That Foreign Policy Debate We're Not Having
After easily winning its war with Georgia, Russia makes a big move into Latin America and the Caribbean with this tightening alliance with Venezuela.
Let's face it. This has been a disappointing campaign. Two very interesting candidates. Some of the biggest issues going, both within and without the US, and they have to blow up in our faces to get much attention. Then there's the ridiculous media coverage. Which brings us to tonight's foreign policy debate, which is finally back on.
Part of the problem is what it's called. Because foreign policy is not "foreign," it's geopolitics. The underlying essential dynamics of geopolitics deeply affect domestic politics. In the flows of energy and capital and products and people, in our military budget, in our environment, and in flash-point electoral politics. When there is debate, we end up debating symptoms -- illegal immigration from Mexico, a surge in Iraq -- rather than systems.
There's the question of fast-emerging China, which increasingly builds the products we buy, affecting our manufacturing base and balance of trade. And which increasingly finances our debt, giving us the money to buy our oil and making our financial system vulnerable in still more ways than we are grappling with today. At least China is getting some attention. Thanks to its hosting of the Olympics, of course.
Increasingly troubled Mexico has received little attention this year. Last year it was much in the news, when John McCain in his old party maverick mode worked with Ted Kennedy for a comprehensive immigration bill that conservative Republicans -- and not a few working class Democrats -- called an amnesty program. But the flow of Mexican immigrants, mostly illegal, across the US border, is only one aspect. Another is the rising power of drug cartels. Increasingly bold in attacking government forces, they may in the not distant future threaten the Mexican state itself.
Add to these matters and more two central geopolitical phenomena. One we've been grappling with in a front range manner since 9/11: Islamic extremism. The other which has suddenly snuck up on most people, though its's been clear to some of us for the past few years: Russian resurgence. They're both linked, in that Russia has a role to play in dealing with Islamic extremism.
How dangerous is Al Qaeda Prime, the cadre which hit us on 9/11, not the affiliate which sprung up in Iraq after the fall of Saddam? It's surprising to me that the Democrats haven't made Osama bin Laden more of an issue in this election. Through some bungled moves, he was allowed to slip away seven years ago.
Al Qaeda succeeded in permanently disrupting American life and in luring the US into a fateful entanglement in the heart of the Middle East. But it's failed in overturning Arab regimes and establishing a caliphate. It hasn't pulled off a major attack in a few years.
In rooting it out of Afghanistan, we took on major responsibilities in a country which has resisted outside military forces, including the British and Soviet empires, for centuries. The war there is not going well, and John McCain and President Bush are finally agreeing with Barack Obama that more troops and a different approach are needed. But what is enough? Is anything enough? Or do we need to find some reasonable Taliban? The Red Army couldn't handle the country with 120,000 of its troops. Of course, we were on the other side, funding "Charlie Wilson's war." (Bill Casey's, too.)
Are Persian Gulf economies even more powerful with the Wall Street crisis?
Bin Laden, along with top Taliban leaders, fled from Afghanistan to Pakistan, which has been harboring Al Qaeda and Taliban cadres for years, despite the billions we've given to Pakistan and claims otherwise. The world's only Islamic nuclear power is a tinderbox, with Islamic extremists knit throughout the society, as we've seen with the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and the instability of most institutions other than the army.
Like Afghanistan, Pakistan has gone south during the Bush/Cheney years. How do we pursue our goal of tamping down Islamic extremism and rooting out Al Qaeda without triggering a nightmare scenario?
John McCain nearly pulled out of tonight's debate on foreign policy and national security.
Obama has won the debate on the wisdom of going into Iraq. McCain has won the debate on the surge. Not surprisingly, as the much maligned-on-the-neocon right Iraq Study Group forecast, when you put strong military forces into an area, insurgents tend to melt away. But the surge has already hit its high-water mark and the situation is still somewhat fragile, and heavily dependent on other political factors.
Such as Iran. This nettlesome country was happy to see Saddam fall. That made Iran more powerful, especially inside Iraq, where it's been both very unhelpful and sometimes quite helpful to the US, as with Muqtada al-Sadr. If we take the extremist religious rhetoric of some of the mullahs seriously, and consider they might develop a nuclear weapon, Iran is very scary indeed. How many grains of salt, if any, should be applied?
Israel, which deeply fears and dislikes Iran, is in deep political turmoil. The Palestine question is as unsettled as ever. And the Russian resurgence is making it less clear that Israel is as staunch a US ally as always assumed.
