8 Key Things To Know, and One Big Question, About Russia v. Georgia

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Posted August 13, 2008 | 06:05 PM (EST)



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French President Nicolas Sarkozy with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev yesterday in Moscow.

Russian politics is very tough. While I'm no expert, I've followed it for many years. In 1994, when the State Department placed a former top aide to then President Boris Yeltsin with me for several weeks as he moved around the country learning American politics, I remember that he spent much of his time on the phone to Moscow, trying to deal with physical attacks on his reformist friends.

Moscow is not such a Wild West under Vladimir Putin, whose KGB expertise has led to consolidation, but aggressiveness is a major factor in its politics. Which brings us to the debacle of Russia v. Georgia. While the politicians in America talk through their hats about what they're going to "do," here are eight key things to know -- and one big question -- about the Russia-Georgia War.

** Who gave the greenlight to Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to launch an offensive against the capital city of the breakaway republic of South Ossetia? America has hundreds of military advisors and trainers in Georgia. To prepare Georgian troops for service in Iraq (they were the third largest national contingent, behind the US and UK) and for the intended NATO membership. It's inconceivable that US officials didn't know about the Georgian offensive. Who gave the greenlight for what became a debacle for Georgia? Russia used the move as a rationale to pour its troops into South Ossetia and as a pretext to then shatter the Georgian military and do everything else it's done in Georgia.

Russia's military has gotten plenty of practice in Chechnya and Dagestan, which is how Putin came to power in the first place. It helped the US take down the Taliban in Afghanistan. But US sources say they were "very surprised" by Russia's rapid and decisive reaction to the Georgian offensive against the capital of breakaway republic South Ossetia. Being very surprised is never a good thing in politics. Some 1,650 US troops conducted a joint exercise with the Georgian military in mid-July. As a show of force. But they were gone when the Georgians attacked Tskhinvali. And the Russians invaded Georgia. So much for the show of force.

** The price of oil actually went down during the war. Contrary to widespread predictions, and what frequently happens during a geopolitical crisis. The oil markets seemed actually to have confidence about the Russian move. And no concern about supposed Russian attempts to destroy a major oil pipeline in the country, which led the Drudge Report to proclaim "The Pipeline War." I keep a live near real-time link on New West Notes to world oil markets every day, and the sense of calm was striking.

** As a result of its military being smashed, Georgia had to withdraw its forces, some 2000 troops in all, from Iraq, another blow, leaving the US even further holding the bag there as Britain draws down its own forces.

** Russia's move exposed the hollowness of US security guarantees to Georgia, whose leader is an American-educated lawyer who named a street in his capital city after President Bush and employed John McCain's chief foreign policy advisor as his lobbyist. There were simply no American forces which could be brought to bear against the Russians. And the Pentagon, pinned down in the Middle East, has no interest in fighting nuclear power Russia.

** Which makes the long-standing American policy of expanding NATO up to Russia's borders -- a policy that goes back to President Clinton -- look good so far for not much more than annoying Russia. Which it does, immensely. Along with the proposed US anti-missile shield to be based in Poland and the Czech Republic, supposedly to guard against, um, Iranian missiles.

** Russian pride has also been wounded by Kosovo. The treatment of Serbia during the 1999 Kosovo War, when Russia was still in chaos and less powerful, rankled, as did the righteous ouster of Slobodan Milosevic. I predicted at the time that a rump battalion of Russian paratroopers would move on Kosovo's only airport, in Pristina. It was a rare moment of pride which didn't accomplish much, though it did infuriate then NATO Commander Wes Clark. This year, Russia had to stand by as Kosovo finally gained its independence. But unlike Georgia, Kosovo isn't next to Russia.

** Russia has much better cards to play now. There is its major role with Europe. McCain has been saying all along that Russia should be expelled from the G-8 group of eight advanced industrial nations. But the major Western European countries won't try to isolate Russia. French President Nicolas Sarkozy worked out a ceasefire accord in Moscow that is advantageous to Russia. Germany's foreign minister just poured cold water on the idea of shunning Russia. Russia is big business for Europe, its main supplier of natural gas, oil, and uranium.

