Rebranding Republicans: McCain's Conundrum

While Barack Obama is at last able to claim the Democratic nomination, John McCain has had the luxury of months to work on "rebranding" a Republican Party grown very tarnished due to the economic downturn and the deep unpopularity of George W. Bush and the Iraq War. But a day spent recently following McCain around California points up how difficult a task he has in store. And how short he remains of the mark.

McCain's conundrum was obvious even before his defensive attempt this week to counter-program Obama's victory speech, in which he protested a bit too much about how different he is from Bush even as his campaign was confirming that he is now in line with the president in agreeing that surveillance of international phone calls and e-mails need not be approved by the secret FISA court, which has routinely rubber-stamped requests.

In a sense, it shouldn't be hard for McCain. He's a famous man, a famous war hero, a famous maverick. He has his own image. He ran against Bush, and was savaged by him. He's famously bucked the party line. But it may be one thing to be an insurgent in an unpopular party, as he was in 2000. It may be quite another to be its nominee.

I hooked up on the road with McCain late last month in California's glitzy Silicon Valley and rural Central Valley. Far from departing from Republican orthodoxy, McCain, who did not seem a happy warrior, mostly embraced it.

He was joined at an economic roundtable in Silicon Valley by several tech titans, and the politician who succeeded in rebranding his own Republicanism, Arnold Schwarzenegger. It was in California, with Schwarzenegger's backing, where McCain essentially won the Republican nomination, knocking out Mitt Romney. It was in California where Schwarzenegger, after veering disastrously to the right in a 2005 special election, recast himself as a global warming-fighting/infrastructure-building centrist and easily sloughed off Democratic attempts to make him out to be a Bush clone.

But in his California trip, McCain hewed pretty heavily to the party line, even as he said he aims to make a real run at the state in which Bush and the Republican brand are in the dumpster. In Silicon Valley, the Vietnam War hero talked up the need to cut greenhouse gases, his hoped-for silver bullet talisman demonstrating his non-Bushieness. But he also talked up Bushonomics: Lower corporate taxes, disdain for the capital gains tax, reduced regulation. And he attacked Obama for wanting to "unilaterally renegotiate NAFTA." The same thing his roundtable moderator and national co-chair, billionaire former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, said. Some Republicans, fearful that the governorship will go back to the Democrats after the term-limited Schwarzenegger departs at the end of 2010, look to this former Romney national finance co-chair to make a run.

But these very positions were contradicted by a new poll showing most voters in very sharp disagreement. And certainly voters in industrial swing states mistrust this sort of free trade dogma.

The most striking moment of the roundtable came from Schwarzenegger. He's come to emphasize the climate change issue so much that he's lionized by many environmentalists and magazine covers for his stance, notwithstanding all his jet and SUV travel, for which he must have purchased the equivalent of a small rain forest in carbon offsets. Schwarzenegger, who McCain advisors say is a role model for rebranding, broke through the corporate decorum of the event by saying that government has to intervene to force Detroit to make clean new vehicles. "They have a billboard there attacking me, saying 'Schwarzenegger to Detroit: Drop Dead.' I say Schwarzenegger to Detroit, get off your butt!" This got the biggest burst of applause of anything said during the session, from the crowd of Silicon Valley types and mostly moderate Republicans in the audience.

And here we see the core of McCain's problem. Schwarzenegger pitched his electoral resurrection almost entirely around an appeal to independents and moderate voters. He mostly ignored the noisy leadership of the Republican base, which came to loathe him, not that he seems to care. (And he never set foot near George W. Bush.) But in the end, they had nowhere else to go.

McCain has a similar situation, as his high command knows. A Republican base increasingly out of step with mainstream thinking. A path to victory that requires the ability to appeal to the burgeoning ranks of independents through a creative (not split the difference) centrism.

But despite his reputation as a maverick, and his evident heroism in the Navy, he's being much less bold. He runs the risk of fading into the woodwork in comparison to the charismatic Obama.