The Russia-Georgia War cast many things in a new light. Georgia had a tight alliance with Israel, which provided it with weaponry and major military assistance. After the Russians quickly shattered the Georgian armed forces, Israel, one of the world's largest arms dealers, agreed with Russia that it would not provide the Georgians with new arms. And it is apparently staying out of the post-Soviet space around Russia entirely.
What does Russia want? That's one of the most important questions in the world. Naturally, it's not being posed in this presidential campaign.
When McCain's friend Mikheil Saakashvili kindly provided Vladimir Putin with the rationale he wanted to invade Georgia, more people became aware of how angry Russia is with the long-standing US policy of expanding NATO to the Russian border. Georgia was on track for NATO membership. The operative word being "was." The proposed anti-missile shield in the Czech Republic and Poland, ostensibly aimed at Iran, is seen as another anti-Russian move by the US. As is the move to extend NATO membership to Ukraine. The seemingly pro-US Ukrainian government is presently splitting apart, not that you're hearing anything about that.
Instead of being isolated for its actions in Georgia, as McCain -- "We are all Georgians now" -- forecast, Russia is becoming more expansive. It's beginning for the first time to participate with OPEC. Syria has offered it a permanent naval base in the Middle East. Iran wants its highest-end anti-aircraft systems. Israel is playing nice. And, in the old manner of turnabout-as-fair-play, in a message to Washington, it's getting very active again in Latin America. Tightening its alliance with fellow oil power Venezuela, sending a squadron of the Russian Navy to conduct maneuvers in the Caribbean for the first time since the Cold War.
And it's business as usual for Russia with Europe. The European Union met about the Georgian war, and issued a sharply-worded press release, imposing no sanctions. NATO huffed and puffed about dissolving the NATO-Russia Council. But NATO has no expeditionary forces. And the truth is that Germany and France are in business with Russia and don't want a confrontation.
Sarah Palin discusses Russia.
Russia can be unhelpful to the US, as we're seeing. Or it can be helpful, as it has been in Afghanistan, where Russian expertise and contacts with proxy forces helped take down the Taliban regime in the aftermath of 9/11. If Iran is to be blocked from having a real nuclear weapons program, Russian assistance is important, just as it is important that Russia not provide Iran with state-of-the-art defensive weapons systems.
After 9/11, Russia allowed US bases the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. The US for a time was making further inroads in this oil and gas-rich region. Now Russia is rolling that back. And only one US base remains, in mountainous Kyrgyzstan. A base that is important to the effort in Afghanistan.
Which candidate understands these issues and how they fit together? Besides Sarah Palin, of course. (A little joke.)
Which candidate has a strategy for America in this new world disorder?
We are getting very little idea from the campaign as it's being waged by the campaigns -- and covered by the news media.
And tonight, even though geopolitics is officially on the menu, with the epic financial crisis bearing down on us, I suspect we won't get much more of an idea than we've had.
Want to reply to a comment? Hint: Click "Reply" at the bottom of the comment; after being approved your comment will appear directly underneath the comment you replied to
US (14TH) ATTACK ON PAKISTAN (PART ONE)
ON WEDNESDAY (8TH) OCTOBER, The (JSOC/CIA/RSO/IC) Joint Special Operations Command, Central Intelligence Agency, Regional Senior Operative, In Charge, provoked incident number (14) fourteen in a sting of incidents dating back to September (1st). This was a single incident missile attack, upping the attack score card to (14) thirteen, attacks upon Pakistan by the (JSOC/CIA/RSO/IC) since the (1st) of September, (10) ten missile attacks, and (4) four commando unit incursions, with (3) three commando unit incursions repelled, and by repeating these operations the (JSOC/CIA/RSO/IC) is daily deepening the well of resentment against itself that no amount of aid or pious diplomatic platitudes will ever fill, within the region or Muslim world, creating Islamic Freedom Fighter organizations such as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, an umbrella organization for groups operating across Pakistan's northwest, with its headquarters located in the town of Makeen, near the Afghan boarder, for; Al Badar, Al-Qadea, "Fedayeen Al-Islam", Arabic for "Islam commandos", Chechens fighters, Europeans fighters, Hezb-i-Islami, (ISI) Inter-Service Intelligence Directorate assistance of these organizations, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, an extremist group linked to al-Qaida, Pukhtoon Tribesmen, Quetta Commandos and Taliban militants, Saudis fighters, Uzbeks fighters, and another extremist groups.
See William Bradley's Profile
And it was apparently a moderately effective attack.
