Inside The "Bradley Effect"

Will the "Bradley effect" bring down Barack Obama, seen here after his Wednesday night debate win?

Barack Obama has won all three presidential debates over John McCain. He has a solid lead in the polls. What could go wrong for him? Well, many say the polls could be wrong, skewed by a hidden racist vote.

The "Bradley effect" -- the notion that white voters lie to pollsters when a black candidate is in the race -- has become widely known. But what you think you know from the campaign that gave rise to the phrase, then Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley's ultimately near-miss race for governor of California in 1982, isn't so.

I was in the middle of that, doing opposition research for Bradley's campaign. I vividly recall election day that November, as reports from the exit polling done by California's leading polling organization, the Field Poll, circulated. It seemed that Bradley, the first black mayor of Los Angeles, was headed for a big win as California's first black governor. A girlfriend advised me -- in my kid, pre-Armani days -- to get a better tie to go along with my blue blazer and slacks to better impress the high command at the victory party that night in downtown LA's Biltmore Hotel.

Tom Bradley was the first African American mayor west of the Mississippi. He served as mayor of Los Angeles for 20 years.

When eight o'clock rolled around, with my spiffy new tie firmly in place, the formal projection of the Field Poll based on its exit polling came onto TV screens across California: Tom Bradley over Republican Attorney General George Deukmejian, by a whopping 10 points!

But it quickly became apparent that something was wrong. The raw vote coming in didn't reflect this projected Bradley landslide. As the night dragged on, it seemed shockingly apparent that Bradley could end up losing.

Which Bradley ultimately did, losing by one point, with Deukmejian the victor, 49% to 48%. How could Field's exit poll have been so wrong? It must have been racism, right?

Well, only if California voters also thought that two-term Governor Jerry Brown was black, too.

The Field Poll made two big projections based on its exit polling that fateful November night. Bradley as the next governor of California. And Brown as the next U.S. senator.

But Brown lost, too. And pretty much everyone knew he was white. Brown's race actually wasn't as close as Bradley's, with then San Diego Mayor Pete Wilson defeating Brown, 51% to 45%.

Talking with Brown yesterday, he said that he had trailed Wilson pretty much throughout the campaign. And had been surprised by the election night projection of a relatively easy win for him.

Brown had been a controversial if shrewd governor, winning re-election by 20 points. But he ran for president twice during his governorship. The first time entering late and finishing a distant runner-up for the Democratic nomination to Jimmy Carter. The second time encountering what John Edwards found this year, a race in which two bigger stars left no room for him, in Brown's case having to contend with President Carter and the return of the Kennedys in the form of Senator Ted Kennedy. To maintain traction in the race, Brown adopted less mainstream positions, which did not help him in California. Brown realized after running the Senate race that California voters had simply seen too much of him as a candidate in the '70s and early '80s.

Clearly, the famous exit poll was simply wrong. No racial factor was involved in Jerry Brown's loss to Pete Wilson.

So what went wrong for Tom Bradley?

First, there was a hotly controversial initiative on the ballot, Proposition 15, which would have banned new handgun sales in California. Anyone who didn't have his or her pistol or revolver by April 1983 was out of luck when it came to handgun ownership. This proved to be wildly unpopular, and went down to a massive defeat, 63% to 37%. Deukmejian, helped by a huge campaign by the National Rifle Association, targeted rural and suburban voters heavily on this issue.

Second, the Deukmejian campaign was much more aggressive than the Bradley campaign. Bradley, a stately mayor of Los Angeles, ran a stately campaign. He was the front-runner and he acted like he was the winner.

Some damaging information was uncovered on Deukmejian. But Bradley refused to use most of it, insisting on a high-minded campaign. Mindful of his perceived need not to appear too aggressive as a black man, Bradley employed a kid gloves approach with Deukmejian in debate.

And on the campaign trail, well, on the campaign trail Bradley spent the final weekend of the election traveling around California thanking people for supporting him.

Meanwhile, the attack ads and mailers by Deukmejian and the NRA whirred away all the while.

