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William Bradley

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Nuclear's Once Bright and Shiny Future Blinks Out

Posted: 05/12/2012 3:43 pm

Don't look now, but one of the biggest and most famous industries in the world, nuclear power, once seen as the lynchpin of the future, is reeling yet again after huge political setbacks in Japan and France.

Last year's disaster at Fukushima is having an even bigger effect than the Chernobyl disaster of the '80s. The latter could be blamed on the backward old Soviet Union. But Fukushima happened in future-oriented Japan.

May has seen the shutdown of all 54 nuclear reactors in Japan. Nuclear power had provided one-third of Japan's electric power.

Then came the defeat of French President Nicolas Sarkozy.


In the wake of the Fukushima disaster, Japan has just made itself nuclear energy-free for the first time in more than 40 years. But the country hasn't prepared for the adjustment.

The new French administration plans to cut the nation's use of nuclear power by one-third by 2025. Currently, France relies on nuclear power for 75% of its electricity. (The US gets 20% of its electric power from nuclear.) New Socialist President Francois Hollande's plan would cut that to 50%. He also plans to shut down Fessenheim, France's most famous nuclear plant, which is located in an area of seismic activity on the Rhine River.

Before these developments, Germany and Switzerland both decided to phase out nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima disaster.

These are huge developments in the energy economy, and a stunning reversal for a technology that once epitomized the future.

When former House Speaker Newt Gingrich emerged as a leading presidential candidate last year, I went back and read through some novels of the future by Isaac Asimov that he and others, such as left-liberal economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, cite as major influencers of their youth.

Isaac Asimov's Foundation Trilogy, which Asimov began writing in 1941, is set in the far future. It revolves around the fall of the galactic empire and the rise of a discipline called psychohistory, the story element that so attracted Gingrich, Krugman, and others, in which human history can supposedly be predicted by a form of mathematical sociology. One thing that was so amusing to me in the stories, which are charming, is how nuclear power was constantly presented as a totem of advanced civilization, almost to the point of fetishism, with leading characters even having nuclear-powered personal devices.

By the '80s, of course, nuclear was no longer such an element of faith among futurists. But it had become a staple of the Soviet bloc, with its penchant for centralization, and was well-established in Western countries as well. Such as, well, Japan, Germany, Switzerland, and France.

I spoke at anti-nuclear rallies in the '80s and knew the late German Green leader Petra Kelly well, but I'm open to nuclear power being part of the energy portfolio.

The news flow keeps going in the opposite direction, however, even though the greenhouse effect leading to climate change was advanced by nuclear advocates as a rationale for new expansion.

Nuclear power plants are expensive to construct, despite decades of massive subsidies for fission nuclear power, now a very mature technology. And the biggest subsidies are not the direct financial subsidies, which dwarf those given to renewable energy (as do subsidies for fossil fuels, a long mature industry), but the indirect but very real subsidies of socializing risks posed by radioactive waste and potential accidents and construction costs by shifting those to ratepayers and taxpayers.

And nuclear plants may be vulnerable to cyber-warfare, an increasing concern of defense strategists. Hacking in to take down a wind farm is not catastrophic, aside from the power loss, which can be made up. Hacking in to take down a nuclear power plant is a very different matter.

Looking beyond the problems with fission reactors, nuclear fusion may hold great promise in the future. But that future is still very far off.

Here in California, we had tremendous debates about nuclear in the 1970s and 1980s. Then, during his first two terms in office, Governor Jerry Brown rejected utility plans to build dozens of nuclear plants across the state, focusing California instead on conservation and renewable energy. The state's moves on energy efficiency were highly successful, and have served as a model for many governments in the US and around the world.

After Brown left office the first time, renewable energy efforts lagged. But when his former chief of staff, Gray Davis, became governor in the late '90s, he revived them, with a 20% Renewable Portfolio Standard.

Then Arnold Schwarzenegger amped them up tremendously, in the process enacting California's landmark climate change program.

Now Brown, back as governor for an historic third term, is pushing forward to the target of one-third of the state's electric power coming from renewable sources by 2020, a target first set by Schwarzenegger. I expect Brown to win another term in 2014, which would place him at the helm of these efforts through January 2019, the year before the 33% Renewable Portfolio Standard is to be reached.

Brown says that the target won't be easy to meet, but that it will be met.

Though California turned away from the big nuclear path decades ago, with the Rancho Seco plant outside the state capital shut down by public vote in 1989 (with stars such as Demi Moore and Bruce Willis involved), the state does have two commercial nuclear power plants, at Diablo Canyon on the Central Coast and at San Onofre on the South Coast. With the big push for renewables, they won't need to be replaced.

