TV Ad Wars: Global O v. Latin Mac
John McCain's problematic new TV ad for Latino voters, "God's Children," with Spanish language captioning.
John McCain and Barack Obama both have new TV ads running. And each has at least one ad which is strange, in its own way. Though Obama has a brand new ad starting Thursday which works better than the similar ad he launched early in the week.
McCain has a problematic new ad for Latino voters. It won't work. And he was already far behind where Team McCain thought he'd be with Latinos a few months ago.
Meanwhile, Obama's new ad at the start of the week on geopolitics/national security was a bit of a misfire, as it were. But his new ad, starting on Thursday, properly positions his upcoming trip to the Middle East and Europe.
First to McCain. He's making a push for the Latino vote, having spoken Monday at the National Council of La Raza convention in San Diego. He's just started running a new TV ad in Mountain West states targeting Latino voters. Which barely has any Latinos in it.
It plays off the main ad he has running now in 11 battleground states, which focuses on his wartime heroism.
"My friends, I want you the next time you're down in Washington, D.C., to go to the Vietnam War Memorial and look at the names engraved in black granite," McCain says, using footage from an early GOP debate. "You'll find a whole lot of Hispanic names."When you go to Iraq or Afghanistan today, you're going to see a whole lot of people who are of Hispanic background. You're even going to meet some of the few thousand that are still green card holders who are not even citizens of this country, who love this country so much that they're willing to risk their lives in its service in order to accelerate their path to citizenship and enjoy the bountiful, blessed nation."
"So let's from time to time remember that these are God's children. They must come into country legally, but they have enriched our culture and our nation as every generation of immigrants before them."
The people you see in the ad are almost all white. That's because what McCain is saying is lifted from earlier Republican debate footage. McCain was hammered last year by the Republican right for the comprehensive immigration bill he authored with Ted Kennedy.
What McCain doesn't say in the ad -- and what he didn't say in his speech to La Raza on Monday -- is that he essentially disavowed the bill last year, saying he wouldn't vote for his own bill.
I don't think that's too well known amongst Latino voters.
And his prospects with them aren't great to begin with, though Team McCain has had high hopes.
The thinking was that McCain wins the Latino vote in Arizona and has credibility from his work on the immigration issue. And that Obama was weak with Latino voters, being generally swept by Hillary Clinton in the primaries. At least part of the theory was based on supposed antipathy between Latinos and African Americans.
Obama's supposed weakness with Latinos became the conventional wisdom. Turns out the conventional wisdom is wrong.
Obama's "weakness" with Latinos was nothing of the sort. It was Clinton's strength with Latinos, bolstered by campaigning for her by United Farm Workers co-founder Dolores Huerta, LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and former California Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, Hillary's national campaign co-chair who told me that, while he likes McCain's ad and his effort, it won't trump Democratic efforts in "a year that is about change."
McCain had hoped to make a run at California, where Arnold Schwarzenegger's backing helped him clinch the Republican nomination in February by knocking Mitt Romney out of the race. But that's not happening, as Obama has a huge lead in the Golden State, 54% to 30%. And Obama has an even bigger lead with Latino voters, 64% to 21%.
In battleground state Colorado, where a big part of the presidency is to be won, Obama's four-point lead is built on a big 58% to 34% edge amongst Latinos.
And nationally, NBC's poll showed Obama with a huge lead over McCain with Latino voters, 62% to 28%. Considering that George W. Bush got over 40% of the Latino vote in 2004 against John Kerry, it looks like the candidate with a Latino problem is not Obama, but McCain.
Instead of running an ad focusing on the Vietnam War Memorial, McCain might more profitably try to explain why his ideas on education and economic stimulus are better for Latino voters than those of Obama.
Barack Obama's somewhat problematic TV ad on national security from early this week, emphasizing bipartisanship.
For his part, Obama put up a new TV ad early this week.
Here's the script:
BO at town hall: We are a beacon of light around the world. At least that's what we can be again. That's what we should be again.BO in interview: The single most important national security threat that we face...
BO VO:...is nuclear weapons falling into the hands of terrorists.
BO VO: What I did was reach out to Senator Dick Lugar, a Republican, to help lock down loose nuclear weapons.
BO in interview: We have to lead the entire world to reduce that threat.
BO at town hall: We can restore America's leadership in the world.
BO VO: I'm Barack Obama, and I approve this message.
Unlike his first two ads, this one seemed off the main course of his campaign.
It's not a bad ad, emphasizing his bipartisan action in the face of criticism from Republicans that his bipartisanship/post-partisanship is all rhetorical. But it's not on the central issues of concern on national security. The wildly expensive -- in blood, treasure, and credibility -- morass in Iraq. The sliding situation in Afghanistan, six-and-a-half years after the ready ouster of the Taliban regime that harbored the actual attackers of America on 9/11. And the disastrous situation in Pakistan, where the Republican administration has looked the other way while the real cadre of Al Qaeda -- not the affiliate in Iraq grown and empowered by the fall of Saddam -- reconstituted itself.
The Obama ad at the beginning of the week was part of a swift pivot to prepare for the senator's upcoming trips to the Middle East and Europe. But it lacked the larger frame needed to position him as a credible commander-in-chief.
So now he has another new ad, going on the air on Thursday, which provides that needed frame.
And a new slogan, "New Leadership For A Changing World."
Here's the script.
Announcer: 40 years ago it was missile silos and the Cold War.Today, it's cyber attacks...loose nukes...oil money funding terrorism.
Barack Obama understands our changing world.