MODERATELY EFFECTIVE TOTALLY ILLEGAL
Moderately effective and completely illegal both in International Law, and by the Charter of the United Nations, many citizens of the world community at large are calling upon Pakistan to take its case to the United Nations calling for a Censure of The United States but this will never be cover by the United States Propaganda Media.
NUTS IN THE NUT CRACKER (PART TWO)
The Problem is the getting his nuts out of the nut cracker, D.H. doesn"t want his nuts caught in a nut cracker, D. H. can"t have Iran on West with it have (WMD"s) Weapons of Mass Destruction the Bomb and a delivery system within (24) twenty-four months, and Islamic nation, Pakistan on the East and South with (WMD"s) and delivery systems, another Islamic nation, while his (100K) Field Army is caught between in the nut cracker in Afghanistan another Islamic nation. With the Soviet Russian Northern Air, Rail, and overland supply routes closed due to the Former Soviet Republic Georgia War, leaving only the Pakistani Southern supply routes open but not under D. H."s control.
The solution is simple make quiet Nonproliferation Disaster Nuclear deals with India, and promise them Kashmir, if they help when the (JSOC) Joint Special Operations Command undermines the government of Pakistan, which could allow terrorist groups to take control of Pakistanis (WMD"s) and the (UN) United Nations would then allow the invasion of Pakistan to prevent (WMD"s) from falling into the wrong hands. The Seventh Fleet would roll in, the Marines would land, D. H. would have his southern routes in his control and half of the nut-cracker would be gone. Now, it"s just on to Afghanistan and Iran caught in the nut cracker. India provides security in Pakistan, and the (US/MIC), continues its mission in Afghanistan.
See William Bradley's Profile
Who's DH?
(JSOC) ATTACKS PARKISTAN FOR (10TH) TIME (PART ONE)
On Tuesday, (30th) September, The (JSOC/CIA/RSO/IC) Joint Special Operations Command, Central Intelligence Agency, Regional Senior Operative, In Charge, provoked incident number (10) ten in a sting of incidents dating back to September (1st). This was the (10th) tenth attack upon Pakistan by the (JSOC/CIA/RSO/IC) since the (1st) of September, (7th) seventh missile attack, and (3) commando unit incursions, with (2) two commando unit incursions two, And by repeating these operations the (JSOC/CIA/RSO/IC) is daily deepening the well of resentment against itself that no amount of aid or pious diplomatic platitudes will ever fill, within the region or Muslim world, creating organizations such as Al Badar, Al-Qadea, "Fedayeen Al-Islam", Arabic for "Islam commandos", Chechens fighters, Europeans fighters, Hezb-i-Islami, (ISI) Inter-Service Intelligence Directorate, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, an extremist group linked to al-Qaida, Pukhtoon Tribesmen, Quetta Commandos and Taliban militants, Saudis fighters, Uzbeks fighters, and another extremist groups.
See William Bradley's Profile
The US is not attacking Pakistan.
You sound like John McCain.
The US is attacking Al Qaeda and Taliban cadre using Pakistan as a safe haven.
JOHN HAS TO BE CORRECT SOME TIME
(R-AR) US/Senator John Sydney McCain III, the (RNIP) Republican Nominee for the Imperial Presidency, has to be correct at least (1%) of the time. "The US is attacking Al Qaeda and Taliban cadre using Pakistan as a safe haven." Is that some sort of justification for an act of WAR? The attacks are beyond normal in the heat of pursuit limits International rules an agreement covering border incursion operations, must be reached, the general rules of engagement only allow combatant troops to chase in (hot pursuit) militants across the border of one national state into the sovereign territory of another when they are attacked first. Such incursion may only go about (6) six miles on the ground, under normal circumstances. Aircraft may only violate the territorial sovereignty air space up to by not over (10) aero nautical miles into the territorial sovereignty air space. The hot pursuit must be reported to the nation whose sovereignty is being violated as rapidly as possible for a request of permission to conduct the pursuit or explain its military over-riding necessity.
(JSOC) ATTACKS PAKISTAN FOR (10TH) TIME (PART TWO)
Pakistan's most senior Taliban leader, Beitullah Mehsud, was killed along with at least (5) five others, and (6) others wounded, in the (7th) Missile Attack by (2) two drones, one a surveillance the other a weapons platform air to surface missile firing drone under firing control of the (JSOC/CIA/RSO/IC) since September the (1st) upon the territory of Pakistan, once again the attack was made into Northern Waziristan, on Tuesday at midnight near the town of Mir Ali. Mehsud was the head of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, an umbrella organization for groups operating across Pakistan's northwest, with its headquarters located in the town of Makeen, near the Afghan boarder.
