Obama Counter-Programs The RNC, And Hurricanes Sarah And Gustav

Former McCain and Schwarzenegger chief strategist Mike Murphy and former Reagan chief speechwriter Peggy Noonan say what they really think about the Palin Pick.

What a bizarre week in presidential politics for Barack Obama to mount a counter-programming effort. He has the Republican National Convention and Hurricanes Gustav and Sarah. And it's going pretty well for him. Not that he has all that much to do with it.

Hurricane Gustav disrupted the flow of the Republican national convention. Hurricane Sarah distracted from the substance of the convention, though she has emerged as the new star of the right.

We may never know everything that Team Obama would have done to counter-program the RNC, absent the twin hurricanes. There's the TV spot for battleground states proclaiming that John McCain still means "no change," even with the rookie Alaska governor, whose principal claim to fame before 2007 is her mayoralty of a town of 6700, on the ticket.

Barack Obama's TV ad saying that the new McCain/Palin ticket means "No change" from eight years of Bush and Cheney.

There are the state-specific ads touting Joe Biden as a true son of Pennsylvania, and Obama as the champion of Michigan.

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Joe Biden says he is a son of "Scranton," a pivot point in the fight for Pennsylvania.

There's the radio ad for battleground states making it clear that Obama and Biden are pro-choice, and McCain and Palin, like the hardline Republican platform, are against abortion in all circumstances.

Barack Obama, in this new ad for battleground Michigan, says he is the only candidate on the side of the average American.

Obama set up a war room in St. Paul to counter the Republican spin machine. Would it have tried to match the new Steve Schmidt-inspired operation blow-for-blow?

That has certainly not been the theory of the Obama campaign.

A number of commentators on the hard right have cited McCain's status as a former fighter pilot -- actually, he flew the A-4, not the F-4, so he was a fighter-bomber attack pilot and not a fighter pilot -- to account for the swift and combative nature of his campaign. They've cited the OODA loop, military jargon for Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action. That's a false view.

McCain's campaign was fairly slow until Schmidt, who ran the Bush/Cheney war room in 2004, took over. Schmidt, as Obama campaign manager David Plouffe, who called the McCain campaign "a war room masquerading as a presidential campaign," says, comes out of the war room mentality.

But with the OODA loop, which is actually known as the Boyd Cycle, he brings something much more. OODA standing for Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action.

I introduced Schmidt, in 2006, to the Boyd Cycle. To the consternation of Schmidt's juniors in the Arnold Schwarzenegger re-election campaign, as Schmidt absorbed the very lengthy paper by retired Air Force Colonel John Boyd entitled "Patterns of Conflict" and made its principles a matter of required understanding in the Schwarzenegger campaign.

What Boyd, whose thinking played a major role in informing 1980s military reformers Gary Hart and Newt Gingrich, did is give a whole new take on the theory of conflict. For electoral politics, it means that you observe what your opponent is doing, orient yourself to it, decide what is the best course of action to defeat it, and then take that action.

Victory, as Colonel Boyd pointed out, after first noticing the pattern in studying footage of Korean War aerial dogfights, generally goes to the party which first understands what the enemy is doing and responds most swiftly and decisively. This, as Boyd pointed out in his long paper, is true in aerial dog fights and in lengthy wars involving multiple dimensions of conflict, throughout history.

Schmidt adapted this approach first in dealing with Schwarzenegger's hapless Democratic 2006 gubernatorial opponent, Phil Angelides. More recently, he used the approach to deconstruct Obama's greatest strength and turn it into a weakness, in the form of the "celebrity" ads which countered Obama's triumphant tour of the Middle East and Western Europe.

Of course, the Boyd Cycle can be used against McCain, as well. As I have pointed out, without previously referring to the Boyd Cycle per se.

The Obama campaign has employed an entirely different theory of conflict. Unlike Team McCain, they don't try to win every angle and turn of the media cycle. And they seldom get inside what their opponents are doing.

They might have started doing that this week. But we may never know, as Hurricanes Gustav and Sarah made it impossible to do so while still looking good for the public.

