12 Reasons Why McCain Can Still Win

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin discussing when she would deploy "nucular weaponry," the "be-all, end-all of just too many people in too many parts of our planet," as she put it in last night's vice presidential debate. She never actually answers the question.

So, you think it looks really good for Barack Obama. Well, maybe so. After all, the economy is in the tank, he's moving ahead in battleground states, John McCain has backed off his big attempt to win Michigan (where Obama never campaigned in the primary and which, until recently, had a disgraced African American mayor of one of America's most dysfunctional big cities). Sarah Palin, though she didn't further humiliate herself in last night's debate, clearly lost to Joe Biden. Oh, and the economy is in the dumper, credit markets are locked down, and McCain is tightly tied to the administration which not only mismanaged the US economy but also not one, but two wars.

And yet, Barack Obama can still lose this election. Though I'm not planning to head over to Vegas to shoot craps (John McCain's favorite), or indulge in any other form of gambling on that deal.

Here are 12 key reasons why this is still not over.

** Steve Schmidt is Mike Martz. John McCain's campaign director, the sort of Karl Rove acolyte who doesn't like that notion, though he ran the Bush/Cheney war room in 2004, who I know very well from his turnaround management of Arnold Schwarzenegger's landslide 2006 re-election as California's governor. He is the national political equivalent -- at least in this crazy race -- of the NFL coach Mike Martz. "Mad Mike," as he's known, was the master of the hurry-up-offense and the trick play as the coach of the "Greatest Show On Turf," the famed St. Louis Rams offense of the late '90s and early part of this decade. I won't bore you with football talk, or the details of what actually underlies what Schmidt is up to -- something I discussed with him at length two years ago called "the Boyd Cycle," a theory of warfare developed by retired Air Force Colonel John Boyd that is focused on a series of very rapid analyses and disorienting moves-- but suffice it to say that McCain was dead in the water when Schmidt took over three months ago and then bedeviled Obama constantly until the present financial fiasco. The one other thing I'll say about the Mike Martz offense is that all its inherent risk-taking allows an aggressive opponent to sack the quarterback on a regular basis.

** The return of Mike Murphy. When Schmidt was taking over in early July, yet another former chief strategist to Arnold Schwarzenegger I know well, McCain's former senior strategist Mike Murphy, made a move to return to Team McCain at its head. Murph made the mistake of doing this through the media, mainly through the frequently erroneous propagandist Bill Kristol. Ironically, I think Schmidt and Murphy could have worked together. But Murphy's media moves made it impossible, not that he knew that, so he ended up on MSNBC, getting dissed by Keith Olbermann. But I hear he has another comeback bid in the works. Murphy represents a kinder, gentler John McCain. Who America has to see again at some point if he is to win this election. One problem. He's seriously dissed Schmidt and the rest of the McCain high command. In public. Oops.

** A calmer John McCain. But can McCain be a calmer, kinder, gentler candidate again? In his first debate with Obama which, as I predicted, he lost, he was deeply perturbed. He seems very put out at the thought that he has to put up with Obama. Who he memorably said in May -- when Obama was ripping him for unsuccessfully opposing former Navy Secretary-turned-Virginia Senator Jim Webb's New GI Bill -- was "not even qualified to discuss veterans and military matters." One thing is clear, if America keeps seeing the angry and entitled John McCain going up against a cool and authoritative Obama in these debates, this election will not be close.

Could Jeremiah Wright return front and center to the American political stage?

** America "turns the page" back to a calmer economic moment, enabling cultural issues to come to the fore. Some say it's just bad luck that McCain is running against Obama in a year of economic crisis. Others think it's poetic justice, since he has mainly supported the Bush/Cheney economic policies. Whichever it is, McCain needs a greater sense of calm in the US economy. It could happen.

** The closed credit spigot is opened. Of course, in order for Team McCain to turn the page away from a pervasive sense of economic crisis, the locked credit market must become decidedly unlocked. Right now, the State of California is in deep crisis, with its usual cash-flow issue at this time of year metastasizing in to potential disaster as the usual lenders turn a deaf ear. This is going on everywhere. Of course, if big financial concerns really want a continuance of Republican governance in the White House, they can start lending money. We'll see how they "vote."

** McCain finds an economic initiative ... other than suspending his campaign to pass the Wall Street bailout bill, earmark reform, and big tax breaks for corporations and the rich. The campaign suspension fell flat, as McCain delivered nothing much and ended up debating Obama last week anyway. Earmark reform, well, hardly any voters know what that bit of Potomac-speak means and it's a drop in the bucket of the federal deficit anyway. The tax breaks? "Joe Sixpack" on "Main Street" sitting around his "kitchen table" -- and each of those are egregious cliches used by supposed populists who don't know many people outside their very own elite bubbles -- doesn't relate to big corporate tax breaks.

