With the dramatic move of pulling his remaining TV advertising yesterday, former frontrunner Tom Campbell effectively ceded next Tuesday's Republican primary for U.S. Senate in California to ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. Fiorina reacted today by launching a new TV ad taking direct aim at incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer.
Campbell, a California fixture who's been a Silicon Valley congressman and professor at Stanford and Berkeley, led the race for the Republican nod to take on the embattled Boxer -- beneficiary of two fundraising trips to California in the past two months by President Barack Obama -- when he quit the governor's race and switched to the Senate race in January. His lead, due to residual name ID from two past Senate campaigns and favorable press coverage, continued for a few months after that. Prior to his move, strongly encouraged by billionaire Meg Whitman's camp, which wanted to remove a draw for moderate Republicans in the gubernatorial primary, Fiorina had been the frontrunner in the Senate primary.
Right after former Republican frontunner Tom Campbell pulled what was left of his TV advertising, ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina launched this new attack ad against Senator Barbara Boxer. She says Boxer, chair of the Senate Environment Committee, is more concerned with "the weather," i.e., climate change, than terrorism.
But Campbell, after a quick burst of fundraising for his Senate campaign died down, ran into trouble in March.
In a development that Whitman, perhaps envisioning herself as one of the "Golden Parachute Twins" this fall, undoubtedly did not like, the star of the state Republican convention turned out to be Fiorina. Campbell had a much smaller presence and was overshadowed. Worse still for Campbell, he struggled with his past involvement with a jihadist academic convicted of working with a terrorist group. He's had to change his story repeatedly to try to explain the controversy away.
In contrast, Fiorina's speech, delivered without a teleprompter (though she used some notes on a stool, to which she circled back from time to time), delivered in a theater-in-the-round set-up, was a big hit. As was the new film from "Demon Sheep" creator ad man Fred Davis. Featuring a giant Hindenberg head of Senator Barbara Boxer, floating across the country from Washington to California, making various pronouncements, it's a clever enough skewering of Boxer and promotion of Fiorina's pseudo-populist, anti-big government themes.
Zany ad man Fred Davis, creator of the notorious "Demon Sheep" video ripping Campbell on Fiorina's behalf as a fake fiscal conservative, amused the California Republican convention with his film of "the HindenBoxer."
For Campbell, in reality, it was pretty much downhill from there, despite still positive press coverage about his prospects. Now Whitman and Fiorina are out to lock down their big leads in the Republican primaries. That will give Republicans a pair of controversial CEOs at the top of their ticket after primary campaigns marked by constant tackings to the far right.
Let's review how this came about.
In April, Fiorina, dogged some by the third candidate in the race, far right Orange County Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, moved to garner more conservative backing and endorsements. And outside groups took advertising shots at Campbell on government spending, abortion, and guns.
In May, Fiorina really started moving. And Campbell clearly fell back.
On May 7th, the Fiorina campaign made a big move, as I reported then on my blog, New West Notes.
She had just picked up big endorsements in the preceding week, including Sarah Palin, the moderately conservative New Majority California fundraising group, and big anti-abortion outfits. The night before, she turned in the better performance in the only major primary debate. And then her team, including zany ad man Fred Davis, announced two new TV ads.
They were both positive spots. There were, sadly, no demon sheep, nor was a HindenBoxer anywhere in sight. One is entitled "Work," positioning Fiorina as superior to Boxer in "making Washington work for California." The other is entitled "Jobs," casting Fiorina as superior to Boxer in stimulating the economy.
In a morning conference call, the Fiorina crew made it clear that their aim is to activate primary voters with a hard comparison of their candidate with Boxer, rather than primary rivals. When I asked why they weren't simply shooting down Campbell -- who in my view was extraordinarily vulnerable -- they made it clear that they preferred to go the positive route instead, stressing Fiorina as a tougher candidate to take on Boxer.
As I wrote that day, their decision may also have been because they didn't think Campbell had the resources to compete very effectively. Nevertheless, they did not suggest that they wouldn't go negative if need be.