Diablo, as it turned out, is near an earthquake fault, which hasn't been a problem so far.

San Onofre has been more problematic. It's presently in a de facto shutdown state.

Its utility owner and operator, Southern California Edison, had predicted a June re-start of the plant, but has now backed away. The dual-reactor plant has been off-line for more than three months, due to unusual levels of wear and erosion on relatively new tubes carrying radioactive water.

This isn't the first time that the plant has gone missing in action.

I reported during the height of California's electric power crisis in March 2001 that a major unreported failure at San Onofre pushed the plant offline and would cost the state big bucks to make up for the lost power on the exorbitant spot market that then existed under the state's failed deregulatory scheme. Why did it cost the state? Because Edison, like the other private utilities, had to be bailed out by the state, which was forced to take over the purchase of electric power.


"Why worry? Each of us is wearing an unlicensed nuclear accelerator on his back." Bill Murray's quip in Ghostbusters marked the shift away from nuclear's talisman-of-the-future status.

It will be interesting to see if San Onofre's absence makes any difference this summer.

How will things turn out for Japan?

Former California State Controller Steve Westly, who served on the Secretary of Energy's advisory board and warned the administration about Solyndra, travels in Asia and, though pleased by the move away from nuclear and towards renewables, worries that Japan's dramatic move may be too sudden, with potential problems this summer. Germany, in contrast, is phasing out all its nuclear plants over time, not simply shutting them down all at once.

Of course, nuclear power, despite its problems, is not the energy issue that has so fatefully driven the US down the wrong path.

Our failure as a society to develop and implement cleaner and greener energy systems in the nearly 39 years since the Arab oil embargo is the principal reason why the US is so fatefully embroiled in the Islamic world.

Both the political and media cultures in the US have failed to maintain a focus on the needed transition from the old energy economy to the new.

Much of our geopolitical quandary is driven by this failure, which has led to a heavy-handed big presence in the Islamic world, and to an emphasis on nuclear technology which inspires others to want the same.

As in, say, Iran. Which, strikingly, has not been dissuaded in the least from its insistent course by the Fukushima disaster, or by the tough sanctions imposed on it due to its deeply suspected designs on nuclear weapons.

Absent our addiction to the old energy economy, of course, much of this, maybe most of it, wouldn't be happening.

As for nuclear's future, once so bright and shiny that it was a staple of pop futurism, it appears to be blinking out. With the advanced industrial world still on shaky financial footing after the great global recession, and nuclear a major presence in the power portfolio, few countries will follow Japan in promptly and simply shutting down their nuclear plants.

But where, outside of Iran, will new nuclear power plants be contemplated? Wherever that may be, it looks to be increasingly few and far between.

Meanwhile, the imagined nuclear-powered personal devices of Asimov's Foundation future look positively quaint, especially compared to the solar-powered watch I'm wearing now. The future is a lot closer than many may fear, or like to think.


You can check things during the day on my site, New West Notes ... www.newwestnotes.com.


William Bradley Huffington Post Archive

 
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Don't look now, but one of the biggest and most famous industries in the world, nuclear power, once seen as the lynchpin of the future, is reeling yet again after huge political setbacks in Japan and ...
Don't look now, but one of the biggest and most famous industries in the world, nuclear power, once seen as the lynchpin of the future, is reeling yet again after huge political setbacks in Japan and ...
 
 
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strangiato
Ha Ha...Charade You Are
03:56 PM on 05/17/2012
To set the record straight - once again - THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS NUCLEAR FUEL RECYCLING. Only a tiny percentage of spent fuel can be reused as fissile material. More than 90% of nuclear waste is not reusable. AREVA's claims to recycling are totally bogus as clearly established in this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpxaJN0TT3U

About one hour into the video, it is revealed that Areva exports the bulk of its spent fuel waste to Tomsk, Russia. Far less than 10% of nuclear waste is actually reusable. Claims of nuclear recycling are bogus as are the nuclear shills who are heavily invested in the nuclear industry. They will lie and say anything to keep their careers and income intact. The undisputed facts expose their fraud.
03:17 PM on 05/19/2012
How about a short explanation of what is in used fuel and what is in the 10% that you say is recycled? I think you owe other HuffPo readers that much.
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Silken17
Just a hare in your soup
07:34 PM on 05/19/2012
You don't know what you are talking about. Just what do you think is supposed to be accomplished by reprocessing? Less than 10% of the fuel changes when going from fresh to spent so less than 10% is "re-usable". Get it? More than 90% of fresh fuel is non-fissile U-238 so it cannot be expected to be re-used as fissile fuel.