** And Russia has a huge role in the Middle East. The truth is that the various facets of the war on terror have been very good for Russia. Geopolitical instability means high oil prices. High oil prices are great for the Russian economy. And it's one of the world leaders in weapons technology and arms dealing. Their best anti-aircraft systems in Iran, for example, could make that troublesome nation virtually invulnerable to attack from Israel or the US. That may be why Israel has agreed not to sell weapons to Georgia. And Russia's help is very important to America in containing Iran's nuclear ambitions.

So what does it mean? It means that most of what you're hearing from the politicians in America is just rhetoric. And that Russia has scored a big win. Let's see if it can avoid turning it into a loss.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev yesterday in Moscow. Russian politics is very tough. While I'm no expert, I've...
French President Nicolas Sarkozy with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev yesterday in Moscow. Russian politics is very tough. While I'm no expert, I've...
 
 

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- TRIATHLON See Profile I'm a Fan of TRIATHLON permalink

NATO TO GEORGIA SOVIETS TO CUBA AND VENEZUELA!

Brzezinski: The West desisted from extending the NATO "membership action plan" to Georgia -- a preparatory stage for becoming a member -- out of deference to Russian objections. It is now clear that the deference shown to Putin, in the face of his obvious ambitions, has been counterproductive. In view of what has happened, NATO ought to extend the membership action plan to Georgia, therefore reinforcing the commitment NATO made in Bucharest last March to the effect that NATO intends, at some future point, to include Georgia.

Triathlon: The New Soviet Russia will extend the "Open Hand Of Mutual Defense" too Cuba and Venezuela it is now clear that the US Military Industrial Complex has obvious ambitions, and counterproductive to world peace, but world economic and political domination thru military means.
In view of NATO's plan to include buffer states to The Soviet Russian State, the targeting of Thero-Nuclear Weapon upon NATO (EU) and other threats must be taken, and the location of The New Soviet Russia Militrary assets into Cuba and Venezuela will be necessary.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 03:45 PM on 08/18/2008
- William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger I'm a Fan of William Bradley permalink

What is this "New Soviet Russia" stuff?

Sounds like a right-wing trope.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:32 PM on 08/19/2008
- TRIATHLON See Profile I'm a Fan of TRIATHLON permalink

YA NEED A GOOD ROPE TO HANDLE THOSE EVIL FORCES!

The Right-Wing Capital "C" Capitalist side of the (MIC) Military Industrial Complex on the other hand seems to believe that when it comes to those evil forces around the world it is the responsibility of the US Marshall to saddle up those horse, men, and get a good rope even hang" in is too good for them.

So, we have the (PRN) Presumptive Republican Nominee, out front on his White Horse, pistol in one hand, Winchester "76", in the other with a New Rope on the saddle horn. Out of Georgia, Out of the G-8, don"t let them trade in the (EU) European Union Common Market.

Now, you boy"s from (NATO) The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, have to trust the Old US Marshall, you all can handle this one on your own, but we will be BEHIND YOU ALL THE WAY, Way behind. And, all you others with boarders with those Evil Forces, we have more Red Chinese Credit on our cards, and more Israeli Weapons that need to be put to use, and we will be BEHIND YOU ALL THE WAY.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:53 PM on 08/20/2008
- TRIATHLON See Profile I'm a Fan of TRIATHLON permalink

THE NEW SOVIET RUSSIAN STATE VS THE MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX

WILLIAM BRADLEY: What is this "New Soviet Russia" stuff?

TRIATHLON: Fair enough question; Look at it this way, Soviet or Communism is like a family name, all comes from the Communist Manafesto of Mark's and Lenin. The New Soviet Union, The Peoples Republic of Red China, The People's Republic of Vietnam, Cuba, and Venezuela, all Communist but all different in their application of the Marx government structure to fit their society. The Old Soviet Russian has now evolved to a (21th) Century form of Communism.

