Obama Needs Bill Clinton

Bill Clinton wows the Democratic National Convention last night in Denver.

No big-time Democrat got more sideways with the rise of Barack Obama than the big dog himself, Bill Clinton. Wouldn't it be ironic if it turned out that the former president needs to play a very crucial role in Obama's elevation to the office he once held?

I think that, if Obama is to win, Clinton does need to play that very crucial role, and he can play that very crucial role. From what I know of Clinton's schedule, he will be available, assuming that he and the Obama campaign can continue bridging what has been a very large gap. And from what I know of John McCain's strategy, Bill Clinton can be an absolute difference maker in this election. He certainly gave a rousing speech for Obama last night in Denver.

Now, I am not historically a big Bill Clinton fan. While I've found him likable and smart for a couple of decades, I worked against him when he ran for president in 1992. After he became president, I wrote a number of critical columns and articles about him and his administration. I did come to admire the many innovative global good works of his post-presidency. But after seeing in early 2007 that Obama was the emerging figure in the presidential race, Clintonian tactics began to grate.

I think Bill Clinton played the key role in saving Hillary Clinton's campaign after her big loss in Iowa. He gave her good advice, raised big doubts about Obama, and played the key role in reversing Obama's lead amongst blue collar voters in New Hampshire. Obama skidded to a stunning loss.

Bill Clinton played the key role in holding off Obama in the next contest, Nevada. With trademark chutzpah, he claimed that it was Obama's campaign that was intimidating voters, going so far as to stride into a big caucus on the Las Vegas Strip, intimidating voters in the process, to press his claim that Obama's campaign was intimidating voters.

Bill Clinton gets in trouble in South Carolina last January.

Things went south, literally and figuratively, with the next contest in South Carolina, where to many he crossed the line "playing the race card" by pejoratively comparing Obama's huge primary win, with a record turnout, to Jesse Jackson's '80s wins in small turnout caucuses. The controversy went on from there, with the former president making a number of controversial statements, usually in a seeming fit of pique.

It raised the question of whether he would have won in the first place in 1992 had the Internet -- with swift insurgent fundraising, ready research and communication, and, of course, YouTube -- existed back then for folks outside research universities and the Pentagon.

Some associates attributed his troubles to his post-presidential lifestyle, a glittering affair in which he is frequently feted by the super-rich and practically never told he is wrong. He was likened to a once great athlete grown older and slower and softer.

And yet, despite the melodrama that developed around him -- some of it, as he claimed, due to the news media's gotcha tactics of having "embed" stalkers constantly following him around, pointing their little electronic gizmos at him to catch that embarrassing snippet of video or audio footage -- he was still a very effective campaigner. He spent the final two days of the Super Tuesday campaign locking down the California primary, where Obama had enjoyed a brief surge, and was key in Hillary's very narrow win in New Mexico.

By the time the Ohio and Texas primaries rolled around in March, Hillary Clinton was on the ropes. But Bill Clinton came through for her. "Relegated," as the press had it, to "second and third tier markets," i.e., those outside the giant metro areas with the expense account hotels and restaurants, Bill Clinton was a sensation campaigning for his wife.

I've examined those results from Ohio and Texas, and Bill Clinton was a huge factor in Hillary's big win in Ohio. As for Texas, I think Obama would have won the primary there but for Clinton's efforts in the Big Out There outside the Dallas and Houston media markets. As it was, Obama very narrowly lost the primary, while rolling up a huge win in the million-plus turnout caucuses that night.

Once again, Bill Clinton came through, buttressing his wife's campaign when the chips were down, showing his campaign prowess when it was absolutely needed for her candidacy to continue. He did just as well for her in other key states, like Pennsylvania, where Hillary's 9-point victory was just enough to keep her campaign going.

Which gets us to why Obama needs Bill Clinton campaigning for him.

I'm told by Clinton associates that the former president does not have any foreign travel planned between now and the November election. And that he is ready to campaign hard for Barack Obama.

I know that Team McCain is targeting several states in its bid to pull off what now looks like a far less unlikely upset than it should be. These states coincide with the states in which we know that Bill Clinton can be a highly effective campaigner.

