McCain's Olympic Attack Ad and Other TV ADD War Oddities

John McCain's latest attack ad stands out in the upbeat Olympics media environment.

John McCain is running attack ads against Barack Obama during the Olympics telecasts! The first time either party has run major advertising during the Games and one is going all-negative in the midst of all that positive uplift.

It's just the latest curious note in the last week of TV ad wars. Which were really the ADD wars, with both sides launching and swapping out TV ads so quickly they couldn't possibly have had any impact in actual paid airings.

The frantic nature of all this is borne out in polls, both public and private, that mostly show Obama up a few ticks in the past week after McCain's campaign -- under new campaign director Steve Schmidt (see my HuffPost profile of the former Arnold Schwarzenegger campaign manager from a month ago ) -- stopped him from gaining real separation in the race the week following his acclaimed foreign tour. Team McCain, through a relentlessly negative and mocking campaign, actually brought Obama back down to virtual parity with the Republican candidate, as I discussed in this previous piece.

What both sides have been doing in the 10 days since then is play TV ADD wars. In other words, cater to the attention deficit disorder of the cable news culture by "launching" multiple TV ads in rapid succession. This is done, as a key McCain advisor acknowledged, to drive "cable news chatter."

In other words, the ads are being used largely as video press releases. McCain's purpose being to create a media sensibility that tripped up Obama as he attempted to build a lead going into the Olympics. Obama's purpose being to create a media sensibility that strikes at the credibility of McCain's candidacy and campaign. And of course try to build that lead.

McCain rolled out four TV ads last week; Obama rolled out three. (By TV ads, I mean high-quality productions in the 30 or 60-second format that broadcast and cable requires. Not the YouTube web videos which ramble on, frequently quirkily, at whatever length, and would never run on commercial TV.)

John McCain is "the original maverick," says this ad, which actually hardly ran last week.

Last week's advertising was nearly all negative. McCain's camp touted a positive ad I'm sure the senator liked very much, casting him as "the original maverick." But it turns out that, as I suspected, according to tracking services, that it hardly ran at all as an actual ad.

What it was was bait for the media. And fodder for the McCain pushback against the idea his campaign is all about attacking Obama. Of course, the reason why McCain is competitive with Obama in this generally very bad year for Republicans is that his campaign is devoting itself to tearing down the tyro Illinois senator.

For his part, Obama's ads went virtually all negative last week. Striking back hard against McCain as a fan of Big Oil, and mocking him as a one-time maverick who is increasingly a doctrinaire conservative Republican aligned with President Bush.

My read is that McCain's regard for his legacy is a factor in how hardcore he's going to be in the race. (My read also is that, in this year's environment, McCain can't win by running a mostly positive campaign. So the more he feels pressured to be a good guy, the worse his actual chances.)

Top figures on both sides of the race told New West Notes that they think that people will be paying less attention to the campaign during the Olympics. In part because the Olympics traditionally dominate the popular media environment. In part because of the time of year and fatigue with the long and constant campaign.

The race currently looks like it's in the 3-6 point range, something top Republicans generally agree with. Which is better than it was for McCain. Of course, they were in scramble mode to prevent Obama from opening it up with the foreign tour. At one point, it looked like he might "float out of reach," with a lead of 10 points or more heading in to the Olympics period.

That didn't happen. Which was a victory for the McCain approach.

And now we're in the Olympics trough period, with Obama on an eight-day Hawaiian vacation and McCain railing against Russia's unsurprising shattering of Georgia's military forces following the foolish Georgian assault on the capital of breakaway republic South Ossetia.

Barack Obama's upbeat Olympics TV ad about a new energy economy.

Obama is up with a very positive Olympics ad. In it he speaks of rebuilding the American economy around clean tech and a new approach to energy which can free the country from its fateful dependence on oil.

McCain is up with a negative ad. This ad, again, refers to Barack Obama as "the biggest celebrity in the world," which he isn't, attacking him for being for taxes on most Americans, and government spending and, hence, against jobs. The Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania criticized this ad, like others, through its fact-checker.org for misrepresenting Obama's position on taxes.

But in hardball politics, if a piece of an attack is at least arguable, that attack will be used over and over until somebody knocks it down.

The only reason McCain is in this race is because he went heavily negative.

