Re-Setting the Geopolitical Table: How Obama's Big Trip Is Going

President Barack Obama, at a town hall meeting in Strasbourg, France, acknowledged American "arrogance" and decried knee-jerk anti-Americanism in Europe and elsewhere.

One down, three to go. At a time when the geopolitical table is being reset, President Barack Obama is in the midst of a huge international tour. London's G-20 summit -- with several bilateral mini-summits having taken place on the side -- has concluded. The NATO summit is underway in France and Germany. Waiting not far off in the wings are the European Union summit in Prague and an intriguing summit in Turkey.

With NATO's future mission very unclear, I suspect the two most successful stops will be the first and the last.

The G-20 went well. Not as well as advertised, which is par for most any political course, but much better than most of the Gs -- 7, 8, or 20. This one, comprised of not seven or eight but 20 advanced economies, 19 nations plus the European Union, the largest members of which are also represented, came at a time in which the typical rhetorical inaction was unthinkable. So it got some things done, with Obama in the middle of it all.

At his joint press conference with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown kicking off the G-20 summit, Obama said, with regard to the global economic crisis: "Some are to blame, but all are responsible."

Obama didn't get the $2 trillion global stimulus program that he and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown reportedly wanted, but they did get over a trillion dollars to shore up small developing nations and provide a boost to larger struggling economies like those of Mexico and Eastern Europe.

There are new financial regulations, too, dealing with corporate tax havens and hedge funds, but they are well short of the centralized global regime that French President Nicolas Sarkozy was pushing for. Instead, there is a Financial Stability Board which will monitor, but not actually police high-flying transnational finance operations, leaving it up to national governments to take real action. If they can.

It's a lot more than what's existed in the past, and certainly an affront to the laissez-faire uber alles crowd, but hardly a new full-scale regime.

In fact, Obama himself interceded when things became hot between Sarkozy and Chinese President Hu Jintao. Sarkozy wanted to include a European report naming tax havens, including the big ones in China, in the G-20 closing document. Obama got the two to agree to a reference to the European report rather than its inclusion.

Obama had a successful mini-summit meeting in London with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, who referred afterward to the US president as "my comrade." Obama goes to Moscow for a full-scale summit meeting in July.

Obama's mini-summits in London, with the leaders of Russia, China, and India, seemed to go well. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh agreed to continued forbearance with Pakistan in the wake of last Thanksgiving's terrorist siege of Mumbai. Chinese President Hu Jintao was calm about Obama ordering Navy destroyers to protect US surveillance operations in the South China Sea, and agreed to a summit sometime last this year. The two agreed to set up a closer ongoing consultative process, with the country's respective foreign and finance ministers meeting at least twice a year. The first meeting will be in Washington in July. Most notably, Obama seemed to hit it off with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev. The two agreed to reduce nuclear weapons, and Obama will go to Moscow for a full-scale summit meeting in July.

Then there was the celebrity factor, which in Obama's case is huge. The Indian prime minister asked for Obama's autograph. For his daughter. The British and European press are going wild for him, as the Friday morning town hall in Strasbourg, France made clear. And Michelle Obama, a formidable and attractive lawyer, is getting Jackie Kennedy-style coverage as an unlikely fashion icon pitted, in typical conventional media style, against France's first lady, former supermodel Carla Bruni.

But now things get a little tougher.

Obama declared NATO "the most successful alliance in modern history." But its ongoing purpose is cloudy on its 60th anniversary.

The NATO summit is definitely tougher. For starters, what is the mission of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization? You could easily say it's already achieved its mission, nearly two decades ago.

This weekend is NATO's 60th anniversary. Founded in the aftermath of World War II, with much of Western Europe afraid that a then ascending Soviet Union would come blasting through the Fulda Gap, it's not clear what NATO's raison d'etre is in the 21st century.

Since the collapse of the USSR and its Warsaw Pact alliance, NATO has been an organization in search of a mission. But aside from intervening fairly successfully in various nasty ethnic clashes in the Balkans -- and infuriating Russia by expanding to its borders -- it hasn't done much since the fall of the Berlin Wall, that menacing symbol which exists now only in the form of shards for Cold War collectors.

Now it's heavily involved in Afghanistan, action triggered by the Al Qaeda attack on NATO member America on 9/11. But with the exception of the British, and some Canadian and Dutch units, American forces have taken on the bulk of the actual fighting.

And while Obama would like to get more troops from other NATO nations into the soon-to-be stepped-up fight there, only Britain and Australia say they will send more combat troops. And Australia isn't a part of NATO.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who is ending his country's policy dating back to Charles De Gaulle of staying out of NATO's actual command structure, said today that he is all for Obama's new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan.

But, like German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who also endorsed Obama's new plans, he seems likely only to send more civilian aid and provide more training for Afghanistan's army and police.