U-238 is included in fresh fuel to stabilize the chain reaction. As the fuel heats up, U-238 absorbs proportionately more neutrons without undergoing fission. The process is called doppler broadening and provides a negative feedback to improve reactor stability. A small percentage of the U-238 is bred into plutoinium-239 which can fission. This new plutonium can extend the lifetime of the fuel and provide additional energy. Over 90% of the original U-238 leaves the reactor unchanged.
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
CaptD
Freedom From Nuclear Fascism...
06:05 PM on 05/16/2012
Fukushima nuclear disaster: who profits and who pays? http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/news/Blogs/makingwaves/fukushima-who-profits-who-pays/blog/40463/ Bye Bye Nuclear
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wmnorton
Moderate where moderate used to be
12:28 PM on 05/16/2012
1. I'm a retired electrical engineer who spent 30 years of my working life in the Nuclear energy field. Unlike most of the population in the US I have opinions based on facts instead of opinions based on fears. The most basic question we should ask ourselves is, can we have a an electrical system based entirely upon renewable sources. I believe the answer to that question is clearly no. The wind doesn't blow all the time and the sun doesn't shine at night. so we would have to have a huge battery storage capacity to make renewable by itself plausible. So what should we have? I believe the answer is to have a system where the base load is nuclear and the daily and seasonal load are provided by renewable, i.e.; wind, solar and hydro. Note: although there are a few hydro locations that have not been tapped there are not very many. Unless we commit to relatively small installations we are not going to have much effect with hydro.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
William Bradley
I have no microbe bio.
02:26 PM on 05/16/2012
False choice.
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wmnorton
Moderate where moderate used to be
03:05 PM on 05/16/2012
So if this is a false choice what would you do? Your article says we could do it with renewable, I say that is a false choice since it is dependent upon technology that is not yet availabe. We also now have marketable electric cars. There is not enough generation capacity to convert our transporation to electric cars. Where are we going to get that additional generation. I get the feeling that you are not interested in replacing our current fossil generation with viable choices that you are just anti-nuclear.
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wmnorton
Moderate where moderate used to be
03:17 PM on 05/16/2012
So if this is a false choice, what would you do? The article indicated that you believe that our current fossil generation can be replaced with renewable, but that requires technology that is not currently avaiable. That makes me wonder, are you for climate change improvement or simply anti-nuclear.
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
CaptD
Freedom From Nuclear Fascism...
05:54 PM on 05/16/2012
Better start reading up on what's happening in the Energy field:

These explain how we can do it without Nuclear:


The High Frontier by Gerard K. O'Neill,
Colonies In Space by A. Heppenheim­er.
The Third Industrial Revolution by G. Harry Stine
The Space Enterprise by Philip Robert Harris
Mining the Sky by John S. Lewis
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wmnorton
Moderate where moderate used to be
12:27 PM on 05/16/2012
3. While there have not been new plants built there have been new designs. And unlike Chernobyl and Fukishima these new designs are inherently safe. if something goes wrong they will shut themselves down with no help from any out side power. Had these plants been at Fukishima there would have been a non-news event, The plants would have simply shut down, reached cold shut down, end of story.
outnow
Ban the bomb
12:51 PM on 05/16/2012
The problem with storage has not be solved, has it?
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wmnorton
Moderate where moderate used to be
01:59 PM on 05/16/2012
No it has not, there are some promising technological improvements, but nothing that has been proven to work on a commercial scale. The best thing for storage itself is the grid. Because of the grid, you can have small storage everywhere, there does not need to be a large storage site put up somewhere, just small stroge sites at every distribution substation in the whole country.
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
CaptD
Freedom From Nuclear Fascism...
05:56 PM on 05/16/2012
End of Story is that Nuclear can cause big problems that Solar (of all flavors) do not!

Future Nuclear is no better, since Solar is faster to construct, not RISKY and has no decommissioning cost UNLIKE Nuclear...
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wmnorton
Moderate where moderate used to be
10:56 PM on 05/16/2012
Yes solar applications are great, I have had solar hot water panels on my house for more than 25 years, but you also have to provide for the system to work when the sun doesn't shine, What my system has is a 80 gallon hot water heater, for a family of four, so I am able to store a lot of hot water, Solar electricity doesn't have the proven storage capacity yet. so are you going to build twice as many windmills yo cover the solar electical generation at nighy?
12:14 PM on 05/16/2012
Half of Pilgrim nuclear workers sent home amid contract dispute


Pilgrim nuclear power plant owner Entergy Corp. sent half of the facility’s employees home Wednesday morning after giving the union a final contract offer Tuesday night, a union official said.