McCain has serious problems with his positioning in this race. That's because it looks like a change election, with vast majorities of voters believing the country to be off-track and President Bush to be a disaster.

And since McCain is much more the doctrinaire Republican than Schmidt's other most recent client, Schwarzenegger, he's already closely tied to mostly unpopular policies.

In a positive campaign this year, Obama's positioning vs. McCain's positioning is no contest.

That leaves branding. Obama's is appealing but untested. With a negative campaign against Obama, you can create enough FUD -- fear, uncertainy, and doubt -- about the exotic new figure to overcome the problem with positioning and sink the rival brand.

But is McCain, who is now on the wrong side of the positioning equation, poisoning his own brand with this constant, and personal, negativity?

McCain has some appealing maverick positions now, but he's running mostly as a conventional conservative in a bad year for that. What has been most "maverick" about John McCain is not so much his policies as his persona. And a big key to that is his image as a fun, good-spirited guy, a war hero above the simple repetition of predictable political messaging.

It may be that the McCain campaign has taken a bold and logical series of steps which are the only things keeping him in this race.

And it may also be that these steps will, nonetheless, guarantee that he cannot win the presidency.

Comments

[northcan]

Obama will continue taking the high road, but wait.........the debate's, fine time for a face to face scouring of McCain. Obama will still keep his cool, but render his tough comments in a good ole fashion outwit, outcommunicate, outright decry McCain's ineligibility and lack of foriegn affairs, military training. McCain cannot debate with honor He screws up everytime with his anger.

This need of McCain to show you that he's above you all, in a sneering, condescending attitude will deflate him with audiences.

Believe me; Just because McC ain thinks he's a hero, doesn't make it true.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Actually, as a veteran myself, I can tell you that John McCain is a war hero.

That is the wrong road to go down ...

[BottomLine2008]

Most people know he's a war hero.

[Vanska]

I think most of us agree that hes a hero. Having said that, I also think he's probably had a traumatic bra!n injury somewhere in his past. Memory lapses, sometimes iffy judgement, the inability to sensor himself at times... I know whereof I speak, my father has had a traumatic brain injury and they act much alike in many ways.

[PeacefulRevolutionary]

he is a war veteran, what makes him a hero?

[BottomLine2008]

McCain did okay in the Republican debates.

[marylandtravelinman]

It is Spaghetti Politics. Through as much as much spaghetti/or political ads against the wall and see what sticks. It has worked for them before. The GOP is adept at getting people to vote in opposition of their own best interest and believing what is seemingly unbelievable.

[BottomLine2008]

In the whatever category.

[BottomLine2008]

HAH!

[patrickjkiger]

It could be that McCain's negative ads prevented Obama from breaking out and taking a big lead. But even after this barrage Obama is still ahead by 5 points in the RCP average, and McCain hasn't succeeded in moving his own numbers upward at all. If you look at Gallup, he's been pretty much stuck in the low 40s for the past several months, with just two or three days where he's reached 44 percent. I also think that if it turns into a war of negative ads, McCain is going to be the more vulnerable one, since the Democrats don't have to resort to potentially-backfiring personal attacks--they can simply inundate viewers with images of McCain being embraced at the White House by Mr. 29 percent popularity.

[BottomLine2008]

Except Obama should be way ahead, not barely ahead.

Think the Reeps have some stuff they haven't rolled out?

Doh!

[gillyrosh]

"In part because of the time of year and fatigue with the long and constant campaign."

I can totally attest to the campaign fatigue - except that my fatigue with this particular campaign set in this time LAST year.

[BottomLine2008]

Why so serious?

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

That sounds like a Joker line to me ... :)

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Having been writing at all hours on New West Notes on the permanent campaign mode, I get it.

[lennix]

it want work this time you can't stop change and he has the whole msm and cable behind him we the american people can't sit a brag all the time about we are better then any one else in the world and then go out and vote for another liar who is liying already befor he is in the white house are we realy this stupid i hope not the whole world is watching as we go back 50 years and use race hate and put that wedge between us that was biginning to crack come on people lets show the world that we are bigger then this don' let them see us as fools again

[BottomLine2008]

My kingdom for a period.

[wmholt]

And a capital letter.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

A period?

