What's President Barack Obama up to in the big federal budget deficit/debt ceiling debate? After months of letting Vice President Joe Biden carry the ball, Obama has placed himself center stage in the midst of controversy, even as agreement seems to get farther away.
What is he really after? To solve the multi-faceted problem? Well, sure, that would be nice. But what he is really after is what all first-term presidents are after. A second term.
Obama, in my opinion, is engaged in what former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger called political "kabuki." A stylized dramatic dance that draws attention while obscuring true purpose.
And what is his true purpose? To appeal to moderates by occupying the center and pushing the Republicans to the starboard side fringe.
Meanwhile, Obama is flipping out a lot of liberals and other folks on the left.
But why worry?
Obama probably realizes that he is free to posture in favor of big deficit reductions, and placing major entitlement cuts on the table, because the Republicans will never go for it, even though they say those are top priorities. Why won't they? Because they, thanks to their ideology, and their extraordinarily insistent hyper-partisan base, can't countenance the accompanying loophole closures and tax hikes for the rich. Even though the cuts in Obama's proposal dwarf the revenues. And even though the tax hikes would not be "recovery killers" occurring this year or next year.
House Speaker John Boehner, whose golf summit with Obama a few weeks ago provoked much comment, announced over the weekend that the big global deal he and Obama and others have been working on won't fly because it includes substantial tax hikes. So he is looking at a smaller, more short-term deal.
But Obama says he isn't. He wants the big deal. He says. What he especially wants is for fickle moderates and some independent voters, who say they want budget cuts and economic stimulus, to view him as their champion and the Republican right -- which calls the shots in the GOP in a way that the Democratic left does not in their party -- as their anathema.
Discussions continue. But in reality, the federal budget deficit has always been a less pressing issue than a state budget deficit -- with conservatives blithely pursuing unfunded wars and tax cuts and liberals expanding social programs -- because the feds are allowed to print money and run deficits and the states are not.
When did the Republicans start caring about the federal budget deficit and the debt ceiling? That's easy. January 20th, 2009.
But what really needs to get done soon? A deficit deal which sees big cuts to entitlement programs that Democrats can otherwise use next year to bludgeon Republicans wedded to Congressman Paul Ryan's ballyhooed budget? A deficit deal which sees tax hikes to disappoint the far right Republican base? A combination of the two?
Or raising the debt ceiling to avert an end to the sputtering global economic recovery?
With the national elections ramping up, clearly the latter.
If Obama succeeds in his positioning, he's looking at some good tidings. The leading Republican presidential candidates are locked in to the far right position on fiscal policy. But, despite their fealty to the no-tax mantra, they are, ironically, not raising all that much money.
Putative Republican presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney raised just over $18 million in the second quarter. This is less than the $20 million recently expected for him, and less than half of the $40 to $50 million set early on as a goal by campaign fundraisers.
It is also less than the $20 million-plus that Romney raised during the same period in the 2008 campaign, when he was not the supposed frontrunner.
The total does not, however include some $12 million raised in unlimited amounts by a pro-Romney "SuperPAC" which cannot coordinate its activities with Romney's campaign. SuperPACs, an outgrowth of the infamous Citizens United decision, are like independent expenditure committees in California state elections.
Michele Bachmann, who just entered the race recently, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Jon Huntsman, who also just entered the race recently, all appear to have raised in the $4 to $5 million range. This is a disappointment for Pawlenty, who has not impressed and was supposed to be a major contender.
Bachmann may have transferred funds from her congressional campaign account and the just announced Huntsman has injected some of his own funds, though how much remains unknown.
It would be amusing to attribute the Republicans' problems to the shaky state of the economy of late, but not accurate. An extensive recent survey from Northeastern University reveals that this is an historically low-quality economic recovery, one in which the fruits of a recovering economy have been unevenly shared. Far more has gone to corporate profit and wealthy individuals than to the middle and lower-income Americans.
But that's not so.
In contrast, Obama is said by insiders to have raised more than all the Republican candidates combined.
So if he can appeal to the center without hurting his base, he's in good shape. Well, as good a shape as any president beset by massive geopolitical crises (one or two of them of his own making) and a sputtering recovery since the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression can be, that is.
You can check things during the day on my site, New West Notes ... www.newwestnotes.com.
William Bradley Huffington Post Archive
Jagadeesh Gokhale: Even If He Hadn't Said So, We'd Know the President Is Bluffing
Michael Brenner: Debt Roulette
Paul Tullis: What's the Real Relationship Between Taxes and Jobs?
 |
 |
|
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Electoral Votes (270 to win) |
332 | 206 |
| Obama | Romney | |
|---|---|---|
| Total | 65,899,660 | 60,932,152 |
| Percent | 51.1% | 47.2% |
| Democrats* | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Senate | 53 | 47 |
| Seats gained or lost | +2 | -2 |
| New Total | 55 | 45 |
| Democrats | Republicans | |
|---|---|---|
| Seats won | 201 | 234 |
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/william-bradley/nasa-space-shuttle_b_912783.html
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/271892/mccain-debt-limit-robert-costa?page=1
Could this be because those that run the economy, create jobs, and push for growth in GDP seem to benefit from their actions and those that depend on the govt are just getting disappointed with their entitlements?
