant simplification of whether or not Belichick should had gone for it on 4th down in Sunday night’s Colts-Patriots game. The decision hinges on your estimates of the following three parameters:

MAKE= chance you make first down

...
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Belichick Made the Right Call

Posted November 16, 2009 | 08:57:45 (EST)

Bill Belichick is one of my least favorite people in sports. I love the Colts and do not like the Patriots. The announcers were unanimous in saying the Patriots were crazy to go for it on 4th down in the Colts-Patriots game. I hate to say it, but I think...

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A Digital Look at the NBA

Posted November 13, 2009 | 09:04:01 (EST)

How can we evaluate NBA players? We can look at box scores, but much of the NBA game (especially defense) is not captured by the box score.  It seems obvious that defense and offense play equal roles in determining a team’s success. My colleague, Jeff Sagarin, and I prefer to...

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The Importance of Schedule Strength in Sports

Posted November 11, 2009 | 13:30:00 (EST)

Introduction

I am honored to be able to blog about the interface between math and sports on the Huffington Post's new sports section. In my day job I teach spreadsheet modeling at Indiana University's nationally ranked Kelley School of Business. I also teach spreadsheet modeling at organizations such as...

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