“They actually allowed what they deem essential personnel in and they’re sending non-essential personnel home,” said Dan Hurley, president of Utility Workers Union of America Local 369. “We’re concerned they’ve taken such a dramatic step.”

Read more: http://www.patriotledger.com/topstories/x738804753/Half-of-Pilgrim-nuclear-workers-sent-home-amid-contract-dispute#ixzz1v39pBl4l
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Harley 2
11:31 PM on 05/16/2012
Good time to shut it down.
12:12 PM on 05/16/2012
Joke is on Progress customers stuck paying nuclear tax


Stop me if you've heard this one.

You and Progress Energy walk into a bar. Progress says it's going to order $24 billion worth of drinks, but they won't arrive until 2024. Oh, and you have to pick up the tab — even if the server drops the tray and the drinks never arrive at all.

If you sense you are the punch line in this joke, you're right. And, yes, you have heard it before.

Twice before, actually.

Last week, Progress raised the projected cost of the new nuclear plant it wants to build in Levy County and delayed its expected completion date.

It was the third such cost increase in five years. The price jumped from $17 billion in 2008 to as high as $22 billion in 2011 and now up to $24 billion today. The company doesn't expect to start producing power at the plant until 2024, eight years later than it originally thought.

And it's possible the plant won't be built at all.

But Progress' customers are still paying for it each month. Expect an extra $3.45 a month on your bill next year all the way through 2017. That's a total of $207 during the next five years, if you don't have a calculator handy.

http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/2012-05-05/news/os-progress-energy-rates-beth-kassab-050612-20120505_1_nuclear-plants-nuclear-reactors-progress-energy

Actually, the price went up since.
12:09 PM on 05/16/2012
OMG!! Then why are they still running?

TVA: Browns Ferry not yet ready for re-inspection

TVA says its Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant, which has been under a federal safety warning for a year, isn't yet ready for an inspection.

According to the Chattanooga Times Free Press (http://bit.ly/JIBZEU ), the utility's chief nuclear officer, Preston Swafford, told the Nuclear Regulatory Commission on Tuesday that TVA won't invite inspectors until the agency is confident the plant is ready to pass inspection. Swafford said he didn't know when that would be.

http://www.wtvm.com/story/18434465/tva-browns-ferry-not-yet-ready-for-re-inspection
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
CaptD
Freedom From Nuclear Fascism...
05:59 PM on 05/16/2012
This is nuclear Industry BS at it's worst...

Thanks Safety Regulators!
12:03 PM on 05/16/2012
New Report Reveals Scale of Steam Generator Failures at Nuclear Plant

...........•Reducing power does not provide a remedy for the underlying structural problems that are creating the vibration that has damaged and will continue to damage the tubes deep inside the San Onofre steam generators
•Reducing power will not change the pressure inside or outside the tubes—previously damaged tubes will continue to vibrate damaging surrounding tubes and tube supports and worsening the existing damage
•Lower power might create a resonate frequency at which vibration might increase without notice causing further damage
•Historical evidence at other reactors has shown that operating at lower power has not been an effective solution
http://ecowatch.org/2012/new-report-reveals-scale-of-steam-generator-failures-at-nuclear-plant/
11:12 AM on 05/16/2012
Fukushima nuclear disaster: who profits and who pays?
http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/news/Blogs/makingwaves/fukushima-who-profits-who-pays/blog/40463/

Gets really good about half-way through.
outnow
Ban the bomb
12:34 PM on 05/16/2012
Profits were privatized and the losses were and are being socialized. Thank goodness for caps on liability and immunities from damages! The people have broad shoulders for uncompensated suffering. lol!
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
CaptD
Freedom From Nuclear Fascism...
06:03 PM on 05/16/2012
Faved, already fanned!
snip
The nationalisation of TEPCO, together with a legal practice called “channelling of liability” in which all liability related to the Fukushima nuclear disaster has to be channelled to TEPCO, means Japanese taxpayers and ratepayers will foot most of the bill.