(JSOC) ATTACKS PAKISTAN FOR (10TH) TIME (END PART)
Officials have accused Mehsud of being behind a wave of suicide attacks in Pakistan since the middle of last year. The most recent the Saturday (20th) September, Hotel Marriott in Islamabad "Fedayeen Al-Islam", Arabic for "Islam commandos" one of the groups under the umbrella organization of theTehrik-e-Taliban, claimed responsibility for the (20th) of September, Saturday night truck bombing attack upon the heavily guarded luxury hotel Marriott in Islamabad which had been the target of a previous attempted attack, killing (53) fifty-three, among the dead were the Czech ambassador and two (CIA) Central Intelligence Agency Operatives, with between (250-270), wounded, including (21) foreign nationals, (2) Americans, (4) Britons, (4) Germans, and (1) each from, Afghanistan, Denmark, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia.
Many Pakistani officials and analysts had taught and expect the bombing investigation to lead to the border regions. But Amir Mohammad, an aide to prominent Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud, said his chief was not involved and shared the nation's grief. Mehsud was blamed by the last government for a suicide attack that killed Zardari's wife, the pro-U.S. politician Benazir Bhutto. Mehsud rejected the accusation, along with the suicide attack that killed Zardari's wife, the pro-U.S. politician Benazir Bhutto.
BEFORE MY PANTS HIT THE SEAT (END PART)
K-Street would be on notice that the party is over, Wall St., would come to understand that they answer to THE STATE, and THE STATE, answers to THE PEOPLE. There will not be Socialism for the Wall St., Fat-Cats and Poverty on Main St.
Pelosi and Reed, I will do everything in my power to see that you have had your last years in public office ever. Term Limits on time in Office (2) two terms and your out, and RECALL, will be in, if a state what"s you out, they can RECALL you. Mandatory Retirement, at age (65) six-five from public office. Boys and Girls we will have accountability to THE PEOPLE, you work for them not they work for you, and the good of K-Street and Wall St.
See William Bradley's Profile
Of course Wall Street risk is being socialized.
SO BE IT!
But, the (DNIP) Democratic Nominee for the Imperial Presidency, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid should now admit the fact that the Republic of The United States of America is now going Socialist, it is a valid system of Government the Nazis Government was The German Nationalist SOCIALIST Party. Admit the fact that John Locke and Thomas Jefferson were wrong and Plato and Nietzsche were correct.
Come out of the closet and admit you want Affirmative Action Socialism, thru Income Redistribution, and Affirmative Action with and ending of the Capitalist and Republic System of Government, just admit its failure and press for a new (21st) Century Socialist System of Government.
CARMEN SAN DIEGO WHERE IN THE WORLD IS D.H.PETRAEUS ? (PART ONE)
So, were Where is Gen. David H. "Betray US" Petraeus, why of course traveling thru the (NATO) North Atlantic Treaty Organization membership countries selling his (10+++) ten year, plus, plus, plus existential ( a philosophical movement of the (20th) century, that stresses the individual"s position as a self-determining agent responsible for their own choices), War of Rapture. So, "Betray US" is trying to see if (NATO) of its own free will, is willing too follow him down the yellow brick road to what?
See William Bradley's Profile
I believe he is trying to gin up support for the Afghan operation.
Suggestions for the Surge.
Play hardball with E. European countries. Slogan: "No troops for A-stan, no help against Russia"
Poland 40,000 fighting troops+ support
Ukraine 40, 000 troops+ support.
3 Baltic countries: 5, 000 each
Georgia: 10,000-- mountain savvy soldiers! A bit weak in the knees. But it'll have to do.
Czech: 10,000
Hungary: 5,000
Finland-- 10,000 good troops!
Swedish-- 5,000.
Hire some private Soviet A-stan spetsnaz and GRU veterans.
Extensive mountain warfare training.
(source: magister ludi)
See William Bradley's Profile
Enough of the "Move On" rhetoric, please, from my old adverstising colleague Bill Zimmerman ..
WHO READ THIS STUFF ANYWAY?
Just who is reading your column almost daily, you me and Bill Zimmerman, and as smart has he use to be growning up, he should know better. We could write E-mails for all the good it does, or like we knew most officers ended up in the Pentagon doing, having a dull pencil given to each other and writting orders to another idiot, who had a dull pencil. Who cares? Who reads this stuff? And, if they do, are we changing anyone from a computer potatoes to a concerned citizen? YA! like that's going to happen.