Bill O'Reilly started working on booking Barack Obama in January, as you see in this video of his fractious encounter with Obama's advance staff and Secret Service detail.

One thing that Obama is doing against the grain, for a change, is appearing on the Fox News program "The O'Reilly Factor" on Thursday night, the same night that John McCain gives his acceptance speech at the Republican national convention.

Here we see Bill O'Reilly trying to book that program, last January in New Hampshire. And, as O'Reilly shouts away, running into serious difficulty with Obama's advance staff and the Secret Service.

Here is the script to Obama's radio ad, which you can listen to here, now running in most of the battleground states, addressing the threat posed by the McCain/Palin ticket to abortion rights.

OBAMA: I'm Barack Obama, candidate for president, and I approved this message.

VAL BARON: As a nurse practitioner with Planned Parenthood, I know abortion is one of most difficult decisions a woman will ever make. I'm Val Baron. Let me tell you - if Roe v Wade is overturned, the lives and health of women will be put at risk. That's why this election is so important. John McCain's out of touch with women today. McCain wants to take away our right to choose. That's what women need to understand. That's how high the stakes are.

ANNCR: As president, John McCain will make abortion illegal. McCain says quote, "I do not support Roe v. Wade. It should be overturned." And listen to McCain's answer on Meet the Press:

RUSSERT: "A constitutional amendment to ban all abortions. You're for that?"

McCAIN: "Yes, sir."

VAL BARON: We can't let John McCain take away our right to choose. We can't let him take us back.

ANNCR: Paid for by Obama for America.

Comments

[CaptainStormfield]

Okay, so isn't it time to shoot back? Make Mccain mad. He cant handle it. Show an add with a senior citizen desperately needing money, standing in front of a savings and loan with a "Closed" sign. Keating 5 scandal. The Holy Joes don't like Mccain. Find some way to peel them off. Too bad dumping your crippled first wife has no affect on Republicans. Must be a secret initiation rite.

I'm sure Palin is wrapped pretty tight too in the temper department. She seems used to getting her own way, medium sized fish in a small pond. What would rattle her cage? If they want to make this about culture, values and personality you have to prove that the person has no culture, lousy values and the personality of a hungry gator.

[BottomLine2008]

So Sarah Palin gets a bunch of right-wingers all excited. She's not all that.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Well, there's been a lot of negative coverage of McCain for the Palin selection.

[DarthVector]

all boyd papers at:

http://www.d-n-i.net/dni/john-r-boyd/

the particular one mentioned in this article is at:

http://www.d-n-i.net/boyd/pdf/poc.pdf

[BottomLine2008]

Wow. This is great. Thanks!

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Thanks for posting those Boyd links.

[TRIATHLON]

(DIPNN) SILENT AS GAS IS THROW ON FIRE!

As United States naval ships were supplying Georgians with weapons under humanitarian aid coverage and with another ($1B) One Billion in military aid being sent to the former Soviet Republic of Georgia, by the American Military Industrial Complex, after the Soviet Russian envoy to (NATO), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization on August 27th, stated that U.S. assistance to Georgia would be a "declaration of war";

But, the (DIPN) Democratic Imperial Presidential Nominee to the (MIC) Military Industrial Complex remains silent as the (IVP) Imperial Vice President throws gas on the fire in the former Soviet Republic of Georgia.

Unnamed CIA intelligence operatives are saying that in response, the Israelis reportedly have stopped providing weapons to Georgia, and have sent representatives to Moscow to try to persuade Russia not to sell the missiles to Iran.

Failing that the Dutch newspaper De Telegraaf reports that a report by Dutch military intelligence has reported that the (IDF) Israeli Defense Force and Mossad had suspended an operation aimed at sabotaging Iran's weapons industry based on their expectation of a combined United States and Israeli attack in the coming weeks, between September 22nd and October 7th, the best date being during the Autumnal Equinox of September 22nd.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Ah.

[BottomLine2008]

Soviet Russia?