Among the principal McCain targets are Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. All economically depressed states that a Democrat should win in this 80% wrong track environment. All states in which Obama is underperforming the Democratic brand.

McCain has campaigned in these states more than Obama. His campaign thought it might have cracked Pennsylvania before now. It hasn't, as Obama leads there, but his lead is in some peril. With his ability to campaign on economic distress and connect with white working class voters, Bill Clinton can lock down the Keystone State for Obama.

He can also help Obama enormously in Michigan, a state that is far closer than it should be, where Obama did not campaign in the primary due to the crazy primary scheduling snafu, and Ohio, which is very close.

He's also a big help with rural voters in Missouri, which Obama won in the primary solely on the strength of an urban vote, and which McCain is targeting. He can help Obama win Virginia, which McCain badly wants to retain, and keep North Carolina, where McCain doesn't want to have to campaign, in play.

And Bill Clinton is a big help in the Mountain West -- the region John McCain hails from -- the new battleground region of the election, as we saw in his own elections as president, and in the narrow Hillary wins in Nevada and New Mexico.

While Bill Clinton was wowing the Democratic national convention last night in Denver, John McCain was in northern Arizona, finalizing the plans for the roll-out of of his vice presidential selection on Friday. Plans which point up Clinton's importance to the Obama campaign.

McCain will introduce his running mate on Friday at a rally in Dayton, Ohio. Then the new twosome will tour Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Missouri. All states where Clinton can be a difference maker for Obama.

Yesterday, the Clintons met with 300 of their top fundraisers at Denver's historic Brown Palace Hotel. Lots of hugs and sentiment. And urgings to support Barack Obama.

That financial support hasn't been fast in coming to date. Even slower has been Obama Nation's support for the retirement of Hillary's huge debt.

This was a tough Democratic primary fight, so lingering bad feelings are natural. The irony is that Obama, given Bill Clinton's historic affinity for the African-American community, is someone Clinton would likely have endorsed and helped. Had Hillary not been running herself.

We'll see if Barack Obama and Bill Clinton can get past their differences and win this presidency.

Comments

[BottomLine2008]

This is even truer than it was when you wrote it.

[Leda]

Yeah, wasn't it Obama who said that Ronald Reagan was such an innovative president? & that he was really much more memorable than Bill Clinton. Bill had to govern during a lock stock & barrel republican majority.
GIve the guy a break. I'd say the Obama campaign did plenty of whining about being mistreated by the Clintons. Obama's speech- Prosaic. Okay but not marvelous.
All the fanatics that drank the Kool-Aid-- have forced this upon us. Obama is a gamble at such a risky & crucial time.
Just as Jacob W from Slate responded-- when all the bobble heads were whining about how Bill Clinton needed to mend relationships with afro-americans (due to some tough words (it is called campaigning people)--- " That isn't the point-- Obama has a problem with white voters-- & that is what needs to be improved. " Like right about now brother. Or this country is a goner!

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Oh, come on. Obama gave a fabulous speech. All this residual pissing and moaning from both sides of the primary divide is non-serious.

[BottomLine2008]

Obama needs Bill Clinton. Bill Clinton needs Obama.

[billw8017]

It is not possible to win without friends. They can praise you in ways you cannot dare to praise yourself. They can condemn your opponents and rally the home crew while you remain palatable to the greatest number.

Does Obama need Clinton? Clinton is the model of a modern American President, a wonk who cares about all the people of the country. After Carter and Gore, a Nobel Prize for Clinton might be going too far but clearly, he intends to be deserving. Anybody who doesn't get the contrast between Bush and Clinton is a kind of person who makes "Republican" into a swear word. Obama needs everybody, and he doesn't deserve the office, he wouldn't do well in it, and he isn't the person we think he is if good people don't back him up.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Obama, great as his speech was, needs everything he can muster.

[ChezMJ]

Finally. Some common sense from the "We Hate The Clintons & All Their Supporters Post!" If Obama loses, I think it will be due to the hubris of Obamas supporters, who, even in victory, continue to trash the Clintons & their supporters at every turn. (Yet, after all the anti-war talking, BIDEN, a war supporter gets the VP nod!) I am considering voting for McCain simply because I am so ticked off at the Obamorons (not that ALL his supporters are morons but many are. MUZZLE THEM!) My state, Massachusetts, will go for Obama, so my vote won't change that. I just want him to know he needs to show more respect than the Obamorons do. I also intend to vote against John Kerry. He has been phoning it in; he needs to sweat & the Dems here finally put up an opponent in the Democratic primary.