That doesn't sound like Barack Obama's campaign, does it?

Bradley actually did win in the vote cast in polling places around the state on election day, though not by 10 points. But he lost badly in the absentee ballots, which Republicans targeted heavily.

Were there voters who simply would not vote for a black man, even a former police lieutenant and successful mayor of one of the nation's largest cities, in that 1982 California election? Undoubtedly. But it's clear that the problem lay not with significant numbers of voters lying to pollsters, but with the nature of the campaign itself. Whatever anti-black vote existed, Deukmejian already had it. The event that gave rise to the famous "Bradley effect" was created by faulty polling.

Bradley went on serve another nine years as LA's mayor, a record 20 years in all, before passing away in 1998. Bradley ran again for governor against Deukmejian in 1986, but lost in a landslide. Brown, of course, following his own perception of voter exhaustion with him, withdrew from public life for a time, though he ran a think tank, before returning as chairman of the California Democratic Party, runner-up to Bill Clinton for the 1992 Democratic presidential nomination, a two-term mayor of Oakland, and now California's attorney general.

You can check things out throughout the day on my blog, New West Notes.

Comments

[rich misty]

http://election.princeton.edu/2008/09/27/the-disappearing-bradley-effect/

Highly topical link. Dr. Sam Wang is the Director of the Princeton Election Consortium (this is an .edu link) and I can assure you this analysis is the most accurate available.

While you are there, click on the "Show Your Support" button and try and help out the knife edge races, Dr. Wang has identified the specific races that will defeat the GOP attempt to save the filibuster.

[vegas9999]

Spoken like a true socialist. First we had Arnold needing a bailout, now Mass. needs a bailout. Who is going to bailout DC?

[super]

"Bradley, a stately mayor of Los Angeles, ran a stately campaign. Some damaging information was uncovered on Deukmejian. But Bradley refused to use most of it, insisting on a high-minded campaign. Mindful of his perceived need not to appear too aggressive as a black man, Bradley employed a kid gloves approach with Deukmejian...
Meanwhile, the attack ads and mailers by Deukmejian and the NRA whirred away all the while.
That doesn't sound like Barack Obama's campaign, does it?"
Actually it sounds FRIGHTENINGLY like Barack Obama's campaign! Consider: damaging secessionist material has been uncovered on Sarah Palin. But Obama's campaign refuses to even mention it. Obama runs a stately campaign, taking care not to appear too aggressive towards the "war hero." Meanwhile, the attack ads, automated phone calls, poison emails and incendiary rallies by Palin and the fundamentalist right whirr away all the while.

[Pithaughn]

it's the economy super. Unfortuanately, the worse the economic news the stronger Obama is, and if there is going to be a major October surprise it will be more bad economic news. The sub prime collapse was just one of several dozen cards in a house of cards that is now collapsing. Watch what happens in China, SE Asia etc as consumer demand dries up here and elsewhere. This downward cyclic event is far from over.

[goldnchyl]

to be seen for what they are. times, they are-a-changin!

[Mikecoatl]

The economy is a big issue now, and the political climate was far more favorable to the GOP in 1982. Obama is hammering harder than any Dem at least since Bill Clinton.

[bayside]

In my opinion , MCCain cannot win this election because they have not counted all the new dem voters that are registered at 4 to 1. The only way MCCain can win is my cheating and this is being tried as we speak and will continue. They will then say it was the bradley effect where white just couldnt vote for black. A coverup..Bet it wont work like they have planned, not this time ..We are aware of what they are doing this time and we are ready..

[LetMeUnderstandThis]

The best quotes so far "Don't get cocky" and "I have two words for you New Hampshire"

[al94147]

Obama is not too black...as Dr. Savage says he's too green. Tom Bradley, however, had zero charisma. That is not Obama's problem. His tax policies and Joe the Plumber - spread the wealth comment may be the key to electing the old white guy. Joe six pack isn't necessarily voting for McCain - he's voting against a marist and a crypto-commie.

[peacegurl48]

Barack Obama ain't no Tom Bradley!

