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Obama's Consequential First 4th: NoKo, AfPak, Iraq, Russia, Palin (Palin?!)
In his weekend video/radio address, President Barack Obama discussed the heritage of Independence Day and pushed his economic, energy, and health care agenda.
Quite a consequential first 4th of July as president for Barack Obama.
Not only did he have 20 of daughter Malia's schoolgirl friends over for a Camp David sleepover in honor of her 11th birthday on the 4th of July -- just wait till her "Independence Day," Dad -- he had a few other things on his plate, as well as the barbecue for military families and the fireworks show. Not counting his inherited worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.
North Korea was to have been the drama of the day. But it turned into a major fizzle.
Those wacky characters in Pyongyang had threatened to challenge Obama in two big ways. First, with a ship reportedly carrying contraband weapons technology for sale. And more dramatically, with a threatened test launch of a long-range missile toward Obama's home state of Hawaii on the 4th of July. But fortune, or perhaps the judicious use of presidential pressure, smiled on Obama as the ship turned back and the missile launch to Hawaii did not materialize.
On the AfPak crisis, Obama monitored the first big military offensive he's ordered, the Marines in southern Afghanistan, just underway over the last three days, as well as the first big military offensive he's suggested, the Pakistani Army against encroaching Pakistani Taliban, underway for weeks.
On the Iraq War, which he opposed from the beginning as a distraction from the attackers of 9/11, not to mention a quagmire-in-the-making, Obama monitored the pullback of US combat forces from Iraq's cities and towns, completed just a few days ago.
On Russia, Obama continued prepping for what may be his most important summit meeting of the year, the Moscow Summit on July 6-8. And received good news about Russian assistance in Afghanistan. Which naturally will come with a price tag.
On Sarah Palin ... Okay, that's more of a light dessert than an entree. But still, at least a mild distraction. Is there a rational political explanation for her behavior? And, more to the point: Does it matter in the least?
Two weeks ago, North Korea had a ship at sea carrying contraband weapons technology, in seeming violation of the UN Security Council, and threatened to launch a long-range missile at Hawaii on the 4th of July. Both threats evaporated.
** For weeks, Obama and his team had to monitor the North Korean situation. North Korea has been an incipient crisis since its underwhelming but threatening nuclear test detonation this past spring. In this latest iteration, ts threatened long-range missile test launch toward Obama's home state Hawaii on the 4th of July did not, in the end, materialize. But the North Koreans did fire off a number of shorter-range missiles, which can reach targets in South Korea and Japan.
Perhaps the North Koreans were dissuaded by Obama moving anti-missile units to Hawaii to shoot down their missile on the off chance it got anywhere nearby. (Their last two long-range missile tests were failures, with an attempt in the spring to place a satellite in orbit falling far short, and another long-range launch a few years ago getting less than a minute down range.)
North Korea also provided some drama by sending a cargo ship, the Kang Nam, apparently carrying missiles, on a voyage to rendezvous with some buyers.
Obama ordered a Navy destroyer -- USS John McCain, by coincidence, named for the four-star admiral father and grandfather of his 2008 Republican opponent -- to shadow the North Korean vessel down the China coast. Meanwhile, the North Korean ship was denied entry first by Singapore, then by Burma, and turned around.
It wouldn't be hard to dismiss North Korea as a silly nation, intent on comic opera threats and easily parodied Stalinist bluster. It certainly has a pattern of acting like an attention-seeking child, albeit a particularly nasty one. But then you consider that it has the fifth-largest military in the world, and could easily overrun South Korea but for the US presence in the region. As it did in the Korean War.
Incidentally, despite all the provocations, Obama apparently did not make the usual move of ordering an aircraft carrier strike group or two into the waters off the Korean Peninsula. An interesting subtlety, given the other moves that were made.
Obama ordered thousands of US Marines into Taliban strongholds in southern Afghanistan in Operation Strike of the Sword.
** Obama is closely monitoring the first offensive he has ordered involving large numbers of American troops. This is Operation Strike of the Sword, involving more than 4000 US Marines and about 750 Afghan troops, as well as hundreds of British troops. They have moved into the Helmand Province in southern Afghanistan, a hotbed of Afghan Taliban activity. They have encountered little resistance, and only one Marine has reportedly been killed so far.
