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Zach Friend

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Romney's Veep Choice: 'I'm Going to Lose'

Posted: 08/11/2012 3:12 pm

Nothing spells fear more than irrationality.

And there is nothing safe or rational about choosing Paul Ryan as your running mate.

Historically, a vice presidential selection has little impact on the outcome of a race. But it does give you a significant window into the thinking of a campaign.

And Mitt Romney's choice of Paul Ryan says one thing: "I'm going to lose."

Over the last few months the Romney campaign has spent thousands of hours doing research, focus groups, polls, meeting with big donors on the ski slopes of Utah and vetting tax returns down to the dollar.

All of those things matter.

But the ultimate determinate of a vice presidential candidate is the fear of the presidential nominee.

The choice, in other words, shows you what Romney's greatest fear is.

In this case, Romney knows something that many pollsters have been saying for weeks: his campaign support is a mile wide and an inch deep.

Choosing Ryan shows Romney fears he is going to lose.

How did this happen?

How does someone that is successful in business and politics cave into fear when the moment matters most?

I suppose we could ask John McCain.

But the easier answer is to simply look at Romney's inability to create a positive narrative about himself.

He has inadvertently succeeded in getting his message out about being a for-something-before-against-something candidate; an "evolving" candidate.

The consummate politician.

In fact, everything he communicates about his campaign is allowing an impossible-to-shake narrative take hold -- an election ender -- that he has no core and will say or do anything to get elected.

So he chose Paul Ryan.

Like him or not, you know where Paul Ryan stands.

But the narrative about Romney is too far down the road and he knows it.

The only thing Romney had was a "game changer" - a Sarah Palin.

A losing choice.

Elections are often won and lost on narratives. Successful narratives emotionally connect with and engage people, they need characters, a plot and a solution to the problem.

Romney has none of these things.

The 2004 election was defined, and won, by the early establishment of Senator Kerry's narrative. In fact, defining Kerry's narrative helped President Bush overcome unpopular domestic and international policies -- not to mention remarkably low poll numbers.

In 2008, Obama's narrative was emotional and obvious. People were engaged and the solution was a new direction -- change.

And as the 2012 election recaps are written we can look back at when Romney lost the narrative. And we can see when he told us he had - the day he selected Paul Ryan.

 

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Nothing spells fear more than irrationality. And there is nothing safe or rational about choosing Paul Ryan as your running mate. Historically, a vice presidential selection has little impact on t...
Nothing spells fear more than irrationality. And there is nothing safe or rational about choosing Paul Ryan as your running mate. Historically, a vice presidential selection has little impact on t...
 
 
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04:04 PM on 08/13/2012
Amen!
01:09 AM on 08/13/2012
Ryan's wife is a tax attorney. That's a bonus.
07:47 PM on 08/12/2012
Exactly as I said when John McCain chose Sarah Palin-- they just handed the election over to Obama.
Great--
Now, when are people going to wake up and get the Republicans OUT OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES. The Ryan Bill, that every Republican voted for, dessimates the middle class and the needy while they give even more money to the rich!! They want to END Medicare. They"ll give us "vouchers" -- notice they havent said a word about how much those"vouchers" will be??

Wake up people !

How many more warnings do we need?
Vote out your Republican Representative . They are ruining this country .
02:38 PM on 08/12/2012
A strong candidate can be made to look stronger and more confident with a strong VP choice, or at least not diminished by a neutral choice.
Biden was pretty neutral, as an experienced insider who would not, and could not out shine Obama. Biden is a very strong team player and was a very wise choice.

A weak candidate will not look stronger by picking a strong VP, they may look wise, but not stronger.

A weak candidate is only made to look weaker by a weak choice. Choosing an ideologue like Ryan just makes it look like Mitt is afraid of loosing votes among those who would "never vote for a Democrat." Ryan is not likely to gain many votes and may in fact loose independent voters and those retirees who need medicare and social security to survive.

Romney is trying to protect himself from his own party
For Pete's sake. That is pathetic. It is exactly what McCain did.

Also too, the Republicans now have a ticket with no experience in the military and no experience in foreign or even domestic affairs.