Schwarzenegger had a big infrastructure program that was central to his re-election campaign. Maybe McCain can do something to stimulate the economy. Or push for a health care program. Something that concretely gets things moving or helps "average people," another pol-speak cliche, with their real lives.

With an easy win over John McCain's friend Misha Saakasvhili in the Georgian war, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev proclaims there will be no "new Cold War" as he courts German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

** The debate shifts to national security. McCain, of course, sees himself as a wartime president. And we are at war. It's just not war that is presently playing to his 20th century war hero strengths. But a sudden crisis that people relate to -- not Russia's easy war with Georgia, prompted by McCain's rather gullible friend Misha Saakashvili's predictably backfiring baiting of the bear -- could shift things quickly. This would not be triggered by McCain, a man of honor in these areas. It might be triggered by someone abroard who wants McCain elected, for their own purposes. As with Osama bin Laden's very late move in 2004, which helped stop John Kerry's late surge against President Bush.

John McCain's new attack ad hits Barack Obama as an inveterate tax raiser of the far left masquerading as a center-left political figure.

** The campaign refocuses on Obama. Clearly, the McCain campaign wants the focus all on Obama, his youth, his relative inexperience, his relatively exotic background, his supposed economic, social and geopolitical radicalism, and his associations with Jeremiah Wright, Bill Ayers, etc. This means a highly negative campaign, waged both by McCain and aligned entities. This is tried and true for the Republicans.

** The media is cowed. One thing the McCain campaign has proved expert in is cowing the media. It helps that they don't really want to be pals. McCain did, famously so. But that was then and this is now. The frequently over-the-top reaction to Sarah Palin and her various melodramatic modes from the media and others actually is very helpful in this. Because then the media has to correct for its behavior. Which, had it been steady and focused all along, would not be the case. Schmidt, while shepherding Bush Supreme Court nominees, demonstrated early on his ability to take media outlets out of play. That's still happening.

** For a very current example, despite Schmidt and company's yeoman work in prepping Sarah Palin to give a mostly unembarrassing performance last night, it's not unlikely that Palin would have ended up turning in another ABC or CBS-caliber performance. But, with the media somewhat intimidated after its earlier feeding frenzy when she was named, the format did not allow for ready follow-up questions.

** As a result, Palin on many occasions ignored the question she was asked and talked about something else. Literally, amazingly, expressly, by her own statements.

** Finally, moderator Gwen Ifill was not at all aggressive, having had her professionalism impugned by the revelation that she is writing a book about the age of Obama. A very bad idea for the sole moderator of a debate, obviously. And which the McCain campaign knew about, naturally, and "revealed" just before the debate. Making it not a revelation at all, but an effective move.

So, while the stars are (mostly) aligned for an Obama victory, it ain't over till it's over.

Comments

[repjazz]

I find it amazing how McCain supporters by into the hype that he is selling. Has anyone paid attention to the fact that McCain seems to be recycling Obama's ideas in his current speeches. I noticed he started doing it after debate number 2. He started small at first then when no one called him on it I guess McCain thought that no one would notice. I did. If Obama"s ideas are so bad for the country why is he now trying to lure Independent voters with the same albeit slightly verbally altered message that Obama has been using from day 1? As if we would not notice.

[PansyRose]

If you follow the Palin/McCain logic that Obama and Ayers are friends as they served on the same board in Chicago, then would it not follow that anyone in Chicago who dealt with Ayers is also a terrorist? This would include all the Republicans too. I though Ayers was the Citizen of the Year in Chicago a few years ago. So, it would seem the entire town of Chicago is full of terrorist. Send in the FBI and the military to find these terrorists and wall off the entire Chicago area to protect us from such people!!!!!!!

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

I seriously dislike what Ayers did 40 years ago. And I am not all that happy with some of his more current statements.

That said, if you play the association game, you can link me to both socialism in America and the Iran/Contra scandal, neither of which I favor.

It's a desperate ploy.

[ibsteve2u]

The thing I noticed about those 12 items is the scarcity of items that both help America and can be attributed to actions on the part of McCain.

In other words, McCain is primarily reliant upon external forces - from big banks loosening credit in the face of a declining economy to our profit-before-patriotism corporations returning jobs to America - working miracles in 30 days or less.

I do believe that George W. Bush is going to defeat McCain in a Presidential election for the second straight time.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Bush is McCain's worst opponent. Again.

[sharonh]

Number one reason should have been that people fear him. We want a prez we respect, not fear.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

People fear who? Obama?

No, they don't. Just some people, a small minority.

[uheardme]

14. Israel can bomb Iran

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Non sequitur.