Sarah Palin talks about her support for Carly Fiorina, touting her opposition to abortion and business regulation and support for guns.
Three days later, I noted that Fiorina would pick up big new support in the following week and was well-positioned against Campbell, no matter what the polls were then showing.
On May 14th, I reported that the primary was breaking away from Campbell. Why? Because Campbell, who had been the frontrunner, kept canceling TV ad time he had reserved. He wasn't on the air then and had canceled the next week.
In contrast, I noted, Fiorina, who had closed the polling gap on Campbell, was on the air and was going up with a bigger buy the following week. And that she also had more money to spend.
By May 24th, a KABC/SurveyUSA poll had Fiorina opening a very big lead over Campbell, 46% to 23%. DeVore was far back with 11%.
Fiorina also had a big lead in last weekend's Los Angeles Times/USC poll. And yesterday, Campbell pulled what remained of his TV advertising, saying he would communicate with voters through the Internet and telephone contact.
This Fiorina ad talks about big government spending and the near demise of free enterprise in America.
It's a stunning development? Or is it?
I think Campbell was never a particularly strong candidate in the Republican primary. He isn't much of a moderate in reality, but in Republican primary terms, especially this year, he was too much of one.
He wasn't really a strong candidate in the Republican gubernatorial primary, either, though he polled well in the early going. But there he was a dangerous candidate for Whitman. If she and super-rich state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner turned off voters with incessant attacks against one another -- which is what is happening now -- they might turn to Campbell. More realistically, with Poizner running even more to the right than Whitman, she would have moderate Republican votes for the asking. So long as Campbell wasn't in the race.
While Whitman's operatives employed coercion in their backfiring bid to get Poizner out of the race, as I reported here on Huffington Post, they employed persuasion to remove Campbell from the equation.
In December, according to well-informed sources, Whitman operatives began trying to influence people in the orbit around Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger to persuade Campbell to switch out of the governor's race and into the Senate race. Campbell, whose varied career has included stints as a Stanford law professor and head of the UC Berkeley business school, had been the state finance director in the Schwarzenegger Administration.
In her only broadcast TV ad attacking Campbell, Fiorina slammed Campbell for not opposing tax increases and touted her endorsement by Sarah Palin.
The blandishments for Campbell included the promise of new backing and help with fundraising.
Campbell, though running relatively well in the polls for governor -- and probably the most dangerous candidate for presumptive Democratic nominee Jerry Brown in a debate -- had raised barely a million dollars. His only realistic hope of winning the Republican gubernatorial primary was to slide through if Whitman and Poizner savaged one another.
In the Senate primary, he could start off in the lead with residual name ID from two earlier Senate runs. There he would face only one rich candidate, ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, and far right Orange County Assemblyman Chuck DeVore.
Campbell listened to this and began seriously mulling the prospect of switching races. He did just that in January.
And when he made the move, he had newfound support.
But in the end, though he raised more money running for the Senate than he had running for governor, he wasn't able to build beyond that first flush of new support.
And so the line-up, barring the most bizarre sort of eventualities, is set. It will be Carly Fiorina vs. Barbara Boxer in the general election.
It should be a very interesting race. And that's a matter for another time.
You can check things during the day on my site, New West Notes ... www.newwestnotes.com.
"The discharge of political duties appears to them to be a troublesome impediment which diverts them from their occupations and business. If they are required to elect representatives, to support the government by personal service, to meet on public business, they think they have no time, they cannot waste their precious hours in useless engagements; such ideal amusements are unsuited to serious men who are engaged with the more important interests of life. These people think they are following the principle of self-interest, but the idea they entertain of that principle is a very crude one; and the better to look after what they call their own business, they neglect their chief business, which is to remain their own masters.... When the bulk of the community are engrossed by private concerns, the smallest parties need not despair of getting the upper hand in public affairs. At such times it is not rare to see on the great stage of the world, as we see in our theaters, a multitude represented by a few players... they regulate everything by their own caprice; they change the laws and tyrannize at will over the manners of the country; and then men wonder to see into how small a number of weak and worthless hands a great people may fall."