Al Gore made a BIG mistake & LOST. Bill Clinton could have put him over the top but nooooo! He had to be so sanctimonious that he didn't avail himself of a guy who despite troubles was a very popular guy who had a great 8 year run. If he hadn't had such hubris, we would have been SPARED Dubya!

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

I got to say. A lot of those comments, on both sides, are wacky.

I actually know John McCain, and his new campaign manager, and like them both.

But if you imagine that McCain will be anything but some sort of Republican president, you are very sadly mistaken.

Remember, I am reporting some things to you.

You can either comment on what I am reporting and analyzing, or you can vent your spleens.

[BottomLine2008]

I never said I hate the Clintons. Get over this stuff.

[Zia]

IF NOTHING ELSE, Bill can deliver Arkansas to Obama.

[BottomLine2008]

Yeah, right. Doesn't matter, won't happen.

[Hansharriet]

Obama needs Bill like a hole in the head. He is without a much better speaker than Bill Clinton. More inspiring, sounding more honest. He doesn't need Carter and Clinton "helping" him. In fact Bill Clinton's "help" would destroy Obama, because Bill Clinton does not represent something new or Change. He belongs to the Nineties and not the 21st Century.

I voted for Hillary in the Primary, because I liked her attitude and fighting spirit as well as her fighting for progressive causes and candidates earlier in her life before she was with Bill. Then, when Bill "helped" her, she lost us, the Progressive Democrats.

Bill is an operator. He likes Wall Street and the big money guys who favored NAFTA . He didn't do a thing for the Unions, the workers and the Homeless or the poor. He helped to outsource jobs. He is not my kind of Democrat. I didn't vote for him in 1996. Although I didn't vote Republican, I just didn't vote for a President.

I wish they would leave Obama alone. I think he will be OK without Bill. Guys like Richardson, Edwards, Dodd and Kucinich can help him, but keep that Operator Bill Clinton away. And Hillary is OK without Bill. She is smart, speaks well and still has a lot of drive.

In case you think I am a young idealistic first time voter, I am a 87 year young Progressive Democrat and WW ii Veteran who loves politics.

[BottomLine2008]

Too bad you aren't interested in your candidate winning the election ...

[fem56]

Richardson is an excellent govenor and he didn't need to be trashed because he thinks Obama is the man for his time. Everyone has a right to their own view and revenge only causes more problems.

[Insightful]

Would you really want a guy like Richardson around you? He is a turncoat and such a bag of wind.
Bill Clinton should have left him wherever he found him instead of giving him a good job. Would you really want a guy like Edwards to endorse you?
I don't think Obama is worthy of Bill Clinton's help. I think you are very mixed up when it comes to judging these politicians. They all love power and money. You can bet the Kennedy's own Obama for bringing him into power. Watch Caroline get a big job for her part in the play.
By the way, Hillary Clinton would have been the better president.

[dajay]

Insightful: EXACTLY.

[Tennwoman]

I applaud you! At 87, you convey a clarity and honesty to which those of us even half your age should aspire. You see things as they are and not as you wish them to be. I believe the Clinton "mystique" is overvalued. Bill Clinton accomplished some good things, but he did not leave office without having "done no harm." It was his moral lapses which propelled the Christian Right and their candidate, George W. Bush, into the White House. I believe that Hillary Clinton, in intellect, reasoning, and moral compass is superior to her husband. This time was not ultimately her time, and I truly believe that my party has nominated the person whose time is now. If Americans can be swayed by political "darlings", it should be Hillary, and not Bill, who convinces the American public that it must elect Barack Obama.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Hillary doesn't have the pull that Bill has in the states that McCain must win.

Everything else is conversation.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Except ... No. Bill Clinton helps Obama enormously where McCain must win. That's the deal.