[JustLeftOfRight]

Why won't the MSM expose the lies of the Ayers claims? First, they're not pals. They simply served on a board together and have no social ties. And it was for a charity for cripes sake. For all of Ayer's radical doings in the 60's he's now a respected educator. It's just utter hypocrisy. But I guess that's all they've got, right?

[uheardme]

Read the NYT article. The Ayers stuff is BS. They are acquainted, but their not friends.

[mjc]

Excuse me, but just "an acquaintence", hosted a big push off party for Barack Obama when he decided to run for the Ilinois State Senate. And they did see other, more than twice a year as was stated by Barack Obama, in the neighborhood, on the board of a NGO, and in other fund raising bits.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

See my latest piece re the Ayers stuff.

[BBDisk]

Hmmmm .... sure looks like JFK II was deep in on the action that JFK III is trying to pin on the Repubs.

Bill Clinton: "Indeed, one of the things that has helped stabilize the current situation as much as it has is the purchase of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America, which was much smoother than it would have been if I hadn't signed that bill. ...You know, Phil Gramm and I disagreed on a lot of things, but he can't possibly be wrong about everything. On the Glass-Steagall thing, like I said, if you could demonstrate to me that it was a mistake, I'd be glad to look at the evidence. But I can't blame [the Republicans]. This wasn't something they forced me into."

[JustLeftOfRight]

Yea, well Clinton had to play with the devil to get anything done given he had a Repuglican congress. Well guess what, Obama won't!

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Yes, it's all Bill Clinton's fault.

Too bad the regulators were all appointed by Bush.

[TRYKER]

Someone's wishful thinking cap is stretched to the max. Try some tinfoil, sometimes it brings in the strangest truths.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Indeed.

[bls1956]

Everyone who plans to vote should read the latest issue of "Rolling Stone" magazine.Of course this article will be derided as originating in the minds of pot smokers and LSDers.If, however, you have the cojones to overcome your biases, you may learn what kind of person John McCain really is: a sick spoiled brat, with a foul mouth, a bad temper, a liar, a flip flopper, dangerously ambitious and self serving.If McCain and Palin win, this country would literally be committing suicide.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

There are wingnuts on both extremes.

[stevefromkelso]

Reason # 13....W. delivers the (severed) head of Osama bin Laden

[Stephen C. Rose - Huffpost Blogger]

These are mostly hail mary passes. Schmidt and McCain are exactly the opposite of what Murphy-McCain would be. The commitment to Hillary-style attack at this late date trumps any attempt at the calm and judicious McCain idea. He is incapable of not broadcasting exactly what he thinks and feels.

I personally think McCain will have a Hillary bump, partly because the media abhors a runaway victory. But I think it is like February when anyone who could do math and understood the Obama effort knew the primaries were over.

Besides McCain has been pretty consistent in the temperament department, which is why there are Republican Senators silently praying for his defeat. For national security reasons.

Between the independents' rejection of Palin and McCain's confused cluelessness on the economy and how to deal with that crisis, one hears a door creaking closed.

[BottomLine2008]

The Reps can have 527s do dirty work.

Where are Obama's?

[uheardme]

I agree with you but I'm hoping no one is over-confident.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Yes, the door is closing. As I mentioned in my lead and my close.

[BottomLine2008]

Hah!

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

I believe you meant ... "Heh."

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

We know that won't happen. Since he let him get away at Tora Bora.

Actually, at this point, it wouldn't help all that much.

[Edmonsky]

I do not see how McCain and his campaign are going to turn this election as verdit on cultural issues if Obama and his campaign know how to go about it. They say that the best defense is the best offense. Therefore, any charge should be turn back at the accuser without try to defend it. Let me cite an off the cuff example for illustration.

Jeremiah Wright is a product of black civil right experience and one of its drivers is to see things in polarities racial context and victimhood. Obama is a post racial product that see things in their unique perculiarities and uniquness. It is a generational issue. But Americans are proud that their society has become more tolerant and inclusive. But Republicans in every election circle would rather discuss cultural divisions in other to avoid rendering their account of stewardship as we have seen with the financial melt down. John McCain says he is for country first and other things secondary. America wants us to talk and share our views how we are going to lead the country out of this recession rather than discussing Jeremiah Wright and Bill Ayers.

Obama"s mantra ought to be; McCain says that he puts his country first. His country wants him to talk how he wants to lead the country out of recession rather than engaging in political opportunism.
politics second. I am going to talk about the economy and kitchen table item issues.

[BottomLine2008]

Obama has not been big on the attack front. That underlies how McCain could win.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Obama has gotten bigger on the attack front since I wrote this.

[mjc]

If the Rezko scandal can be shown to have an Obama component, and it certainly does seem to be strange that suddenly $2 million was available for Obama's mansion, as well as the Ayers friendship and their collegial relationship on various charity and political issues, PLUS Jeremiah Wright gets some more play in the MSM, all could offer further proof of Obama's bad judgment. Obama sat in that church for 20 years, and with his young daughters, and heard this so-called minister rip the United States and mainstream America. Sure it is a generational thing, but the younger generation was taking it all in with no objection until he was called on it.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

What seems strange?