The Romney ticket's only experience is in wealth accumulation for the few.
12:15 PM on 08/12/2012
Most of the comments lack any intelligence....I bet the average person making these stupid comments did not understand history when in high school, were and are probably high on something, and could not get through college...that is why their thought content and how they express themselves is lacking in comprehensive thought.
01:07 AM on 08/13/2012
Huh?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
raker
09:27 AM on 08/12/2012
I would have bet that Romney would choose a Latino/a as a running mate, to lock up Florida and then be a receding non-presence if elected.

With Paul Ryan, I think the moneymen behind the Republicans see that Romney is likely to lose, and so decided why not overreach for their ultimate goal, killing Social Security and Medicare—or as CBS News teabagger Jan Crawford puts it, "Medicare reform for people under age 55."

If the Republicans are going down anyway, they're going down with their freak flag flying. But the Democrats are expert at losing to the worst imaginable candidates. This time, the threat from the Republicans of the end of Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, Planned Parenthood, and maybe even access to birth control ought to be enough to win easily, but Democrats to have a talent for blowing it.
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Dem girl2012
Resistance is futile
09:13 AM on 08/12/2012
I am hoping the choice of Ryan will motivate Dems (scare them !) and that this will help our House and Senate Candidates. We must take back the house and strengthen the Senate to accomplish anything.

The TP has taken over the Republican party. It won't get any easier to deal with them.
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Leper
Giving the finger to intolerance
04:41 PM on 08/12/2012
Sadly, that doesn't appear to be happening right now.
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Dem girl2012
Resistance is futile
09:10 AM on 08/12/2012
Romney tried to make this election a referendum on Obama and failed. Singing America the Beautiful doesn't cut it with most people. The Obama team defined him and that was that. Choosing Ryan makes it a "choice" election with bright red lines between the 2 sides.

I can think of nobody other than perhaps Cantor who would serve as a better GOTV motivator for the left than Ryan.
Demi Rites
Be good or go home.
09:03 AM on 08/12/2012
And now everyone knows why Romney won't show us his taxes, not because there is anything illegal in them, but because he wants to maintain his privacy for when he returns to the business of vulture economics after he loses the election.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Tony Rochon
Trying to fly under the radar
08:18 AM on 08/12/2012
Paul Ryan was chosen to keep the money flowing in from the Randians. Period.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
gransview
"Reality is just a collective hunch" L Tomlin
07:35 AM on 08/12/2012
I think Mitt chose Ryan so that he would have someone to blame for his loss--other than himself!
09:15 AM on 08/12/2012
No! he chose Ryan because Ryan is a neo Nazi and he is a flip again Fascist.Don't believe me just check both of their positions on just about every social issue....and that budget.
02:45 PM on 08/12/2012
It does have the appearance of a self inflicted wound, but I doubt it was consciously inflicted.

Mitt just does not have experience outside the board room, the real world is beyond his understanding. He chose the guy who would look good to the Board members.

McCain also out of touch with normal people, choose someone he though would appeal to "common" voters. He was terribly wrong, and I suspect Romney has repeated that scenario.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
gransview
"Reality is just a collective hunch" L Tomlin
07:36 PM on 08/12/2012
It sure has a familiar ring to it. :))
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ClevelandLib
Unless
07:33 AM on 08/12/2012
Romney chose a far right wing extremist whose claim to fame is trying to pass abortion bans that don't include life/health/rape/incest exceptions and dismantling Medicare. Ryan is out of step with 80% of the nation. If there is somebody less likable than Romney, it's Ryan.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Carl Caroli
I just don't understand people
07:31 AM on 08/12/2012
It's almost to the point where I think Mitt is running for president just for the tax deductions next year.
07:28 AM on 08/12/2012
It's written that making the choice for running mate is the first big decision of the nominee. Some former candiates have chosen well, others not. But this is the first time I can remember where a candidate didn't even make the choice - being told what his choice would be by those in the money and on the far right of the party. Think of it - a presidential candidate who doesn't even have the courage or strength to make his own decision - who does what his handler's tell him. That's one weak candidate - and possibly one even weaker president.
01:44 AM on 08/12/2012
I find your article's structure fascinating.

Like how every thought gets its own little line.

Keeps the information is small, digestible chunks.

Kind of like a list, but without the numbers.

It's like Larry King's old column, but less coherent.

And what's up with shallots, anyways? Aren't they just sweet, small, expensive onions?

Oops, sorry, lost my train of thought.