[quest44]

The Clinton's did their part in bringing the party back together after what was a dirty primary that divided Democrat against Democrat now I think its time for the Clinton's to move back from the limelight and let the wounds heal and for Obama to move back into that light with Joe Biden .
I am sure in the future with Obama as President he would call on Bill and Hillary to aid him with certain issues but he will also have his own administration who will do whatever needs to be done.
Right now Obama needs to put his team together and focus on HIS campaign !
I think people are forgetting its Obama who won the nomination and he is the only one who should be chosing who he will use in the future not the people .
We will be ending the convention tonight on a united front so lets keep it that way and stop stiring up more controversy .That is like saying that Hillary really was the only one who could win this election and I think that is an insult to Obama ! Give the man his due credit please !
While I do appreciate their support in the convention and they did an excellent job ,I really think its time for Obama to shine in his own light not in the shadows of the Clinton's after all it is Obama we will be voting for in November not a Clinton .

[BottomLine2008]

Obama is on the verge of losing this election. Get real.

[fem56]

We all need to move on and fight against McCain. Thankfully Obama is great at cutting to the real issues.

[Casbah]

I sincerely hope both Obama and the Clintons can keep their bruised feelings at bay. The Clintons' speches did show they are capable of putting those feelings aside, and Obama's cheerful comments last night, like Hillary "rocked the house," demonstrated the same on his part. I think he will be smarter than Al Gore and actively seek Bill Clinton's help campaigning in those states where it seems working-class whites are holding on, not to their guns, but to their racial resentments in not supporting a candidate whose programs, esp. his tax policy, will help them far more than the Bush-McCain policy for the wealthiest Americans.

[VillyVal]

Knee-jerk Clinton bashing (rampant on HuffPost for months now) has always baffled me. First, the South Carolina "race card" comment was wildly, even willfully misconstrued. Second, and more important, someone should have listened to Bill Clinton's "fairy tale" comment and figured out what he was talking about. It is very Rovian for the Republicans to hold that one in reserve and let it leak out to undercut Obama's acceptance speech.

Huh?

Okay. In 2004 Obama -- like Kerry and most everybody else -- bought into the necessity of the Iraq war. I remember him speaking on Meet the Press to the effect that he did not think going against his party's position during election season was a very good idea. Now someone has dug up some more --previously unaired -- footage in which he is spouting the standard 2004 line of argument.

Instead of getting out in front of the "fairy tale" of unflagging opposition to the war, Obama is now going to have to explain something too complex for the average voter (and HuffPostian) to process. I'm sorry to see it coming, but it should have been APPARENT to anyone with a brain back when BC made the fairy tale comment. ... Here come da judge.

The too easy, unexamined Billary-bashing is just about ready to come back and bite some backsides. All I can say is I told you so. ... Here come da TV ad....

[BottomLine2008]

It's funny how few people here are focusing on how to ACTUALLY WIN THE FREAKING ELECTION.

Too much tender feelings.

[CaptainStormfield]

Its hard for people to hear criticism of someone they idealize.
Bill unloaded some hard balls on Obama. Politics is a tough
game. The Clintons and Obama are both adult enough to do
what they have to do to win for all of us. Are you?

Now that some time has passed since the Clinton presidency,
I view Bill Clinton as a somewhat flawed giant, like all of us
he stumbled here and there but still has the power to do
good things for America.

[OkieMon]

obama can't win this election without the clintons' support...ironic since he stabbed them in the back so many times......

[frustratedinohio]

I agree. Having Bill Clinton on your side would be a good thing for Obama, but Obama's arrogance will keep that from happening. He doesn't want the former president to eclipse him in any way.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

I'm surprised people haven't gotten over this primary stuff. I believe Obama wants to win and listens to reason. It's not all on his side, either, naturally.

[BottomLine2008]

They're Democrats. Not members of an organized party.

Who said that?

[dajay]

He is so jealous of Bill and Hillary. Like he is even on the same level as the ex-president.

[dbm1966]

I thought Bill Clinton's speech was far better than his wife's, and I was not expecting that. He was very clear about his support for Barack Obama. He didn't dance around it, he said Barack Obama was his candidate. Great job!

That being said, only the future will tell if he will back up his words with action. I hope he does.

My big worry continues to be race. I think that's the reason he's not doing well in the states like PA where you would expect Democrats do well. After seeing the poll of voters in West Virginia re: whether race affected their primary decision, I think race is, unfortunately, going to play a big part in this election.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Well, West Virginia is clearly about race. Obama should win Pennsylvania, however.