In a speech that afternoon before a rally in the Central Valley town of Stockton, McCain played the Iraq and Iran cards, before a crowd of 500 or so of the party faithful. With a crowd revved up by thunderous rock music and the even more thunderous sound of a group of motorcyclists revving their engines way past the redline, McCain played the patriotism card in much the way that Bush and Karl Rove would recommend, saying that Obama wants to "surrender in Iraq."

He seemed to have a sense of personal pique about Obama, who was criticizing him for voting against the new GI bill carried by McCain's old friend Jim Webb. He described Obama as "a very young man and a very inexperienced man," unqualified to even venture an opinion on veterans affairs "since he never served" and certainly not trustworthy enough to defend America.

McCain had already chosen, fatefully, to endorse Bush's remarks in Israel widely viewed as casting the "appeasement" label on Obama's willingness to talk with hostile nations. McCain took the bait and defended Bush from the furious counter-attack mounted against him from across the Democratic Party. "I think it is an unacceptable position," said McCain, "and shows that Senator Obama does not have the knowledge, the experience, the background to make the kind of judgments that are necessary to preserve this nation's security."

Ironically, McCain had just prior to that given a better speech than Tuesday night's rather awkward effort in which he asserted his independence from Bush and sketched out a vision of America at the end of his first term as president. Among other things, McCain -- seeking to get the "100 years war" trope out of circulation -- made clear his intent to withdraw most US forces from Iraq by January 2013. Remaining forces are out of the business of direct combat. Victory is defined as a less bad situation. But not anywhere near the pipe dreams of the war's original architects.

Which, of course, will be very hard to pull off without engaging Iran, perhaps the key power broker in Iraq.

He talked up the climate change issue and then decried "a hyperpartisanship that treats every serious challenge facing us as an opportunity to trade insults, disparage each other's motives, and fight about the next election."

But that's what McCain is doing now, disparaging motives and tossing insults. And even on climate change, he has a problem. For, while he has done some things in the field, he has opposed various efforts to promote renewable energy sources through green tech and impose higher fuel efficiency standards. Without a strong commitment to those efforts, the cap & trade program he has in mind for greenhouse gases won't be enough.

His ally Schwarzenegger has been much bolder in seizing the independent mantle, accelerating state requirements for utilities to include renewables in their energy mix and, working with former Governor-turned-Attorney General Jerry Brown, fighting the auto industry and the Bush Administration in court to get cleaner and more efficient cars.

In my talks with McCain advisors, they are very well aware that this is a very rough year for Republicans. Bush has a near record low approval rating. Fully 80% of voters think America is on the wrong track. Republicans have lost three straight special elections in seemingly safe congressional districts. Virginia Congressman Tom Davis, former National Republican Campaign Committee chairman, says that Bush is simply "radioactive."

The Republican brand is battered. The Democratic brand is significantly more popular. And independents are on the rise.

In this environment, a strategy focused principally on mobilizing the base, as in the 2000 and 2004 elections, will fail. Even if Rev. Wright is conveniently ranting his infamous greatest hits 24/7 on all media outlets and all the other Obama boogie men -- Bill Ayers, Tony Rezko, Rashid Khalidi -- become household names. That doesn't mean these associations won't be issues. It does mean they won't be as determinative as many have it in their perfervid imaginings.

McCain has to hold on to a declining base and at the same time appeal to moderates and independents.

Why isn't McCain bolder in demonstrating his independence from Bush -- with whom he voted 95% of the time last year -- and breaking free from obviously unpopular partisan orthodoxy?

Does he really need Bush that badly to raise money? One key difference between McCain and Schwarzenegger is that the governor didn't need any help in that department.

Is he afraid to offend the Talk Radio Wing of the Republican Party, which he actually defeated in the Republican primaries?

Does he believe that if he strikes out on a more independent course that core Republicans voters will sit on their hands and allow a young liberal black man to become the next President of the United States?

