Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: Masterstroke, Mousetrap, Or Both?

Hillary Clinton's Democratic National Convention speech.

Potential Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Masterstroke or mousetrap? Or both?

And for whom?

The political world has been all aflutter for the better part of a week at the prospect -- initially portrayed as a done deal -- that Hillary Clinton will be Barack Obama's secretary of state. On the Republican side of the aisle, Henry Kissinger calls her "highly qualified" and Arnold Schwarzenegger dubs it "a great move." The Clintons' opponents in the Democratic Party have been restrained in their response. The media loves it, running with endless references to historian Doris Kearns Goodwin's very fine book on the Lincoln Cabinet, an Obama favorite, "Team of Rivals."

Clinton's "3 AM" TV ad attacking Obama.

Is it a masterstroke by President-elect Obama? A mousetrap for the Clintons? Is it even happening at all?

Hillary Clinton is clearly a highly intelligent and accomplished person. She's a formidable debater who prevailed in most of the primary encounters, except towards the end when Obama, who is still improving as a political leader, began getting the best of her. Like most major politicians, she is not an expert in geopolitics, she's a gifted generalist.

I was on many conference calls with Clinton during the primary season. On geopolitical matters, she generally deferred to her experts to provide the most substantive answers to questions, sometimes former Secretary of State Madeline Albright, more frequently the former NATO commander, General Wes Clark. (I found Clark to be the most impressive performer of anyone on all the Clinton conference calls.) After listening to Clark give his answers, Clinton would then agree and add a few other points. Or not.

At one point, Clinton showed that she did not have a firm grasp of the concept of nuclear deterrence. Then there was the time she thought that Pervez Musharraf was running in the elections for Pakistan's parliament. (At that point, he'd recently been re-elected president.) At other points, as is very well known, she attacked Obama for his willingness to talk with boogeymen, as well as his desire to more aggressively prosecute Al Qaeda in its Pakistani safe havens.

And her explanation for her Senate vote to authorize the invasion of Iraq was non-serious. She said she voted that way to further diplomacy. But it was already well known to the well-informed that President Bush and Vice President Cheney were determined to take down Saddam Hussein. That goal was at the heart of the neoconservative project which fatefully staffed the upper reaches of the administration.

This doesn't mean she can't be a good secretary of state. Hillary Clinton is a very formidable figure. If geopolitics becomes her area of focus, she'll study accordingly. And she would be working under President Obama, with the assistance of her husband, who was a generally good president himself.

That's what makes this look like a potential masterstroke for Obama, taking his once bitter rival and making her his ally and representative. It makes him look strong and confident. It also would make it virtually impossible for Hillary to challenge him in 2012, a prospect which looks very unlikely in any event. That is something Lyndon Johnson should have thought of when he refused to make Robert F. Kennedy his vice president in 1964.

While Hillary and Bill Clinton, especially Hillary, campaigned hard for Obama, they ultimately were not the keys to his victory. John McCain's inability to adequately respond to the financial crisis, the backfiring pick of Sarah Palin, and Obama's victories in all three presidential debates were much more determinative.

The move, which apparently has not actually been made, despite all the clamor about it, also looks like a mousetrap.

If Hillary withdraws from consideration, then Obama has made the effort he did not make around the vice presidency. And a shadow would be placed over her career in the Senate.

For, notwithstanding whatever reluctance she may have to make the move -- which some Clinton associates are talking up -- she and her husband are taking steps to make this happen.

Now that he's back in the country, the former president is submitting himself to Obama's vetting process. And he is saying that he would place future philanthropic and business dealings under the authority of the Obama Administration.

As the Wall Street Journal reported this morning, President Clinton has agreed to submit his future endeavours to strict ethics reviews by the White House counsel and the State Department's ethics office. Obama's White House counsel will be Greg Craig, a former Clinton Administration official who broke with the Clintons and leveled tough criticisms of them during the primary campaign.

Bill Clinton campaigning with Barack Obama in Florida.

Bill Clinton has agreed to publicly reveal all future contributors to the Clinton Foundation and the Clinton Global Initiative, something he flatly refused to do during the Democratic primaries. He's also agreed to publicly reveal "major" past contributors and has begun providing detailed information regarding his business dealings to Obama.

