French President Nicolas Sarkozy with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev yesterday in Moscow.
Russian politics is very tough. While I'm no expert, I've followed it for many years. In 1994, when the State Department placed a former top aide to then President Boris Yeltsin with me for several weeks as he moved around the country learning American politics, I remember that he spent much of his time on the phone to Moscow, trying to deal with physical attacks on his reformist friends.
Moscow is not such a Wild West under Vladimir Putin, whose KGB expertise has led to consolidation, but aggressiveness is a major factor in its politics. Which brings us to the debacle of Russia v. Georgia. While the politicians in America talk through their hats about what they're going to "do," here are eight key things to know -- and one big question -- about the Russia-Georgia War.
** Who gave the greenlight to Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to launch an offensive against the capital city of the breakaway republic of South Ossetia? America has hundreds of military advisors and trainers in Georgia. To prepare Georgian troops for service in Iraq (they were the third largest national contingent, behind the US and UK) and for the intended NATO membership. It's inconceivable that US officials didn't know about the Georgian offensive. Who gave the greenlight for what became a debacle for Georgia? Russia used the move as a rationale to pour its troops into South Ossetia and as a pretext to then shatter the Georgian military and do everything else it's done in Georgia.
Russia's military has gotten plenty of practice in Chechnya and Dagestan, which is how Putin came to power in the first place. It helped the US take down the Taliban in Afghanistan. But US sources say they were "very surprised" by Russia's rapid and decisive reaction to the Georgian offensive against the capital of breakaway republic South Ossetia. Being very surprised is never a good thing in politics. Some 1,650 US troops conducted a joint exercise with the Georgian military in mid-July. As a show of force. But they were gone when the Georgians attacked Tskhinvali. And the Russians invaded Georgia. So much for the show of force.
** The price of oil actually went down during the war. Contrary to widespread predictions, and what frequently happens during a geopolitical crisis. The oil markets seemed actually to have confidence about the Russian move. And no concern about supposed Russian attempts to destroy a major oil pipeline in the country, which led the Drudge Report to proclaim "The Pipeline War." I keep a live near real-time link on New West Notes to world oil markets every day, and the sense of calm was striking.
** As a result of its military being smashed, Georgia had to withdraw its forces, some 2000 troops in all, from Iraq, another blow, leaving the US even further holding the bag there as Britain draws down its own forces.
** Russia's move exposed the hollowness of US security guarantees to Georgia, whose leader is an American-educated lawyer who named a street in his capital city after President Bush and employed John McCain's chief foreign policy advisor as his lobbyist. There were simply no American forces which could be brought to bear against the Russians. And the Pentagon, pinned down in the Middle East, has no interest in fighting nuclear power Russia.
** Which makes the long-standing American policy of expanding NATO up to Russia's borders -- a policy that goes back to President Clinton -- look good so far for not much more than annoying Russia. Which it does, immensely. Along with the proposed US anti-missile shield to be based in Poland and the Czech Republic, supposedly to guard against, um, Iranian missiles.
** Russian pride has also been wounded by Kosovo. The treatment of Serbia during the 1999 Kosovo War, when Russia was still in chaos and less powerful, rankled, as did the righteous ouster of Slobodan Milosevic. I predicted at the time that a rump battalion of Russian paratroopers would move on Kosovo's only airport, in Pristina. It was a rare moment of pride which didn't accomplish much, though it did infuriate then NATO Commander Wes Clark. This year, Russia had to stand by as Kosovo finally gained its independence. But unlike Georgia, Kosovo isn't next to Russia.
** Russia has much better cards to play now. There is its major role with Europe. McCain has been saying all along that Russia should be expelled from the G-8 group of eight advanced industrial nations. But the major Western European countries won't try to isolate Russia. French President Nicolas Sarkozy worked out a ceasefire accord in Moscow that is advantageous to Russia. Germany's foreign minister just poured cold water on the idea of shunning Russia. Russia is big business for Europe, its main supplier of natural gas, oil, and uranium.
** And Russia has a huge role in the Middle East. The truth is that the various facets of the war on terror have been very good for Russia. Geopolitical instability means high oil prices. High oil prices are great for the Russian economy. And it's one of the world leaders in weapons technology and arms dealing. Their best anti-aircraft systems in Iran, for example, could make that troublesome nation virtually invulnerable to attack from Israel or the US. That may be why Israel has agreed not to sell weapons to Georgia. And Russia's help is very important to America in containing Iran's nuclear ambitions.
So what does it mean? It means that most of what you're hearing from the politicians in America is just rhetoric. And that Russia has scored a big win. Let's see if it can avoid turning it into a loss.