Or is he really, with a few signal exceptions, much more a part of that increasingly unpopular Republican orthodoxy than he would like to admit?

He doesn't have much longer to come up with the right answers, if he can.

Comments

[LeonBNJ]

About the only things McCain will push in his campaign is cut taxes (on the upper incomes) and raise spending on the military. Problem is that may be enought to get him to win.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Well, no. And he couldn't possibly win this year doing that.

[SgtLazarus]

Refurbish or Rebrand or Repaint a Ford Pinto, and it will still remain a Ford Pinto... you know, a death trap, a lemon, a crappy car that shouldn't have been made or left the factory. Same for Republicans.

The tide is against Republicans. Americans are worn out from their dividing everyone unevenly during election season, and then splitting the difference immediately thereafter.

See Dick Cheney make horrible jokes about West Virginians, and without mincing a word, declared that he could now tell the truth because he's no longer running for office. West Virginians got Pintoed.

[mari2JJ]

Actually that is so right on. Bush cannot have it both ways, ie be the darling of the far right and then try to re-brand the Republican muddle of everything they have touched. I am a has-been Republican but had to look myself in the eye and realize that the Bush muck of the Republican brand has ruined Republicans for years to come. Now, job losses at an all time high, inflation out of site, our middle East policy coming home to roost, the Senate report of malfeasance Bush admin regarding war with Iraq. The war is costing us billions while our own economy is tanking. Billions spent on no-bid contracts. No thanks to McCain who just blabs on and on about the necessity to continue the Iraq war. Please face the facts folks. Bush inherited a surplus and he has decimated it in 7+ short years. The intel committee found that Bush lied about intel. the group included great Republicans who agreed since they value their country above their party. These BushBot goofs worry about Obama.??? Who could be worse than the Bush-Cheney malfeasance duet ?

[lisakaz2]

Real conservatism might stand a chance if the GOP would kick Bu$h to the curb. But they won't. Hence, they're in trouble.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Rebranding, as I tried to point to point out, does not a new paint job on the same old car. It entails rethinking and repositioning.

>Refurbish or Rebrand or Repaint a Ford Pinto, and it will still remain a Ford Pinto... you know, a death trap, a lemon, a crappy car that shouldn't have been made or left the factory. Same for Republicans.

[KillTheMessenger]

How about The Reborn Lying Bastards? That way they capture the religious right again (Reborn!), don't have to spend so much money on think tanks (they admit freely to be Lying) and "Bastard" is actually a word that sounds kind of nice.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

I'm sure you are trying to give the best advice possible ... :)

[Paul]

The Republican "brand" is radioactive.

McCain is the sacrificial lamb who must lose so badly that the GOP has to reinvent itself during its coming 30 years of political irrelevance.

Conservatives starting with Ronald Reagan and through both Bushs have wrecked America.

Time for a real change - not just new PR.

[Cookie100]

From your mouth to God's ear

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Just as Congressman Davis, who I quoted, said.

I don't think they view McCain as a sacrificial lamb. And I am sure the Dems will find some way to screw up over the next 30 years ...

[TamysDMilo]

John McCain has made constructed steps toward re-branding Republicans as the Party which opposes New Deal handouts. His platform promises to abolish Social Security once and for all so Americans have the opportunity to tie their retirement to the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ.

[reggieb]

so, when you do your due diligence, provided you know how, and assemble your portfolio and you lose it all because the tech bubble bursts or you owned enron or bear stearns etc... who's going to support your sorry a#%

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

McCain's platform does not abolish Social Security.

[ProfessorDuh]

No problem. McBush should just have the Republican in-house fascist propagandist, Frank Luntz, make up some new lie-names for him. You know, like the "death tax" to line the pockets of worthless billionaire heirs and the "hostile business climate" as a way to to wink at shipping worthwhile American jobs to overseas sweat shops.