The United States has evolved into the "Ike" Military Industrial Complex with an Imperial President, with two wings the Socialist "Nazi" Left, and the Capital "C" Capitalist Right but still elements of the same one party the Military Industrial Complex.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:07 PM on 08/19/2008
- myrddin See Profile I'm a Fan of myrddin permalink

It seems to me that the Balkan states need to form their own alliance against Russia. Maybe if they all stuck together then the price would be too high for another Russian invasion

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:08 AM on 08/15/2008
- William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger I'm a Fan of William Bradley permalink

You don't mean the Balkans.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:32 PM on 08/19/2008
- SickOfTheCrap See Profile I'm a Fan of SickOfTheCrap permalink

Do you know what the Balkans are? I think you mean the Baltic states...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:04 PM on 08/15/2008
- Chbronze See Profile I'm a Fan of Chbronze permalink

Michale,
Nato is not going to put boots on the ground in Georgia. You speak with optimism and hope but the truth is no one is going to war for Georgia. We will wait out the Russians again, they will take their countries and we will take ours, and then we will both wait.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:43 PM on 08/14/2008
- William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger I'm a Fan of William Bradley permalink

I don't see a new Cold War. I see new Cold War rhetoric.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:39 PM on 08/15/2008
- TRIATHLON See Profile I'm a Fan of TRIATHLON permalink

THE NEW SOVIET STATE VS THE MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX (PART TWO)

"The Grape's of Wrath" is the illustration of what happened, (FDR) was trapped in the middle of a TRIATHLON (Communism, Socialism, and Capitalism). So (FDR) made some very wise choices, to save Capitalism he re-shaped Capitalism to two parties of small "s" Socialism and small "c" Capitalism. But, the Clintons move to Capital "S" Nazis Socialism, and Bush move to Capital "C" Capitalism, and we are now caught in what "Ike" knew would be "The Military Industial Complex" that could only be controlled by an "Imperial President", and "Ike" understood that in the end "Communism" would defeat both., as did (FDR), who's small "c" and "s" preserved the country.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:57 PM on 08/19/2008
- TRIATHLON See Profile I'm a Fan of TRIATHLON permalink

AN APPROPRIATE AND LEGITMATE RESPONSE

It is striking how quickly forgotten is the fact that the U.S.-backed (WITH A BATTALION OF BLACKWATER INC. MERECENARYS, with a Brigade size Georgian backed by yet another Battalion of Georgian aggressors) Georgian military started the war when it brutally assaulted the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali in an attempt to regain direct control of the autonomous region. This attack prompted the A completely appropriate and legitimate response of punishment for the murder of New Soviet Russian Citizens, and New Soviet UN PEACE KEEPING FORCES.

It is the duty of the New Soviet Russia to protect and defend its citizens, and make those who bring harm to them pay for that action.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:29 PM on 08/18/2008
- BottomLine2008 See Profile I'm a Fan of BottomLine2008 permalink

It's already over.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:56 PM on 08/14/2008
- Chbronze See Profile I'm a Fan of Chbronze permalink

I disagree, I think we are just getting warmed up.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:15 PM on 08/14/2008
- ProudNeoCon See Profile I'm a Fan of ProudNeoCon permalink

Very good points. I could not agree more about Kosovo. That was the stupidest move by Clinton to get involved. It was similar situation to South Ossetia with exception that US did not arm and train KLA. As a person who was born in USSR I can tell you that Russian will never forget Kosovo.

But the best point is this:

"Let's see if it can avoid turning it into a loss."

While russia did score points it also showed other ex-Soviet countries that Putin is bringing back Russian Empire. Do not underestimate the hate for Russian Empire/USSR in those countries. Why do you think Poland agreed to the US base today? Why do you think Polish and 3 Baltic presidents flew to Georgia. The next test will be Ukraine. Unlike Georgia it has a large Russian population which will complicate issues for Ukranian goverment. On another hand it is big enough that Russian army will think twice before invading it. Plus unlike Georgia, Ukraine borders EU so troops can move quickly.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:28 PM on 08/14/2008
- William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger I'm a Fan of William Bradley permalink

There are no EU expeditionary forces. Ukraine is already splitting in its government around NATO.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:35 PM on 08/19/2008
- arvay See Profile I'm a Fan of arvay permalink

Invasion not required, just pinching the oil/natural gas pipeline.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 08:38 AM on 08/15/2008
- BottomLine2008 See Profile I'm a Fan of BottomLine2008 permalink

Why does Russia need to invade Ukraine?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:55 PM on 08/14/2008
- Chbronze See Profile I'm a Fan of Chbronze permalink