CARMEN SAN DIEGO WHERE IN THE WORLD IS D. H. PETRAEUS? (END PART)
And the Southern route now under attack by joint forces of Al Badar, Al-Qadea, "Fedayeen Al-Islam", Arabic for "Islam commandos", Hezb-i-Islami,, Pukhtoon Tribesmen and Taliban militants, and another extremist group involved in reprisal attacks in neighboring Afghanistan, stopping the logistics flow through Pakistan, and with many of its own, Pakistani (ISI) Inter-Service Intelligence Directorate, tied at the hip with extremist groups stopping the very badly needed intelligence. giving the government of Pakistan two wars in opposition to each other, a bi-polar war, the supply route war, and the Northern, war of territorial sovereignty against those being supplied the facilitate (JSOC/CIA/SRO/IC) the Joint Special Operations/ Central Intelligence Agency/ Senior Regional Operative/ In Charge based at Bagrum Air force base in Afghanistan and the (NATO/ISAF) The North Atlantic Treaty Organization/ International Security Assistance Force, crusaders.
And, the (US/MIC) really thinks that Gen. David H. "Betray US" Petraeus, is going to be able to sell, (NATO), and or any European ally on the long-term commitments, cost, and military personnel, of an Existential Rapture War, looks like a Cliff Hanger to me, wait until the next episode, The Afghanistan Review.
See William Bradley's Profile
Al Bader.
What are you talking about?
LIST OF BAD BOYS!
Al Badar (If There was one, you better bet there are more) , Al-Qadea, "Fedayeen Al-Islam", Arabic for "Islam commandos", Hezb-i-Islami, (ISI) Inter-Service Intelligence Directorate(LOSE LIPS SHIK SHIPS) ,Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, an extremist group linked to al-Qaida, Pukhtoon Tribesmen and Taliban militants, and another extremist group involved in cross boarder reprisal attacks in between Afghanistan and Pakistan against the (JSOC/CIA/SRO/IC) Joint Special Operations Command/Senior Regional Operative/In Charge Afghanistan stationed in Bagrum Air Force Base and (NATO/ISAF) The North Atlantic Treaty Organization/ International Security Assistance Force,
On Friday (12th) September the (JSOC) using missile firing drone aircraft fired (2) missiles on a house near at a former government school where suspected fighters and their families were living in Tul Khail village, 5km east of. Miran Shah, North Waziristan, Pakistan, the main town in the tribal region. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar was an Afghanistan leader of the (Al Badar), who had fought against Soviet Russian occupation in the 1980s and against the Taliban in the 1990s. He reportedly allied with the deposed group Al Badar after the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, demanding the withdrawal of foreign forces, along with other members of that group. (10) Others were injured.
I showed you mine, now you show me yours!
ARAB VS ISRAELI GEO-ECONOMICS (PART ONE)
In geo-economic-politico-military affairs, Israel, which has its own long-standing and complex relationship with Moscow, has agreed to stop providing arms to Georgia. Syria has offered a permanent port, which would place Russian naval forces in the Middle East.
In an effort to buttress their position and give strength to Israeli representatives sent to Moscow for discussions with Russian Deputy Chief of Staff Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn in an effort to persuade Russia to stop the approval and sale of advanced Soviet Russian weaponry to Iran, selling their best anti-aircraft systems the sophisticated SAM-300 to Iran making Iran virtually invulnerable to attack from Israel or the (US) And, let us not forget much closer problems to Israel then Iran, like Hamas and Hezbollah And, the placement of task force to a naval base in Syria with an aircraft carrier and subs to the Mediterranean, all the better to bollix up (US) strategy in the Middle East, but to maintain the present status quo, are using Stock Market Warfare as a sword to make their point.
ARAB VS ISRAELI GEO-ECONOMICS (END PART)
The Russians have been put pretty much at the top of the list of risky markets, at a time when investors world-wide are shifting out of emerging markets into assets perceived to be less risk-laden, the Israelis are using large forced selling tactics causing observed large capital outflows, dropping the ruble (8%) of its value vs. the dollar between (Aug. 8th- Sept 16th).
The Arab Nations responded with there own attack upon Wall St., and proved beyond a shadow of a doubt just who had more economic clot, dropping Wall St., not only to its knees but shifting the balance of economic power out of the United States Military Industrial Complex, but to the European Common Market and Middle East Markets as the Pox American Era Ends.