An infuriating aspect of this story is that in a recent presentation by General Electric (GE)about its “success” over the past 50 years, there was not a word about the Fukushima disaster and nothing approaching an apology.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
WeMustDoBetter09
09:27 AM on 05/16/2012
Look at this! Preparation for the Trial of Humanity!
It is a privilege to be able to lend personal support to the Fukushima Evacuate Children Lawsuit. There is no better measure of the moral health of a society than how it treats the most vulnerable people within it, and none or more vulnerable, or more precious, than children who are the victims of unconscionable actions. For Japan, and for all of us, this is a test that we must not fail. (Noam Chomsky 12 Jan. 2012)
http://fukushima-evacuation-e.blogspot.com/2012/04/court-documents-and-statements-etc.html?spref=tw
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
WeMustDoBetter09
08:09 AM on 05/16/2012
New Main
Nuclear Power Regulators Scale Back Emergency Readiness Efforts http://huff.to/L5Er69 via @HuffingtonPost
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
CaptD
Freedom From Nuclear Fascism...
10:24 AM on 05/16/2012
I'm still on:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/15/san-onofre-power-plant-study_n_1518000.html

So many Nuclear Blogs, so little time
12:45 PM on 05/16/2012
Repost. Too funny not to bring to a live thread.

here: http://theenergycollective.com/rodadams/53997/stop-worry
ing-about-spent-fuel-pool-fires-zirconium-tubes-do-not-burn"

Nope can't happen ROFLMAO,
wonder if he is still drawing SMR plans with crayons?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
WeMustDoBetter09
08:06 AM on 05/16/2012
Overnight News

Japan Gov’t Papers After 3/11: Spent Fuel Pool No. 4 at boiling point — It is empty — Heat caused fire

Kyoto Professor: 100+ years of aftershocks “relatively close” to Fukushima Daiichi — “May also affect volcanic activity in the area”

@ http://enenews.com/
06:32 AM on 05/16/2012
76% of Americans Want Clean Energy Instead of Nuclear, Natural Gas, & Coal


Yet another recent poll showed that Americans really support clean energy, across political affiliations (though, there’s clearly more support on the left).

The ORC International survey, conducted for the nonprofit and nonpartisan Civil Society Institute (CSI), found that 76% of Americans (58% of Republicans, 83% of Independents, and 88% of Democrats) want to see ”a reduction in our reliance on nuclear power, natural gas and coal, and instead, launch a national initiative to boost renewable energy and energy efficiency.” (And who knows what the remaining 24% are smoking?)

Not only that, the public has clearly picked up on the fact that corrupt politics is a key reason we don’t have more of that. 82% of Americans (69% of Republicans, 84% of Independents, and 95% of Democrats) agree with this statement: “The time is now for a new, grassroots-driven politics to realize a renewable energy future. Congress is debating large public investments in energy and we need to take action to ensure that our taxpayer dollars support renewable energy– one that protects public health, promotes energy independence and the economic well being of all Americans.”
http://cleantechnica.com/2012/05/15/76-of-americans-want-clean-energy-instead-of-nuclear-natural-gas-coal/
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
WeMustDoBetter09
08:02 AM on 05/16/2012
That's great news!! Whooohee!!
09:32 AM on 05/16/2012
An orc survey, eh? Figures they would dishonestly insinuate that nuclear is not clean.
06:11 AM on 05/16/2012
Bass-ackwards???


AP IMPACT: Evacs and drills pared near nuke plants

Without fanfare, the nation's nuclear power regulators have overhauled community emergency planning for the first time in more than three decades, requiring fewer exercises for major accidents and recommending that fewer people be evacuated right away.

The revamp, the first since the program began after Three Mile Island in 1979, also eliminates a requirement that local responders always practice for a release of radiation.

At least four years in the works, the changes appear to clash with more recent lessons of last year's reactor crisis in Japan.

Under the new rules, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which run the program together, have added one new exercise: More than a decade after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, state and community police will now take part in exercises that prepare for a possible assault on their local plant.

Still, some emergency officials say this new exercise doesn't go far enough.


And some view as downright bizarre the idea that communities will now periodically run emergency scenarios without practicing for any significant release of radiation.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/05/16/ap-impact-evacs-and-drills-pared-near-nuke-plants/#ixzz1v1gGjvVo
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
CaptD
Freedom From Nuclear Fascism...
10:29 AM on 05/16/2012
This is just more FOX "PROFITGANDA" to try and help "sell" nuclear to the masses!
Case in point, Near SORE (San Onofre Reactor Emergency) they don't even have buses to EVAC school children from the nearby elementary school... 

That is just a quick sample...