[bhenry112]

All these comments make me remember how I, and many others, were rather apathetic about the 2000 election fight. Although I voted for Gore, I was really kind of unconcerned about the outcome. Bill Clinton had made presidentin' look easy, and it seemed both Gore and Bush were harmless nincompoops who would be pretty much the same. Boy, was I wrong! I can't imagine Americans in 2008 will be as complacent as I, and many others, were in 2000. I'm doing my best in daily life to convince as many people as I can not to grant GWB a third term!

[ProfessorDuh]

I remember the terrible sinking feeling I had that night when Florida was called for Gore, then not, then suddenly, strangely called for Bush (by the Fox News political desk director who was Bush's cousin, as it turns out.) Everything I feared that night came true, in spades.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

The estate tax affected people who were FAR less than billionaires.

[catfood]

Schwarzenegger rebranded himself by moving toward the center. McCain started right of center and has been moving farther right, so he should have a hard time appealing to moderates if the Dems can educate the electorate regarding what McCain's actual positions are.

For what it's worth, Schwarzenegger has it a little easier only having to worry about the voters in one state. The Republican base in California is not as rabidly conservative as the Republican base in other parts of the country. Also, despite being kind of an arrogant jerk, Schwarzenegger is a fairly intelligent guy. As time goes on, my estimation of McCain's intellect gets lower and lower.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Actually, the Republican base types in California, who I deal with all the time, are EXTRAORDINARILY RABID RIGHT-WINGERS.

>The Republican base in California is not as rabidly conservative as the Republican base in other parts of the country.

[Vermontah]

An interesting piece, and a topic that can be explored further. Two observations:

1. I thought the most telling detail was McCain not seeming "like a happy warrior." This was my biggest impression from his pathetic green speech the other day, that he didn't seem comfortable in his own pasty skin. He seemed like he was lying to himself, saying someone else's lines. I don't think he's happy being the nominee and being forced to hew to the party line and pander to the "base." I wonder if he'll even make it 'til November.
2. I was struck by the audience's reaction to his speech the other night. They didn't know when to clap. They have been so brainwashed over the past eight year that they believe all the Republican propaganda. So when McCain talks about how "false" it is to say that he'd be Bush's third term, they don't know what to do! They thought they were supposed to SUPPORT Bush!

So therein lies the fatal paradox for Sen. McCain and the Repugs. They've had to pledge blind loyalty to the Bush Republican "brand" for 8 long years, and now McCain is saying how different he'll be. They're damned if they do and damned if they don't. How can they support McCain when doing so contradicts everything they've been squealing about for the past 8 years?

How do you rebrand utter confusion?

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Thanks.

You are right. McCain is far less ebullient than he was 8 years ago.

And his audience in New Orleans the night of Obama's nomination victory was listless, relatively small, and disoriented.

[buckygreen]

The Republican "brand" is a long term loser because of their record. I defy anyone to credibly identify one single thing they have done for the common good in the last 8 years.

[catfood]

For the common good, they are returning the opposition party to power. Of course, their success in that regard is quite inadvertent

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

The Common Good. Isn't that my old pal Patricia Duff's group? ... :)

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Well, they would say, of course, that they have successfully protected America from further attack in the post-9/11 era. Don't underestimate that theme.

[SethBullock]

It does look like he's just going through the motions, doesn't it? It's kind of scary that he polls so close to Obama--even without thinking about a Bradley effect or whatever.

I'm not even sure the Republicans want to win this time around--I think they want a cleansing--but you'd think McCain himself would try and muster up a bit more enthusiasm in his own cause...

And what's with a a party's national nominee only getting 500 people for a speech? Obama could probably get 500 people to watch him sneeze...

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Funnily enough, the emcee claimed from the stage there were 1200 people there. I told him personally it looked like 400 to me. I added a few more with the kids in the back and the motorcyclists redlining their engines.