I predict a reverse Bradley effect, especially from Conservatives.

[goldnchyl]

A new phenomenon. Something to speculate upon in elections to come. I think you're right on point.

[PuppaX]

Extraordinarily informative post. Thank you very much.

[georgebush4obama]

THE STUPIDITY OF YOU WRITERS IS THE ONE THAT WILL REMIND PEOPLE, THAT THINGS LIKE THAT 'EFFECT' HAPPEN AND THEY GO BY IT

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

You're free to ignore the facts.

[TuffCookie]

i'm not gonna lie, TBE is something i'm so fearful of and i keep it locked away in the back of my head and just hope and pray for the best. but i guess nobody'll know anything until the day after the election.

[phoenics]

Um - so are you banking on the Bradley Effect? Or are you trying to warn us that it could still happen?

[vegas9999]

solid lead in the polls????????

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Yep.

[vegas9999]

So the Gallup of LIKELY VOTERS that has it 49-47 means nothing?

[08Voter]

An average lead of 6.8 according to RCP is a large electoral lead. It basically means a landslide! Keep up.

[jobecky20]

Even if the entire electoral map is blue, people would be fools to stay home. This is perhaps the most important election in our lifetime. Just vote...ignore what the polls say. As Barack Obama said recently, we Democrats are notorious for stealing defeat from the jaws of victory. Let's not allow it to happen a third time.

[BottomLine2008]

You never heard of tracking polls?

[rich misty]

As of October 17, 5:00PM EDT: Obama: 364 McCain: 174 Meta-margin: Obama +6.4%

http://election.princeton.edu

I have been following this closely. Before the final debate Obama had 348 EVs with a Meta-margin around 6.1 - Immediately after the debate, Obama went to the current count of 364 EVs and this has held since the debate... His Meta-margin rose to 6.5

We have just seen a drop on this to 6.4 since the noon release, but Dr. Wang assures us that minor fluctuations at this point are not going to effect the race. Obama can still pull a lot more EVs by knocking, calling, and talking to people... Stuff we should all be doing at this point, our job is the ground game now that the bank account has been developed.

Also, if you follow the link, be sure to click the "Show Your Support" button on the left sidebar to see the critical races for the Senate.

Good luck, work hard, do not stop until Nov 5th

[sector1463]

I saw Doug Wilder on a show a couple of days ago. I think his experience says a lot. When he was running for Governor of Virginia he was way ahead of his opponent in early to mid October. His lead was close to 20%. On election day he won by less than 1/2 of 1%. The automatic recount was invoked. Being a Virginia old enough to remember that election I can tell you that for most of September and October there was very little if any mention of Gov. Wilder's race. In the last few weeks of the campaign season the fact that Wilder was a black man started to make the news a lot. He won. But not by the margin that everyone thought he would win by.

But you also have to remember that in 1948 everyone in the country thought that Thomas Dewey would win the election by a landslide. Remember the photo of Truman with the paper saying "Dewey Wins!"?

As Doug Wilder said over and over during his election campaign, "The only poll that counts is the elecion poll."

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

I wasn't inside the Wilder campaign, merely the campaign from which the term derives.

You know, people lose leads in politics.

Remember what the Bradley Effect supposedly is -- white people lying to pollsters about a black candidate.

[sector1463]

I love that the blogger responded to me. Thanks.

Most of the people have said that the reason for the closeness of the Wilder election after he was so far ahead in the polls in October was because of his race. His race wasn't mentioned for most of the campaign. It wasn't an issue for his other elections, ie his election to lt. governor. It was only in the last part that the Republicans started saying things about him being a black man. Before that no one mentioned it. Many people thought he was white.

That was the October surprise for many in Virginia. He won though. He was a good governor. But he was bashed for his entire time in office. After his term when the two election took place his name was used against the Democrats as a reason to elect the Republicans. It worked.

So maybe Wilder proves the Bradley Effect. And how it can be extended to other candidates years after his election.