Once we decide what is more important for our country, jobs or handouts, we can them make the decisions that need to be made. So far, with a vast majority of polls, it is the economy and jobs and not excessive spending.
>>> Could this be because those that run the economy, create jobs, and push for growth in GDP seem to benefit from their actions and those that depend on the govt are just getting disappointed with their entitlements?
Yes. There literally $trillions of dollars waiting to be spent on jobs, growth projects, and capital expenditures. But, since companies need several years of clear forecasts to spend such money, they can't get any idea which way the US govt is going.
Will it go for growth and jobs? Will go for spending projects and infrastructure? Will it cut back on entitlements? Will it increase taxes? Without any clear picture, no company is willing to stick their necks out and potentially waste $billions on a guess.
Once we get some clear leadership, we can move forward and get back to recovery. Right now, we don't have it.
Good article, Mr. Bradley.
This cut will save the people of the US $450 - 500 Billion in 10 years. Obama would never stand up to the unions much like the Gov of CA. why would he, he needs the votes in exchange for some "benefits". Isn't that how it worked in Chicago?
Remember, if we do nothing (according to Obama) we will have unemployment nearing 8%. Cut what hasn't even been spent ad we save an immediate $100B. Obama thinks we can still spend into recovery after proving we can't.
The only reason they had one for the brief amount of time they did is that they followed Obama's advice to ignore the netroots and not kick Joe Lieberman (who I personally can't stand) out of the caucus.
If they want to reach a deal, they need to make sacrifices like cutting on social programs and check one by one the people that's abusing the wellfare program 'cause there are a lot of people in the wellfare office who leave in luxury vehicles. They also need to fix the "tax loopholes" to get more revenue from people who enjoys major luxuries like owning a personal jet. However, most of these people are politics or help politicians, so beats me.
http://www.funnyantiobama.com/funny-obama-jokes.html
The real dynamics of the Democratic Party made that nothing more than a pipe dream. Obama has incredible support levels in the African American community and is backed by a massive majority of liberal voters. In addition, the real effect of primary challenges against sitting presidents, on those infrequent occasions on which they amount to anything, is to help the other party win the White House.
Will the liberals call his $1B in "donations" a waste?
I bet not.
Maybe a quick glance at some polling numbers might help you in your task of being out of the loop.
Obama is The Party of One. He will not, to date, pay the slightest allegiance to his base, and seems intent to allow Democrats who hail from the Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party to fight for their own seats and purposes in Congress, as he has already made proposals during this debt ceiling dust-up, perhaps as a bargaining strategy, perhaps in earnest, that would strip away income from seniors and the infirm or both during a recession-- which strips Democrats of an issue with which to run against Republicans in 2012, while it may just endear the president to the independents.
Obama has gotten enacted the biggest liberal agenda since the 1960s!!
>>> He will not, to date, pay the slightest allegiance to his base, and seems intent to allow Democrats who hail from the Democratic Wing of the Democratic
Obamacare raising the price of healthcare to America while lowering the quality
Raising the debt to over $14Trillion
Raising the deficit to over $1.5Trillion
Raising the unemployment to over 9%
Raising the average weekly new unemployment filings to over 400K
So, is he going to run on his record?
>He will not, to date, pay the slightest allegiance to his base
He sure wasn't much of a kingmaker in California after getting his pal Meg Whitman to run for Governor and waste $180 million!!
>>> Putative Republican presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney raised just over $18 million in the second quarter. This is less than the $20 million recently expected for him, and less than half of the $40 to $50 million set early on as a goal by campaign fundraisers.
It is also less than the $20 million-plus that Romney raised during the same period in the 2008 campaign, when he was not the supposed frontrunner.
Do you think Obama is going to run on his record? Economy? Jobs? Looks? The (D) next to his name?
Any guesses?
Since their policies are even more extreme than Bush and Dick Cheney's were!!!
Plus, he got Osama bin Laden.
You'd think, after years to prepare and so much economic and political upset, plus the re-galvanized backbone provided them by the Tea Hatters, that the Republicans would have found a formidable candidate to run against Obama. So far, no good. And nope the potential candidacy of Good Hair Perry won't change their prospects for victory either.
And last time Obama ran, he trounced his adversary nowhere more obviously than the Electoral College. Expect more of the same.
>>> Obama, in my opinion, is engaged in what former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger called political "kabuki." A stylized dramatic dance that draws attention while obscuring true purpose.
A lot of folks still haven't figured that one out ...
Much needed? It saved jobs at $250K each. If that is your idea of much needed, you must be making a joke.
Maybe we should put those that have a little more experuience than a community organizer surrounded wth 100s of "advisors" into such an important office.
He can't even spell out a plan. All he has currently is cliches. Much like HuffPo bloggers.
>>> House Speaker John Boehner, whose golf summit with Obama a few weeks ago provoked much comment, announced over the weekend that the big global deal he and Obama and others have been working on won't fly because it includes substantial tax hikes. So he is looking at a smaller, more short-term deal.
Explain.