Bill Clinton has reportedly raised some $500 million for the Clinton Foundation, and another $15 billion or so for the Clinton Global Initiative. Both of which perform good works, in addition to the incalculable value they've afforded him from a public relations standpoint.

But those huge sums, especially for the Clinton Global Initiative, seem to come in large measure from foreign sources which may be very problematic. If they weren't, the Clintons would have revealed them during the Democratic primaries.

Bill Clinton is turning over a great deal of information about his operations to Barack Obama. In politics, that sort of knowledge is power.

Of course, the Clintons are using lawyers to pass on the information, to ensure confidentiality under attorney-client privilege. But once you know something, you can always figure out a way, if need be, to "reverse engineer" it over time through another source.

In any event, having new restrictions on his foundation fundraising would probably limit the scope of Clinton's activities in that realm. If Bill Clinton has fewer resources at his disposal, he's easier to control. At times during the Bush/Cheney era, Bill Clinton has been an alternate American presence on the global stage. Now superstar figures, such as Al Gore, are likely to find it easier to come more to the fore if Bill Clinton is diminished.

Now it may seem that having Hillary in the Cabinet is a mousetrap for Obama. After all, she's a global figure in her own right. Were she to break with him, it could be a major blow.

But Obama is clearly the much larger figure on the world stage. Not since John F. Kennedy has an American president been so intriguing to so many around the world, and so widely applauded. And JFK didn't enter office that way. Obama is still only president-elect.

In addition, were Hillary to become secretary of state, it would make her efforts to retire her big campaign debt even more problematic. It would also be tough for her to contemplate a break with President Obama knowing that she would then attempt to re-enter her political career amidst a major public controversy with a multi-million campaign debt hanging over her head. That would not exactly be a commanding political position, to say the least.

She would also have problems with a political base. Yes, she got 18 million votes in the Democratic primaries and caucuses. But many if not most of those folks have transferred their allegiance to Obama. She and her husband thought and worked long and hard to secure her seat in New York. Seats in the U.S. Senate, once relinquished, are not easy to get back.

Obama and Hillary Clinton at their first post-primary appearance, in Unity, New Hampshire.

Will Hillary Clinton be Barack Obama's secretary of state? The momentum seems to be in that direction. The Clintons must know that she is probably precluded from being president for at least another eight years. They also know, from their own experience, that new figures emerge.

While she is a power in the Senate, she is far from being the power in the Senate. Most Democratic senators who endorsed in the primaries picked Obama over her. And she would probably have to look to Obama for a franchise on top issues like health care, which Ted Kennedy -- one of Obama's most important backers -- wants as his crowning achievement.

If she's dependent on Obama in any event, and is not likely to be president, why not become secretary of state? It would be an extraordinary career capper at an extraordinary time in history.

Now we'll see if everything gets worked through.

You can also check things out on my site, New West Notes.

Comments

[asichii]

she will get it. all projections have come true thus far. this guarantees OBAMA 2nd term as this will be an extraordinarily united Democratic organization ever. Obama's appointments comprise some of the nation's best quailified men and women across political spectrum which will certainly accomplish a lot in just 4yrs. Repugs will find hard to topple.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Oh, she's got it, all right!

[WgS]

If President-elect, Barack Obama, is as intelligent as he seems to be, then a truly masterful move would be for him to sit down and swiftly dust off all those volumes of hard work Senator Hillary Clinton and former-president Bill Clinton put into their initial Universal Health Care campaign. If I remember correctly, they flat defeated in their efforts at that time despite their vision, dedication and thoroughness in working to develop a plan.

This should be a priority for US now and I can think of no better way to tap these two people's talents in a time of great and undeniable need.

[BottomLine2008]

The Clintons blew health care for a generation.

Tom Daschle is running health care for Obama.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Universal health care is coming back. The economy is just too scary otherwise for people.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

I think that Obama and Kennedy are working together on this now.