Which is only part of what Obama's looking for.

Then there is the Russian question. It has been NATO policy to expand its membership not only into the old Warsaw Pact but right up to Russia's borders. An anti-missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic, pushed by the Bush/Cheney Administration has been endorsed. There doesn't seem to be any consensus on those moves now, especially with Obama exploring a new relationship with Moscow.

Is there a future for NATO?

To disband NATO now would seem an abandonment of Central and Eastern European members fearful of a resurgent Russia. But even a resurgent Russia seems hardly the threat that the old Soviet Union was. With its own financial problems given the sharp declines in the price of oil, Russia is more a renewed great power than a superpower. It seems to bear more potential gifts -- with regard to support in Afghanistan, and with Iran -- than real threats, at least for America.

So NATO will continue, at least for a time. As it does, and as it provides what it will to serve American interests, the Obama Administration is looking for new emphases in its alliances.

Obama gives a major speech on cutting nuclear weapons in Prague, where he attends the European Union summit -- with many of the same characters he will have seen for several days running -- following the NATO summit. That might help assuage former Warsaw Pact members, free from the old Soviet empire, who fear a resurgent Moscow.

Obama declared London's G-20 summit "a turning point" in global economic recovery. But his visit to Ankara may prove the most important of his summits.

But it's Obama's closing summit, in Ankara, Turkey, which may hold the real breakthroughs in re-setting the table of geopolitics.

Turkey is a member of NATO. But the European Union won't let it in. A Muslim nation, Turkey is arguably the most powerful militarily and the most balanced economically in the Islamic world, and perhaps the most stable.

In the new emerging Obama conception of geopolitics, it may be that it is Turkey, strategically situated on the Bosporus, which provides even more needed help with Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as a watchful counterweight to Russia.

Turkey is already throwing its weight around in NATO, trying to block the accession of the French and German candidate to be the alliance's new secretary-general. After we see how that goes, and how Obama plays it, next week's Obama visit to Ankara -- which includes a roundtable discussion with Turkish students -- may be the most intriguing of all.

You can check things during the day on my site, New West Notes ... www.newwestnotes.com.

Comments

[PlaceboStudman]

My understanding is that the expectations going in on this trip were very low. We have a lot of repairing our image to do, and while some people think that isn't as important as "the big stuff", the deals and money and such, without rebuilding our shoddy reputation, we won't get ANY of the things we ask for. Obama asked for some things, like more troops, but didn't get it. I don't blame Germany and France for rebuffing us there, when it was the US under Bush who exascerbated the issue to an out of control war to begin with. Europe doesn't owe us anything. We owe them for decimating their economy and the rise of anti-Americanism. There is just so much to do to rebuild out reputation, and we made some good progress. We really shouldn't complain much.

Turkey will be the turning point though, and everything may be riding on that. I'll be glued to the tv and internet to see how things go there

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

The Germans and French have never been into sending troops to another part of the world, not in this generation.

I think expectations were middling, and they are being surpassed.

[nk007]

Mr. Bradley,

This is an excellent and even handed assessment of Obama's first working appearance on the world stage. While Obama may not have accomplished all that he set out do, I think any fair minded person would agree that he made an important step in restoring the image of the United States. Thanks again for your thoughtful posts on this site. I always enjoy reading them.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Thank you very much, I appreciate it.

[harobamason]

You forgot to add that the First Lady Michelle Obama has done a pretty good job too.

[BraveWarrior]

I guess using the AIG bailout to repay all the losses of those European banks would insure that Obama would be well received by the G20 summit. Too bad we can no longer afford to award squadrons of F15s to encourage Nato assistance in Afghanistan. This gathering failed because its goals are lost causes. The war in Afghanistan has all ready been lost. The 'hearts and minds' of these tribesmen has been lost with repeated murders of innocent bystanders, and lack of any economic development aid. In a country without even a basic infrastructure and massive unemployment the only US assistance offered is a rifle and a stipend to kill their cousins. The people there clearly understand that the value of Afghani lives means nothing. European governments-reviled by their citizens for bailing out the banks, have serious problems problems addressing their domestic unrest from growing unemployment. Sending their young people to fight and die in the 'Empire Strikes Back' sequel is unpalatable. The problem of public opinion in European capitals doesn't seem to affect the US-where politicians do what they are paid to without much concern for public opinion. The biggest lost cause is trying to save Capitalism. Didn't Marx predict that it would destroy itself. This corrupt, murderous world order has succeeded only in destroying itself. The only true hope for mankind is building a new world on the ashes of the old. The single most common cause of violence is injustice. No justice, no peace.

[BottomLine2008]

I guess ... you sound like the mirror opposite of that fringe right guy.

It's a disaster! America is lost. America is doomed.