They don't, they have made their point, and we have shown we will not step in.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:01 PM on 08/14/2008
- randyjet See Profile I'm a Fan of randyjet permalink

I would hope that as a condition of aid, the US would at least demand that Georgia remove the statue of STALIN and the Stalin museum from Gori. I think that most countries in the world would be VERY upset if Austria or Germany erected a HITLER statue and museum. It is too bad that the Georgians don't feel the same.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:59 PM on 08/14/2008
- BottomLine2008 See Profile I'm a Fan of BottomLine2008 permalink

Why would a statue of Stalin bother Cheney? :)

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:55 PM on 08/14/2008
- Michale32086 See Profile I'm a Fan of Michale32086 permalink

I guess Russia is going to invade Poland next, eh???

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSLE807520080814?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&rpc=22&sp=true

And I am sure ya'all will be right there, cheering Russia on, right??

More killing and looting and burning of innocent civilians and their homes..

Bet ya'all will just be ecstatic, right!?? :^/

Michale.....

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:37 PM on 08/14/2008
- rwt1138 See Profile I'm a Fan of rwt1138 permalink

Oh please, what is this, the "dominoes theory"? I thought we'd retired that. From a practical standpoint, Poland is a member of NATO. Russia will not confront NATO directly, at least not yet.

You keep pretending like Georgia was just sitting there quietly, minding its own business, when out of the blue and for no reason whatsoever, the big, bad Russians swooped in and started bombing churches and schools. Either you have no clue what is going on in the Caucuses, or you are deliberately misrepresenting the facts.

This isn't some world domination plot by the Russians, this is an attempt to stop the expansion of NATO into forming a perimeter around Russia. It worked. Georgia's membership into NATO is canceled. The Ukraine is next, although I doubt a full scale invasion will be necessary; I think Russia has effectively demonstrated that it is serious, and that the west is all talk and no action. Expect NATO expansion talks to cool in the upcoming months.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:38 AM on 08/15/2008
- BottomLine2008 See Profile I'm a Fan of BottomLine2008 permalink

Don't be so silly. You make very little sense.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:28 PM on 08/14/2008
- Michale32086 See Profile I'm a Fan of Michale32086 permalink

If all you have is childish and immature personal attacks, why do you bother posting???

Just curious...

But, since you put forth the idea, let's run with it..

Why WOULDN'T Russia attack Poland???

Michale.....

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:32 PM on 08/14/2008
- WilliePilgrim See Profile I'm a Fan of WilliePilgrim permalink

What ever happened to the concept of self-determination for ethnic groups? Are we forgetting that these people don't want to be controlled by either the Russ or Georgians or Uzbeks or Turks or Kurds or...Americans. At one time the argument for national consolidation ran something like "well, we can't just give every ethnic group its own national soveriegnty...it would be too complex." Well, it's a complex world, we have computers and until we allow existing historical ethnic groups the right to make up their minds we will be guilty of the very kinds of abuse we so righteously think we are beyond. Automomy first.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:17 PM on 08/14/2008
- William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger I'm a Fan of William Bradley permalink

Kosovo, of course, was viewed as a very different matter than South Ossetia ...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:43 PM on 08/14/2008
- BottomLine2008 See Profile I'm a Fan of BottomLine2008 permalink

Even though they were the same.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 06:28 PM on 08/14/2008
- Michale32086 See Profile I'm a Fan of Michale32086 permalink

@RandyJet

}}}}}}}}}}
I would like to know where NATO can come up with one million troops, not to mention supporting that massive number of people.
{{{{{{{{{{

NATO consists of 36 countries across the globe.. The combined armies of NATO represent about 3 million boots on the ground. That doesn't include US troops because, as everyone knows, the US is stretched pretty thin when it comes to boots on the ground...

Out of that 3 million strong army, NATO has approximately 8500 in Afghanistan...

You can bet that putting a mil or two boots in theater won't be too difficult of a task for NATO. Especially given the proximity of the FEBA and the stakes involved should Russia be allowed to retain control of Georgia..

Michale.....

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:00 PM on 08/14/2008
- rwt1138 See Profile I'm a Fan of rwt1138 permalink

Where have you been? Russia HAS control of Georgia. Georgia is gone. They may continue to limp along as a nominally independent state from here on out, but any not