[gaebolgaes]

is it just me? have i missed something? is sarah palin..that simple minded unaccomplished "soccer mom" actually considered a legitimate candidate for the vice presidency of the united states. even with the bar having been set so low that spiro agnew.dan quayle and dick cheney held the job..it just does not seem plausible.i think its just a simple matter of the racist faction of the american electorate needing a "figurehead" to rally around.is she racist enough to satisfy the needs of that segment of the population that the GOP almost always needs to stoke up in order to get close enough to steal elections? maybe..but for the sake of this nation..lets hope not.much is being made about her being a "working mom". the problem is..thats all she is. a mother that works.sadly..any white woman able to stand up and brag about being a "soccer mom" as opposed to "basketball" or "football mom" meaning probably black mothers.. would have fulfilled the needs of john mccain and the racists. john mccain looked at obama and michelle two brilliant accomplished ..well qualified people.. when they stood up in front of 85,000 screaming supporters in a football stadium..realized that he was toast...panicked..and went straight to the "southern strategy" only this time he had to go to the far northern state of alaska to invoke that perrenial GOP "golden ticket".

[BottomLine2008]

Do you think she's simple-minded? Or just ignorant and wrong?

[bogues]

John McCain and Sarah Palin are bragging about the fact that her 17 year old daughter is going to have the baby that she conceived out of wed-lock and they keep talking about it being their choice to do so. Why on earth do these people think they have the right to take away someone elses right to choose what would be best for their life. When Palin says that the media are being unfair, I just have to ask her why she thinks she can decide for all of us and then tell us that we do not have the right to talk about her choice. The religious right has taken control of the Republican Party and they are going to dictate to all of America what we can and cannot do according to their belief system. That is not America and it is not the Party of Lincoln!

[BottomLine2008]

She thinks the media is unfair because they are calling her on her phoniness.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Palin is extremely conservative on abortion and other social issues, as well as scientific issues.

She didn't mention any of that last night.

[pragmatics101]

Kinda hardfor the Republicans to reach across the aisle when they're spending all their time slandering the Demoncrats vs. addressing the actual issues. How about some substance instead of insults? Oh, I'm sorry, they don't have any, do they...

Lest we forget, the Democrats have only "controlled" Congress since Jan 2007. This "corrupt Washington" of which the McCain camp speaks is a product of Republican doing. Wasn't it the Republicans that, when in control of the Congress, had more earmarks and give-aways than any other Congress before them? So, in essence, they RNC is now claiming to come in and dismantle the corruption they created.

I think the DNC is being far less ambitious here than they should. Instead of calling for the White House, Obama should be also starting to focus on getting the Congress he needs to actually accomplish what he wants: citizens that are less interested in villifying their oponents than in working with them to do the People's work.

[BottomLine2008]

Is Obama really going on "The O'Reilly Factor" tonight?!

[bogues]

Yes, and he has to whether we like it or not, Fox does have a very large viewing audience and Fox has been telling lies on Obama for too long. He must go there and set the record straight as much as he can. I will be praying for God to be with him and I know he will be alright. I am choosing to believe it will be a positive thing in the end.

[BottomLine2008]

I'm glad Obama is going on O'Reilly.

It should be fun to watch!

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

It's good theater.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

He is indeed.

[BottomLine2008]

That's going to be wild.

[Mogamboguru]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Electoral votes:

O-ba-ma 307 vs- M-cC-ain 230

In the electoral vote, O-ba-ma leads by 67 votes, i.e. he's got 29 percent MORE electoral votes than M-cC-ain has.

So much for the alledged dead heat in the national polls.

Enjoy and relax.

[BottomLine2008]

Who said it was a dead heat? Obama's ahead.

[djelimon]

Good news, but don't relax

[roshni]

Can't relax yet. A bunch of idiots stuck me with 8 years of Bush/Cheney and I can't trust people yet.

[BottomLine2008]

Actually, Obama has ZERO electoral votes.

The election is 2 months from now.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

There's many a slip twixt the cup and the lip.

[Davwbaird]

Obama came out strong on the children issue. Even repugs were mentioning it which made them look really bad.

[BottomLine2008]

They have to run against the media now. That doesn't work.