Jeffrey Mankoff: The Road to Tehran Does Not Run Through Moscow
Washington's long quest for Russian aid has failed, and the Obama Administration needs to shift its focus elsewhere while it still has time to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
Oleg Kozlovsky: Killers of Russian Human Rights Activists Will Not Be Punished
The death of Natalya Estemirova is not the first tragedy in the recent history of human rights activism in Russia and in Northern Caucasus in particular.
Russia Magazine: Canadian Model Hosts a News Show in Chechnya
Unable to exercise its feeble control over the Republic in stabilizing the region, Kremlin opted instead to hire a model to deliver its blatantly positive spin.
Phillip Martin: Neo-Nazism in Russia Was A Sure Sign of Things to Come in Georgia
The danger in Russia is not the revival of an expansionist communist state, it is the ideology of growing ultra-nationalism that has found expression in Neo-Nazism.
Brzezinski: The West desisted from extending the NATO "membership action plan" to Georgia -- a preparatory stage for becoming a member -- out of deference to Russian objections. It is now clear that the deference shown to Putin, in the face of his obvious ambitions, has been counterproductive. In view of what has happened, NATO ought to extend the membership action plan to Georgia, therefore reinforcing the commitment NATO made in Bucharest last March to the effect that NATO intends, at some future point, to include Georgia.
Triathlon: The New Soviet Russia will extend the "Open Hand Of Mutual Defense" too Cuba and Venezuela it is now clear that the US Military Industrial Complex has obvious ambitions, and counterproductive to world peace, but world economic and political domination thru military means.
In view of NATO's plan to include buffer states to The Soviet Russian State, the targeting of Thero-Nuclear Weapon upon NATO (EU) and other threats must be taken, and the location of The New Soviet Russia Militrary assets into Cuba and Venezuela will be necessary.
Sounds like a right-wing trope.
WILLIAM BRADLEY: What is this "New Soviet Russia" stuff?
TRIATHLON: Fair enough question; Look at it this way, Soviet or Communism is like a family name, all comes from the Communist Manafesto of Mark's and Lenin. The New Soviet Union, The Peoples Republic of Red China, The People's Republic of Vietnam, Cuba, and Venezuela, all Communist but all different in their application of the Marx government structure to fit their society. The Old Soviet Russian has now evolved to a (21th) Century form of Communism.
The United States has evolved into the "Ike" Military Industrial Complex with an Imperial President, with two wings the Socialist "Nazi" Left, and the Capital "C" Capitalist Right but still elements of the same one party the Military Industrial Complex.
The Right-Wing Capital “C” Capitalist side of the (MIC) Military Industrial Complex on the other hand seems to believe that when it comes to those evil forces around the world it is the responsibility of the US Marshall to saddle up those horse, men, and get a good rope even hang’ in is too good for them.
So, we have the (PRN) Presumptive Republican Nominee, out front on his White Horse, pistol in one hand, Winchester “76”, in the other with a New Rope on the saddle horn. Out of Georgia, Out of the G-8, don’t let them trade in the (EU) European Union Common Market.
Now, you boy’s from (NATO) The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, have to trust the Old US Marshall, you all can handle this one on your own, but we will be BEHIND YOU ALL THE WAY, Way behind. And, all you others with boarders with those Evil Forces, we have more Red Chinese Credit on our cards, and more Israeli Weapons that need to be put to use, and we will be BEHIND YOU ALL THE WAY.
Nato is not going to put boots on the ground in Georgia. You speak with optimism and hope but the truth is no one is going to war for Georgia. We will wait out the Russians again, they will take their countries and we will take ours, and then we will both wait.
It is striking how quickly forgotten is the fact that the U.S.-backed (WITH A BATTALION OF BLACKWATER INC. MERECENARYS, with a Brigade size Georgian backed by yet another Battalion of Georgian aggressors) Georgian military started the war when it brutally assaulted the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali in an attempt to regain direct control of the autonomous region. This attack prompted the A completely appropriate and legitimate response of punishment for the murder of New Soviet Russian Citizens, and New Soviet UN PEACE KEEPING FORCES.
It is the duty of the New Soviet Russia to protect and defend its citizens, and make those who bring harm to them pay for that action.
"The Grape's of Wrath" is the illustration of what happened, (FDR) was trapped in the middle of a TRIATHLON (Communism, Socialism, and Capitalism). So (FDR) made some very wise choices, to save Capitalism he re-shaped Capitalism to two parties of small "s" Socialism and small "c" Capitalism. But, the Clintons move to Capital "S" Nazis Socialism, and Bush move to Capital "C" Capitalism, and we are now caught in what "Ike" knew would be "The Military Industial Complex" that could only be controlled by an "Imperial President", and "Ike" understood that in the end "Communism" would defeat both., as did (FDR), who's small "c" and "s" preserved the country.
But the best point is this:
"Let's see if it can avoid turning it into a loss."