[Nan2008]

MAKE NO MISTAKE, Obama needs Hillary...PERIOD. The Obama supporters just don't get it, I hate to draw lines within our party but it has't to been done, when people bash her then the line is drawn, Hillary STILL HAS HER BASE IN TACT, IT'S THERE. We respect her and have grown to LOVE her deeply, she is HER OWN PERSON. And her husband, Bill, is NOT IN CONTROL OF HER, SHE IS HAS HER OWN BASE.

[MsDebate]

I'm with you Nan, Hillary is needed.

[BottomLine2008]

Obama does NOT need Hillary.

But she can be useful to Obama. If her husband can vet.

[oldindependent]

Forget divisions in the Dem. Party. I'm an independent and I respect Hillary. I voted for Obama. I would bet that Hillary would have too, had she not been running.

I hurt for her that it is still Bill who is holding her back, not intentionally, I'm Sure.

No more dynasties, please!

I'm about to turn 60. I watched my heroes gunned down in the 60s. I was a Kennedy Democrat before I could vote. After Bobby was murdered, I became an independent. Seemed to me that anyone I liked would be killed.

I don't know whether Obama really needs Hillary or not, but I do think it a wise move on his part.

godbless them all.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Obama doesn't NEED Hillary. But she is very useful. And removing the Clintons as antagonists is a great Machiavellian move on his part.

[CindyV]

This from Time online: As word trickled out that President-elect Barack Obama was considering Hillary Clinton for Secretary of State, Clinton was on the phone with the President of Pakistan. Asif Ali Zardari was calling with a long-overdue thank-you. Back in 1998, when Zardari's late wife Benazir Bhutto was powerless and out of favor with the United States, the then First Lady had received her at the White House, over the objections of both the State Department and the National Security Council. Bhutto eventually regained her influence, and before her assassination last December, became an important U.S. ally. But she had never forgotten that act of graciousness, Zardari told Clinton on Nov. 14. "To be treated with such respect was very important."

This is why Hillary would be a great Sec. of State.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Actually, no.

The Clintons are so tight with INDIA that it could be a problem with Pakistan ...

[dadw5boys]

We need Hillary in the Senate !!!!!!!!!!

[BottomLine2008]

To do what?

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Oh? Not so much.

[iceage7]

Wow. We live in the world of conspiracy. We nmake much ado about nothing. Take it for what it is. Obama just ask Hillary to be SOS. Period. No consipiracy.

[BottomLine2008]

Living on the surface. Must be nice ...

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

It's not a "conspiracy," it's deep politics on Obama's part.

[Territc]

I'd say this is a genius move by Obama. Either way the Clintons are between a rock and a hard place.

[dadw5boys]

No, they just say no that easy.

[BottomLine2008]

Maybe you need to read it again. lol

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Hardly.

Bill Clinton jumped through multiple hoops to get Hillary this nomination.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Exactly.

[miguelobrien]

And we could have Bill Richardson or Chuck Hagle instead? It puts me on my knees in tears.

Rewarding and promoting people for their evil deeds, especially war crimes has been the M.O. of the "leadership" of my generation. I went to Annapolis and became a civilian there, mainly because of people like John McCain. It was never America first for him and most like him and the ones I saw getting ahead in the military. He broke every regulation he could, but got away with it because he had "pull."

While that fire was raging on his carrier, he was in the officer's lounge, while one of his colleagues had bailed over and into the underdeck and started fighting the fire.

But back to Hillary; anyone who cares to find out the truth about her, can. But if you prefer to buy the phony image, you get what you deserve.

One other similarity: that smug smile, just like Sarah's, sucking in all that applause. They both look like little girls at some grade school pageant saying the rehearsed goody. I got sick of her during the first Clinton years [voted for him--anything but Bush], talking to us like we were third-graders. Slowly, ever so carefully, using that idiotic reversal of phrases: "They say no; I say yes."

Am I by myself?

[BottomLine2008]

Chuck Hagel isn't qualified to be Secretary of State.

[oldindependent]

He is actually more qualified than she is, but it not just a resume that matters. Hillary has a way about her. She is an older woman and for some reason Arab men find it much easier to deal with an older woman as equals.

'Tis a brilliant choice!

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Correct.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

You're saying Hillary Clinton is a war criminal. And you went to a service academy?

I thought I was tough on her ...