The Marines will set up a series of bases there and pursue active patrolling with the near-term goal of preventing Taliban disruption of Afghanistan's presidential election in August. Obama has clarified that the overall goal is to deny Afghanistan as a base for Al Qaeda. As distinguished from, say, setting up a 21st century Western-style democracy.
There was no bad news on that front today. And given how badly things have gone in Afghanistan in recent years, no bad news counts as arguably good news.
** Vice President Joe Biden celebrated the 4th of July in Iraq with US troops and Iraqi officials. He and the Delaware contingent of National Guard troops - which includes Biden's son, Delaware Attorney General Joe Biden - had a 4th of July party at the late Saddam Hussein's presidential palace.
The security handover in the cities from American to Iraqi forces is going well. So far.
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev delivered an encomium to a new friendship with America.
** Obama flies to Moscow on Sunday for his major summit with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Obama is engaged in major preparations prior to the Moscow Summit. Word is that the US and Russia have reached tentative agreement on a plan to regularly ship military supplies - and perhaps US troops - across Russia to aid the US effort in Afghanistan.
This summit in Moscow from July 6th to July 8th may be Obama's most important. It will be followed by the G-8 summit in Italy. Key issues, which of course will be explained further, involve America's role in NATO expansion and missile defense seemingly aimed at Russia and potential major Russian assistance to America's agenda in Afghanistan, Iran, and the Middle East.
Sarah Palin resigning as governor of Alaska in a curious statement.
** Obama and company may also be trying to parse the meaning, if any, of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin's sudden decision yesterday to resign from office little more than halfway through her first term. Her statement was, let's say, on the rambling side. I'm being kind. Mostly because Palin bores me.
Obama should be so lucky as to face Palin in the 2012 presidential election. I have a Thursday piece, linked below, which sheds some light on the chaos surrounding Palin.
Compared to the other matters, Palin is strictly a sideshow. As, actually, I've been saying since she was picked, in what was a distinctly backfiring move, for the Republican ticket.
Presumably, with all these far more consequential matters on his plate, Obama spent little time thinking about Sarah Palin.
Now it's on to Russia, which can't be seen from Obama's house ...
You can check things during the day on my site, New West Notes ... www.newwestnotes.com.
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In celebration of the 4th of July, I offer this essay in defense of our greatest founding father, Thomas Jefferson. I feel Mr. Jefferson’s reputation has been unfairly eviscerated by a misrepresentation of the DNA results in the Hemings controversy.
The “Sally” story is pure fiction, possibly politics, but certainly not historical fact or science. My new book, IN DEFENSE OF THOMAS JEFFERSON (Thomas Dunne Books, 2009), definitively destroys this myth:
• the one eyewitness to this sexual allegation was Edmund Bacon, Jefferson’s overseer at Monticello, who saw another man (not Jefferson) leaving Sally’s room ‘many a morning.’ Bacon wrote: “…I have seen him come out of her mother’s room many a morning when I went up to Monticello very early.”
• Randolph Jefferson, his younger brother, would have the identical Jefferson Y chromosome as his older brother, Thomas, that matched the DNA. Randolph had a reputation for socializing with Jefferson's slaves and was expected at Monticello approximately nine months before the birth of Eston Hemings, Sally’s son who was the DNA match for a “male Jefferson.”
• The DNA match was to a male son of Sally’s. Randolph had six male sons. Thomas Jefferson had all female children with his beloved wife, Martha, except for a male who died in infancy.
• The personality of the man who figures in the Hemings soap opera cannot be attributed to the known nature of Jefferson, and would be preposterously out of character for him.
I'm a John Adams kinda guy myself. Highly undervalued and underestimated throughout history, but a great, brilliant, loving individual. He tended to be honest and straightforward in how he communicated, that honesty and integrity set others aback, making them uncomfortable. Especially our esteemed friend Jefferson. Adams simply lived as if he had nothing to hide.
We are just now appreciating Adams' brilliance as a politician and leader today. We have one, maybe more such individuals currently, whom some tend to undervalue in the same way as Mr. Adams. Thank goodness not all Americans are ignorant.