[texaslocoman]

These "polls" are suspiciously too arranged for Obama. Nobody believes that not even the hero approach McCain displayed during the financial crisis did not affect the opinion on his favor. The Joe the Plumber questions on taxes should have given McCain at least 3 points, it didn't. The Ayers scandal should have given him some points, it didn't. Unless the American people is ready for socialism and be governed by Che Guevara and Bill Ayers, those polls are not accurate. This is heading for a big surprise on election night!

[BottomLine2008]

You need stop reading Instapundit and Powerline and all that other far right propaganda, my friend.

A tangential relationship with Bill Ayers making 3 points in the polls? Nobody cares. Joe the Plumber? Yeah, right.

[Grit]

Caging by the Republicans was used extensively here in Kansas last presidential election. Thousands of registered voters were given provisional ballots because of Republican efforts. Then the election commission allowed most of the provisional ballots to be thrown out. After the election the state republican leader publicly bragged about how successful they were in preventing democrats from voting or having their votes count. My son said it was so bad, where he voted, that people were standing in long lines waiting for more provisional ballots to be printed off because they had run out of several hundred they had started with.

[Wattree]

There's another issue that may have played into Bradley's loss as well. There were many disaffected Blacks who didn't vote for Bradley as well--and I happened to have been one of them.

Once Bradley became mayor he tended to take his Black constituency for granted in order to court the White vote. As a result, he aggressively avoided many issues important to the Black community in an attempt not to anger his new White constituents. And he also failed to stand up to Police Chief Gates.

When the LAPD shot and killed Eula Love, it outraged the Black community, yet, Bradley actively avoided taking a position in the case. The same was true with the issue of school busing. He also avoided taking a position on the bus strike. All of which was important to the Black community.

Thus, when he decided to run for governor, I looked at my ballot, and decided to skip taking a position on that race, and I'm sure that many other Black voters did the same.

[BottomLine2008]

I guess he was trying to be not the "black" candidate. He was pretty bland.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

I preferred to describe Tom Bradley as a stately candidate rather than a bland candidate.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

That's right. The turnout in many African American precincts was unusually low.

[BottomLine2008]

That's too bad. So they ended up with a right-wing Republican for 8 long years. Really good.

[jnik]

Even if the polls are accurate, the Dems need to run flat out as if there was a one - point difference. This election can't be close enough for the Repigs to steal AGAIN!
Besides, it won't be enough to simply defeat the Repigs - they have to be BURIED! There shouldn't be enough of them in Congress to stop anything the Democrats have to do to repair the damage done to this country by the conservatives.

[BottomLine2008]

That was Tom Bradley's real problem. He didn't run flat out.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

That's right.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Polls are a snapshot in time, to coin a cliche. What's true now may not be true next month. Obama has to do what Bradley didn't do. Run hard, run fast, and kick ass.

[mheister]

Good analysis. The real problem was Prop 15, which brought out a significant number of people who'd never voted before, but came out to defend their guns. And vote against the black guy while they were at it.

Even in ostensibly "blue" states like California, the Left has to choose its battles carefully. Progressives way overshot the mark in California that year. Intentionally or not, the high-minded advocates of what most Californians clearly felt was a Draconian gun law for all intents and purposes kept Bradley out of Sacramento.

[BottomLine2008]

This 1982 election was before Democrats figured out they couldn't try to take people's guns away.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Thanks. Looking back, it was breathtakingly naive to presume you could ban handgun sales in California.

[trinity]

There may be a "reverse effect" this year. I know quite a few closet Democrats on a local military base who would never admit publicly that they are supporting Obama (as military personnel are "supposed" to be Republicans). Also, in this very red area, one may get their tires slashed or car keyed, if they put an Obama bumber sticker on their car. There is a running joke in town that the local fire department is keeping track of where the Obama yard signs are as to speed their call time to a fire. All you have to do is look at the local news of Palin rallies and understand why many people in so-called "red areas are afraid to publicly admit that they support Obama.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Yes, but are they lying to pollsters or just to their colleagues and neighbors? That's what the Bradley Effect is about.