That Obama made a ton of money as a best-selling author and used it to buy a house?

This sort of innuendo only deludes you.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

The culture war per se is not enough, especially in this environment.

[Sammy00400]

McCain's problems.

Obama killed the reverend controversy quite well. McCains chances depend on big issues out of his control getting better, not just staying the same. The media can try to trip him up in interviews (The View comes to mind). Unabashedly anti-McCain media wasnt around in 2004. A tougher democratic campaign than in 2004. He is 72. His erratic behavior cannot be undone. The economy will likely get worse in the next 3 weeks. It certainly wont get better in battleground states. In a military crisis McCain will probably instinctively be too hawkish. A crisis in Iraq will hurt him more than it would help him. Sarah will not win any independents like he hoped. The worst attack ads against Obama have backfired. Rove-ish pro-democrat independent campaign ads... like the one about McCain and cancer.

Anyways there is more. But yes there is no guarantee Obama will win.

[BottomLine2008]

Obama killed the Wright controversy?

Man, there is some wishful thinking.

For libs, sure ... :)

[JustLeftOfRight]

That's okay, let's bring on the witch doctor..some pretty damning video of Ms Palin there. Good try, see ya!

[uheardme]

Keating 5 and Jack Abramoff, anyone? His activities in Vietnam and his inaction regarding soldiers MIA in vietnam can be mined for a lot of material, if we want to GO DIRTY>

McCain was censured by the Senate wasn't' he? Do we know the whole story?

[TRIATHLON]

THE GRAND CHESSBOARD MATCH VS A PAWN

We are in the middle of the Grand Chessboard Match, of Full-Spectrum-World-Domination, with the (USMIC) United States Military Industrial Complex playing the strategy of Zbigniew Brzezinski, Vs Soviet Russia playing the strategy of Vladimir Putin, and now were stopping to discuss the movements of the pawn in the middle of a match?

It doesn"t matter who is sitting in the chair moving the pieces, on the board and it doesn"t matter who is in the Oval Office Imperial Presidency or any other position of the (USMIC) government, they are all just pawns in the game. Stick an earphone in their ears, money in their pockets, and all the same just pawns. And, were losing the game anyway, the era of Pox America is over.

You got" a earn that paycheck and pay the bills, somebody has to move the pieces on the board for their masters, it doesn"t matter which the (IPND OR IPNR) The Imperial Presidential Nominee from the Democratic or Republican side, so someone should write about the pawn in the game, it"s a paycheck

[BottomLine2008]

This doesn't have much to do with "Soviet Russia" ...

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Well, of course it matters who is POTUS. It certainly matters to all those countries. McCain, for example, is the most anti-Russian major politician in America.

[BatedBreath]

Bringing Jeremiah Wright up again would be devastating for the Obama campaign if HIllary hadn't raised his ugly head in the primaries. At this point I believe Obama can survive another round. However, I do hate seeing those banner headlines declaring a widening spread. I'm superstitious enough to think that bragging about it will put the hex on it. So I'm keeping my fingers crossed. *;o)

[BushSunkOurShip]

They have shown that it is no longer necessary for the attacks to be of true information, so the sky is the limit....
Has McSame or Palin ever told the true , when someone points out their lies they say they are wrong , even when it is caputured on video...
This country is now run by criminals & elitest which has made their wealth & power by dividing and destroying any input from the citizens of this country
Our President , Congress , House and corporations have shown that the deceitful & criminal turn out to be in first place..
Look what the 7 years have stolen form our country with their criminal , corrupted and unconstitutional actions..
Not only did they take regulations off "ALL" corporations and financial institutions they now disregarding any concern for the wishes or the demands of the citizens take out a loan in our name to feed these criminals more of our taxes...
Write a check for thousands of dollars you do not have in the bank and you will be in jail in a heartbeat, not given more money from the very people you have just robbed...
Our constitution , democracy , freedom no longer exists or do we have a say in any of our government's actions.
Our social programs along with our voting right have been just about abolished.
We no longer have privacy , independence , to choose how & for what our tax money is spent.

[BottomLine2008]

Hopefully true, but we don't know that. I never thought the Wright mess was over.

[uheardme]

I hear you.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Hillary didn't raise the Wright Stuff. That came from the media.

[monicaangela]

Am I seeing things? Has anyone noticed the McCain-Palin Ad by Google at the bottom of these comments?

[BushSunkOurShip]

This shows you that money controls everyone....

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Hey, if people are willing to give money ...

[BottomLine2008]

Yes! Bradley is really for McCain and Palin!