Just sayin'...
My apologies Whyland. Before going on my tirade on my July 4 favorite, Adams, I should have thanked you for your essay on Mr. Jefferson, and your time in sharing it with us. Thank you.
What does this have to do with the column?
some days serendipity wins
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Thanks. I'm a great fan of Thomas Jefferson, and have his bust here in my office.
Watching Palin quit as governor, I am just amazed again at all the attention this person gets. I'll be the President a few centuries before that fool is.
See William Bradley's Profile
Quite likely.
Medvedev comes off like a nice guy.
So, is he the Russian good cop to Putin's bad cop?
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Who says that Putin isn't the good cop? ...
Who says he is?
Those Marines in Afghanistan look like they know their business.
Operation Strike of the Sword. Who came up with that code name? It doesn't sound very pacifistic.
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I'm sure McChrystal came up with it.
Don't think I've ever met a Marine who was a pacifist - not really part of their job.
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I think he was commenting on the "peacenik" (haha) Obama Administration.
It's fascinating looking at the news clip a few weeks back about the big North Korea stuff that ended up this weekend not happening.
I didn't think Obama's 4th of July speech was one of his best.
It's amazing all the attention given to silly Sarah Palin with all the much more important and interesting things happening.
We must admit that a state governor suddenly resigning, without any articulated reason, is news. But the rest of the stuff that gets Palin headlines is generally fluffy nonsense.
True, But why still talking about it? The media in this country is stuck on garbage. It's all Michael Jackson and Sarah Palin.
Dear Lord, please deliver us from "compassionate" Liberals and far right Conservatives. If O'bama's financial policies are the best that the Ivy League schools can produce, we are are in big trouble. If the finances don't work, nothing works. O'bama's financial equation is based on 'AND THEN A MIRACLE HAPPENS"
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You win the Non Sequitur Award.
Ha! But, I shouldn't laugh out too loudly as I have undoubtedly deserved a few of those myself, over the years...
I agree with everything you said in the last section about Palin. It makes one wonder then why on earth she has gotten the lion's share of coverage here and elsewhere.
I don't wonder about that...not anymore..
I just continue to lament the fact that the vast majority of the media/blogosphere/punditocracy continue on their downward spiral into a collective state of perpetual irrelevance as ineptitude and incompetence run rampant through their ranks...present company excepted, of course. :-)
I suppose you're right...unfortunately...(sigh)
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Hysteria amongst activists and sloppy media.
I don't understand why anyone thinks she's still, or ever was, a viable candidate. She makes a lot of noise but never any sense, which I guess is kind of like the media.
Exactly!
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Palin is an ADD noisemaker.
Has it been determined as to whether or not Secretary of State Clinton will accompany President Obama to Russia/G8? Last I heard, she had cancelled both trips because of her elbow fracture and its follow-up PT, but situations change.
I'm with LizM, as I'm sure many other Americans are: any news of the kidnapped US soldier, especially positive, would be appreciated.
(Palin = word salad with a side order of nonsense croutons)
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No, Hillary isn't going to Russia or the G-8.
Still recovering from her broken elbow.
I can proudly say that while Bush trashed our relations with Russia, I was always friendly with the people there.
Yes, and I had good relations with the people too, but I can say that as an American living in Russia, I'm really really glad Bush is gone. Russians are very intrigued by Obama and I think that they're open to a better political and person-to-person relationship with the US. Medvedev's speech was quite encouraging--I'm really looking forward to seeing how this goes.
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The Moscow Summit is going to be very fascinating.
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Are you forgetting that Bill Clinton pushed the NATO expansion strategy?
The reality is that all problems in the universe cannot be traced to George W. Bush ...
Are you implying that NATO expansion is a problem...or that the Clinton strategy was problematic?
Female people? :)
Given the rate at which things have been moving up until now, I'm thinking that the next 7and a half years will, in retrospect, seem like a virtual blur...with or without a Palin challenge thrown in for good measure.
Has there been any news of the captured/abducted US soldier and his three Afghan guards in southeastern Afghanistan?
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The Taliban are saying that the soldier they kidnapped -- who has no involvement with the Marine offensive -- was drunk after coming out of some bar.
Well, the Taliban would know.
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