The truth is McCain, for all his longstanding fame, cannot draw a big crowd. I have never seen one in this cycle ...

>And what's with a a party's national nominee only getting 500 people for a speech? Obama could probably get 500 people to watch him sneeze...

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Well, that's because 25% of the Clinton folks currently say they'll vote for McCain. I don't expect anything like that in the end.

>It does look like he's just going through the motions, doesn't it? It's kind of scary that he polls so close to Obama--even without thinking about a Bradley effect or whatever.

[lisakaz2]

Apparently it IS hard for McCain. How has he distinguished himself from Bu$hie?

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Climate change.

[CitizenE]

The Mc Cain myth goes like this: Ann Coulter can't stand him and he realizes that global warming is not just stale popcorn in the Inohofe microwave, so he must be something other than the outrageously conservative, war mongering, pandering to the wealthy and religious right, borrow and spend, insurance industry shill, stack the court with more right wing extremist activist judges, know nothing he actuality is. Old Grin and Bear It aka Nails against the Blackboard, our Republican candidate for the Presidency of the United States. And the press thinks he's a cool guy, too.

[Cookie100]

CitizenE, brilliant discourse, bravo, I'm impressed. I couldn't have said it better myself! I'm cuting and pasting this and emailing it to every pundit in this fricking country.
How they sleep at night I do not know, this is all they're faults.

[HappyDae]

I agree that Cookie100 couldn't have said it better. Couldn't have spelled it better, either. [cuting]

My issue is with "right wing extremist activist judges" that CitizenE stated. Isn't that an oxymoron? What the conservatives advocate are judges that are NOT activists. I think disagreement is healthy, but you should at least understand the topic of disagreement.

Sen. McCain is very pro-Life. Why not take THAT issue to task, too? I'm both pro-Life and pro-Choice, but I want the unborn to HAVE a choice, too.

Happy Dae, senior genealogist.
http://www.ShoeStringGenealogy.com

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

All their fault because they aren't anti-Bush?

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

That is kind of amusing ...

[scire]

I
I think that he has never quite recovered from the rejection of his party in 2000. So he wants to make them like him. Anybody ever feel that way? You go out of your way to try to make the kids in the popular clique who make fun of you like you by kissing their asses? That's what he's doing. And even if it loses him votes he needs from the middle, he doesn't care because deep in his heart, he knows that the chances of him winning are so slim.

I mean, was that speech on Tuesday the most unenthusiastic and awkward delivery ever?

And he's wasted the last three months doing WHAT exactlly? Knowing that he was up against Obama of the dazzling smile, polished appearance, incredibly appealing logo, and smooth campaign machine, couldn't he have taken the time to get a professional internet operation going, couldn't he have taken the time to use some Crest Whitestrips? It's bad enough he's got all the big cards stacked against him: this is a change election, he represents the unpopular party, etc. etc. Does he have to make it harder on himself by not taking care of the stuff that's easy to fix?

My guess is he isn't trying hard enough because he knows it's already over.

So why not try to make at least his own party base like him?

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Oh, it isn't over. Obama can definitely lose this election.

>My guess is he isn't trying hard enough because he knows it's already over.

So why not try to make at least his own party base like him?

[Trittydi]

Sorry - it's not possible. As incompetent and egregiously selfish bunch as ever ran any country. These people are COMPLETELY incompetent and need to be jettisoned from public office -- and then prosecuted for International war crimes.
*

[Cookie100]

Thank you

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

This should be Obama's election. But if McCain finally figures out how to distance himself from Bush and hold onto the conservative base -- and maybe comes up with a relevant economic message, which he sure doesn't have now -- he could win.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

The issue is that McCain is not running the country, and the post-invasion course in Iraq was opposed by him.

>Sorry - it's not possible. As incompetent and egregiously selfish bunch as ever ran any country. These people are COMPLETELY incompetent and need to be jettisoned from public office -- and then prosecuted for International war crimes.