[Zenfull]

In our family, most of us really resent all the advertising during the Olympics as taking away from the events and the good feelings we have about the competition and international cooperation.

[BottomLine2008]

No advertising, no all that other stuff you said.

[futurefile]

The same people who are outraged about Edwards lieing about his personal life should be outraged about the lies McCain tells in his speeches and ads. Not to mention the questionable character flaws apparent to anyone who does a little research about his lobbyist ties, Washington cronyism (Keating scandal), and him leaving and cheating on a disfigured wife for the rich and younger Wife 2.0 he has now. So much for family values.

[rinpochet]

As a Democrat, I am outraged at Edwards and have ALWAYS been outraged about McCain.

[gopindrag]

Tell me again why John Edwards matters to this campaign?

[TOOO]

Sad to say, all McCain has to do is keep saying "Obama will raise your taxes," and he could win. Where I live, people don't care that they're spending nearly $4 a gallon in gas, or that the housing market is dying, or even about the war. It really doesn't bother them. No, their only concern is that "liberals" will raise their taxes and take away their beer 'n cigarettes.

How do you reach people like that?

[moreupnorth]

You don't and that is what makes your country NOT so GREAT. It is dominated by thoughtless, self-centered, self-depricating individuals who don't give a crap about anyone but themselves.

[whatsthatsound]

If they can remember back far enough, you remind them of Daddy George and "read my lips". Remind them that that was a Republican lie, to win an election, and so Republicans really don't have any credibility on this issue.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Good idea. But that is too long ago for people to remember.

[Rjmartinelli]

You know. Taxes are not the root of all evil and I wish people would understand that.

Getting overtaxed can cripple your citizens, yes, however taxes are a necessary part of our national infrastructure. They keep highways paved, they keep bridges standing, they keep levees reinforced and strong.

If you give tax breaks to everyone, then there are no taxes, thus no funds to fix anything. At that point you have what? Simply stopping spending doesn't offset this because any sort of government requires spending of some sort to maintain functions.

How do you reach people when the Republicans are hitting the "greed button" (because that's what the "low low taxes" line is all about)?

You show them how these tax breaks come with a price. Higher cost of fuels, higher food costs, lost jobs, record oil profits.

Or better yet, do an analysis on the taxes and percentages paid between different income brackets....say John McCain's and someone making 50,000.

[MrTessier]

It definitely could be an effective weapon in the arsenal, but so is the national debt. As a people we bought Clinton even after he told us he would raise taxes. I'll actually get a tax break if Obama is elected so I'm stoked. I think that national debt fears will pretty much negate tax raising fears. Should end up being a draw and a non-issue.

Besides, I don't think that McCain will even want to bring it up. He's on the record for obligating to balancing the budget by the end of the first term, great strategy, but I'm sure that he doesn't want to have to discuss how it's even remotely possible. Neither campaign wants folks checking up on what the economists are predicting at this point.

[BottomLine2008]

See, the thing is, McCain is lying about Obama raising your taxes.

[Coattails]

I just saw a McCain add, so what, he is campaigning until his convention. It is a rule that if you accept public financing, something Obama once said he would accept (before he got the Oprah and Hollywood bump).

McCain will probable outspend Obama in the next 2-3 weeks. However, I think Obama will go on spending spree never seen before in Presidential politics. Let's not forget, in several primary races, Obama outspent Hillary 3:1, and still lost. I suggest Obama not make any other moves about clinging to religion and guns, and stay away from some of those speculating hedge-fund managers, those, and a couple other issues I foresee McCain tearing Obama to pieces come the debates.

We haven't seen one debate. The debate's are not for people who have already made their choice. The debate's here are for the undecided and independent voters, and the V.P. picks will be also.

Just because Obama has drawn huge crowds, does not mean he will win, McCain will win certain groups by wide margins just as big as Obama wins some of his margins, and like college students, are the most unreliable constituency in history.

Let's just wait until after the debates, at least.

[exPatPatti]

What do you mean "he still lost ". 0bama WON. He beat HiIIary. What kind of backwards universe do you live in? What is wrong with you? No grasp of reality or can't face facts? Both?

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Obviously, Obama is not the winner yet ...