While russia did score points it also showed other ex-Soviet countries that Putin is bringing back Russian Empire. Do not underestimate the hate for Russian Empire/USSR in those countries. Why do you think Poland agreed to the US base today? Why do you think Polish and 3 Baltic presidents flew to Georgia. The next test will be Ukraine. Unlike Georgia it has a large Russian population which will complicate issues for Ukranian goverment. On another hand it is big enough that Russian army will think twice before invading it. Plus unlike Georgia, Ukraine borders EU so troops can move quickly.
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSLE807520080814?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&rpc=22&sp=true
And I am sure ya'all will be right there, cheering Russia on, right??
More killing and looting and burning of innocent civilians and their homes..
Bet ya'all will just be ecstatic, right!?? :^/
Michale.....
Just curious...
But, since you put forth the idea, let's run with it..
Why WOULDN'T Russia attack Poland???
Michale.....
You keep pretending like Georgia was just sitting there quietly, minding its own business, when out of the blue and for no reason whatsoever, the big, bad Russians swooped in and started bombing churches and schools. Either you have no clue what is going on in the Caucuses, or you are deliberately misrepresenting the facts.
This isn't some world domination plot by the Russians, this is an attempt to stop the expansion of NATO into forming a perimeter around Russia. It worked. Georgia's membership into NATO is canceled. The Ukraine is next, although I doubt a full scale invasion will be necessary; I think Russia has effectively demonstrated that it is serious, and that the west is all talk and no action. Expect NATO expansion talks to cool in the upcoming months.
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I would like to know where NATO can come up with one million troops, not to mention supporting that massive number of people.
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NATO consists of 36 countries across the globe.. The combined armies of NATO represent about 3 million boots on the ground. That doesn't include US troops because, as everyone knows, the US is stretched pretty thin when it comes to boots on the ground...
Out of that 3 million strong army, NATO has approximately 8500 in Afghanistan...
You can bet that putting a mil or two boots in theater won't be too difficult of a task for NATO. Especially given the proximity of the FEBA and the stakes involved should Russia be allowed to retain control of Georgia..
Michale.....
Tell me something, I see you on here everyday talking about this Georgia stuff... what's in it for you? Why are you pushing the pro-US empire position so strongly?
It is ignorant to think that the United States has any rights to anything in Georgia.
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Fair enough.. I don't agree, but it's an opinion and I respect yours..
However, NATO does have a right due to the pipelines that feed Europe.
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Tell me something, I see you on here everyday talking about this Georgia stuff... what's in it for you? Why are you pushing the pro-US empire position so strongly?
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I talk about a lot of issues. This just happens to be one of three or four I am participating in.
As for "what's in it for me"??? I enjoy good debates.. Nothing more sinister than that...
Michale.....
But there are limits to power.
Which the Pentagon gets.
It's the ideologues who prattle on.
The US wouldn't put in ground troops.. We simply do not have the boots necessary to do this.
It will be NATO who puts boots on the ground, not the US..
And, considering the proximity of European NATO forces to the FEBA, I can assure you that NATO will not have a problem putting boots on the ground.. That, coupled with air assets and SBGs already enroute to theater, you can bet that ONE WAY OR ANOTHER, Russia is leaving Georgia...
Michale.....
Michale.....
Peter the Great said, We will always welcome on to the soil of our "Mother-land" those who come to us with the open hand of friend-ship, but we will resist to the death all those who come to us with the closed fist of WAR!
The New Soviet Union, will defend the Soviet Russian Mother-Land as they did Stalingrade, "NOT ONE STEP BACK!". It is us the United States Industrial Complex and the Bush Imperial Presidency that has led to this Heating Up of the Second Cold War. Putin will do what he said make no mistake about that, Putin will send Soviet Bomber Inter-Continental Thermo-Nuclear capable Air Craft with the same drone and missle attack wing mounted weapons along with bomer capabilities, to Cuba.
(NATO) forces have always know that in an armed conflict with Soviet Forces it would be a Nuclear Confrontation. It is insane for Europe to engage in a Thero-Nuclear Exchange with the Soviet Union.
The Soviet Union has since World War I, sought to maintain buffer states between itself and others on the opposite side of its boarders, delay entry into the Soviet Mother-Land, to prevent slash and run retreat, to a position of NOT ONE STEP BACK. The Soviets man for man are as tough as they get, Crazy Ivan deserved the nick name.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23532788-details/Video%3A+Georgian+TV+reporter+shot+by+Russian+sniper+during+live+broadcast+carries+on+with+her+report+with+bleeding+arm/article.do
Oh yes.. The Russians are the "good guys" here, right???
What's next?? You guys gonna be cheering on the slaughter in Darfur???
Michale.....
Get a hobby.
Michale.....
Things are what they are.
Donald Tusk said the US had agreed to a key Polish demand that it improve Poland's defenses in exchange for placing 10 missile defense interceptors in the country.