Alexis de Tocqueville
Do not give me a negative posting point when I say something that you don't like politically.
Which is, nonetheless, a fact.
That is foolish and childish on your part.
Don't make me hit speed dial ...
Please do yourselves and the rest of the nation a favor. Do not vote for someone like Carly Fiorina. She has demonstrated her administrative skills. She has demonstrated her concern for the people of this country.
If you think that running a thriving company into the ground is a valuable political skill. If you think an over abundance of ego without talent is something to be honored, please stay home!
Thanks for your attention! Good Luck if she wins! Maybe you'll get enough money to run a campaign if they pay you to leave too!
Carly is a total moron! Californians are pretty sophisticated, we believe in protecting the environment, and we know that people who refer to climate change as "weather" are either very stupid or very condescending.
Carly was named one of the 10 worst CEOs in history, why should Californians elect that failure to anything? I wouldn't vote for her to sweep the streets. She ruined a great company, and they are still suffering from her so-called leadership.
I wonder if Carly will try to figure out a way for Californians to renew drivers licenses through India? When she keeps us safe, will she be doing that by subcontracting to Taiwan? Maybe she'll try to merge California with Arizona?
Then there is an endorsement by a complete and utter idiot named Sarah Palin- what does that tell everyone?
Boxer is more liberal than most California voters, and has the disadvantage of long-term incumbency.
Of course, Fiorina is more conservative, etc. ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qE6DSsUJW8s
She hasn't won yet, and let's remember Sarah Palin already proved that.
But you are still VERY wrong.
As I'm about to reveal ...
"BE AFRAID, BE VERY AFRAID."
You think CA is in bad shape now? Vote Fiorina and see CA vanish into thin air.
She isn't even a real Californian- let her go home to TX or NC and run for a seat in one of those states.
Californians should remember that Boxer has seniority and is part of the majority party. Plus it is clear she has the President's ear. Send this moron, not only is she a junior, but she part of the party out of power.
And when they vote in _ (insert millionaire/billionaire name here), then they deserve it. And when that person continues to cut social services and simultaneously cut corporate taxes, they deserve it. And when they pass laws like the Arizona law, they deserve it.
You want money, ie. the ultimate american goal, then vote these people into power. But don't be surprised when the rich get richer and everyone else gets the shaft. That's how they work. This is not a surprise to anyone with half a brain. But with Americans that's giving them way to much credit.
We're so sc#$%ed.
recalling Grey Davis and replacing him with Arnold who would solve all of CA's problems
with Republican answers.....based on results......how did it work out California????????
Issa did not dream up the California recall.
And he certainly did not come up with the idea of Arnold's candidacy.
Quite the contrary ...
fiorina is overrated.
are you really that naive.
the american electorate are that dim witted. They are barely able to talk and chew gum at the same time.
And as you said they did elect Arnold, so already history shows how clueless these people are.
Your problem was that you used logic. And most voters don't. And they are not convinced by logic. It makes their thing that passes for a brain hurt. And so they run, not walk, to whoever makes their useless brain-like tissue not hurt.
the majority of CA is not that different from the rest of the country, and will often vote agianst their own self-interest.
The recall was nothing more than a civic lesson that California voters can mobilize and take out an unpopular Governor who was elected because the California voters didn't have a substantial opponent from the republican party blue-California.
Arnold's only saving grace was that he was married to a "Kennedy" and his chief of staff was a prominent Democrat and he bucked the conservatives with his cooperation with a Democratic controlled State Legislature. republicans are not to pleased with his record, but left-leaning voters aren't ready to complain. Even when he tried to first bully his right-wing initiatives shortly after he was elected (which by the way was uniformly rejected by California voters). And his substantial clout in the entertainment industry doesn't need to be elaborated.
I can't speak for the rest of the country. But the majority of CA doesn't have a reputation for being in line with the rest of the country.
As a Californian, I suppose I have more faith in the state-electorate than you have in the national electorate.
Seriously, why would you WANT people to know that Sarah Palin endorsed you, especially in California where most of the electorate that will vote in November thinks Sarah is a kook.