[OkieMon]

not so fast....the repugs haven't even come out with the "middle americans use religion and guns as crutches" attack ads.....these alone will give ohio, pennsy, and flordia to mccain.....

[wdw101]

.......color does not help or hurt him with me but i don't care what keeps BO out of the white house......

i don't like his policies

[quest44]

Not as big a part as you may think dbm1966 .Those polls are not the true test and they also can are manipulated ,,in fact if you read several of them you get very different results .Obama will do fine in November !

[BottomLine2008]

You forget that the polls OVERSTATED Obama's support in the primaries.

Obama is in trouble. He can win, still, but he needs help.

[Soothsayer08]

I agree if Bill Clinton goes to these "hard working white" areas with Barack that should help pave the way for these yokels to vote for what's best for them .Bill Clinton can explain this, because these people not being familiar with blacks will be distrustful of Barack. Bill can act as a buffer. I hope he does this and proves once and for all that he wants what is best for the country and it's people. After all Bill and Hillary could be offered some payback in the way of an appointment.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

It's always best to refer to voters as yokels. Actually, you can come up with good reasons not to vote for Obama, no matter what your education level.

[quest44]

Payback for what ? Obama won this nomination fair and square he doesn't owe anyone any pay back .Please stop taking away from the man that which he earned and give him some respect .

[Boadicea]

There is no doubt in my mind that Bill Clinton is stll the same guy who cares about the platform issues of the Democratic Party. He will work hard for a Democratic victory, I'm sure. He knows as well as anyone that what matters most of all for Americans is the party in charge, and it's ideology, more than the particular person in the oval office. He knows we need a Democrat.

Obama recognizes what a great American Bill Clinton is, and he will benefit tremendously from Bill's expert messaging.

[MPeter]

Bill committed yesterday in his speech to work with 18 million Hillary supporters to help elect Obama. I understand the Obama team has already said it wants him on the campaign trail. So yes, I think he will be helping out.

[BottomLine2008]

I hope the anger and ego between Obama and Clinton don't get in the way of enlightened self-interest.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

That is what Democrats ought to be hoping.

[maab76]

The biggest problem I have with the Clinton primary campaign is the way in which they directed minimally honest attacks at Obama. They were totally in denial that they were writing the McCain play book for the national election. Blind, driving self-interest became destructive rhetoric to the Democratic Party and its drive to inhabit the White House. They might as well have been the driving force behind the blast of false-facts regarding legitimate citizenship, religious faith and practice, close professional associates, and full racial identity. Their links of Obama to Wright and Ayres smacks of accusing the Pope as being a pedifile and rapist simply because some priests were so labeled. Guilt by association is an over-worked accusation without much merit in the real world. Now with McCain using taped footage of so many of the Clinton remarks in his own campaign ads, we must certainly question the true goals of the Clintons. It will take many deeds to erase this blot on their actions.

[Boadicea]

The primary is over and McCain's campaign would have come up with all that crap anyway. As Obama has said, Hillary made him stronger as a candidate with her campaign.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

However, the length of the primary campaign, which went on much longer than it needed to, definitely hurt Obama.

[BottomLine2008]

True.

But to win, you better get over your hurt feelings.

The Clintons play to win.

[ClaCo]

"minimally honest attacks at Obama. They were totally in denial that they were writing the McCain play book".

Whoa! So you think in a campaign a contender must refrain from saying what he believes to be the shortcomings of his opponent because "the other party will use it?" That goes both ways, you know, what if Obama had been hobbled with a "let's don't give McCain any ideas", restraint?

Silly beyond words. If the thin-skinned and amateurish Obama campaign couldn't overcome the primary campaign and mount a serious campaign against McCain without the Clintons riding to the rescue, that just means the Clintons were right -they ain't ready for primetime.

Every politician uses the words of those who have opposed their opponent - that's good politics and I'm sure Obama will use Romney's against McCain. Obama supporters need to seriously grow up and fast or their guy is going to lose. This "poor me" attitude is getting mighty old and childish.

[quest44]

It would be nice if the baiting would stop don't you think .