[uscitizen]

Speaking of hurricanes, wasn't someone from Focus on the Family suggesting that people pray for bad weather during the Democratic Convention? Kind of a sign of God's displeasure with the lefties? Then a hurricane arrives during the Republican Convention. Oh, the irony. I don't suppose Focus on the Family will interpret that as God's voice, however :)!

[the66lion]

LOL! I'm glad I'm not the only one who noticed that! Even more incredible -- not only did God grant GORGEOUS weather for the open-air DNC, but the inclimate weather that disturbed the in-door RNC . . . WASN'T EVEN IN MINNESOTA where the RNC was held!!! How's that for tempting God and beckoning Him for evil purposes!!

[BottomLine2008]

They have a very selective view of "God's Will." lol

[XME]

I live in SW Virginia, and ads from both campaigns have been running constantly. They've also been running the ad from some group trying to tie Obama to Ayers.

Every day I grow a little more disgusted with how dirty politics can be, and after seeing Palin speak tonight, the only thing she proved to me is that, when it comes to dirty politics, she's most definitely more of the same!

[BottomLine2008]

Palin's a right-wing warrior.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

That's very interesting. What sort of ad are you seeing and hearing?

[XME]

McCain's camp has been running one claiming Obama is not change, that he picked a Washington insider for his VP, etc. Previously they were running one claiming Obama was "dangerously unprepared to lead".

Obama has been running one showing McCain bragging about voting with Bush over 90% of the time, showing pictures of them together (the hug, etc.)

On the radio, Obama just started running one about Roe v Wade, that McCain wants to overturn it, and that it would be dangerous to do that.

We also get all of the MoveOn.org ads, and they've been playing the ad from the American Issues Project that tries to tie Obama to Ayers, talking about bombing the Pentagon, that they are "friends", etc.

This is very "redneck" country, so there are a lot of people here who are either conservative, or simply convinced that Obama is a "Muslim plant" who wants to take over America and enforce Islamic values on us! Fortunately I live in a larger town, so I'm also finding that we do have more "open-minded" people here who do support Obama than in the very small town I used to live in. I've signed up to voluteer with getting more people registered to vote because this is going to be a fight all the way to November.

[BottomLine2008]

I love the Boyd Cycle theory. Where can I read the Patterns of Conflict paper.?

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Well, John Boyd's paper is old and hundreds of pages long. I don't know that it's online but I will check.

[BottomLine2008]

I would love to read it.

[DarthVector]

all boyd papers at:

http://www.d-n-i.net/dni/john-r-boyd/

this particular one:

http://www.d-n-i.net/boyd/pdf/poc.pdf

[CaptainStormfield]

http://www.d-n-i.net/dni/2008/09/01/is-mccain-inside-obamas-ooda-loop/
http://www.d-n-i.net/dni/john-r-boyd/

That is all sort of disturbing. Its a powerful concept.

[BottomLine2008]

Thanks!

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

The Boyd Cycle is a very powerful theory. I was discussing it again this morning with Gary Hart, and will have more to say.

[CaptainStormfield]

I tried to post a link to Boyds paper at the Defense and the National Interest website.
Looks like Huff scrapped it. I never understand what they block and why?

Anyway just search for that and you'll get there. Plenty of other interesting
folks on that site. One of the lead articles is about the Mccain
campaign using Boyds theory. Thanks for writing about that Mr. Bradley.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

I approved your posts on the Boyd links.

[CaptainStormfield]

A great discussion going on over there at DNI about the campaign too.

[BottomLine2008]

The radio ad sounds really good.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

It''s a good ad.

[BottomLine2008]

Which states is it playing in?

[BottomLine2008]

Great ad for Michigan by Obama. He will sweep the state now.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Perhaps.

[BottomLine2008]

Obama will win Michigan. They're not going to vote for two right-wingers who don't know anything about the economy.

[tomjones44]

I still wonder about the general area of Grand Rapids. they're pretty rabbid over there

[BottomLine2008]

I like the Biden ad for Pennsylvania. He's going to be a a great VP.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Obama/Biden should win Pennsylvania.

[BottomLine2008]

Palin helps with people in Pennsylvania who would never vote for a black man.