On the Foreign Relations Committee, he co-sponsored a law to lock down loose nuclear weapons.
As president, he'll rebuild our alliances to take out terrorist networks...
And fast-track alternatives so we stop spending billions on oil from hostile nations.
New leadership for a changing world.
Obama VO: I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message.
Unlike the ad early this week, this brand new ad properly positions Obama's upcoming trip to Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel, Jordan, Germany, France, and the UK.
He's not going as a naif on a fact-finding trip. He's going to learn, yes, but also, in this view, to teach. That he intends to bring change to America, and to America's relations with the larger world of which it is a part. That he understands how the world has changed better than those who have brought the past to this pass.
A much more effective tack.
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"But it's not on the central issues of concern on national security. The wildly expensive [wars...]"
For the average voter, ending the war is only a vague notion. They are not committed anti-war types. Obama doesn't need to convince them that he's anti-war; that's already obvious. He needs to bolster his image on national security - i.e. convince Americans that he can "keep them safe" from another terrorist attack. And that's what this ad is trying to do.
Running an ad making it even more clear that he doesn't support the Iraq war would be a total waste of resources. Your analysis is way off.
People don't know much about Obama.
See William Bradley's Profile
All too true.
i think you're wrong. getting out of iraq is wildly popular. our economy as it is cannot sustain it.
That's right.
See William Bradley's Profile
Iraq is regarded by well over 60% of voters as a mistake.
See William Bradley's Profile
As I mentioned a bit later in the piece, Obama now has a new TV ad, starting today, which addresses the concerns I was raising about better framing of the issues. And as you can see, I was not suggesting an ad strictly on the Iraq War.
Ending the war isn't a vague notion. It's what most voters want.
See William Bradley's Profile
That is what most polls show, for better or worse.
The ad makes the point that an overwhelming number of fatalities in war are born by minorities and people of color.
Yeah I found the subtext of the ad amusing in a depressing way. It pretty much states what everyone really knows: most people join the military for financial or other reasons, not out of a sense of duty to their country. (Nevermind the fact that that "sense of duty" is pounded into their heads relentlessly from the moment they arrive so that after they get out they've been transformed into "patriots"
See William Bradley's Profile
As a veteran myself, I don't think your opinion is accurate.
Which one?
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You are referring to the McCain ad?
That's a sad truism.
Gotta give Mac credit for going where no Rep has gone before... What's the worst that's gonna happen, they STILL won't vote for him?
Kudos for at least trying. Its not going to get my vote, but its a smart move.
"nothing ventured, nothing gained"
Bush got 43% of the Latino vote. Whaddya talking about?
shewl:Gotta give Mac credit for going where no Rep has gone before... What's the worst that's gonna happen, they STILL won't vote for him?
See William Bradley's Profile
Republicans always try for the Latino vote.
Team Obama needs to hammer home the fact that McBush has backtracked on his immigration bill and now wouldn't even vote for it. He should mention that all the time with Latino voters and get McBush's Latino poll numbers down in the single digits.
That right.
See William Bradley's Profile
They may get to that.
I still feel he should use his own voice and not the VO.
See William Bradley's Profile
Why do you think that? A narrator can say things about the candidate that he or she can't.
The one thing that makes McCain's ad effective is the fact that Tancredo, who is the most shining example of how xenophobic, creepy and evil the GOP has become, looks like he's about to puke listening to McCain talk. Unfortunately for JM, only those latinos like myself who have been paying close attention to the election from the beginning know who is Tancredo. And if you are a latino who has been paying attention, there is no way in hell you are voting for anyone but Obama.
That's true. But real inside. Nobody knows who Tom Tancredo is. And we're all the better for it!
See William Bradley's Profile
It's very inside baseball. That's one of the things that surprised me about the ad.
See William Bradley's Profile
Tancredo proved, as you point out, to be very much an unknown.
Probably because a bigoted, xenophobic Republican is hardly remarkable.
McCain is dead in California.
Dead, dead, DEAD.
When will these crazy Republicans who didn't bother to get born as muscle-bound Austrians admit the truth?!
See William Bradley's Profile
ROTFL
Yea, McCain is pretty much dead on the whole contiguous west coast I'd say. I have yet to run into anyone in Oregon that gives this guy even a thought! What I do hear a lot about is Obama.
Obama's ad wasn't too bad, but I'm really looking forward to seeing the new one next Thursday. Thanks for the heads up Bradley!
I saw Obama is ahead by 9 in Oregon. That's good, but why so close?
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Well, McCain isn't all that far behind in Oregon, so perhaps your acquaintanceship is not quite so broad as you suppose ... :)
OK.
Obama's really new like tomorrow new ad sounds much better.
Will you show it here when it's out?
See William Bradley's Profile
Yes.
Where is it?
OK.
Obama's ad with Dick Lugar.
Sucks.
What is this?
"The Peacemaker" was a Clooney flick with that new redhead actress Nicole Kidman.
In 1997.
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The Peacemaker was great. Well, not great.
Clooney as SF colonel. Kidman as nuclear scientist. I bought it ... :)
OK.
McCain's "Latin" ad sucks.
All white people.
All OLD white people.
What is up with that?
See William Bradley's Profile
There's a lot happening in these campaigns. Sometimes you miss things.
Indeed. Apparently, McCain's newfound tool for persuasion is naive, poorly written, and condescending to the bone: Who the hell wrote that ad, anyhow?
Was that "Team" McCain?
See William Bradley's Profile
Not sure. Fred Davis is the lead media consultant following the departure of Mark McKinnon, the Bush media guru who doesn't want to work against Obama.
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