[miguelobrien]

If you research her history, as I have: her strange and privileged childhood with an even stranger demanding father, the letters from Wellesley, the testimony from troopers and friends in Arkansas, the many shady business dealings, the known political history, the serious profanity, the grasping, greedy service of ego to finally make Daddy happy, you will find many more similarities to Sarah Palin than differences.

One other striking resemblance, visible on this board, is that supporters of both resort to what I call female dirty tricks: attacks on the person rather than the argument; absolute terms like "always," "never," "everyone." These are non-words; think about it. They simply cannot be true.

Christopher Hitchens is as right as he is brilliant and people should find out the facts he knows [about Kissinger, for instance] rather than attack his person. The most important fact I know currently about Hillary Clinton is Henry Kissinger's raving endorsement. He is one of the major war criminals of our time, and personally prolonged the Vietnam fiasco for two years so that Nixon would be re-elected. How many Americans, not to mention Vietnamese, died in that two years?

Hillary Clinton is every bit as complicit in the murders resulting from this illegal, immoral war as Congoleeza Rice and it would be an ironic continuation of that, would it not? She belongs to Bushco and the Bilderberg Group, just as much as any of the others. Do your homework. What a travesty.

[BottomLine2008]

Well, one HUGE difference between Hillary and Palin is that Hillary is smart ... lol

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Oh.

No.

[clemdane]

Hillary's a lot more qualified to be SoS than Obama was to be president, so she certainly would do a great job. But of course she has to think about whether it's the best move for her and what she really wants. He'd be incredibly lucky to have her on board.

[justShareandbeNice]

I would say it this way:

Obama is gifted with an incredible aptitude for being President (and he does have an impressive resume as well).

Clinton isn't nearly gifted with aptitude to be SS, in my opinion. Wouldn't you like to see her much more knowledgable about geopolitical issues before saying she is highly qualified?

I do see your point, but I just don't buy it.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

And here I just went to the trouble of revealing my experience with Hillary's geopolitical ignorance in real time ...

[BillMelater]

I don't agree with the tone of this article. It implies that the Clintons are somehow out to undermine Obama and that Obama is seeking somehow to reign them in. I don't think this is the case at all.

http://billmel8er.wordpress.com

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

You are quite wrong about the former. Right about the latter.

OBVIOUSLY Obama is out to reign them in. He's smart.

[S1m0n]

If for any reason Hillary Clinton does not end up SoS, the entire world will think it's cuz the vetters found a smoking gun. Tee hee.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Correct.

[luvangelHussein330]

I'm going to say a major Moose trap

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Yers, but Hillary haters need to get over the equivalence with Palin.

[idyl]

Wow ... I turn on the news today and it is wall to wall coverage of Hillary and Bill. It's all Hillary, all the time on the cable networks. Is this really what we want the next four years to look like ... a baby boomarama hogging the spotlight and headlines. Can't these people learn to share the stage, play team basketball, it's all ego and self gratification. We had an election, we voted change, we elected the best person for the job. I want to hear from our President, his plans and policies, his speeches and smiling face, the media swooning over him and harping on his missteps. And we have to train some new folks, who is going to be the next generation of politicians leading the democratic party into the future. They had their time, we want ours. Deal with it.

[justShareandbeNice]

I did read somewhere that they acknowledged that they liked seeing all the press about this. About them, I mean. Ugh. If they were truly in this game to improve the country, wouldn't they want to see more important issues on all the TV channels?

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Blame the conventional media, not the Clintons, and get used to SOS Hillary.

[NicoloM]

Look out Bill, the mouse is about to wriggle out of the trap-- check out the article 1 constitutional debate going on Huffpost that because cabinet salaries were increased while she was in the senate she can't be SOS. Who said the Clintons aren't good lawyers too. And as Hillary says in the piece, she is undecided about SOS because she may be needed in the senate to help push through health care.....and to launch a presidential bid. She might just escape this trap and Obama lose his two'fer.

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Wrong.

Sorry ...

[William Bradley - Huffpost Blogger]

Hillary wasn't needed in the Senate for health care because Kennedy and Daschle didn't want her.

And she sure ain't running for president against Obama again ...