"We have achieved ... an agreement with the Americans... The negotiators are finalizing the deal now," he told Polish media on Thursday.
But Moscow considers the shield a security threat designed to undermine Russia's nuclear deterrent.
And, Putin has said that when this happens a wing of Soviet Inter-Contintial Bombers will be flown to and stationed in Cuba, with Thermo-Nuclear Weapon Capabilities. COLD WAR TWO AND A NOTCH UP ON THE MISSLES OF OCTOER.
Michale.....
The New Soviet Russia President Dimitry Medvedev has stated that "Deployment of elements of the U.S. global antimissile system in Eastern Europe (The Czech Republic and Poland) only makes the situation worse, We will need to react to this adequately. Our American and European partners have been warned."
The Military Industrial Complex of the United States and its Imperial President will not dictate to the New Soviet Russia what it may or may not do concerning thermo nuclear security threats issues with bordering neighbors especially when it concerns. The (21st) Century is not another Century will not be yet another century of Pox United States Military Industrial threat intimidation.
The Military Industrial Complex and the Buffer Zone between Israel and Persia has left the Under Belly of the United States wide open. The Nit Wit Bush and his Military lack luster kiss asses should have been more concerned about this Hemisphere and the New World and less about creating a Capital “D” Democracy and Capital “C” Capitalist Country in the Middle East.
And, now with the United States trying to establish an American Military and (NATO) presence in Georgia, the homeland of Joe Stalin, it is up to Putin to take seriously the knowledge that The Military Industrial Complex, Imperial Presidency is “The New Soviet Unions” Nazis State of the (21st) Century. The Military Industrial Complex is making every effort to place a Nuclear Weapons Ring around The Soviet Union, prevent any access to the (EU) European Union Common Market and now trying to kick them out of the G-8. The only option left is not stagnant defensive but South American Active Aggressive Defensive Strategic Military alliances and ring around The Military Industrial Complex, tit for tat.
You know you just have to love the guy, my man Putin, the guy unlike the dim wit Bush has class and style, I’ll see you one forward missile early warning radar site, and raise you one Inter-Continental New Soviet Bomber Air Wing in Cuba, just love it.
But, my man Putin should be thinking ahead and plan a non-aggression treaty with Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, allowing the building of a New Soviet Naval Facility for both Surface and Sub-Surface Fleets, in exchange for the building of Military Air Bases and the sale and training of Venezuela’s Air force with the newest of the New Soviet Union Fighter Aircraft, while allowing the basing of more Bombers in Venezuela, along with Offensive and Defensive Missile Systems.
The Peoples Republic of Red China in their own self interests should sign a mutual defense agreement with the government of IRAN, with the same deal that Putin should make with Venezuela.
The Nit Wit Bush took his eye off the ball and now he left the United States with the short end of the stick. There is more to the International Interests of The United States than (NYC) New York City >> Industrial>> and Washington, D. C. >> Military>> and Israel the (51st State).
Neat trick.
There was no fighting in Saudi Arabia.
They are exporting oil and natural gas.
In 2001 they cut taxes.
Wow what novel concepts.
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Can someone please explain why no one can step in and help Georgia?
What would happen if the USA (or any country) started defending Georgia by attacking Russia?
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The fact is, Russia's attack was lightning fast and brutal.. Not too surprising considering the helplessness of their victims..
NATO won't attack Russia. If Russia does break the ceasefire they agreed to, NATO will put boots on the ground in Georgia. Based on my experience and expertise, I would estimate that the initial NATO force will be at least 40,000 troops, backed up by naval and air assets from the US. We already have a NFG heading into the Black Sea. That really should be enough to bloody the nose of the paper Bear and send them packing..
However, if Russia does ANOTHER stupid thing and escalates things, NATO can field 2 million boots on the ground in 10-14 days... US air assets should be able to keep the Russians occupied until NATO can fully mobilize...
Of course, all of this presupposes that Russia is REALLY stupid which, to be honest, I don't think they will be.. Russia is like a school yard bully. A group of big and "tough" 5th graders when picking on a single 1st grader.. But when the the 8th graders come around and stand down the 5th graders, the 5th graders will run like hell...
Michale.....
Michale....
Care to provide some details to convince us you have anything useful to say?
I have served in two branches of the US Armed forces (USAF and US Army). I was an MI EllTee during Desert Storm. I have served as an LEO and an FSO for almost a quarter of a century and have been a military and intelligence liaison to about a dozen countries spanning the globe, including numerous NATO countries..
You???
Michale.....
2 million "European" troops in a few days. 1 million "NATO" troops in a few days. 2 million in 10 days. 2 million in 10 to 14 days.
40,000 "NATO troops" in Georgia in a few days, with a "NFG" heading into the Black Sea. Whatever.
I get you hate the Russians.