[Javani]

"I guess using the AIG bailout to repay all the losses of those European banks would insure that Obama would be well received by the G20 summit. "

Yes, it's about the money, and what more they can get. But Obama made a mistake--he promised the IMF new hundreds of billions BEFORE getting a deal on Afghan combat troops.

"The 'hearts and minds' of these tribesmen has been lost with repeated murders of innocent bystanders, and lack of any economic development aid."

They hate you because you, and your aid, is kufr, though not as bad as Shia.

But, if you stop interfering with opium production, 90% of their complaints will wither in a zip.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

What some folks consistently fail to get is that the Taliban are funded by the drug trade.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

The NATO summit didn't fail. It did what knowledgeable observers expected.

Thanks for all the other ideological stuff there ...

[littleblackcat]

What a stunningly refreshing change from 8 years of swagger, bragging, talking down to the world, threats, bluster, and bulls#!^ the everyone had to endure by the previous administration.
It's almost enough to shed tears of relief and gratitude to a man of intelligence and grace, who is returning the U.S. to a time of manners, intellect, humor, and acceptance. Now we all need to do our own part and make sure the Europeans don't continue to see examples of the "ugly Americans" in any of the rest of our behavior.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Obama is doing quite well on this trip. What he isn't getting is more a matter of clashing interest than lack of regard for him.

[mcantwell]

I just checked out your web-site for President Obama's Sunday schedule. The guy must be completely exhausted just from the jet lag and lack of sleep, not to mention the ambitious schedule.

[Lovepolitics2008]

And he's got a head cold on top of that !!

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

It's a killer schedule. But he's taking the night off tonight in Istanbul!

[MaryT63]

Thanks Mr. Bradley for sharing some clear concise light on the Obama trip. For me, so far the trip is a success based on how USA was preceived a year ago when nobody wanted to sit down w us. Obama may not have gotten them to do a stimulus plan like we did, but their histories are diffferent, they don't have the social safety net worries like we do, they still resent that our Wall Street go them in this mess. So we need to understand this - even I would be reluctant to embrace those hands that badly burned me. So Obama did not get stimulus plan, only the big increase to IMF - but he and we got so much more - successful introduction to the world stage of political leaders and citizens of the world that showed his charm, charisma, grace, dipolmacy, humbleness and intelligence. My mom always said those attitudes take you much farther than the threatening, vindictiveness, name-calling, the bribing that took place in the Bush Admin. So Obama will get what he wants. He was just laying the foundation.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

You're welcome.

[chnge2012]

Bozo Biden said Barak Hussien Obama has a "spine of steel". Well its more like a bannana backbone, sure go over there where thousands of U.S. soldiers are buried and blame the U.S. for everything, including not being subserviant to Muslim domination. VERY DISGUSTING!

[BottomLine2008]

Thanks for the typical fringe right distortion ...

[amistad]

Your post is VERY DISGUSTING.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Let's try to avoid a flame war provoked by a ridiculous comment.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Putting aside your complete inability to spell properly, your remarks are quite divorced from reality.

[LeftLeanWing]

Only weak or insecure nations have to maintain a facade of an overdemanding, spoiled, irrational bully. When you are the only Economic and Military Superpower left in the World, you don't have to be Caligula to be effective.

Everyone knows what our hyperpowers are and know that we know how to use them. All of these posturing you elude to is just smearing in their faces something they already know.

Being respectful of all Nations is not a sign of weakness but a acknowledgment of our strength.

The US doesn't have to behave like North Korea or Venezuela----- always finding it necessary to proves themselves that they are a contender. We did that under Bush - and nothing progressed.

Or do you like it when Big Poppa plays in the sandbox with the belligerent little kids ?

[LeftLeanWing]

I'm typo prone..... sorry

[Gould123]

Finally a TRUE article of his accomplishments over sea, an the Great beginning of repairing the Bush years Mess he's made! More please!

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Thanks, I will.

[BottomLine2008]

The G-20 was good but the trip to Turkey is the most interesting. I don't know much about Turkey and see nothing about here or anywhere else in the media.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

I'll have a lot on Turkey and the Obama Administration on Monday.

[BottomLine2008]

Obama is right about the history of NATO being great. History is what NATO is, now.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

NATO will continue, at least for awhile, but a game of musical chairs is underway.

[BottomLine2008]

I'm glad Obama and Medvedev are hitting it off well. Russia and America should be a lot friendlier than they've been.

[LeftLeanWing]

As long as Obama doesn't do any soul-searching though an eye-to-eye telescope

[Yanaar Lee]

But that's his gig!

[BottomLine2008]

Obama and Gordon Brown set a good frame for the Group of 20 summit.

[BottomLine2008]

Obama did a great job at that town hall in France.

[BottomLine2008]

The whole international game is changing! Fascinating times.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Yes it is, and yes they are.