[boonjava]

Humans, fallible creatures that we are, tend to yield to our uncertainties and believe outright falsehoods. But over a long enough period of time, common sense usually seeps into the collective consciousness of the general audience. If you want proof, look at Bush 43, and then think back to Al Gore and John Kerry.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Are those the best examples?

[BottomLine2008]

What examples?

[5150]

So if McCain's fave superhero is Batman, does it mean he would have cast Val Kilmer as Robin?

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

I think McCain is a non-Robin Batman fan. Kind of the current Robin-free iteration of the franchise (Christian Bale having said there will be sidekick.)

[aztecdiva]

I have to call you out on that point. Clearly Lieberman or Lindsay Graham would happily play Robin to McCain's Batman -- tights and all.

[PaulStewart]

I agree with your presentation.

I think the man running for President who focuses on "labelling" the other guy rather than presenting himself speaks volumes about himself. McCain is not Presidential material if he can't win on his ideas and policies. Certainly, he shows weak leadership if his idea is to simply throw mud and flak at others. What will he do to you as leader when you disagree with him?

So, like Bush before him (and like Bush unto him), he wants to attack and "brand" the other guy with something that people dislike or better yet - hate. The goal is to take Obama down (with lies mostly in this case as truth and reality is against McCain) beneath the low standards McCain and his team must set for themselves. If this works on the American people again, I will be amazed and disappointed. And Bush/Rove et al can say "Mission Accomplished" to the dumbing down and splitting of America with hate and wedges for another generation. Pity.

I do have faith in Americans to see both candidates with open eyes and understand exactly what each represents. They have to want to do that, but I think responsible voters will use their own good judgment. And kiss goodbye to all the "partisan diatribe", the attacks, and the avoidance of the real issues.

[MrTessier]

I have to agree. The problem is, that if you were the McCain campaign, how else would you win? I don't think he can get independents and middle of the road voters at this point, Obama's got them pretty well wrapped up. He can't run on the republican name because of it's toxicity. What policies can he use to build his candidacy on? Other then Iraq, Obama either has the same position, or has a better one.
Really the only strategy left is to run a burnt earth campaing. Unfortunately for the campaign (and fortunate for us), McCain keeps getting the twinge that makes him step back from the really dirty stuff. I think deep down, he has enough decency and dignity to not allow the campaign to turn really nasty.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Actually, McCain is running very well right now with indies.

[TXOBAMAGIRL73]

Everything that John does is in the gloom and doom. Besides forced weird borderline creepy smile and full rigor finger point. Is anyone surprised that this would be the tone of an ad to air during the Olympics. Remember the "don't hope" ad same sadness.

[dsbsh]

Where's the obvious DNC or MoveOn response ad? "It's the OLYMPICS! Why is John McCain so grumpy?" Or a longer version: clip of uplifting Olympic moment; still shot of McCain ad with text "False;" 2nd Olympic clip; 2nd still shot with text reading "negative attack;"; blank screen with plain text: "John McCain... Bummer."

[MrDeadeye2U]

I saw the McCain Ad last night played during the break right after the rousing US comeback victory in Mens 4x100 Relay. The juxtaposition of the negativity of the ad in contrast to the patriotic themes struck in the other offerings was so stark as to almost be a complete BuzzKill for my emotions.

I would venture to guess that this might create a subconscious backlash against the McCain campaign much in the same way that it might be unseemly to give an opponent the finger during the national anthem.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

That is actually what I think.

[Rjmartinelli]

I would certainly hope so. It's simply disrespectful.

[UCLAdy04]

I'm surprised more people in the meida aren't pointing out how disgusting and disgraceful it is that McCain is running attack ads during the Olympics. Every brand that advertises during the Olympics finds a way to be uplifting, inspirational, and channel the Olympic spirit...yet from McCain we get false and negative attacks. That is not what the Olympics are supposed to be about. I hope that by running these ads people will begin to see McCain for the scum he is. When contrasted with Obama's ad which has that patriotic can-do spirit...there is no contest.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

The Olympics just started over the weekend.

A lot of the press doesn't pay attention then.

Plus, a lot of them are into developing apologies for the man.

[aztecdiva]

Several people have posted diaries and comments about the ads on Daily Kos. One person said their 9 year old yelled at the screen when McCain's celebrity ad appeared. Rather funny commentary.